2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[San Lumen]

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2 ... ssion=true

A federal judge has tossed out the Republican lawsuit against the Michigan redistricting commission. Under a fair map Democrat’s would likely get at least tied delegation in Congress and would probably get a majority in the state legislature in 2022


https://www.fox16.com/news/local-news/a ... s-in-2022/
Speaking of 2022 it seems it’s never too early to talk about the next cycle. Attorney General Leslie Rutledge has announced she will run for Governor of Arkansas in 2022. She would be the state’s first female governor

[Outer Sparta]

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/07/federal-judge-throws-out-republican-lawsuit-against-michigan-redistricting-commission.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

A federal judge has tossed out the Republican lawsuit against the Michigan redistricting commission. Under a fair map Democrat’s would likely get at least tied delegation in Congress and would probably get a majority in the state legislature in 2022


https://www.fox16.com/news/local-news/a ... s-in-2022/
Speaking of 2022 it seems it’s never too early to talk about the next cycle. Attorney General Leslie Rutledge has announced she will run for Governor of Arkansas in 2022. She would be the state’s first female governor

Oh geez the GOP trying to get that redistricting commission tossed. Cause they won't like losing control of the redistricting in MI and not being able to gerrymander.

[Cisairse]

I live in one! It was a super exciting week to watch the initial in-person lead of the incumbent (R) dwindle slowly hour by hour and eventually become eclipsed by the ultimately victorious (D) challenger.

Mail-in voting is great.

Was that one of those Orange County districts cause I remember a Republican getting an initial lead (Young Kim) and then it got whittled down and the Democratic candidate Gil Cisneros ultimately won.

Nah, NJ-3. The incumbent Rep. MacArthur, who looks like Lex Luthor and was first elected in 2014, initially had a huge lead over the Democratic challenger Andy Kim, who was the first Democrat of korean descent in the House (2nd overall) and had previously served as a national security aide to President Obama; over the course of the week, mail-in ballots from the western areas of the district were counted overwhelmingly for Kim, who ended up winning by a very narrow majority of roughly 1%.

It took eight days for MacArthur to concede the election to Kim.

[Outer Sparta]

Was that one of those Orange County districts cause I remember a Republican getting an initial lead (Young Kim) and then it got whittled down and the Democratic candidate Gil Cisneros ultimately won.

Nah, NJ-3. The incumbent Rep. MacArthur, who looks like Lex Luthor and was first elected in 2014, initially had a huge lead over the Democratic challenger Andy Kim, who was the first Democrat of korean descent in the House (2nd overall) and had previously served as a national security aide to President Obama; over the course of the week, mail-in ballots from the western areas of the district were counted overwhelmingly for Kim, who ended up winning by a very narrow majority of roughly 1%.

It took eight days for MacArthur to concede the election to Kim.

The only thing I remember about Tom MacArthur is that town hall he did where he got ripped apart by a constituent over his vote to repeal the ACA.

[San Lumen]

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/07/federal-judge-throws-out-republican-lawsuit-against-michigan-redistricting-commission.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

A federal judge has tossed out the Republican lawsuit against the Michigan redistricting commission. Under a fair map Democrat’s would likely get at least tied delegation in Congress and would probably get a majority in the state legislature in 2022


https://www.fox16.com/news/local-news/a ... s-in-2022/
Speaking of 2022 it seems it’s never too early to talk about the next cycle. Attorney General Leslie Rutledge has announced she will run for Governor of Arkansas in 2022. She would be the state’s first female governor

Oh geez the GOP trying to get that redistricting commission tossed. Cause they won't like losing control of the redistricting in MI and not being able to gerrymander.

They have only won the popular vote for the legislature once since gaining control in 2010. In 2016 it was margin of 3000 votes but somehow to some that’s fair and democratic

[Outer Sparta]

Oh geez the GOP trying to get that redistricting commission tossed. Cause they won't like losing control of the redistricting in MI and not being able to gerrymander.

