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2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Has the Recent Unrest in The US Led You to Change Your Mind on Who You'll Vote For?(Any Position)

Yes
10
7%
No
76
56%
I Don't Know
3
2%
I Can't Vote(too young/outside the US
47
35%
 
Total votes : 136

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Zurkerx
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Anarchy

Postby Zurkerx » Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:09 pm

Cisairse wrote:Donald Trump's approval rating is now 41.4%, the lowest it has been since November 20.

Notably, an approval rating of 41.4% and a disapproval rating of 54.3% is very close to (within MOE) that CNN poll this morning that showed Biden as 14 points above Trump. This suggestions that, unlike Hillary Clinton, Biden is successfully capturing virtually all of the non-Trump votes.


Clinton came off as condescending, out of touch, lacks empathy, and is arrogant, which led to her approval being around what Trump had in 2016. Hell, a freaking rock can relate better than she can.

Biden is the complete opposite of most of those qualities so this time will be different for Trump. Like Clinton, Biden is well defined but unlike her, Biden is much more liked. While I do suspect this 13 point gap will close in terms of Trump's favorability and as we near the election, Biden is building a coalition that he hopes to retain in the long term, one he seems to be building more and more every day. He still needs to figure out how to excite voters overall, especially young people, progressives, and Latinos, but overall, he's in a much better position than Clinton was at this point; it pays off being the nominee earlier.
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Cisairse
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Cisairse » Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:35 pm

Zurkerx wrote:
Cisairse wrote:Donald Trump's approval rating is now 41.4%, the lowest it has been since November 20.

Notably, an approval rating of 41.4% and a disapproval rating of 54.3% is very close to (within MOE) that CNN poll this morning that showed Biden as 14 points above Trump. This suggestions that, unlike Hillary Clinton, Biden is successfully capturing virtually all of the non-Trump votes.


Clinton came off as condescending, out of touch, lacks empathy, and is arrogant, which led to her approval being around what Trump had in 2016. Hell, a freaking rock can relate better than she can.

Biden is the complete opposite of most of those qualities so this time will be different for Trump. Like Clinton, Biden is well defined but unlike her, Biden is much more liked. While I do suspect this 13 point gap will close in terms of Trump's favorability and as we near the election, Biden is building a coalition that he hopes to retain in the long term, one he seems to be building more and more every day. He still needs to figure out how to excite voters overall, especially young people, progressives, and Latinos, but overall, he's in a much better position than Clinton was at this point; it pays off being the nominee earlier.


Joe Biden may not have as much of a problem among young voters as you think. Biden leads Trump by double-digit percentages among all voters under the age of 44, including leading Trump by 24.1 points among 18-29 year olds (which is better than Hillary polled among that group).
Biden leads all voters under age 49 easily, with a clear negative trend of support the older you go. However, Biden's increased levels of support among older people compared to H. Clinton may be enough to deliver him a comfortable victory on its own.
Image
Image
Last edited by Cisairse on Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Now it's clear as a pillar of smoke
The details of the above post are subject to leftist infighting.

And broken Starbucks glass

Yeah, I support my troops
They wave black flags
They wear black masks

User avatar
Zurkerx
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Posts: 7450
Founded: Jan 20, 2011
Anarchy

Postby Zurkerx » Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:44 pm

Cisairse wrote:
Zurkerx wrote:
Clinton came off as condescending, out of touch, lacks empathy, and is arrogant, which led to her approval being around what Trump had in 2016. Hell, a freaking rock can relate better than she can.

Biden is the complete opposite of most of those qualities so this time will be different for Trump. Like Clinton, Biden is well defined but unlike her, Biden is much more liked. While I do suspect this 13 point gap will close in terms of Trump's favorability and as we near the election, Biden is building a coalition that he hopes to retain in the long term, one he seems to be building more and more every day. He still needs to figure out how to excite voters overall, especially young people, progressives, and Latinos, but overall, he's in a much better position than Clinton was at this point; it pays off being the nominee earlier.


