NationStates

La xinga wrote:https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Is my simulator NORMAL?!

I got 344 Trump, 188 Biden!

Trump won all his 2016 states and Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and the main Maine.

Like, you wish!

The simulators aren’t really all that great. For example I ran it 10 times and Trump never once won

Kannap wrote:

Greater Miami Shores wrote:I love your simulator

I love that it will never happen

I love that it will happen

Greater Miami Shores wrote:

Kannap wrote:
I love that it will never happen

I love that it will happen

Put your money where your mouth is then.

This election is giving me strong 2016 vibes.

The Democrats have overconfidently nominated an old warmonger with skeletons in his closet. This has led to the alienation of a number of progressives and leftists (like me) who have decided not to vote for either major party. (Voting for Biden would set a precedent that we will bend the knee to any senile old neocon the Democrats want to push through.) The Republicans have a sort of momentum going, with many feeling empowered by Trump's racist statements. He has a very energetic cult of personality around him.

Talk about a summer of discontent, this absolutely sucks. BTW, I might as well respond to the inevitable "BeRnIe bRo" reply preemptively by adding that I don't really like Sanders much either.

La xinga wrote:https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Do this as many times a you want, I couldn't get a Trump win, can you?

Edit: I got ONE!

We did 100 simulations. Biden 89 Trump 11.

Trump has no path to victory without FL.

La xinga wrote:https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Do this as many times a you want, I couldn't get a Trump win, can you?

Edit: I got ONE!

Dresderstan wrote:

La xinga wrote:https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Do this as many times a you want, I couldn't get a Trump win, can you?

Edit: I got ONE!

I'm going to try ten times and see what i get

1st: 413-125 Biden
2nd: 357-181 Biden
3rd: 374-164 Biden
4th: 375-163 Biden
5th: 310-228 Biden
6th: 273-265 Biden
7th: 311-227 Biden
8th: 241-297 Trump
9th: 396-142 Biden
10th: 304-234 Biden

So I can say 9 out of 10 times Biden wins.

Interesting enough, that almost perfectly matches what they have run:

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulatio ... ground-270

Now here's mine:

1st: 312-226 Biden
2nd: 359-179 Biden
3rd: 341-197 Biden
4th: 397-141 Biden
5th: 357-181 Biden
6th: 274-264 Trump
7th: 402-136 Biden
8th: 375-163 Biden
9th: 375-163 Biden (Yes, got the same result twice in a row)
10th: 304-234 Biden

Alcala-Cordel wrote:This election is giving me strong 2016 vibes.

The Democrats have overconfidently nominated an old warmonger with skeletons in his closet. This has led to the alienation of a number of progressives and leftists (like me) who have decided not to vote for either major party. (Voting for Biden would set a precedent that we will bend the knee to any senile old neocon the Democrats want to push through.) The Republicans have a sort of momentum going, with many feeling empowered by Trump's racist statements. He has a very energetic cult of personality around him.

Talk about a summer of discontent, this absolutely sucks. BTW, I might as well respond to the inevitable "BeRnIe bRo" reply preemptively by adding that I don't really like Sanders much either.

Except the republicans don’t have any sort of momentum going. The momentum is on Bidens side. Trump is actually losing support left and right and doubling down on racism isn’t helping

Thermodolia wrote:

Alcala-Cordel wrote:This election is giving me strong 2016 vibes.

The Democrats have overconfidently nominated an old warmonger with skeletons in his closet. This has led to the alienation of a number of progressives and leftists (like me) who have decided not to vote for either major party. (Voting for Biden would set a precedent that we will bend the knee to any senile old neocon the Democrats want to push through.) The Republicans have a sort of momentum going, with many feeling empowered by Trump's racist statements. He has a very energetic cult of personality around him.

Talk about a summer of discontent, this absolutely sucks. BTW, I might as well respond to the inevitable "BeRnIe bRo" reply preemptively by adding that I don't really like Sanders much either.