They have only won the popular vote for the legislature once since gaining control in 2010. In 2016 it was margin of 3000 votes but somehow to some that’s fair and democratic

As for the House districts, MI-8 and MI-11 are prime examples of gerrymandering where the GOP there tried to stuff those areas with predominantly white areas. MI-8 is basically Ingham County lumped in with Livingston and northern Oakland County. MI-11 snakes around to get the white areas of Oakland and Wayne.

[San Lumen]

They have only won the popular vote for the legislature once since gaining control in 2010. In 2016 it was margin of 3000 votes but somehow to some that’s fair and democratic

As for the House districts, MI-8 and MI-11 are prime examples of gerrymandering where the GOP there tried to stuff those areas with predominantly white areas. MI-8 is basically Ingham County lumped in with Livingston and northern Oakland County. MI-11 snakes around to get the white areas of Oakland and Wayne.

Gerrymandering ought to be outlawed in every state. The state legislature has some ridiculously gerrymandered districts too

[Cisairse]

Nah, NJ-3. The incumbent Rep. MacArthur, who looks like Lex Luthor and was first elected in 2014, initially had a huge lead over the Democratic challenger Andy Kim, who was the first Democrat of korean descent in the House (2nd overall) and had previously served as a national security aide to President Obama; over the course of the week, mail-in ballots from the western areas of the district were counted overwhelmingly for Kim, who ended up winning by a very narrow majority of roughly 1%.

It took eight days for MacArthur to concede the election to Kim.

The only thing I remember about Tom MacArthur is that town hall he did where he got ripped apart by a constituent over his vote to repeal the ACA.

That's pretty much all anybody here knows him for too, which is pretty funny considering he was a member of the House for four full years and this was a Trump district.

[Cisairse]

As for the House districts, MI-8 and MI-11 are prime examples of gerrymandering where the GOP there tried to stuff those areas with predominantly white areas. MI-8 is basically Ingham County lumped in with Livingston and northern Oakland County. MI-11 snakes around to get the white areas of Oakland and Wayne.

Gerrymandering ought to be outlawed in every state. The state legislature has some ridiculously gerrymandered districts too

We need algorithmic-designed compact districts but America isn't ready for that conversation.

[Outer Sparta]

Gerrymandering ought to be outlawed in every state. The state legislature has some ridiculously gerrymandered districts too

We need algorithmic-designed compact districts but America isn't ready for that conversation.

Of course compact district design also has an obstacle in determining the partisan makeup of the state as well as any VRA-required districts. Texas has the fajita strip districts which are more or less majority-minority districts for Hispanics.

[San Lumen]

Gerrymandering ought to be outlawed in every state. The state legislature has some ridiculously gerrymandered districts too

We need algorithmic-designed compact districts but America isn't ready for that conversation.

How is that going to work?

[Cisairse]

We need algorithmic-designed compact districts but America isn't ready for that conversation.

Of course compact district design also has an obstacle in determining the partisan makeup of the state as well as any VRA-required districts. Texas has the fajita strip districts which are more or less majority-minority districts for Hispanics.

This is very much a solved problem, though

[Cisairse]

We need algorithmic-designed compact districts but America isn't ready for that conversation.

How is that going to work?

This dude figured out how to do it in his basement, six years ago.

Of course, 538's 2018 effort was way more comprehensive, and fully accounts for the VRA issues that Outer Sparta mentioned.

(I highly recommend the interactive 538 redistricting map, it's quite fun to play around with)

[Nobel Hobos 2]

We need algorithmic-designed compact districts but America isn't ready for that conversation.

Of course compact district design also has an obstacle in determining the partisan makeup of the state

If the algorithm takes into account the distribution of the partisan vote from the last election, it's possible.
Don't take that too far though, or a red state will have all (barely) red districts, and so for blue.

The shortest splitline algorithm takes no account of partisan makeup, only population. It has other problems, but too much uniformity is not one of them.

as well as any VRA-required districts. Texas has the fajita strip districts which are more or less majority-minority districts for Hispanics.

Majority-Hispanic?

