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2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Has the Recent Unrest in The US Led You to Change Your Mind on Who You'll Vote For?(Any Position)

Yes
10
7%
No
76
56%
I Don't Know
3
2%
I Can't Vote(too young/outside the US
47
35%
 
Total votes : 136

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Idzequitch
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Postby Idzequitch » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm

Just an interesting anecdote, at least for me personally. My father, who has voted Republican in every election since Reagan, has just informed me that he may not vote for Trump. I know he's just one guy, but it makes me wonder if Trump might really be starting to lose that iron grip on older white evangelicals.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:20 pm

Idzequitch wrote:Just an interesting anecdote, at least for me personally. My father, who has voted Republican in every election since Reagan, has just informed me that he may not vote for Trump. I know he's just one guy, but it makes me wonder if Trump might really be starting to lose that iron grip on older white evangelicals.

I don't think hes alone.

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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:33 pm

Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
Cisairse wrote:
They will cry fraud no matter what.


I'm worried if he loses he'll refuse to step down, and what might come of that.


If, after Biden is inaugurated, he refuses to leave the WH he'll just get arrested like any other civilian.

Major-Tom wrote:
Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
I'm worried if he loses he'll refuse to step down, and what might come of that.


That's my biggest fear.

And to all those saying "WeLL thEre's A ProCEss ThaT pReVeNts It," have you seen the dismantling of the checks and balances that supposedly protect our democracy?


The military is the one group so far that has mostly had no issues pushing back against him.

The Secret Service will not betray their nation, you can be mostly sure of that.
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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:37 pm

Cisairse wrote:Donald Trump's approval rating is now 41.4%, the lowest it has been since November 20.

Notably, an approval rating of 41.4% and a disapproval rating of 54.3% is very close to (within MOE) that CNN poll this morning that showed Biden as 14 points above Trump. This suggestions that, unlike Hillary Clinton, Biden is successfully capturing virtually all of the non-Trump votes.


Trump's approval rating has now fallen to 41.1%, the lowest since November 13. I expect it to continue to fall point-by-point as recent polls showing a very low approval rating stop being ignored as outliers by the normalization algorithm.
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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:38 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
I'm worried if he loses he'll refuse to step down, and what might come of that.


That's my biggest fear.

And to all those saying "WeLL thEre's A ProCEss ThaT pReVeNts It," have you seen the dismantling of the checks and balances that supposedly protect our democracy?


There might be a system that prevents it, but it's untested since we've never had a testy transfer of power. Unless you consider the South's reaction to Lincoln, but then again even the Confederates didn't deny he won.
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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:39 pm

Cisairse wrote:
Cisairse wrote:Donald Trump's approval rating is now 41.4%, the lowest it has been since November 20.

Notably, an approval rating of 41.4% and a disapproval rating of 54.3% is very close to (within MOE) that CNN poll this morning that showed Biden as 14 points above Trump. This suggestions that, unlike Hillary Clinton, Biden is successfully capturing virtually all of the non-Trump votes.


Trump's approval rating has now fallen to 41.1%, the lowest since November 13. I expect it to continue to fall point-by-point as recent polls showing a very low approval rating stop being ignored as outliers by the normalization algorithm.


If I were to hazard I guess, I'd say he aggregates to somehwere from 38 - 39% approval rn.
Last edited by Valrifell on Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:39 pm

Another addition to the Plaza, and it's kind of a major one:

Colorado: Colorado voters will also be deciding whether or not to ban abortions after 22 weeks. Doctors who perform them would be charged with a misdemeanour, fined, and have their licences suspended for a minimum of three years unless it's done to save the mother's life.
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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:40 pm

Idzequitch wrote:Just an interesting anecdote, at least for me personally. My father, who has voted Republican in every election since Reagan, has just informed me that he may not vote for Trump. I know he's just one guy, but it makes me wonder if Trump might really be starting to lose that iron grip on older white evangelicals.


Ditto for my dad, he voted Trump. He's voting Biden now. Mom voted Johnson, voted GOP for decades before then and was active in the party, she's voting Biden now.

Lots of suburban, fairly well-educated lifelong Republicans like my folks are more than willing to vote Democratic if they like the candidate enough, and largely because they loathe Trump.
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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:40 pm

Valrifell wrote:
Cisairse wrote:
Trump's approval rating has now fallen to 41.1%, the lowest since November 13. I expect it to continue to fall point-by-point as recent polls showing a very low approval rating stop being ignored as outliers by the normalization algorithm.


