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2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Has the Recent Unrest in The US Led You to Change Your Mind on Who You'll Vote For?(Any Position)

Yes
10
7%
No
76
56%
I Don't Know
3
2%
I Can't Vote(too young/outside the US
47
35%
 
Total votes : 136

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:48 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
A recently passed law does not allow returns to be released for two hours after polls closed. Why I do not know.


Most likely to make sure that at least a significant part of each county has been counted before folks like us make predictions and get them wrong. As it is, there's only one race there most of us are watching.


The Governor's election correct? If Huntsman wins he will be the first third term governor in Utah history I believe

Plus Colorado Three is all but official legendary pundit Dave Wasserman has called it for Boebert. Quite the upset. I don't think anyone was expecting that. Republicans seem intent on nominating whomever is the craziest.
Last edited by San Lumen on Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:49 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Most likely to make sure that at least a significant part of each county has been counted before folks like us make predictions and get them wrong. As it is, there's only one race there most of us are watching.


The Governor's election correct? If Huntsman wins he will be the first third term governor in Utah history I believe

Plus Colorado Three is all but official legendary pundit Dave Wasserman has called it for Boebert. Quite the upset. I don't think anyone was expecting that.


No, we just weren't paying attention,it happens.

I love that the Wiki page for Colorado's races now has her described as a restaurant owner and QAnon cultist.
Last edited by Shrillland on Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:55 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
The Governor's election correct? If Huntsman wins he will be the first third term governor in Utah history I believe

Plus Colorado Three is all but official legendary pundit Dave Wasserman has called it for Boebert. Quite the upset. I don't think anyone was expecting that.


No, we just weren't paying attention,it happens.

I love that the Wiki page for Colorado's races now has her described as a restaurant owner and QAnon cultist.


Its a fairly red district but not unwinnable for the Democrat. It would take a fairly large wave for it to fall and if it does it will likely be a one term rental.

I wouldn't write her off as too crazy to win the general.

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:57 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
No, we just weren't paying attention,it happens.

I love that the Wiki page for Colorado's races now has her described as a restaurant owner and QAnon cultist.


Its a fairly red district but not unwinnable for the Democrat. It would take a fairly large wave for it to fall and if it does it will likely be a one term rental.

I wouldn't write her off as too crazy to win the general.


I wouldn't put too much faith in her to do so myself. Tipton's fairly mainstream, and the district's elected Democrats before, John Salazar held it for three terms. Remember, it's only ranked as +5 on the PVI rating thanks to Pueblo and the ski resort villages.
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:58 pm

Also, SQ 802 is once again called Approved. Oklahoma has expanded Medicaid to ACA levels.
Last edited by Shrillland on Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:01 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
Its a fairly red district but not unwinnable for the Democrat. It would take a fairly large wave for it to fall and if it does it will likely be a one term rental.

I wouldn't write her off as too crazy to win the general.


I wouldn't put too much faith in her to do so myself. Tipton's fairly mainstream, and the district's elected Democrats before, John Salazar held it for three terms. Remember, it's only ranked as +5 on the PVI rating thanks to Pueblo and the ski resort villages.


The ski resorts are quite blue but the district does have a number of very red counties. It depends on where turnout it is higher

Greene therefore has a better chance of winning her runoff than this woman does in the general. Don't get me wrong I don't want a conspiracy theorist in any seat in Congress.

We won't know about Greene until August though. Should she win its a guarantee she wins the general.
Last edited by San Lumen on Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:31 pm

Outer Sparta wrote:
South Odreria 2 wrote:The left constantly runs scared of the notion of “electability” and takes for granted that it’s a weakness in primaries. We need to embrace the concept because leftwing candidates genuinely are more electable in a lot of places.

It's all about running the best candidate for each district. A unique progressive candidate could run in swing districts if they have a certain appeal, but those are rare to find.


It all depends on the message, right. A candidate in a swing district with a distinctly AOC-esque message and delivery will get clobbered, a progressive who can appeal to Republicans through a well-crafted mix of progressivism, populism and focus on local issues always has a solid chance.
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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:33 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
The Governor's election correct? If Huntsman wins he will be the first third term governor in Utah history I believe

Plus Colorado Three is all but official legendary pundit Dave Wasserman has called it for Boebert. Quite the upset. I don't think anyone was expecting that.


No, we just weren't paying attention,it happens.

I love that the Wiki page for Colorado's races now has her described as a restaurant owner and QAnon cultist.


People are fucking nuts, man. That said, having been to that district a ton, a lot of the Republicans there seem to be more moderate, hence my genuine surprise at Tipton's loss. The Republicans outside Pueblo, Durango, they're not really comparable (in my limited view) to Republicans in the ruby red East Colorado.
Last edited by Major-Tom on Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:33 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Outer Sparta wrote:It's all about running the best candidate for each district. A unique progressive candidate could run in swing districts if they have a certain appeal, but those are rare to find.


It all depends on the message, right. A candidate in a swing district with a distinctly AOC-esque message and delivery will get clobbered, a progressive who can appeal to Republicans through a well-crafted mix of progressivism, populism and focus on local issues always has a solid chance.


I guess we should nominate only progressives for statewide office and in red districts. They will have solid chance of winning every time or come very close.