Except the republicans don’t have any sort of momentum going. The momentum is on Bidens side. Trump is actually losing support left and right and doubling down on racism isn’t helping

That is not what I've seen. See the bit on overconfidence

Alcala-Cordel wrote:

Thermodolia wrote:Except the republicans don’t have any sort of momentum going. The momentum is on Bidens side. Trump is actually losing support left and right and doubling down on racism isn’t helping

That is not what I've seen. See the bit on overconfidence

Then maybe you are only looking for what you want to see. Because I’ve seen that Trump is hemorrhaging the 65+ vote in Florida and a lot of the Sunbelt. He can’t win without them.

He’s losing support in Georgia to where he only has a 39% approval rating. The GOP is currently having an Internal panic attack over Trumps hemorrhaging of support

If he continues on this path he will lose the election.

Greater Miami Shores wrote:

Kannap wrote:
I love that it will never happen

I love that it will happen

There's an old saying: A month is an eternity in politics.

There are four months until the election.

In what is still a fluid and ever evolving VP Process, Sen. Duckworth is emerging as a serious contender to be Biden’s running mate.



The interesting thing is from this article, however, is this key bit:

Republicans are intently watching the Biden team’s actions, with Trump allies preparing to unleash a barrage of attacks on whoever emerges as the running mate, according to people familiar with the plans.

Biden himself has proven largely impervious to Trump’s attacks, and Trump aides hope the vice presidential nominee — a woman who could be more liberal and less familiar than Biden — will prove more vulnerable to criticism.

The attacks could be bolstered by Biden’s age, 77, and the possibility that he would only serve one term, making his running mate something of a president-in-waiting.

“Republicans are more likely than ever to hammer the Democratic vice presidential nominee,” said Dan Eberhart, an oil industry executive and Trump donor. “Biden is boxed in by the progressives in the party — he has to pick a woman and someone who is relatively far to the left of himself. That’s going to provide natural openings for the campaign to draw contrasts.”

So it seems Republicans are admitting it's almost impossible to politically attack Biden, which is somewhat of a surprise for me. That being said, their plan to attack the VP could backfire, especially if it's a veteran like Duckworth. And it seems that August 1st Deadline is "slipping", which I'm not exactly sure what that means but I feel that means they're pushing the date closer to the Convention. Either way, it seems there's still a greater likelihood it'll be a Black woman though no one has no clue who Biden will select.

I don’t know if anyone’s mentioned this, but Burgess Owens beat all the establishment corporate Republicans in his district and won the primary

Yes I’m talking about the man who returned a kickoff for 80 yards with the New York Jets and got a touchdown, then proceeded to win the Super Bowl with the Oakland Raiders

Zurkerx wrote:In what is still a fluid and ever evolving VP Process, Sen. Duckworth is emerging as a serious contender to be Biden’s running mate.

As Joe Biden pushes ahead with his search for a running mate, Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) has quietly emerged as a serious contender, according to three people with knowledge of the selection process, one of several developing dynamics as the search enters its final weeks.

Duckworth is a Purple Heart recipient and veteran of the Iraq War, the only finalist with military combat experience — and as a woman of Thai and Chinese descent, one of several candidates of color under consideration. While she has a lower profile than some rivals, she is being taken seriously by Biden’s team, according to the people with knowledge of the search, one of whom said she has lately received strong consideration.

Former Senate majority leader Harry M. Reid, who has been in direct contact with the Biden campaign about its search, said in a recent interview there was a “lot of attention” lately on Duckworth, whom he called “a highly decorated woman.”

Reid suggested Duckworth’s qualifications are getting more notice. “You had all the other names there, and it was as if she didn’t exist,” Reid (D-Nev.) said. “And suddenly people began to look at her — this highly decorated woman, member of Congress, senator.”

Two others with knowledge of the search said Duckworth has been attracting notable interest from the campaign, including one who said Duckworth had left a strong impression on at least part of the Biden team. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

The Biden campaign declined to comment. A Duckworth spokesman also declined to comment.

Duckworth’s emergence comes as some Biden allies say former senator Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), a close friend of Biden’s, is taking a primary role in the search process. It is also unfolding as Republicans prepare to launch fierce attacks on whoever is chosen as running mate, believing that person might present an easier target than Biden himself.