Joe Biden may not have as much of a problem among young voters as you think. Biden leads Trump by double-digit percentages among all voters under the age of 44, including leading Trump by 24.1 points among 18-29 year olds (which is better than Hillary polled among that group).
Biden leads all voters under age 49 easily, with a clear negative trend of support the older you go. However, Biden's increased levels of support among older people compared to H. Clinton may be enough to deliver him a comfortable victory on its own.
Image
Image


Indeed: Biden has siphoned off some older voters from Trump while retaining what Clinton had in 2016. That said, Biden needs to ensure they remain in his column and not take them for granted, which is why he needs to solidify his base now: because he's bound to take a few hits from Trump. We're five months away: anything is possible, and Biden's VP could either strengthen or weaken his ticket.
A Golden Civic: the New Pragmatic Libertarian.
My Words: Indeed, Indubitably & Malarkey
Retired Admin in NSGS and NS Parliament

Accountant, Author, History Buff, Political Junkie
Begrudgingly for Biden 2020
"Try not to become a person of success, but rather try to become a person of value." Albert Einstein
"Trust, but verify." Ronald Reagan

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Jerzylvania
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Postby Jerzylvania » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:33 pm

Trump's problems with older people will likely cost him dearly in FL, ME, PA, AZ, WI, and maybe even OH and IA. These are all states with an elderly population between 17 - 21%. It could be the difference maker between a nail biting close election night and a Biden cakewalk.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:35 pm

Jerzylvania wrote:Trump's problems with older people will likely cost him dearly in FL, ME, PA, AZ, WI, and maybe even OH and IA. These are all states with an elderly population between 17 - 21%. It could be the difference maker between a nail biting close election night and a Biden cakewalk.

Hopefully its a cakewalk. I don;'t want the victor not known for days giving Trump and Republicans fodder to cry fraud

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Cisairse
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Founded: Mar 17, 2017
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Cisairse » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:38 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Jerzylvania wrote:Trump's problems with older people will likely cost him dearly in FL, ME, PA, AZ, WI, and maybe even OH and IA. These are all states with an elderly population between 17 - 21%. It could be the difference maker between a nail biting close election night and a Biden cakewalk.

Hopefully its a cakewalk. I don;'t want the victor not known for days giving Trump and Republicans fodder to cry fraud


They will cry fraud no matter what.
Now it's clear as a pillar of smoke
The details of the above post are subject to leftist infighting.

And broken Starbucks glass

Yeah, I support my troops
They wave black flags
They wear black masks

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San Lumen
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Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Left-wing Utopia

Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:42 pm

Cisairse wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Hopefully its a cakewalk. I don;'t want the victor not known for days giving Trump and Republicans fodder to cry fraud


They will cry fraud no matter what.


I know but I'd rather the outcome be known election night leading no credence to such claims

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Cisairse
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Founded: Mar 17, 2017
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Cisairse » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:45 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Cisairse wrote:
They will cry fraud no matter what.


I know but I'd rather the outcome be known election night leading no credence to such claims


Seems unlikely. Trump's victory didn't even seem more-likely-than-not until after midnight on Election Night 2016 (OH and FL were called before midnight, but PA wasn't called until after 1am; Dems were hoping to hold PA/MI/WI to secure victory, and none of those states were called before midnight). He didn't reach 270 until around 2:30am, when WI was called and Clinton conceded.

Add in mail-in ballots and we're talking about maybe not even knowing the day after.
Last edited by Cisairse on Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Now it's clear as a pillar of smoke
The details of the above post are subject to leftist infighting.

And broken Starbucks glass

Yeah, I support my troops
They wave black flags
They wear black masks

User avatar
San Lumen
Post Czar
 
Posts: 41989
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Left-wing Utopia

Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:53 pm

Cisairse wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
I know but I'd rather the outcome be known election night leading no credence to such claims


Seems unlikely. Trump's victory didn't even seem more-likely-than-not until after midnight on Election Night 2016 (OH and FL were called before midnight, but PA wasn't called until after 1am; Dems were hoping to hold PA/MI/WI to secure victory, and none of those states were called before midnight). He didn't reach 270 until around 2:30am, when WI was called and Clinton conceded.

