2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Zurkerx]

I can definitely include a Senate Prediction Map when I do my Presidential Prediction one. As for the House, that's too complex but I can easily tell you that I see Democrats keeping their majority, and growing it slightly.

I actually posted a Senate Predictions map a few pages ago, but it got ignored, and I think most would agree with me on it tho.

My apologies for missing it. I mostly agree with you have here though I'm a bit surprise you have South Carolina as a tilt for Republican: I would have it as likely. I would also have North Carolina as a lean blue instead of likely. Otherwise, this is spot on.

[The Rich Port]

Tammy Duckworth better at least get an appointment or something, I have no idea what possesses him to pick Harris, who is controversial, and Rice, who is a nobody.

[Region of Dwipantara]

Tammy Duckworth better at least get an appointment or something, I have no idea what possesses him to pick Harris, who is controversial, and Rice, who is a nobody.

I mean Rice at least is a professional government official who worked closely with Obama and Biden during the Obama administration, which really suits Biden's terms for a "loyal" and "simpatico" veep. She haven't ever held elected office, but she isn't a stranger to public grilling either.

[The Rich Port]

Tammy Duckworth better at least get an appointment or something, I have no idea what possesses him to pick Harris, who is controversial, and Rice, who is a nobody.

I mean Rice at least is a professional government official who worked closely with Obama and Biden during the Obama administration, which really suits Biden's terms for a "loyal" and "simpatico" veep. She haven't ever held elected office, but she isn't a stranger to public grilling either.

Neither is Duckworth, and Duckworth doesn't have corruption looming over her shoulder.

[Organized States]

Tammy Duckworth better at least get an appointment or something, I have no idea what possesses him to pick Harris, who is controversial, and Rice, who is a nobody.

I mean Rice at least is a professional government official who worked closely with Obama and Biden during the Obama administration, which really suits Biden's terms for a "loyal" and "simpatico" veep. She haven't ever held elected office, but she isn't a stranger to public grilling either.

Rice will be SecState, y'all heard it here first.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

I mean Rice at least is a professional government official who worked closely with Obama and Biden during the Obama administration, which really suits Biden's terms for a "loyal" and "simpatico" veep. She haven't ever held elected office, but she isn't a stranger to public grilling either.

Rice will be SecState, y'all heard it here first.

Hasn't she been SecState before?

[Organized States]

Rice will be SecState, y'all heard it here first.

Hasn't she been SecState before?

Nope. She was National Security Advisor and Ambassador to the UN.

EDIT: She was Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs in the Clinton White House.

[Region of Dwipantara]

Rice will be SecState, y'all heard it here first.

Hasn't she been SecState before?

No, the Benghazi fiasco torpedoed her chances and she resigned from candidacy.

[Region of Dwipantara]

I mean Rice at least is a professional government official who worked closely with Obama and Biden during the Obama administration, which really suits Biden's terms for a "loyal" and "simpatico" veep. She haven't ever held elected office, but she isn't a stranger to public grilling either.

Rice will be SecState, y'all heard it here first.

I mean, yeah it makes more sense for a deep state pointwoman like her to occupy a ministerial seat instead. I also heard that she is being considered for Secretary of Defense. But who knows, maybe Duckworth will become VP after all while Harris is appointed AG (though realistically, Bass has a higher chance). Warren is a strong contender for Treasury Secretary, and if she did, the result will make a fun watch.

[Thermodolia]

Rice will be SecState, y'all heard it here first.

I mean, yeah it makes more sense for a deep state pointwoman like her to occupy a ministerial seat instead. I also heard that she is being considered for Secretary of Defense. But who knows, maybe Duckworth will become VP after all while Harris is appointed AG (though realistically, Bass has a higher chance). Warren is a strong contender for Treasury Secretary, and if she did, the result will make a fun watch.

Nah Warren is better for commerce

[-Astoria-]

Rice will be SecState, y'all heard it here first.

Hasn't she been SecState before?

I believe you're thinking of the other Rice...

[Zurkerx]

Decoding the Trump Ad Buy. After going dark on the TV airwaves last week, the Trump campaign has returned, targeting early voting states.

For six days last week, there was not a single Trump campaign ad on any television across the country. While it was an unusual time to go completely dark on the TV airwaves, with less than 100 days left in the election, the Trump team said it was part of a necessary review by its new campaign manager, Bill Stepien, who took the reins in mid-July.

What returned on Monday was a more streamlined ad campaign in four battleground states: North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona.