As the vetting continues, the people with knowledge of the search say that it remains fluid and that it’s far from clear whom Biden will select, with Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) still seen by many Biden allies as a favorite and other prospects very much in the mix. Some Biden allies said privately that while Duckworth is an appealing candidate, they don’t think she will ultimately be chosen.

Beyond Duckworth’s relative inexperience on the national stage, her selection would frustrate those who are pushing Biden to choose an African American, saying the issues raised by protesters in recent weeks highlight the need for someone who understands the black experience in America.

In an interview Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Duckworth said she felt black female voters “are a key to the victory for Democrats.”

But she added that the Biden campaign has its “own process that they are going through, and I’m sure Vice President Biden will pick the right person to be next to him as he digs this country out of the mess that Donald Trump has put us in.”

Duckworth recently moved to block promotions for 1,123 senior members of the military as a way to extract assurances from Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper that he would not retaliate against an Army officer, Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, for his role in the impeachment proceedings against President Trump.

Biden, who has said his running mate will be a woman, is mulling a diverse list of candidates. Those who have received close consideration include Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), former United Nations ambassador Susan E. Rice and New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D), according to people with knowledge of the situation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private talks. Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) has also been vetted by the campaign.

While some of the candidates have adopted the traditional posture of not promoting themselves publicly for the job, others, like Rice, have been more open about touting their credentials. With Biden’s commitment to choose a woman and the public debate about whether she should be African American, this has been an unusually open search process.

“Joe Biden needs to make the decision as to who he thinks will be his best running mate, and I will do my utmost, drawing on my experience of years in government, years of making the bureaucracy work,” Rice said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet The Press.

She added: “I’ve worked on multiple campaigns, presidential campaigns. I’ve been on the campaign trail as a surrogate and I’m going to do everything I can to help get Joe Biden elected and to help him succeed as president, whether I’m his running mate or I’m a door knocker.”

Biden initially said he planned to name his running mate by Aug. 1 but recently suggested that deadline could slip. As the prospects have been scrutinized, Dodd has cemented his position as a central figure in the process, according to the people briefed on the situation.

Dodd, 76, is one of four co-chairs of the selection committee, but “it’s obvious that Dodd is the chair of the group,” said Reid, who has spoken directly to Dodd.

Some groups have raised concerns about Biden’s decision to name Dodd to the selection committee. In the 1980s, Dodd allegedly behaved inappropriately with a waitress at La Brasserie in Washington, according to a GQ article that described an alleged encounter involving late senator Edward Kennedy physically forcing himself on a waitress.

Dodd did not respond to a request for comment Sunday.

Republicans are intently watching the Biden team’s actions, with Trump allies preparing to unleash a barrage of attacks on whoever emerges as the running mate, according to people familiar with the plans.

Biden himself has proven largely impervious to Trump’s attacks, and Trump aides hope the vice presidential nominee — a woman who could be more liberal and less familiar than Biden — will prove more vulnerable to criticism.

The attacks could be bolstered by Biden’s age, 77, and the possibility that he would only serve one term, making his running mate something of a president-in-waiting.

“Republicans are more likely than ever to hammer the Democratic vice presidential nominee,” said Dan Eberhart, an oil industry executive and Trump donor. “Biden is boxed in by the progressives in the party — he has to pick a woman and someone who is relatively far to the left of himself. That’s going to provide natural openings for the campaign to draw contrasts.”

America Rising, a conservative organization, has been filing Freedom of Information Act requests to get background on the prospects, according to a person familiar with the group’s activities.

Those close to Biden’s process say his campaign is anticipating the GOP attacks and factoring them into the search, and they argue that Republican attacks could backfire.

One person with knowledge of the system recently said that more in-depth interviews by Biden and his staff are expected to be arranged and conducted at some point.

Some Democrats do not expect Biden to name his pick until shortly before the Democratic National Convention, which is slated to begin on Aug. 17. That would be a more traditional time to name a selection, and it would avoid giving Trump a target in the intervening weeks.