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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:35 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
It all depends on the message, right. A candidate in a swing district with a distinctly AOC-esque message and delivery will get clobbered, a progressive who can appeal to Republicans through a well-crafted mix of progressivism, populism and focus on local issues always has a solid chance.


I guess we should nominate only progressives for statewide office and in red districts. They will have solid chance of winning every time or come very close.


Eh, nah, as is true in many facets of politics, a case by case basis should be applied and analyzed. Even then, the best of pundits and idiots online such as myself can never truly know whether a candidate will excel or falter, we can only do the best with the information we're given.
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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:37 pm

Hoping Huntsman hangs on, he's a remarkably effective and level-headed politician.
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Postby Ameriganastan » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:37 pm

Well, it's McGrath VS McConnell officially here in Kentucky.

I don't really like her, but I like turtleface Mitch even less. So I guess I'm pulling for her.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
I guess we should nominate only progressives for statewide office and in red districts. They will have solid chance of winning every time or come very close.


Eh, nah, as is true in many facets of politics, a case by case basis should be applied and analyzed. Even then, the best of pundits and idiots online such as myself can never truly know whether a candidate will excel or falter, we can only do the best with the information we're given.

I agree that a candidate should fit the district. Someone like AOC isn't going to win in West Virginia or rural Missouri

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Outer Sparta
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Postby Outer Sparta » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:03 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
Eh, nah, as is true in many facets of politics, a case by case basis should be applied and analyzed. Even then, the best of pundits and idiots online such as myself can never truly know whether a candidate will excel or falter, we can only do the best with the information we're given.

I agree that a candidate should fit the district. Someone like AOC isn't going to win in West Virginia or rural Missouri

Interestingly someone like Katie Porter did really well in an Orange County district. A Warren progressive like her wouldn't have done well in the past due to OC's partisan leans, but today that place has shifted politically.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:04 pm

Outer Sparta wrote:
San Lumen wrote: I agree that a candidate should fit the district. Someone like AOC isn't going to win in West Virginia or rural Missouri

Interestingly someone like Katie Porter did really well in an Orange County district. A Warren progressive like her wouldn't have done well in the past due to OC's partisan leans, but today that place has shifted politically.

Orange county isn't as ruby red as it used to be.

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:10 pm

Our first calls from Utah are in:

GOP UT-Governor: Spencer Cox
GOP UT-4(Salt Lake City-Nephi): Burgess Owens

Pity. I'd hoped Huntsman would make a comeback.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:12 pm

Shrillland wrote:Our first calls from Utah are in:

GOP UT-Governor: Spencer Cox
GOP UT-4(Salt Lake City-Nephi): Burgess Owens

Pity. I'd hoped Huntsman would make a comeback.

Damm I hoped he would win too but Cox seems fairly moderate. How are you making this call though when it's apparently very close?
Last edited by San Lumen on Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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South Odreria 2
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Postby South Odreria 2 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:15 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
Eh, nah, as is true in many facets of politics, a case by case basis should be applied and analyzed. Even then, the best of pundits and idiots online such as myself can never truly know whether a candidate will excel or falter, we can only do the best with the information we're given.

I agree that a candidate should fit the district. Someone like AOC isn't going to win in West Virginia or rural Missouri

No, but people like Stephen Smith and Paula Jean Swearengin and Richard Ojeda are good candidates in West Virginia, and they’re not establishment democrats either.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:16 pm

South Odreria 2 wrote:
San Lumen wrote: I agree that a candidate should fit the district. Someone like AOC isn't going to win in West Virginia or rural Missouri

No, but people like Stephen Smith and Paula Jean Swearengin and Richard Ojeda are good candidates in West Virginia, and they’re not establishment democrats either.

None of them are likely to win. West Virginia is too red.

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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:30 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Outer Sparta wrote:Interestingly someone like Katie Porter did really well in an Orange County district. A Warren progressive like her wouldn't have done well in the past due to OC's partisan leans, but today that place has shifted politically.

Orange county isn't as ruby red as it used to be.

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South Odreria 2
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Postby South Odreria 2 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:32 pm

San Lumen wrote:
South Odreria 2 wrote:No, but people like Stephen Smith and Paula Jean Swearengin and Richard Ojeda are good candidates in West Virginia, and they’re not establishment democrats either.

None of them are likely to win. West Virginia is too red.

I didn’t say they were likely to win, I said they are strong candidates for that state.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:49 pm

South Odreria 2 wrote:
San Lumen wrote:None of them are likely to win. West Virginia is too red.

I didn’t say they were likely to win, I said they are strong candidates for that state.


What are Smith and Ojeda running for? Swearengin is going to get trounced by Capito
Last edited by San Lumen on Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:51 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
No State Here wrote:DeSantis is economically leftist and a welfare guy, probably the only modern Republican governor to do so. He’s an odd one in the US political landscape, usually social conservatives are economically liberal

Why do you think I like the guy?

You like the guy that's at fault for the imploding cases in Florida?
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Nobel Hobos 2
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Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:51 pm

I know it's not politically correct to make fun of people's names, but "Swearengin" is just begging for it.
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South Odreria 2
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Postby South Odreria 2 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:56 pm

San Lumen wrote:
South Odreria 2 wrote:I didn’t say they were likely to win, I said they are strong candidates for that state.


What are Smith and Ojeda running for? Swearengin is going to get trounced by Capito

Smith and Ojeda lost their primaries for governor and senator respectively.
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