2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Cannot think of a name]

Politico out here with a time machine

Fuck, this better not be a leak. I will really be disappointed if some lousy liberal California cop gets the pick

I imagine that it’s like death notices, they have one written up for all likely picks so they can be as close to first with the news as possible and someone checked the wrong box when closing the article.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Fuck, this better not be a leak. I will really be disappointed if some lousy liberal California cop gets the pick

I imagine that it’s like death notices, they have one written up for all likely picks so they can be as close to first with the news as possible and someone checked the wrong box when closing the article.

Maybe someone brought their kid into the office.
"You can play with the books but don't touch the computer, I'll be back in five munchkin"

[Ngelmish]

There are plenty of men who have the potential to be excellent Vice Presidents and they shouldn't have been rejected out of hand without a hearing.

I mean, you literally already know this.

I don't think so either. I don't mind that it's affirmative action, it's that it demonstrates the negative discrimination inherent in AA. (Can't apply positive discrimination without causing some negative discrimination). Biden should have kept his motive under his hat, then he could announce a female VP pick as the best person available.

As you note in the previous post of this strand, political considerations often come before picking the best available replacement for the President. But of course the VP pick is touted as the best available, it's not even properly a lie, only an extension of the fact-free self promotion voters expect of any candidate. Announcing in advance that the VP will be selected from a third or a quarter of the plausible Democrats makes it too clear that "best available" wasn't the main criterion.

Something else you said is relevant. The VP candidate will need to be able to stand up for herself verbally. She will come under attack for not being smart enough, not being qualified enough, and anything else playing to the narrative sketched out already: "second best".

Exactly. I don't mind the VP being a woman, and in fact I agree with Lumen that, in absolute terms, it's about time. And Biden has made it clear that he has at least considered one woman who is head and shoulders above the rest. But committing to only considering women is simply tokenism and political posturing. To say nothing of the fact that, tactically even, Biden would have ginned up a lot more enthusiasm from women and women's rights activists et al, if he was perceived to be open to choosing a woman but not committed to it. The enthusiasm would have been off the charts when he presented an uncertain possibility as reality.

[Zurkerx]

Who Are Governors Grisham and Whitmer? NPR Takes a Look.

Both Governors are viewed as handling COVID-19 better than others, especially in New Mexico. That being said, a Governor probably wouldn't be the right choice. Not only do they have to deal with COVID-19, they also have to deal with the racial unrest, which has demanded Biden pick a Black woman, hurting their chances.

[Zurkerx]

I have two reservations about Duckworth, one being that, in spite of the generally good press she got over her kerfuffle with Tucker Carlson, I wasn't all that impressed with how she handled the (loaded) question about taking down George Washington's statues. It was a clumsy answer that raises the (potential) red flag that she may simply not have the oratorical chops to avoid damaging lines of attack. But the main thing (and this is true of many candidates Biden is known to have vetted) is that when people talk about Duckworth's value to the ticket, it's always, and exclusively couched in terms of who she is superficially as person (combat veteran, Asian-American, disabled etc.) not what she's done in politics or what she might want to do in the future. Biography and character matter in elections of course, but that line of argument is squarely about symbolism over substance and I don't like it.

For years now I've been tilting at the windmill that VP's should be chosen primarily because they would not only be capable of being a good president, but, because they are quite simply the literal best available substitute to be president should it come to that. Obviously, raw politics drives the decision making more often than not (occasionally that's resulted in good choices, like Gore or Biden) and just as obviously most presidential nominees aren't going to make that their preeminent deciding factor, because they are going to be president and they don't want someone they have to constantly look over their shoulders at simply because the other person, they know, is at least as qualified and at least as good at the job description as they are. I get that. But the centrality of the raw politics approach has resulted in a lot of the worst choices (Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Sarah Palin to name just a few) being made. And sure, people don't vote for the Vice President (somewhere, Dan Quayle is probably still crying about that). But, dammit, the VP we deserve should be the best available substitute. And Biden really shouldn't have ruled out a male running mate right out the gate; that was politics, and he said to win just as much as he earnestly believed it -- but it's also ended us up in a situation where we know for a fact that he's been considering some people he really shouldn't be.

True. Her lack of legislative achievements is definitely concerning as well as her defined positions on key issues like the economy and race. That being said, if she were selected, the symbolism could initially help, giving her time to define herself and what she stands for. But she would have to be quick on that, and I'm not entirely sure if she could do that.

Theoretically, a VP pick should be able to fill the shoes in a sitting President should something happen to them. And that should be the best choice though as we have learned in politics, some VP picks tend to be done for political purposes (Edwards, Palin, possibly Biden's pick). Is it time for a woman VP that could arise to the occasion? Certainly. However, I do agree Biden shouldn't have cut off a whole swab of potential candidates due to their gender: some good male picks like Brown would have certainly help Biden. The pure politics of it all is ashamed, especially among certain groups of people that demand a woman in general is selected or otherwise they don't vote is a form of shortsightedness that kneecaps good candidates while propping up candidates that should never be considered as you said (Abrams is a prime example of that).