“My only admonition is: Don’t rush into this,” Reid said. “Because things change significantly.”

The interesting thing is from this article, however, is this key bit:

Republicans are intently watching the Biden team’s actions, with Trump allies preparing to unleash a barrage of attacks on whoever emerges as the running mate, according to people familiar with the plans.

Biden himself has proven largely impervious to Trump’s attacks, and Trump aides hope the vice presidential nominee — a woman who could be more liberal and less familiar than Biden — will prove more vulnerable to criticism.

The attacks could be bolstered by Biden’s age, 77, and the possibility that he would only serve one term, making his running mate something of a president-in-waiting.

“Republicans are more likely than ever to hammer the Democratic vice presidential nominee,” said Dan Eberhart, an oil industry executive and Trump donor. “Biden is boxed in by the progressives in the party — he has to pick a woman and someone who is relatively far to the left of himself. That’s going to provide natural openings for the campaign to draw contrasts.”

So it seems Republicans are admitting it's almost impossible to politically attack Biden, which is somewhat of a surprise for me. That being said, their plan to attack the VP could backfire, especially if it's a veteran like Duckworth. And it seems that August 1st Deadline is "slipping", which I'm not exactly sure what that means but I feel that means they're pushing the date closer to the Convention. Either way, it seems there's still a greater likelihood it'll be a Black woman though no one has no clue who Biden will select.

If Duckworth is chosen (which frankly I wouldn't be opposed of), imagine what the GOP will try to attack. Trying to go for the veteran angle?

This post can fit on the statues, the anti police and election thread, because all 3 threads are interrelated, but they each deserve their own threads. Look what I found, dishonorable, disgraceful and shameful: Leftist anti Fascist and Black Lives Matter supporters unite to trash America on the 4th of July 2020:
https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election ... -july-4th/

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... -4-chants/
It should be illegal to do this to the US Flag and burn it, because the flag represents the nation that gives them the right to protest peacefully. To me it is clear Black Lives Matters agenda is more than just justice for George Floyd, is more than just justice against bad cops, is more than just against Trump, am I right, am I wrong or am I right?

The Andromeda Island Group wrote:

Greater Miami Shores wrote:I love that it will happen

There's an old saying: A month is an eternity in politics.

There are four months until the election.

It's "a week is a long time in politics" actually.
What you have there is only as old as your post.

Greater Miami Shores wrote:It should be illegal to do this to the US Flag and burn it, because the flag represents the nation that gives them the right to protest peacefully.

So tell me, why do you hate America?

Galloism wrote:

Greater Miami Shores wrote:It should be illegal to do this to the US Flag and burn it, because the flag represents the nation that gives them the right to protest peacefully.

So tell me, why do you hate America?

lol, I'm having a lol attack,

Greater Miami Shores wrote:It should be illegal to do this to the US Flag and burn it

It's constitutionally protected free speech.
You don't even want to know what I think of people who value the flag more than the constitution.

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:

Greater Miami Shores wrote:It should be illegal to do this to the US Flag and burn it

It's constitutionally protected free speech.
You don't even want to know what I think of people who value the flag more than the constitution.

Reread my post above in full context. It should be illegal to do this to the US Flag and burn it, because the flag represents the nation that gives them the right to protest peacefully. This is not me hating America, this is not me hating freedom. The Protestors on the video saying F to the 4th of July are hating America, the Protestors stomping on the US Flag that represents the nation that gives them the right to protest peacefully is shameful:
Black Lives Matter supporters unite to trash America on the 4th of July 2020:
https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election ... -july-4th/

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... -4-chants/

I support their rights to protest peacefully, I support your rights to post all your con views to me and anyone on NS.

Thank you for changing your mind, not putting me on ignore when we strongly disagree with each other, and quoting me from time to time with your con views and posts.

Greater Miami Shores wrote:

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
It's constitutionally protected free speech.
You don't even want to know what I think of people who value the flag more than the constitution.