If I were to hazard I guess, I'd say he aggregates to somehwere from 38 - 39% approval.


I agree. The question remains when - and how much - it will rise after bottoming out around there.

Unless something really major happens, I don't see it dropping below 38%.
Now it's clear as a pillar of smoke
The details of the above post are subject to leftist infighting.

And broken Starbucks glass

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Dresderstan
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Postby Dresderstan » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:41 pm

Shrillland wrote:Another addition to the Plaza, and it's kind of a major one:

Colorado: Colorado voters will also be deciding whether or not to ban abortions after 22 weeks. Doctors who perform them would be charged with a misdemeanour, fined, and have their licences suspended for a minimum of three years unless it's done to save the mother's life.

Is it gonna pass?
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My apathy levels have just reached new levels of I don't give a fuck.
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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:41 pm

Valrifell wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
That's my biggest fear.

And to all those saying "WeLL thEre's A ProCEss ThaT pReVeNts It," have you seen the dismantling of the checks and balances that supposedly protect our democracy?


There might be a system that prevents it, but it's untested since we've never had a testy transfer of power. Unless you consider the South's reaction to Lincoln, but then again even the Confederates didn't deny he won.


I should clarify that I don't think he'll be allowed to stay in power indefinitely if he loses. But he and the majority of his team will use every trick in the book to drag it out for months, make no mistake. The ramifications of that will be a major blow to the nation and our unity.

I know the latter seems like some sort of Dan Rather-esque, Morning Joe sorta cliche, but it is true that we're probably more polarized and dysfunctional as a country than at any point since perhaps the 19th century. I don't expect that to improve anytime soon.
Last edited by Major-Tom on Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:42 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Idzequitch wrote:Just an interesting anecdote, at least for me personally. My father, who has voted Republican in every election since Reagan, has just informed me that he may not vote for Trump. I know he's just one guy, but it makes me wonder if Trump might really be starting to lose that iron grip on older white evangelicals.


Ditto for my dad, he voted Trump. He's voting Biden now. Mom voted Johnson, voted GOP for decades before then and was active in the party, she's voting Biden now.

Lots of suburban, fairly well-educated lifelong Republicans like my folks are more than willing to vote Democratic if they like the candidate enough, and largely because they loathe Trump.


One of my devout Catholic friends, who voted Gary Johnson and plans on voting for Jo Jorgensen or writing in Amash, said that many of the formerly pro-Trump members of his congregation have publicly denounced him after the photo op last week and are now voting for Biden or Jorgensen.
Now it's clear as a pillar of smoke
The details of the above post are subject to leftist infighting.

And broken Starbucks glass

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They wave black flags
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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:42 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Valrifell wrote:
There might be a system that prevents it, but it's untested since we've never had a testy transfer of power. Unless you consider the South's reaction to Lincoln, but then again even the Confederates didn't deny he won.


I should clarify that I don't think he'll be allowed to stay in power indefinitely if he loses. But he and the majority of his team will use every trick in the book to drag it out for months, make no mistake. The ramifications of that will be a major blow to the nation.


Super not looking forward to the conspiracies to come from his base of support. Very dangerous.
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:43 pm

Dresderstan wrote:
Shrillland wrote:Another addition to the Plaza, and it's kind of a major one:

Colorado: Colorado voters will also be deciding whether or not to ban abortions after 22 weeks. Doctors who perform them would be charged with a misdemeanour, fined, and have their licences suspended for a minimum of three years unless it's done to save the mother's life.

Is it gonna pass?


It just got certified today, so there's no polling as of yet. It could, I think. Colorado may be turning blue, but I'm not sure it's that blue that they would reject such a measure. Colorado's one of only eight states that has no late-term bans on its books.
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Idzequitch
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Postby Idzequitch » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:44 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Idzequitch wrote:Just an interesting anecdote, at least for me personally. My father, who has voted Republican in every election since Reagan, has just informed me that he may not vote for Trump. I know he's just one guy, but it makes me wonder if Trump might really be starting to lose that iron grip on older white evangelicals.


Ditto for my dad, he voted Trump. He's voting Biden now. Mom voted Johnson, voted GOP for decades before then and was active in the party, she's voting Biden now.

Lots of suburban, fairly well-educated lifelong Republicans like my folks are more than willing to vote Democratic if they like the candidate enough, and largely because they loathe Trump.