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Who Are Governors Grisham and Whitmer? NPR Takes a Look.

Both Governors are viewed as handling COVID-19 better than others, especially in New Mexico. That being said, a Governor probably wouldn't be the right choice. Not only do they have to deal with COVID-19, they also have to deal with the racial unrest, which has demanded Biden pick a Black woman, hurting their chances.

Odds are that "dealing with the COVID-19 crisis" will still be a thing by January. With any luck it will be a matter of high uptake of vaccination, but it could also be more of what we have now. The voters would be forgiving of a governor taking time off campaigning to continue being governor, BUT. There's the period between elections and inauguration. Once elected VP, they can't serve as Governor, or is that a generalization not applicable to all states?

[Shrillland]

Fuck, this better not be a leak. I will really be disappointed if some lousy liberal California cop gets the pick

I imagine that it’s like death notices, they have one written up for all likely picks so they can be as close to first with the news as possible and someone checked the wrong box when closing the article.

I'm not so sure about that after reading this bit from CNN: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/28/politics/biden-kamala-harris-notes/index.html

[Zurkerx]

Who Are Governors Grisham and Whitmer? NPR Takes a Look.

Both Governors are viewed as handling COVID-19 better than others, especially in New Mexico. That being said, a Governor probably wouldn't be the right choice. Not only do they have to deal with COVID-19, they also have to deal with the racial unrest, which has demanded Biden pick a Black woman, hurting their chances.

Odds are that "dealing with the COVID-19 crisis" will still be a thing by January. With any luck it will be a matter of high uptake of vaccination, but it could also be more of what we have now. The voters would be forgiving of a governor taking time off campaigning to continue being governor, BUT. There's the period between elections and inauguration. Once elected VP, they can't serve as Governor, or is that a generalization not applicable to all states?

I'm not a 100% sure, but I do believe they would continue in their capacity as Governor until January of next year, of which, either the Lt. Governor takes over or a placeholder is selected. Until then, they're still technically the Governor of their respective State.

[San Lumen]

Odds are that "dealing with the COVID-19 crisis" will still be a thing by January. With any luck it will be a matter of high uptake of vaccination, but it could also be more of what we have now. The voters would be forgiving of a governor taking time off campaigning to continue being governor, BUT. There's the period between elections and inauguration. Once elected VP, they can't serve as Governor, or is that a generalization not applicable to all states?

I'm not a 100% sure, but I do believe they would continue in their capacity as Governor until January of next year, of which, either the Lt. Governor takes over or a placeholder is selected. Until then, they're still technically the Governor of their respective State.

In most cases the lt Governor takes over after their resignation and serves until the next election in which they can run for a full term if they chose too. In other states the Secretary of State is first in line.

I don’t know of any state where a placeholder is selected to replace a governor who resigned or left office for any other circumstances

[Ifreann]

Picking out a line from a speech reported on here:

"Arsonists and anarchists should be prosecuted," Biden said, and "local law enforcement can do that."

Seems kind of concerning that Biden speaks about a certain set of political beliefs as if they are akin to the inherently violent and dangerous crime of arson.

[Page]

Picking out a line from a speech reported on here:

"Arsonists and anarchists should be prosecuted," Biden said, and "local law enforcement can do that."

Seems kind of concerning that Biden speaks about a certain set of political beliefs as if they are akin to the inherently violent and dangerous crime of arson.

It's a new red scare. They push the same kind of strawman narrative of anarchists today as they did about communists during McCarthyism.

[Valrifell]

Picking out a line from a speech reported on here:

Seems kind of concerning that Biden speaks about a certain set of political beliefs as if they are akin to the inherently violent and dangerous crime of arson.

It's a new red scare. They push the same kind of strawman narrative of anarchists today as they did about communists during McCarthyism.

It's not new per se, since anarchists have really always been the political punching bag.

Doesn't even matter the political spectrum, nobody likes them.

[Page]

It's a new red scare. They push the same kind of strawman narrative of anarchists today as they did about communists during McCarthyism.

It's not new per se, since anarchists have really always been the political punching bag.

Doesn't even matter the political spectrum, nobody likes them.

Yeah it is kind of lonely. And frustrating too that after dealing with right-wing bigots I have to go at tankies who do things like defending the Chinese government.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Picking out a line from a speech reported on here:

"Arsonists and anarchists should be prosecuted," Biden said, and "local law enforcement can do that."

Seems kind of concerning that Biden speaks about a certain set of political beliefs as if they are akin to the inherently violent and dangerous crime of arson.

Arsonists should be prosecuted. Anarchists should not. Is it out of the question that he just uttered the wrong word?