Why those four? Early voting.

Though campaigns have always made an extra effort to advertise in states that start voting earlier in the calendar, the pace of early voting this year is expected to accelerate exponentially amid the coronavirus pandemic. As a safer method of voting compared with showing up at crowded Election Day polling locations, early voting — both in-person and through mail-in ballots — has set records in nearly every primary election since March.

For the general election, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona are some of the earliest states to begin voting, with Georgia and Arizona starting as soon as the first week of October. Because many are expected to cast early ballots, what was once a low drum beat of August political advertising is likely to grow into a more cacophonous cascade of ads in early states.

With its new advertising strategy, the Trump campaign is returning to an older message: fighting the threat of “socialism.” Gone are the scattershot attacks on Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s relationship with China, or his age, or his position on defunding the police. Returning in one of President Trump’s new ads are the familiar faces of Republican boogeymen and women like Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, as the Trump campaign attempts to paint Mr. Biden as beholden to the far-left of his party.

If that feels familiar, it is: The Trump campaign ran an extensive ad campaign during the impeachment process, often casting it as a far-left conspiracy, with television and digital ads full of imagery of prominent progressive figures like Mr. Sanders, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota.

The new ad, which also features familiar hard-line immigration positions, appears to be a recognition that the previous attempts to define Mr. Biden had largely failed. The Trump campaign had spent more than $30 million in attack ads that mischaracterized Mr. Biden’s position on defunding the police, but the former vice president continued to climb in key battleground state polling.

Of course, just as notable are the early states the Trump campaign is not targeting in this initial return to the airwaves.

The campaign continues to stay off the air in Michigan, a state Mr. Trump won by less than 11,000 votes against Hillary Clinton in 2016 but where he has trailed Mr. Biden in most statewide polls. Michigan votes in mid-September.

Trump ads are also off the air in Pennsylvania, a state he won by less than 45,000 votes in 2016. But there, Mr. Biden is also leading, according to recent polling. Though Pennsylvania does not have expansive in-person early voting, a new law allows voters in some counties to request a mail-in ballot as early as mid-September.

And while the Trump campaign has publicly claimed Minnesota as competitive — a state that Mr. Trump lost by just 44,000 votes in 2016 but hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972 — it is not currently going back on air in the state, which also starts voting in mid-September.

The Trump Campaign is back on the airwaves- well, at least in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona. No longer is the Campaign hitting Biden on his stance on China, attacking his age, and "defunding the police" (which the Campaign spent $30 million on). Instead, they have returned to an old boogeyman: socialism. So, it's not a new strategy per se, but the Campaign figures by including imagery of Sanders, AOC, Omar, etc., they figured a "red scare" and Biden being a "puppet" of the Left kind of approach could work. I have my doubts: while the margins will tighten, I doubt it would "distract" people from the fact there's a pandemic going on.

But surprisingly, Trump isn't airing these ads in some important States: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. Michigan and Minnesota have early voting in mid-September while in PA, people can request an absentee ballot as soon as mid-September. While there are Trump SuperPACS running ads in these States, it's the clearest sign yet that Trump's chances within these States, particularly in MI and PA, are dwindling, leaving his path to 270 in extreme jeopardy. I think it's safe to say that Michigan and PA will go Blue this time.

[United States of Devonta]

Decoding the Trump Ad Buy. After going dark on the TV airwaves last week, the Trump campaign has returned, targeting early voting states.

For six days last week, there was not a single Trump campaign ad on any television across the country. While it was an unusual time to go completely dark on the TV airwaves, with less than 100 days left in the election, the Trump team said it was part of a necessary review by its new campaign manager, Bill Stepien, who took the reins in mid-July.

What returned on Monday was a more streamlined ad campaign in four battleground states: North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona.

Why those four? Early voting.

Though campaigns have always made an extra effort to advertise in states that start voting earlier in the calendar, the pace of early voting this year is expected to accelerate exponentially amid the coronavirus pandemic. As a safer method of voting compared with showing up at crowded Election Day polling locations, early voting — both in-person and through mail-in ballots — has set records in nearly every primary election since March.

For the general election, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona are some of the earliest states to begin voting, with Georgia and Arizona starting as soon as the first week of October. Because many are expected to cast early ballots, what was once a low drum beat of August political advertising is likely to grow into a more cacophonous cascade of ads in early states.