[Outer Sparta]

Of course compact district design also has an obstacle in determining the partisan makeup of the state

If the algorithm takes into account the distribution of the partisan vote from the last election, it's possible.
Don't take that too far though, or a red state will have all (barely) red districts, and so for blue.

The shortest splitline algorithm takes no account of partisan makeup, only population. It has other problems, but too much uniformity is not one of them.

as well as any VRA-required districts. Texas has the fajita strip districts which are more or less majority-minority districts for Hispanics.

Majority-Hispanic?

Yep, southern Texas has a majority of Hispanic residents. Obviously deep blue or deep red smaller states won't be really based on partisan makeup, but larger states will show their partisan makeup better.

[Cisairse]

Of course compact district design also has an obstacle in determining the partisan makeup of the state

If the algorithm takes into account the distribution of the partisan vote from the last election, it's possible.
Don't take that too far though, or a red state will have all (barely) red districts, and so for blue.

The shortest splitline algorithm takes no account of partisan makeup, only population. It has other problems, but too much uniformity is not one of them.

If we just want to make more competitive seats, we can do that:



This is almost 4x more "swing" seats than the current (real world) map. In fact in this case a majority of seats are swing seats; under the current system the majority of seats are safely held by one party.

Of course this is a form of reverse-gerrymandering, where the resulting map makes NO sense in terms of giving specific communities a representative to the federal government.

[Outer Sparta]

If the algorithm takes into account the distribution of the partisan vote from the last election, it's possible.
Don't take that too far though, or a red state will have all (barely) red districts, and so for blue.

The shortest splitline algorithm takes no account of partisan makeup, only population. It has other problems, but too much uniformity is not one of them.

If we just want to make more competitive seats, we can do that:



This is almost 4x more "swing" seats than the current (real world) map. In fact in this case a majority of seats are swing seats; under the current system the majority of seats are safely held by one party.

Of course this is a form of reverse-gerrymandering, where the resulting map makes NO sense in terms of giving specific communities a representative to the federal government.

I looked at DailyKos and their non-partisan map for 2012. It was pretty on point in terms of proportionality to the national vote.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

If the algorithm takes into account the distribution of the partisan vote from the last election, it's possible.
Don't take that too far though, or a red state will have all (barely) red districts, and so for blue.

The shortest splitline algorithm takes no account of partisan makeup, only population. It has other problems, but too much uniformity is not one of them.

If we just want to make more competitive seats, we can do that:

This is almost 4x more "swing" seats than the current (real world) map. In fact in this case a majority of seats are swing seats; under the current system the majority of seats are safely held by one party.

Of course this is a form of reverse-gerrymandering, where the resulting map makes NO sense in terms of giving specific communities a representative to the federal government.

That sounds like profiling ... but OK I guess. Profiling is only bad when it's something bad being portioned out. In this case it's representation.

It's possible to have more than one criterion, and balance between them.

Representatives resulting should match the popular vote in the state.
Maximise the number of competitive districts
Group minority interests together

Of course these will sometimes pull in opposite directions, and how to weight them is a very political question.

[Cisairse]

If we just want to make more competitive seats, we can do that:

This is almost 4x more "swing" seats than the current (real world) map. In fact in this case a majority of seats are swing seats; under the current system the majority of seats are safely held by one party.

Of course this is a form of reverse-gerrymandering, where the resulting map makes NO sense in terms of giving specific communities a representative to the federal government.

That sounds like profiling ... but OK I guess. Profiling is only bad when it's something bad being portioned out. In this case it's representation.

It's possible to have more than one criterion, and balance between them.

Representatives resulting should match the popular vote in the state.
Maximise the number of competitive districts
Group minority interests together

Of course these will sometimes pull in opposite directions, and how to weight them is a very political question.

Now if we had statewide MMDs and proportional allocation based on vote counts, we'd be getting somewhere.

[Outer Sparta]

If we just want to make more competitive seats, we can do that:

This is almost 4x more "swing" seats than the current (real world) map. In fact in this case a majority of seats are swing seats; under the current system the majority of seats are safely held by one party.