My dad enthusistically voted Trump in 2016, despite my suggestion for him to consider Johnson (Especially since he lived in NM while Johnson was governor here). I think Trump's handling of COVID and the current protests have shaken his faith in his leadership. I highly, highly doubt my parents will consider Biden, but they may go for someone like Jo Jorgensen.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:48 pm

Shrillland wrote:Another addition to the Plaza, and it's kind of a major one:

Colorado: Colorado voters will also be deciding whether or not to ban abortions after 22 weeks. Doctors who perform them would be charged with a misdemeanour, fined, and have their licences suspended for a minimum of three years unless it's done to save the mother's life.

Its very doubtful that passes.

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:49 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Valrifell wrote:
There might be a system that prevents it, but it's untested since we've never had a testy transfer of power. Unless you consider the South's reaction to Lincoln, but then again even the Confederates didn't deny he won.


I should clarify that I don't think he'll be allowed to stay in power indefinitely if he loses. But he and the majority of his team will use every trick in the book to drag it out for months, make no mistake. The ramifications of that will be a major blow to the nation and our unity.

I know the latter seems like some sort of Dan Rather-esque, Morning Joe sorta cliche, but it is true that we're probably more polarized and dysfunctional as a country than at any point since perhaps the 19th century. I don't expect that to improve anytime soon.

Look at what happened in Kentucky last year. Even McConnell told Bevin to provide solid evidence of fraud or step aside

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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:50 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:Another addition to the Plaza, and it's kind of a major one:

Colorado: Colorado voters will also be deciding whether or not to ban abortions after 22 weeks. Doctors who perform them would be charged with a misdemeanour, fined, and have their licences suspended for a minimum of three years unless it's done to save the mother's life.

Its very doubtful that passes.


What makes you say?
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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:50 pm

Idzequitch wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
Ditto for my dad, he voted Trump. He's voting Biden now. Mom voted Johnson, voted GOP for decades before then and was active in the party, she's voting Biden now.

Lots of suburban, fairly well-educated lifelong Republicans like my folks are more than willing to vote Democratic if they like the candidate enough, and largely because they loathe Trump.

My dad enthusistically voted Trump in 2016, despite my suggestion for him to consider Johnson (Especially since he lived in NM while Johnson was governor here). I think Trump's handling of COVID and the current protests have shaken his faith in his leadership. I highly, highly doubt my parents will consider Biden, but they may go for someone like Jo Jorgensen.


I'm not a libertarian, but it saddens me that they keep kneecapping themselves with their candidates. On her website, a cursory glance shows how little attentiveness to both aesthetic and policy detail matters. There is no focus on what they plan to do with the issues facing America, it reads more like a hyper-libertarian manifesto hastily drafted on, say, a forum like NSG.

I don't like Amash's policies all too much, but Jesus, he should've just gone for it and subsequently the LNC should've picked him if they wanted a chance to break 5%.
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Postby Valrifell » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:51 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
I should clarify that I don't think he'll be allowed to stay in power indefinitely if he loses. But he and the majority of his team will use every trick in the book to drag it out for months, make no mistake. The ramifications of that will be a major blow to the nation and our unity.

I know the latter seems like some sort of Dan Rather-esque, Morning Joe sorta cliche, but it is true that we're probably more polarized and dysfunctional as a country than at any point since perhaps the 19th century. I don't expect that to improve anytime soon.

Look at what happened in Kentucky last year. Even McConnell told Bevin to provide solid evidence of fraud or step aside


You'll agree that Trump has way more influence over the GOP and national discourse than whoever that guy was.
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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:51 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
I should clarify that I don't think he'll be allowed to stay in power indefinitely if he loses. But he and the majority of his team will use every trick in the book to drag it out for months, make no mistake. The ramifications of that will be a major blow to the nation and our unity.

I know the latter seems like some sort of Dan Rather-esque, Morning Joe sorta cliche, but it is true that we're probably more polarized and dysfunctional as a country than at any point since perhaps the 19th century. I don't expect that to improve anytime soon.

Look at what happened in Kentucky last year. Even McConnell told Bevin to provide solid evidence of fraud or step aside


Again, if Trump loses and refuses to concede, he'll almost certainly have to leave at some point.