With its new advertising strategy, the Trump campaign is returning to an older message: fighting the threat of “socialism.” Gone are the scattershot attacks on Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s relationship with China, or his age, or his position on defunding the police. Returning in one of President Trump’s new ads are the familiar faces of Republican boogeymen and women like Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, as the Trump campaign attempts to paint Mr. Biden as beholden to the far-left of his party.

If that feels familiar, it is: The Trump campaign ran an extensive ad campaign during the impeachment process, often casting it as a far-left conspiracy, with television and digital ads full of imagery of prominent progressive figures like Mr. Sanders, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota.

The new ad, which also features familiar hard-line immigration positions, appears to be a recognition that the previous attempts to define Mr. Biden had largely failed. The Trump campaign had spent more than $30 million in attack ads that mischaracterized Mr. Biden’s position on defunding the police, but the former vice president continued to climb in key battleground state polling.

Of course, just as notable are the early states the Trump campaign is not targeting in this initial return to the airwaves.

The campaign continues to stay off the air in Michigan, a state Mr. Trump won by less than 11,000 votes against Hillary Clinton in 2016 but where he has trailed Mr. Biden in most statewide polls. Michigan votes in mid-September.

Trump ads are also off the air in Pennsylvania, a state he won by less than 45,000 votes in 2016. But there, Mr. Biden is also leading, according to recent polling. Though Pennsylvania does not have expansive in-person early voting, a new law allows voters in some counties to request a mail-in ballot as early as mid-September.

And while the Trump campaign has publicly claimed Minnesota as competitive — a state that Mr. Trump lost by just 44,000 votes in 2016 but hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972 — it is not currently going back on air in the state, which also starts voting in mid-September.

The Trump Campaign is back on the airwaves- well, at least in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona. No longer is the Campaign hitting Biden on his stance on China, attacking his age, and "defunding the police" (which the Campaign spent $30 million on). Instead, they have returned to an old boogeyman: socialism. So, it's not a new strategy per se, but the Campaign figures by including imagery of Sanders, AOC, Omar, etc., they figured a "red scare" and Biden being a "puppet" of the Left kind of approach could work. I have my doubts: while the margins will tighten, I doubt it would "distract" people from the fact there's a pandemic going on.

But surprisingly, Trump isn't airing these ads in some important States: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. Michigan and Minnesota have early voting in mid-September while in PA, people can request an absentee ballot as soon as mid-September. While there are Trump SuperPACS running ads in these States, it's the clearest sign yet that Trump's chances within these States, particularly in MI and PA, are dwindling, leaving his path to 270 in extreme jeopardy. I think it's safe to say that Michigan and PA will go Blue this time.

I don't think "meh socialism is bad" is gonna land on Biden like they think it is. Biden literally beat the self-proclaimed socialist in the primary, these attacks only will work on his base, not crucial swing voters. In conclusion, Trump's strategy seems to be a loosing strategy and I like it.

Trump's ad spending is telling. Like you mentioned, he is losing the rust belt and taking money out of there is a big mistake. Also, polls in Georgia showing Biden up or close to Trump must be right, according to R internals because Trump is being forced to play defense there.

[The Rich Port]

That one campaign ad with the one lady is so fucking bad.

If you're so ashamed of who you're voting for, change your vote, lady. I bet your kids hate you.

[United States of Devonta]

That one campaign ad with the one lady is so fucking bad.

If you're so ashamed of who you're voting for, change your vote, lady. I bet your kids hate you.

Can you link it? And from what campaign?

[The Rich Port]

That one campaign ad with the one lady is so fucking bad.

If you're so ashamed of who you're voting for, change your vote, lady. I bet your kids hate you.

Can you link it? And from what campaign?

Trump's, it's some lady holding up signs because she feels she can't speak her mind. Gee, I wonder why.

I tried finding it but when I type in "Trump Karen" nothing comes up.

[United States of Devonta]

Can you link it? And from what campaign?

Trump's, it's some lady holding up signs because she feels she can't speak her mind. Gee, I wonder why.

I tried finding it but when I type in "Trump Karen" nothing comes up.

Oh yeah, she's sitting on the bed and flipping flash cards. Yeah, it's more of the "silent majority" BS, that only works for his base.

[Kowani]

Trump's, it's some lady holding up signs because she feels she can't speak her mind. Gee, I wonder why.

I tried finding it but when I type in "Trump Karen" nothing comes up.

Oh yeah, she's sitting on the bed and flipping flash cards. Yeah, it's more of the "silent majority" BS, that only works for his base.