Reread my post above in full context. It should be illegal to do this to the US Flag and burn it, because the flag represents the nation that gives them the right to protest peacefully. This is not me hating America, this is not me hating freedom. The Protestors on the video saying F to the 4th of July are hating America, the Protestors stomping on the US Flag that represents the nation that gives them the right to protest peacefully is shameful:
Black Lives Matter supporters unite to trash America on the 4th of July 2020:
https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election ... -july-4th/

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... -4-chants/

I support their rights to protest peacefully, I support your rights to post all your con views to me and anyone on NS.

Thank you for changing your mind, not putting me on ignore when we strongly disagree with each other, and quoting me from time to time with your con views and posts.

Property rights, reigning supreme over all other rights, should take priority here.

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:

The Andromeda Island Group wrote:
There's an old saying: A month is an eternity in politics.

There are four months until the election.

It's "a week is a long time in politics" actually.
What you have there is only as old as your post.

The point is that it's way to early to be confident about much of anything as far as the 2020 Election.
Much thanks for hipping me to the correct quote, which was supposedly first uttered by Harold Wilson.

Northern Davincia wrote:

Greater Miami Shores wrote:Reread my post above in full context. It should be illegal to do this to the US Flag and burn it, because the flag represents the nation that gives them the right to protest peacefully. This is not me hating America, this is not me hating freedom. The Protestors on the video saying F to the 4th of July are hating America, the Protestors stomping on the US Flag that represents the nation that gives them the right to protest peacefully is shameful:
Black Lives Matter supporters unite to trash America on the 4th of July 2020:
https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election ... -july-4th/

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... -4-chants/

I support their rights to protest peacefully, I support your rights to post all your con views to me and anyone on NS.

Thank you for changing your mind, not putting me on ignore when we strongly disagree with each other, and quoting me from time to time with your con views and posts.

Property rights, reigning supreme over all other rights, should take priority here.

I have no idea what the heck you say. The US Flag is the US Flag and it should be respected, the 4th of July should be respected, it is shameful. But it is their right to protest peacefully.

No State Here wrote:I don’t know if anyone’s mentioned this, but Burgess Owens beat all the establishment corporate Republicans in his district and won the primary

Yes I’m talking about the man who returned a kickoff for 80 yards with the New York Jets and got a touchdown, then proceeded to win the Super Bowl with the Oakland Raiders

He's also crazy.

Greater Miami Shores wrote:

Northern Davincia wrote:Property rights, reigning supreme over all other rights, should take priority here.

I have no idea what the heck you say. The US Flag is the US Flag and it should be respected, the 4th of July should be respected, it is shameful. But it is their right to protest peacefully.

Respect is earned; not given.

United States of Devonta wrote:

No State Here wrote:I don’t know if anyone’s mentioned this, but Burgess Owens beat all the establishment corporate Republicans in his district and won the primary

Yes I’m talking about the man who returned a kickoff for 80 yards with the New York Jets and got a touchdown, then proceeded to win the Super Bowl with the Oakland Raiders

He's also crazy.

A Black African American Republican supporter of Republican Presidents Trump and Ronald Reagan, awesome. Shame on the Black African American Pastor that called Black Republicans mentally ill People.

According to Wikipedia:
Owens has described his views as “very conservative.”[citation needed] In June 2019, Owens, who is black, provided testimony to a United States House Committee on the Judiciary subcommittee opposing a bill that advocated reparations for slavery.[2] Owens has also criticized U.S. national anthem protests and Colin Kaepernick.[3] In November 2019, Owens called Donald Trump "an advocate for black Americans."[4] He is a frequent guest contributor on Fox News.

At a June 1, 2020 Republican primary debate, he stated his position that Democrats in Washington are held in thrall by Marxists and socialists, whom he described as enemies of America. “The days of Ronald Reagan and Tip O'Neill are over. We’re dealing with people who hate our country,” Owens stated. He also stated his position that the Affordable Care Act should be repealed, and stated support for President Trump.[5]
On June 30, 2020, he won the primary with 43% of the vote, defeating Utah State Representative Kim Coleman by a twenty-point margin. Owens also defeated challengers Jay McFarland and Trent Christensen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burgess_Owens