[Zurkerx]

Picking out a line from a speech reported on here:

Seems kind of concerning that Biden speaks about a certain set of political beliefs as if they are akin to the inherently violent and dangerous crime of arson.

Arsonists should be prosecuted. Anarchists should not. Is it out of the question that he just uttered the wrong word?

If I had to guess, he's referring to people that destroy property as "Anarchists" though I'm not sure if that's being specifically applied and if it is, Anarchists is not the word I would use. Still, this is a non-issue for most people: a majority tend to associate Anarchists as lawless people even if that isn't accurate at times.

I'm not a 100% sure, but I do believe they would continue in their capacity as Governor until January of next year, of which, either the Lt. Governor takes over or a placeholder is selected. Until then, they're still technically the Governor of their respective State.

In most cases the lt Governor takes over after their resignation and serves until the next election in which they can run for a full term if they chose too. In other states the Secretary of State is first in line.

I don’t know of any state where a placeholder is selected to replace a governor who resigned or left office for any other circumstances

Yeah, that makes sense. Thank you.

[Ifreann]

Picking out a line from a speech reported on here:

Seems kind of concerning that Biden speaks about a certain set of political beliefs as if they are akin to the inherently violent and dangerous crime of arson.

It's a new red scare. They push the same kind of strawman narrative of anarchists today as they did about communists during McCarthyism.

Very frightened of the people who want to build a society based on mutual aid and cooperation and don't believe that hierarchies justify themselves just by existing.

[Galloism]

It's a new red scare. They push the same kind of strawman narrative of anarchists today as they did about communists during McCarthyism.

Very frightened of the people who want to build a society based on mutual aid and cooperation and don't believe that hierarchies justify themselves just by existing.

Once again, acting like your definition is the only acceptable one, and ignoring public use and understanding:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/anarchist

Definition of anarchist

1 : a person who rebels against any authority, established order, or ruling power

2 : a person who believes in, advocates, or promotes anarchism or anarchy

especially : one who uses violent means to overthrow the established order

I’m not saying Biden was right to say it. There are such thing as nonviolent anarchists, and so “anarchists” is too broad a brush to declare as evil. But Iffy’s implication of “true anarchism is about mutual aid and cooperation” is making the same mistake Biden did but in the opposite direction.

[San Lumen]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/p ... KUOdsqSGHC

Trump is no longer airing ads in Michigan

[Aureumterra]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/politics/michigan-trump-biden-2020.html#click=https://t.co/KUOdsqSGHC

Trump is no longer airing ads in Michigan

Paywalled

[No State Here]

Picking out a line from a speech reported on here:

"Arsonists and anarchists should be prosecuted," Biden said, and "local law enforcement can do that."

Seems kind of concerning that Biden speaks about a certain set of political beliefs as if they are akin to the inherently violent and dangerous crime of arson.

And they say Biden is a centrist who doesn’t hate any group

[United States of Devonta]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/politics/michigan-trump-biden-2020.html#click=https://t.co/KUOdsqSGHC

Trump is no longer airing ads in Michigan

Yes, in fact they have gone completely dark for now. Biden is increasing his TV and Radio spending. So much so, Biden has outspent Trump the last seven days.

[Zurkerx]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/politics/michigan-trump-biden-2020.html#click=https://t.co/KUOdsqSGHC

Trump is no longer airing ads in Michigan

That is an interesting move, especially since they're investing more in the likes of Nevada and Iowa. Now, I suspect these ads will resume come the Fall but I think the Trump Campaign recognizes that Michigan is out of reach at this point.

Paywalled

Here ya go:

President Trump’s campaign has quietly receded from the television airwaves in Michigan in recent weeks, shifting money elsewhere as one of the key Midwestern states that powered his surprise victory in 2016 threatens to move more firmly back into the Democratic column in 2020.

Michigan began the year with expectations that it would be one of the most intense battlegrounds in the country, but its share of Trump television advertising dollars dwindled this summer as Joseph R. Biden Jr. built a steady advantage in the polls.

Since the end of June, Mr. Trump has spent more money on ads in 10 other states — with Michigan falling behind even much smaller states like Iowa and Nevada — and in recent days, Mr. Trump’s campaign stopped buying ads in Michigan entirely.

The Biden campaign has more than tripled what Mr. Trump spent on television in Michigan in the last month, by far the most lopsided advantage of any swing state where both are advertising. And in Detroit, the state’s largest media market, the Trump campaign last ran a television ad, outside of national ad buys that include the state, on July 3, according to data from Advertising Analytics.

Mr. Trump faces a trifecta of troubles in Michigan, according to political strategists and state polling: reduced support among less educated white voters in a contest against Mr. Biden compared with Hillary Clinton; motivated Black voters in the state’s urban centers; and suburban voters who continue to flee Mr. Trump’s divisive brand of politics.