Add in mail-in ballots and we're talking about maybe not even knowing the day after.

and that will give them credence to cry fraud

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Cisairse
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Founded: Mar 17, 2017
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Cisairse » Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:55 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Cisairse wrote:
Seems unlikely. Trump's victory didn't even seem more-likely-than-not until after midnight on Election Night 2016 (OH and FL were called before midnight, but PA wasn't called until after 1am; Dems were hoping to hold PA/MI/WI to secure victory, and none of those states were called before midnight). He didn't reach 270 until around 2:30am, when WI was called and Clinton conceded.

Add in mail-in ballots and we're talking about maybe not even knowing the day after.

and that will give them credence to cry fraud


Trump will cry fraud even if he wins. As long as the ballots themselves remain undisputed, we won't be seeing a repeat of 2000.
Now it's clear as a pillar of smoke
The details of the above post are subject to leftist infighting.

And broken Starbucks glass

Yeah, I support my troops
They wave black flags
They wear black masks

User avatar
San Lumen
Post Czar
 
Posts: 41989
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Left-wing Utopia

Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:01 pm

Cisairse wrote:
San Lumen wrote:and that will give them credence to cry fraud


Trump will cry fraud even if he wins. As long as the ballots themselves remain undisputed, we won't be seeing a repeat of 2000.

Hopefully major cites don't close most of their polling places out of fear.

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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:04 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Cisairse wrote:
Trump will cry fraud even if he wins. As long as the ballots themselves remain undisputed, we won't be seeing a repeat of 2000.

Hopefully major cites don't close most of their polling places out of fear.


Depends on how the pandemic goes, really.
Now it's clear as a pillar of smoke
The details of the above post are subject to leftist infighting.

And broken Starbucks glass

Yeah, I support my troops
They wave black flags
They wear black masks

User avatar
San Lumen
Post Czar
 
Posts: 41989
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Left-wing Utopia

Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:05 pm

Cisairse wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Hopefully major cites don't close most of their polling places out of fear.


Depends on how the pandemic goes, really.


It would mean millions can't vote and Trump wins easily

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Trollzyn the Infinite
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Postby Trollzyn the Infinite » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:39 pm

Cisairse wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Hopefully its a cakewalk. I don;'t want the victor not known for days giving Trump and Republicans fodder to cry fraud


They will cry fraud no matter what.


I'm worried if he loses he'll refuse to step down, and what might come of that.
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Things I've Absolutely No Time Nor Patience For
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:41 pm

Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
Cisairse wrote:
They will cry fraud no matter what.


I'm worried if he loses he'll refuse to step down, and what might come of that.


He can refuse all he wants. Once The electoral college votes its over. The moment the clock strikes noon on January 20th 2021 he is no longer president and the secret service and military will no longer take orders from him

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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:42 pm

Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
Cisairse wrote:
They will cry fraud no matter what.


I'm worried if he loses he'll refuse to step down, and what might come of that.


That's my biggest fear.

And to all those saying "WeLL thEre's A ProCEss ThaT pReVeNts It," have you seen the dismantling of the checks and balances that supposedly protect our democracy?
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:45 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
I'm worried if he loses he'll refuse to step down, and what might come of that.


That's my biggest fear.

And to all those saying "WeLL thEre's A ProCEss ThaT pReVeNts It," have you seen the dismantling of the checks and balances that supposedly protect our democracy?

The military and secret service arent going to back Trump once his term is legally over.

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Trollzyn the Infinite
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Postby Trollzyn the Infinite » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:48 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
I'm worried if he loses he'll refuse to step down, and what might come of that.


That's my biggest fear.

And to all those saying "WeLL thEre's A ProCEss ThaT pReVeNts It," have you seen the dismantling of the checks and balances that supposedly protect our democracy?