The "silent majority"...Sometimes I wish they'd stay silent.

[Neutraligon]

Trump's, it's some lady holding up signs because she feels she can't speak her mind. Gee, I wonder why.

I tried finding it but when I type in "Trump Karen" nothing comes up.

Oh yeah, she's sitting on the bed and flipping flash cards. Yeah, it's more of the "silent majority" BS, that only works for his base.

This one? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FucY0Tm ... naldJTrump

[Zurkerx]

Decoding the Trump Ad Buy. After going dark on the TV airwaves last week, the Trump campaign has returned, targeting early voting states.

For six days last week, there was not a single Trump campaign ad on any television across the country. While it was an unusual time to go completely dark on the TV airwaves, with less than 100 days left in the election, the Trump team said it was part of a necessary review by its new campaign manager, Bill Stepien, who took the reins in mid-July.

What returned on Monday was a more streamlined ad campaign in four battleground states: North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona.

Why those four? Early voting.

Though campaigns have always made an extra effort to advertise in states that start voting earlier in the calendar, the pace of early voting this year is expected to accelerate exponentially amid the coronavirus pandemic. As a safer method of voting compared with showing up at crowded Election Day polling locations, early voting — both in-person and through mail-in ballots — has set records in nearly every primary election since March.

For the general election, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona are some of the earliest states to begin voting, with Georgia and Arizona starting as soon as the first week of October. Because many are expected to cast early ballots, what was once a low drum beat of August political advertising is likely to grow into a more cacophonous cascade of ads in early states.

With its new advertising strategy, the Trump campaign is returning to an older message: fighting the threat of “socialism.” Gone are the scattershot attacks on Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s relationship with China, or his age, or his position on defunding the police. Returning in one of President Trump’s new ads are the familiar faces of Republican boogeymen and women like Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, as the Trump campaign attempts to paint Mr. Biden as beholden to the far-left of his party.

If that feels familiar, it is: The Trump campaign ran an extensive ad campaign during the impeachment process, often casting it as a far-left conspiracy, with television and digital ads full of imagery of prominent progressive figures like Mr. Sanders, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota.

The new ad, which also features familiar hard-line immigration positions, appears to be a recognition that the previous attempts to define Mr. Biden had largely failed. The Trump campaign had spent more than $30 million in attack ads that mischaracterized Mr. Biden’s position on defunding the police, but the former vice president continued to climb in key battleground state polling.

Of course, just as notable are the early states the Trump campaign is not targeting in this initial return to the airwaves.

The campaign continues to stay off the air in Michigan, a state Mr. Trump won by less than 11,000 votes against Hillary Clinton in 2016 but where he has trailed Mr. Biden in most statewide polls. Michigan votes in mid-September.

Trump ads are also off the air in Pennsylvania, a state he won by less than 45,000 votes in 2016. But there, Mr. Biden is also leading, according to recent polling. Though Pennsylvania does not have expansive in-person early voting, a new law allows voters in some counties to request a mail-in ballot as early as mid-September.

And while the Trump campaign has publicly claimed Minnesota as competitive — a state that Mr. Trump lost by just 44,000 votes in 2016 but hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972 — it is not currently going back on air in the state, which also starts voting in mid-September.

The Trump Campaign is back on the airwaves- well, at least in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Arizona. No longer is the Campaign hitting Biden on his stance on China, attacking his age, and "defunding the police" (which the Campaign spent $30 million on). Instead, they have returned to an old boogeyman: socialism. So, it's not a new strategy per se, but the Campaign figures by including imagery of Sanders, AOC, Omar, etc., they figured a "red scare" and Biden being a "puppet" of the Left kind of approach could work. I have my doubts: while the margins will tighten, I doubt it would "distract" people from the fact there's a pandemic going on.

But surprisingly, Trump isn't airing these ads in some important States: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota. Michigan and Minnesota have early voting in mid-September while in PA, people can request an absentee ballot as soon as mid-September. While there are Trump SuperPACS running ads in these States, it's the clearest sign yet that Trump's chances within these States, particularly in MI and PA, are dwindling, leaving his path to 270 in extreme jeopardy. I think it's safe to say that Michigan and PA will go Blue this time.

I don't think "meh socialism is bad" is gonna land on Biden like they think it is. Biden literally beat the self-proclaimed socialist in the primary, these attacks only will work on his base, not crucial swing voters. In conclusion, Trump's strategy seems to be a loosing strategy and I like it.