“Of all the states he won in 2016, Trump would be most hard-pressed to keep Michigan in his column this time around,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster for Priorities USA, a Democratic super PAC.

There are uniquely local factors hampering the president, too: Mr. Trump’s unprovoked and unfulfilled threat this spring to “hold up funding” to the state because election officials planned to send absentee ballot applications to voters, as well as his loud sparring with Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, over her response to the coronavirus pandemic. Voters now consistently rate her performance on the issue positively and his unfavorably.

“The clearest reason why the president is reeling in Michigan is because of his failed coronavirus response,” said Garlin Gilchrist, the state’s Democratic lieutenant governor.

Mr. Trump’s campaign has downplayed any talk of retreat. Republicans are unlikely to jump ship so early on a state worth 16 Electoral College votes, and they are still organizing in Michigan. The campaign continues to deploy door-knocking volunteers during the pandemic, dispatch top administration officials (including the attorney general and the secretary of energy this month) and advertise digitally on Facebook.

But the reality is that Mr. Trump has far more pathways to 270 electoral votes without Michigan than Mr. Biden does. The Trump campaign has been redirecting money to defend other, more conservative states that he won in 2016, like Ohio and Georgia, and to try to find new Democratic states to flip, such as Nevada and Minnesota.

Michigan Democrats are uneasy about the notion that they are ahead after Mrs. Clinton’s narrow and devastating loss. “If nothing else, 2016 has made it very clear to a lot of Democrats that you don’t want to put too much stock in anything other than what happens on Election Day,” said Brandon Dillon, who was the Michigan Democratic Party’s chairman four years ago.

“The biggest danger for us is to be overconfident,” added Representative Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat whose frequent warnings have earned her the “Debbie Downer” nickname.

Until this week, Mr. Trump’s outside allies had not been filling the Michigan advertising breach. But on Wednesday, a group called Restoration PAC, funded by the Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein, will begin a $2.5 million, two-week Michigan ad buy. The group’s polling showed Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden 54 percent to 37 percent in June, double the gap the president faced in March. Dan Curry, a Restoration PAC spokesman, said more recent private polls indicated that the contest was “tightening.”

America First Action, the leading pro-Trump super PAC, cut Michigan from its ad buy in early July, swapping in Arizona and North Carolina instead. Including super PACs, Democrats spent $5.3 million in television ads in the state from June 30 through Tuesday, compared with less than $1 million for Republicans.

Bradley Beychok, the president of American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC that has made Michigan a major focus, argued that the ad spending disparity was a sign that “Trump is conceding part of the battleground.” If it holds, he said, “this is a big, seismic event.”

In a call last week with reporters, Mr. Trump’s new campaign manager, Bill Stepien, dismissed current polls that show Mr. Trump losing in Michigan and nationally, noting that the president trailed badly throughout much of the summer of 2016 and into the fall before winning the White House anyway.

“These are states the experts did not see coming four years ago,” Mr. Stepien said of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which all flipped to the G.O.P. despite surveys showing Mrs. Clinton ahead. “We intend to protect this 2016 map,” he added.

Mr. Trump’s campaign still has $11.4 million in television ads reserved in Michigan starting in September, and the head of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel, is said to be particularly invested in the state as a former state party chair who had argued Mr. Trump had a chance there in 2016.

But ad reservations are not necessarily strong predictors of future priorities; campaigns are not financially penalized for canceling or adjusting reservations closer to their air dates.

“This is a state-by-state fist fight,” said John Sellek, a Lansing-based Republican political consultant. “The Trump campaign may have decided that they need to shore up their base states like Ohio and Georgia. There will be on-and-off skirmishes in the blue wall states, but for now, it looks like some of the fights we’ll see are in the Republican base states.”

After Mr. Trump carried Michigan in 2016 by only 10,704 votes, Democrats struck back decisively in 2018, flipping three statewide offices from Republican to Democrat, as well as two suburban Detroit congressional seats and five seats each in the State House of Representatives and State Senate. At the top of the ticket, Ms. Whitmer won the governorship by more than 400,000 votes.

“Particularly women in the suburbs broke in a big way for us Democrats,” said Mr. Gilchrist, who was elected with Ms. Whitmer, “and I think the Biden campaign is running an effort to continue to build on that momentum.”

Then there are Mr. Trump’s self-inflicted political wounds in the state, none more public than his insults of Ms. Whitmer as she locked down the state after the virus began spreading in March, calling her “half Whitmer” and “the woman in Michigan.”

Ms. Whitmer was one of a series of Michigan women whom the president has belittled: the attorney general, the secretary of state, the chief executive of General Motors and two members of Congress.

“I don’t know any other state where he’s gone after as many women,” Ms. Dingell said. Mr. Trump also mocked her late husband, former Representative John D. Dingell, at a rally last year, suggesting he had gone to hell and was “looking up.”