Of course this is a form of reverse-gerrymandering, where the resulting map makes NO sense in terms of giving specific communities a representative to the federal government.

That sounds like profiling ... but OK I guess. Profiling is only bad when it's something bad being portioned out. In this case it's representation.

It's possible to have more than one criterion, and balance between them.

Representatives resulting should match the popular vote in the state.
Maximise the number of competitive districts
Group minority interests together

Of course these will sometimes pull in opposite directions, and how to weight them is a very political question.

I would usually count on the partisan makeup of the state, then make the districts as representative of them while keeping county boundaries and municipalities intact for the most part. Compactness wouldn't be a priority for me.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

That sounds like profiling ... but OK I guess. Profiling is only bad when it's something bad being portioned out. In this case it's representation.

It's possible to have more than one criterion, and balance between them.

Representatives resulting should match the popular vote in the state.
Maximise the number of competitive districts
Group minority interests together

Of course these will sometimes pull in opposite directions, and how to weight them is a very political question.

Now if we had statewide MMDs and proportional allocation based on vote counts, we'd be getting somewhere.

Or virtual districts, with no map at all. People would choose which "district" they're in by the candidate they want to vote for, with preference voting in case their favorite doesn't make it. A candidate who gets the minimum would be elected but only have a weak vote, while candidates with more support from voters would have a stronger vote in the House. Individual members with more popular support would be more powerful there, which makes more sense to me than voters having to choose the lesser of two evils every time.

Of course it's impossible. Representatives all have equal voting power in the House.

[Cisairse]

Of course it's impossible. Representatives all have equal voting power in the House.

Not necessarily. Committee seats are important, and I believe House leadership would be more inclined to give chairmanships to members with "safe" seats (thus with a greater degree of support by their constituents.)

[Outer Sparta]

Now if we had statewide MMDs and proportional allocation based on vote counts, we'd be getting somewhere.

Or virtual districts, with no map at all. People would choose which "district" they're in by the candidate they want to vote for, with preference voting in case their favorite doesn't make it. A candidate who gets the minimum would be elected but only have a weak vote, while candidates with more support from voters would have a stronger vote in the House. Individual members with more popular support would be more powerful there, which makes more sense to me than voters having to choose the lesser of two evils every time.

Of course it's impossible. Representatives all have equal voting power in the House.

Or just go proportional voting for each state. Then you'll have list politicians and no need for districts (unless you do MMP).

[Nobel Hobos 2]

That sounds like profiling ... but OK I guess. Profiling is only bad when it's something bad being portioned out. In this case it's representation.

It's possible to have more than one criterion, and balance between them.

Representatives resulting should match the popular vote in the state.
Maximise the number of competitive districts
Group minority interests together

Of course these will sometimes pull in opposite directions, and how to weight them is a very political question.

I would usually count on the partisan makeup of the state, then make the districts as representative of them while keeping county boundaries and municipalities intact for the most part. Compactness wouldn't be a priority for me.

Partisan makeup of the state, partisan result in districts approximates that, we agree on.

But to the boundaries: given how much population is concentrated in cities, I think you'd have a lot of roundish-blob districts that are all city, which will have an accidental gerrymander effect against Democrats. Something like that is probably going to happen from "grouping like interests together" so I'm wary of doubling down that way. City boundaries shouldn't have effect, but I can see the sense in letting county boundaries "pull the line". If only so people know which district they live in.

[Outer Sparta]

I would usually count on the partisan makeup of the state, then make the districts as representative of them while keeping county boundaries and municipalities intact for the most part. Compactness wouldn't be a priority for me.

Partisan makeup of the state, partisan result in districts approximates that, we agree on.

But to the boundaries: given how much population is concentrated in cities, I think you'd have a lot of roundish-blob districts that are all city, which will have an accidental gerrymander effect against Democrats. Something like that is probably going to happen from "grouping like interests together" so I'm wary of doubling down that way. City boundaries should have effect, but I can see the sense in letting county boundaries "pull the line". If only so people know which district they live in.

Of course the districts encompassing cities will be more of a fickle to deal with, so that'll be a little bit of an issue.