Thankfully I don't think he has enough power or influence to stage a coup and keep himself in power indefinitely. That would require military support, and he's losing that faster than France lost the Nazi invasion.
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☆ \m/ Rocker & Metalhead \m/ ☆ Anti-Communist ☆ Anti-Fascist ☆ Islamophobe ☆ Anti-Trumper ☆

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Things I've Absolutely No Time Nor Patience For
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:49 pm

Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
That's my biggest fear.

And to all those saying "WeLL thEre's A ProCEss ThaT pReVeNts It," have you seen the dismantling of the checks and balances that supposedly protect our democracy?


Thankfully I don't think he has enough power or influence to stage a coup and keep himself in power indefinitely. That would require military support, and he's losing that faster than France lost the Nazi invasion.

He doesn't. The military would respect a peaceful transfer of power. Its important to remember there is no legal requirement the President reside in the White House.
Last edited by San Lumen on Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:57 pm

Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
That's my biggest fear.

And to all those saying "WeLL thEre's A ProCEss ThaT pReVeNts It," have you seen the dismantling of the checks and balances that supposedly protect our democracy?


Thankfully I don't think he has enough power or influence to stage a coup and keep himself in power indefinitely. That would require military support, and he's losing that faster than France lost the Nazi invasion.


I don't think so either, but I can guarantee he's going to try his hand in staging multiple court battle after court battle, lawsuit after lawsuit, maybe even bring it to the SC all the while his fervent supporters get more and more aggravated.

I'm worried about violence more than anything from a Trump loss.
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San Lumen
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 2:59 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
Thankfully I don't think he has enough power or influence to stage a coup and keep himself in power indefinitely. That would require military support, and he's losing that faster than France lost the Nazi invasion.


I don't think so either, but I can guarantee he's going to try his hand in staging multiple court battle after court battle, lawsuit after lawsuit, maybe even bring it to the SC all the while his fervent supporters get more and more aggravated.

I'm worried about violence more than anything from a Trump loss.


He's going to have to give solid evidence of fraud. Former Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin tried that angle last year and most the Republican officials in the state including McConnell told him to provide evidence or concede and accept defeat
Last edited by San Lumen on Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Kargintina the Third
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Postby Kargintina the Third » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:03 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
Thankfully I don't think he has enough power or influence to stage a coup and keep himself in power indefinitely. That would require military support, and he's losing that faster than France lost the Nazi invasion.

He doesn't. The military would respect a peaceful transfer of power. Its important to remember there is no legal requirement the President reside in the White House.

Would you support a pro-Biden coup if Trump wins?
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Major-Tom
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Major-Tom » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:04 pm

Kargintina the Third wrote:
San Lumen wrote:He doesn't. The military would respect a peaceful transfer of power. Its important to remember there is no legal requirement the President reside in the White House.

Would you support a pro-Biden coup if Trump wins?


I don't think anyone has come close to implying that.
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San Lumen
Post Czar
 
Posts: 41989
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Left-wing Utopia

Postby San Lumen » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:04 pm

Kargintina the Third wrote:
San Lumen wrote:He doesn't. The military would respect a peaceful transfer of power. Its important to remember there is no legal requirement the President reside in the White House.

Would you support a pro-Biden coup if Trump wins?

I never have voiced support for anything of the sort.

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Trollzyn the Infinite
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Iron Fist Consumerists

Postby Trollzyn the Infinite » Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:06 pm

Kargintina the Third wrote:
San Lumen wrote:He doesn't. The military would respect a peaceful transfer of power. Its important to remember there is no legal requirement the President reside in the White House.

Would you support a pro-Biden coup if Trump wins?


Who the fuck would launch a coup to put Biden of all people in power? I don't even think Biden has the stones to be involved in a coup, let alone be the poster child for it.
☆ American Patriot ☆ Civic Nationalist ☆ Nondenominational Christian ☆ Third Positionist ☆
☆ \m/ Rocker & Metalhead \m/ ☆ Anti-Communist ☆ Anti-Fascist ☆ Islamophobe ☆ Anti-Trumper ☆

"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."


Things I've Absolutely No Time Nor Patience For
永远不会忘记1989年6月4日天安门广场大屠杀

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