Three state polls last week showed Mr. Biden winning female voters by wide margins, from 15 to 29 percentage points, and ahead in the state over all by six to 12 points.

Mr. Biden is seen as a stronger candidate in Michigan than Mrs. Clinton was, especially after he swept all 83 counties in the Democratic primary race against Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Four years earlier, Mr. Sanders carried 73 counties against Mrs. Clinton, and some of his strongest areas were rural and white regions that would go on to vote overwhelming for Mr. Trump in the fall.

Mr. Trump carried non-college-educated white voters in Michigan by more than 30 percentage points, according to 2016 general election exit polling. Last week, separate CNN and Fox News polls of the state showed that Mr. Trump’s lead among that group had shrunk to only 10 points.

“Hillary Clinton was toxic to non-college-educated white working-class voters, particularly men,” said Adrian Hemond, a Michigan-based Democratic strategist. “They don’t have the same attitude with Joe Biden.”

In the state’s largely rural Upper Peninsula, Mr. Trump swept all but one of 15 counties. And while the president is expected to carry the region again, many predict it will be by lower margins.

Rod Nelson, a retired chief executive of the Mackinac Straits Health System hospital in St. Ignace, on the eastern end of the Upper Peninsula, is one of those who voted for Mr. Trump but has been turned off by the president’s attitude and leadership.

“I was privately hoping he would get in there and do the things he said he was going to do, but I was bothered by what he said about John McCain,” Mr. Nelson said.

“And that cabinet meeting where they all had to go around and praise him really turned it for me,” he added. “I don’t believe in a dictator or a king. I want a president who knows how to lead.”

He plans to cast a ballot for Mr. Biden in November.

“I just don’t see how he can win Michigan,” Mr. Nelson said of the president. “I think there was a real anti-Hillary sentiment in 2016. It was a perfect storm for him to win.”

[United States of Devonta]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/politics/michigan-trump-biden-2020.html#click=https://t.co/KUOdsqSGHC

Trump is no longer airing ads in Michigan

That is an interesting move, especially since they're investing more in the likes of Nevada and Iowa. Now, I suspect these ads will resume come the Fall but I think the Trump Campaign recognizes that Michigan is out of reach at this point.

Paywalled

Here ya go:

President Trump’s campaign has quietly receded from the television airwaves in Michigan in recent weeks, shifting money elsewhere as one of the key Midwestern states that powered his surprise victory in 2016 threatens to move more firmly back into the Democratic column in 2020.

Michigan began the year with expectations that it would be one of the most intense battlegrounds in the country, but its share of Trump television advertising dollars dwindled this summer as Joseph R. Biden Jr. built a steady advantage in the polls.

Since the end of June, Mr. Trump has spent more money on ads in 10 other states — with Michigan falling behind even much smaller states like Iowa and Nevada — and in recent days, Mr. Trump’s campaign stopped buying ads in Michigan entirely.

The Biden campaign has more than tripled what Mr. Trump spent on television in Michigan in the last month, by far the most lopsided advantage of any swing state where both are advertising. And in Detroit, the state’s largest media market, the Trump campaign last ran a television ad, outside of national ad buys that include the state, on July 3, according to data from Advertising Analytics.

Mr. Trump faces a trifecta of troubles in Michigan, according to political strategists and state polling: reduced support among less educated white voters in a contest against Mr. Biden compared with Hillary Clinton; motivated Black voters in the state’s urban centers; and suburban voters who continue to flee Mr. Trump’s divisive brand of politics.

“Of all the states he won in 2016, Trump would be most hard-pressed to keep Michigan in his column this time around,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster for Priorities USA, a Democratic super PAC.

There are uniquely local factors hampering the president, too: Mr. Trump’s unprovoked and unfulfilled threat this spring to “hold up funding” to the state because election officials planned to send absentee ballot applications to voters, as well as his loud sparring with Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, over her response to the coronavirus pandemic. Voters now consistently rate her performance on the issue positively and his unfavorably.

“The clearest reason why the president is reeling in Michigan is because of his failed coronavirus response,” said Garlin Gilchrist, the state’s Democratic lieutenant governor.

Mr. Trump’s campaign has downplayed any talk of retreat. Republicans are unlikely to jump ship so early on a state worth 16 Electoral College votes, and they are still organizing in Michigan. The campaign continues to deploy door-knocking volunteers during the pandemic, dispatch top administration officials (including the attorney general and the secretary of energy this month) and advertise digitally on Facebook.

But the reality is that Mr. Trump has far more pathways to 270 electoral votes without Michigan than Mr. Biden does. The Trump campaign has been redirecting money to defend other, more conservative states that he won in 2016, like Ohio and Georgia, and to try to find new Democratic states to flip, such as Nevada and Minnesota.