The issue is how America is going to react. I don't expect him to tell his base "alright guys, let's just stay calm and hold our breaths," it's going to be some of the most intense and hyper-partisan vitriol we've seen in many decades.
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Idzequitch
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Postby Idzequitch » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:52 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:Another addition to the Plaza, and it's kind of a major one:

Colorado: Colorado voters will also be deciding whether or not to ban abortions after 22 weeks. Doctors who perform them would be charged with a misdemeanour, fined, and have their licences suspended for a minimum of three years unless it's done to save the mother's life.

Its very doubtful that passes.

Not as doubtful as you think, in my humble opinion.

San Lumen wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
I should clarify that I don't think he'll be allowed to stay in power indefinitely if he loses. But he and the majority of his team will use every trick in the book to drag it out for months, make no mistake. The ramifications of that will be a major blow to the nation and our unity.

I know the latter seems like some sort of Dan Rather-esque, Morning Joe sorta cliche, but it is true that we're probably more polarized and dysfunctional as a country than at any point since perhaps the 19th century. I don't expect that to improve anytime soon.

Look at what happened in Kentucky last year. Even McConnell told Bevin to provide solid evidence of fraud or step aside

I think McConnell will find Trump quite outside of his control if Trump loses. He'll be too busy raving about fake news and voter fraud to listen to anyone.
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Zurkerx
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Postby Zurkerx » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:53 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Idzequitch wrote:Just an interesting anecdote, at least for me personally. My father, who has voted Republican in every election since Reagan, has just informed me that he may not vote for Trump. I know he's just one guy, but it makes me wonder if Trump might really be starting to lose that iron grip on older white evangelicals.


Ditto for my dad, he voted Trump. He's voting Biden now. Mom voted Johnson, voted GOP for decades before then and was active in the party, she's voting Biden now.

Lots of suburban, fairly well-educated lifelong Republicans like my folks are more than willing to vote Democratic if they like the candidate enough, and largely because they loathe Trump.


Not my folks: despite being from the suburbs, they full intend on voting for Trump even if he isn't the fondest of Republicans they like; they're the kind of people that think every Democrat is a socialist that wants to bring in foreigners to not only help keep them in power, but also to make the Country a "third world nation". They don't preach this constantly but yeah, this is what I have to live with...

But that's big your families are either not considering Trump or downright ready to embrace Biden. That's not the best of signs for him.
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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:55 pm

Zurkerx wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
Ditto for my dad, he voted Trump. He's voting Biden now. Mom voted Johnson, voted GOP for decades before then and was active in the party, she's voting Biden now.

Lots of suburban, fairly well-educated lifelong Republicans like my folks are more than willing to vote Democratic if they like the candidate enough, and largely because they loathe Trump.


Not my folks: despite being from the suburbs, they full intend on voting for Trump even if he isn't the fondest of Republicans they like; they're the kind of people that think every Democrat is a socialist that wants to bring in foreigners to not only help keep them in power, but also to make the Country a "third world nation". They don't preach this constantly but yeah, this is what I have to live with...

But that's big your families are either not considering Trump or downright ready to embrace Biden. That's not the best of signs for him.


They've always been "establishment, rank-and file" type moderate Republicans. Mom's side, specifically, has been involved in more moderate GOP politics ever since they immigrated, so Trump always horrified her.
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Idzequitch
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Postby Idzequitch » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:57 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Idzequitch wrote:My dad enthusistically voted Trump in 2016, despite my suggestion for him to consider Johnson (Especially since he lived in NM while Johnson was governor here). I think Trump's handling of COVID and the current protests have shaken his faith in his leadership. I highly, highly doubt my parents will consider Biden, but they may go for someone like Jo Jorgensen.


I'm not a libertarian, but it saddens me that they keep kneecapping themselves with their candidates. On her website, a cursory glance shows how little attentiveness to both aesthetic and policy detail matters. There is no focus on what they plan to do with the issues facing America, it reads more like a hyper-libertarian manifesto hastily drafted on, say, a forum like NSG.

I don't like Amash's policies all too much, but Jesus, he should've just gone for it and subsequently the LNC should've picked him if they wanted a chance to break 5%.

There are two reasons why I'm not planning on voting for Jorgensen at this time. One is that I really want Trump gone and I don't find Biden *that* unpalatable (for a politician). Secondly, Jorgensen's website gives me insufficient information to properly weigh her positions. I want details. Not ten random assorted tabs with a paragraph's worth of information jammed inside each.
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