Michigan Democrats are uneasy about the notion that they are ahead after Mrs. Clinton’s narrow and devastating loss. “If nothing else, 2016 has made it very clear to a lot of Democrats that you don’t want to put too much stock in anything other than what happens on Election Day,” said Brandon Dillon, who was the Michigan Democratic Party’s chairman four years ago.

“The biggest danger for us is to be overconfident,” added Representative Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat whose frequent warnings have earned her the “Debbie Downer” nickname.

Until this week, Mr. Trump’s outside allies had not been filling the Michigan advertising breach. But on Wednesday, a group called Restoration PAC, funded by the Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein, will begin a $2.5 million, two-week Michigan ad buy. The group’s polling showed Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden 54 percent to 37 percent in June, double the gap the president faced in March. Dan Curry, a Restoration PAC spokesman, said more recent private polls indicated that the contest was “tightening.”

America First Action, the leading pro-Trump super PAC, cut Michigan from its ad buy in early July, swapping in Arizona and North Carolina instead. Including super PACs, Democrats spent $5.3 million in television ads in the state from June 30 through Tuesday, compared with less than $1 million for Republicans.

Bradley Beychok, the president of American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC that has made Michigan a major focus, argued that the ad spending disparity was a sign that “Trump is conceding part of the battleground.” If it holds, he said, “this is a big, seismic event.”

In a call last week with reporters, Mr. Trump’s new campaign manager, Bill Stepien, dismissed current polls that show Mr. Trump losing in Michigan and nationally, noting that the president trailed badly throughout much of the summer of 2016 and into the fall before winning the White House anyway.

“These are states the experts did not see coming four years ago,” Mr. Stepien said of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which all flipped to the G.O.P. despite surveys showing Mrs. Clinton ahead. “We intend to protect this 2016 map,” he added.

Mr. Trump’s campaign still has $11.4 million in television ads reserved in Michigan starting in September, and the head of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel, is said to be particularly invested in the state as a former state party chair who had argued Mr. Trump had a chance there in 2016.

But ad reservations are not necessarily strong predictors of future priorities; campaigns are not financially penalized for canceling or adjusting reservations closer to their air dates.

“This is a state-by-state fist fight,” said John Sellek, a Lansing-based Republican political consultant. “The Trump campaign may have decided that they need to shore up their base states like Ohio and Georgia. There will be on-and-off skirmishes in the blue wall states, but for now, it looks like some of the fights we’ll see are in the Republican base states.”

After Mr. Trump carried Michigan in 2016 by only 10,704 votes, Democrats struck back decisively in 2018, flipping three statewide offices from Republican to Democrat, as well as two suburban Detroit congressional seats and five seats each in the State House of Representatives and State Senate. At the top of the ticket, Ms. Whitmer won the governorship by more than 400,000 votes.

“Particularly women in the suburbs broke in a big way for us Democrats,” said Mr. Gilchrist, who was elected with Ms. Whitmer, “and I think the Biden campaign is running an effort to continue to build on that momentum.”

Then there are Mr. Trump’s self-inflicted political wounds in the state, none more public than his insults of Ms. Whitmer as she locked down the state after the virus began spreading in March, calling her “half Whitmer” and “the woman in Michigan.”

Ms. Whitmer was one of a series of Michigan women whom the president has belittled: the attorney general, the secretary of state, the chief executive of General Motors and two members of Congress.

“I don’t know any other state where he’s gone after as many women,” Ms. Dingell said. Mr. Trump also mocked her late husband, former Representative John D. Dingell, at a rally last year, suggesting he had gone to hell and was “looking up.”

Three state polls last week showed Mr. Biden winning female voters by wide margins, from 15 to 29 percentage points, and ahead in the state over all by six to 12 points.

Mr. Biden is seen as a stronger candidate in Michigan than Mrs. Clinton was, especially after he swept all 83 counties in the Democratic primary race against Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Four years earlier, Mr. Sanders carried 73 counties against Mrs. Clinton, and some of his strongest areas were rural and white regions that would go on to vote overwhelming for Mr. Trump in the fall.

Mr. Trump carried non-college-educated white voters in Michigan by more than 30 percentage points, according to 2016 general election exit polling. Last week, separate CNN and Fox News polls of the state showed that Mr. Trump’s lead among that group had shrunk to only 10 points.

“Hillary Clinton was toxic to non-college-educated white working-class voters, particularly men,” said Adrian Hemond, a Michigan-based Democratic strategist. “They don’t have the same attitude with Joe Biden.”

In the state’s largely rural Upper Peninsula, Mr. Trump swept all but one of 15 counties. And while the president is expected to carry the region again, many predict it will be by lower margins.

Rod Nelson, a retired chief executive of the Mackinac Straits Health System hospital in St. Ignace, on the eastern end of the Upper Peninsula, is one of those who voted for Mr. Trump but has been turned off by the president’s attitude and leadership.

“I was privately hoping he would get in there and do the things he said he was going to do, but I was bothered by what he said about John McCain,” Mr. Nelson said.

“And that cabinet meeting where they all had to go around and praise him really turned it for me,” he added. “I don’t believe in a dictator or a king. I want a president who knows how to lead.”

He plans to cast a ballot for Mr. Biden in November.

“I just don’t see how he can win Michigan,” Mr. Nelson said of the president. “I think there was a real anti-Hillary sentiment in 2016. It was a perfect storm for him to win.”

It also shows polling might be more accurate then in 2016. Polling had Trump down in MI and the rest of the Rust Belt in 2016, but he kept campaigning there. Most likely, Trumps internals probably showed a much closer race. Now his internals probably look like the state averages and he might be giving up.

[San Lumen]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/politics/michigan-trump-biden-2020.html#click=https://t.co/KUOdsqSGHC

Trump is no longer airing ads in Michigan

That is an interesting move, especially since they're investing more in the likes of Nevada and Iowa. Now, I suspect these ads will resume come the Fall but I think the Trump Campaign recognizes that Michigan is out of reach at this point.

Paywalled

Here ya go:

President Trump’s campaign has quietly receded from the television airwaves in Michigan in recent weeks, shifting money elsewhere as one of the key Midwestern states that powered his surprise victory in 2016 threatens to move more firmly back into the Democratic column in 2020.

Michigan began the year with expectations that it would be one of the most intense battlegrounds in the country, but its share of Trump television advertising dollars dwindled this summer as Joseph R. Biden Jr. built a steady advantage in the polls.

Since the end of June, Mr. Trump has spent more money on ads in 10 other states — with Michigan falling behind even much smaller states like Iowa and Nevada — and in recent days, Mr. Trump’s campaign stopped buying ads in Michigan entirely.

The Biden campaign has more than tripled what Mr. Trump spent on television in Michigan in the last month, by far the most lopsided advantage of any swing state where both are advertising. And in Detroit, the state’s largest media market, the Trump campaign last ran a television ad, outside of national ad buys that include the state, on July 3, according to data from Advertising Analytics.

Mr. Trump faces a trifecta of troubles in Michigan, according to political strategists and state polling: reduced support among less educated white voters in a contest against Mr. Biden compared with Hillary Clinton; motivated Black voters in the state’s urban centers; and suburban voters who continue to flee Mr. Trump’s divisive brand of politics.

“Of all the states he won in 2016, Trump would be most hard-pressed to keep Michigan in his column this time around,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster for Priorities USA, a Democratic super PAC.

There are uniquely local factors hampering the president, too: Mr. Trump’s unprovoked and unfulfilled threat this spring to “hold up funding” to the state because election officials planned to send absentee ballot applications to voters, as well as his loud sparring with Michigan’s Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, over her response to the coronavirus pandemic. Voters now consistently rate her performance on the issue positively and his unfavorably.

“The clearest reason why the president is reeling in Michigan is because of his failed coronavirus response,” said Garlin Gilchrist, the state’s Democratic lieutenant governor.

Mr. Trump’s campaign has downplayed any talk of retreat. Republicans are unlikely to jump ship so early on a state worth 16 Electoral College votes, and they are still organizing in Michigan. The campaign continues to deploy door-knocking volunteers during the pandemic, dispatch top administration officials (including the attorney general and the secretary of energy this month) and advertise digitally on Facebook.

But the reality is that Mr. Trump has far more pathways to 270 electoral votes without Michigan than Mr. Biden does. The Trump campaign has been redirecting money to defend other, more conservative states that he won in 2016, like Ohio and Georgia, and to try to find new Democratic states to flip, such as Nevada and Minnesota.

Michigan Democrats are uneasy about the notion that they are ahead after Mrs. Clinton’s narrow and devastating loss. “If nothing else, 2016 has made it very clear to a lot of Democrats that you don’t want to put too much stock in anything other than what happens on Election Day,” said Brandon Dillon, who was the Michigan Democratic Party’s chairman four years ago.

“The biggest danger for us is to be overconfident,” added Representative Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat whose frequent warnings have earned her the “Debbie Downer” nickname.

Until this week, Mr. Trump’s outside allies had not been filling the Michigan advertising breach. But on Wednesday, a group called Restoration PAC, funded by the Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein, will begin a $2.5 million, two-week Michigan ad buy. The group’s polling showed Mr. Trump trailing Mr. Biden 54 percent to 37 percent in June, double the gap the president faced in March. Dan Curry, a Restoration PAC spokesman, said more recent private polls indicated that the contest was “tightening.”

America First Action, the leading pro-Trump super PAC, cut Michigan from its ad buy in early July, swapping in Arizona and North Carolina instead. Including super PACs, Democrats spent $5.3 million in television ads in the state from June 30 through Tuesday, compared with less than $1 million for Republicans.

Bradley Beychok, the president of American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC that has made Michigan a major focus, argued that the ad spending disparity was a sign that “Trump is conceding part of the battleground.” If it holds, he said, “this is a big, seismic event.”

In a call last week with reporters, Mr. Trump’s new campaign manager, Bill Stepien, dismissed current polls that show Mr. Trump losing in Michigan and nationally, noting that the president trailed badly throughout much of the summer of 2016 and into the fall before winning the White House anyway.

“These are states the experts did not see coming four years ago,” Mr. Stepien said of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which all flipped to the G.O.P. despite surveys showing Mrs. Clinton ahead. “We intend to protect this 2016 map,” he added.

Mr. Trump’s campaign still has $11.4 million in television ads reserved in Michigan starting in September, and the head of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel, is said to be particularly invested in the state as a former state party chair who had argued Mr. Trump had a chance there in 2016.

But ad reservations are not necessarily strong predictors of future priorities; campaigns are not financially penalized for canceling or adjusting reservations closer to their air dates.

“This is a state-by-state fist fight,” said John Sellek, a Lansing-based Republican political consultant. “The Trump campaign may have decided that they need to shore up their base states like Ohio and Georgia. There will be on-and-off skirmishes in the blue wall states, but for now, it looks like some of the fights we’ll see are in the Republican base states.”

After Mr. Trump carried Michigan in 2016 by only 10,704 votes, Democrats struck back decisively in 2018, flipping three statewide offices from Republican to Democrat, as well as two suburban Detroit congressional seats and five seats each in the State House of Representatives and State Senate. At the top of the ticket, Ms. Whitmer won the governorship by more than 400,000 votes.

“Particularly women in the suburbs broke in a big way for us Democrats,” said Mr. Gilchrist, who was elected with Ms. Whitmer, “and I think the Biden campaign is running an effort to continue to build on that momentum.”

Then there are Mr. Trump’s self-inflicted political wounds in the state, none more public than his insults of Ms. Whitmer as she locked down the state after the virus began spreading in March, calling her “half Whitmer” and “the woman in Michigan.”

Ms. Whitmer was one of a series of Michigan women whom the president has belittled: the attorney general, the secretary of state, the chief executive of General Motors and two members of Congress.

“I don’t know any other state where he’s gone after as many women,” Ms. Dingell said. Mr. Trump also mocked her late husband, former Representative John D. Dingell, at a rally last year, suggesting he had gone to hell and was “looking up.”

Three state polls last week showed Mr. Biden winning female voters by wide margins, from 15 to 29 percentage points, and ahead in the state over all by six to 12 points.

Mr. Biden is seen as a stronger candidate in Michigan than Mrs. Clinton was, especially after he swept all 83 counties in the Democratic primary race against Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Four years earlier, Mr. Sanders carried 73 counties against Mrs. Clinton, and some of his strongest areas were rural and white regions that would go on to vote overwhelming for Mr. Trump in the fall.

Mr. Trump carried non-college-educated white voters in Michigan by more than 30 percentage points, according to 2016 general election exit polling. Last week, separate CNN and Fox News polls of the state showed that Mr. Trump’s lead among that group had shrunk to only 10 points.

“Hillary Clinton was toxic to non-college-educated white working-class voters, particularly men,” said Adrian Hemond, a Michigan-based Democratic strategist. “They don’t have the same attitude with Joe Biden.”

In the state’s largely rural Upper Peninsula, Mr. Trump swept all but one of 15 counties. And while the president is expected to carry the region again, many predict it will be by lower margins.

Rod Nelson, a retired chief executive of the Mackinac Straits Health System hospital in St. Ignace, on the eastern end of the Upper Peninsula, is one of those who voted for Mr. Trump but has been turned off by the president’s attitude and leadership.

“I was privately hoping he would get in there and do the things he said he was going to do, but I was bothered by what he said about John McCain,” Mr. Nelson said.

“And that cabinet meeting where they all had to go around and praise him really turned it for me,” he added. “I don’t believe in a dictator or a king. I want a president who knows how to lead.”

He plans to cast a ballot for Mr. Biden in November.

“I just don’t see how he can win Michigan,” Mr. Nelson said of the president. “I think there was a real anti-Hillary sentiment in 2016. It was a perfect storm for him to win.”

I have a hard time seeing how he wins Nevada. Clark county leans blue and Washoe is trending that way. Together it’s 85 percent of the population.

[Cannot think of a name]

It's a new red scare. They push the same kind of strawman narrative of anarchists today as they did about communists during McCarthyism.

It's not new per se, since anarchists have really always been the political punching bag.

Doesn't even matter the political spectrum, nobody likes them.

Sacco and Vanzetti come to mind.