Trump's ad spending is telling. Like you mentioned, he is losing the rust belt and taking money out of there is a big mistake. Also, polls in Georgia showing Biden up or close to Trump must be right, according to R internals because Trump is being forced to play defense there.

Indubitably. If I recall correctly, they employed this strategy earlier in the year with little success. If it were Sanders, it might have an effect but it's not Sanders so... But as you mentioned, these kind of ads really only appeal to his base, indicating that the fundamental approach hasn't changed: hope for high turnout from a political minority (Trump's base) and hope the other side's numbers can't surpass that. It worked in 2016 when you had a heavily disliked Democrat like Clinton but that won't work this time.

It definitely is: I'm surprise they're making a move like this, especially given how slim his margins were the last time. This loosing strategy approach I think is a subtle admittance that they're on the losing end, and can't reverse it. At this point, it seems the plan is to minimize the damage down ballot as best as possible.

But you're right: if internal R Polls are showing a tight race in places like Georgia and Iowa, it's clear too that Trump is on the defensive and his approach is very selective; they are spending heavily in Ohio as well and Florida is their largest focus yet: around 25% of their ad spending is going to the Sunshine State. But when Biden will be spending $280 Million in 15 Key States, it shows they can go toe-to-toe with Trump's war chest. Trump suspects he's in trouble but I don't think he's fully aware how deep in trouble he is.

Oh yeah, she's sitting on the bed and flipping flash cards. Yeah, it's more of the "silent majority" BS, that only works for his base.

The base thinks it is working, aka, my family. They have gone deep into conspiracy mode now.

[Greater Miami Shores]

Oh yeah, she's sitting on the bed and flipping flash cards. Yeah, it's more of the "silent majority" BS, that only works for his base.

This one? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FucY0Tm ... naldJTrump

I don't see nothing wrong with this add. I have been to the Biden website a few times. Biden embraced the policies of the far left, like Bernie's. Biden has to raise taxes to pay for the so called free policies of the far left, Biden wants to give amnesty to 11 million illegals, his trade policies can be questioned. There is nothing wrong with this Trump add.

But I am sure Democrats and Democrat supporters will strongly disagree with us Republicans and Trump supporters.

Why does Kowani wish Trump supporters to stay silent, we have just as much right as all of you? and he is not the only one here on NS.

[United States of Devonta]

This one? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FucY0Tm ... naldJTrump

I don't see nothing wrong with this add. I have been to the Biden website a few times. Biden embraced the policies of the far left, like Bernie's. Biden has to raise taxes to pay for the so called free policies of the far left, Biden wants to give amnesty to 11 million illegals, his trade policies can be questioned. There is nothing wrong with this Trump add.

But I am sure Democrats and Democrat supporters will strongly disagree with us Republicans and Trump supporters.

Why does Kowani wish Trump supporters to stay silent, we have just as much right as all of you? and he is not the only one here on NS.

Just a few policies. Most of which a majority of the country agree with. He didn't even budge on marijuana or healthcare. Biden is no "radical leftist", you look silly saying that.

[Greater Miami Shores]

I don't see nothing wrong with this add. I have been to the Biden website a few times. Biden embraced the policies of the far left, like Bernie's. Biden has to raise taxes to pay for the so called free policies of the far left, Biden wants to give amnesty to 11 million illegals, his trade policies can be questioned. There is nothing wrong with this Trump add.

But I am sure Democrats and Democrat supporters will strongly disagree with us Republicans and Trump supporters.

Why does Kowani wish Trump supporters to stay silent, we have just as much right as all of you? and he is not the only one here on NS.

Just a few policies. Most of which a majority of the country agree with. He didn't even budge on marijuana or healthcare. Biden is no "radical leftist", you look silly saying that.

I doubt your statement is true.

lol, according to most of you leftists I look silly saying anything in defense of Trump and the Republicans, we are always wrong and you guys are always right, Based on objective reality facts, decided by those who strongly disagree with us.

[Neutraligon]

Just a few policies. Most of which a majority of the country agree with. He didn't even budge on marijuana or healthcare. Biden is no "radical leftist", you look silly saying that.

I doubt your statement is true.

lol, according to most of you leftists I look silly saying anything in defense of Trump and the Republicans, we are always wrong and you guys are always right, Based on objective reality facts, decided by those who strongly disagree with us.

You could say that Trump has married 3 women and I am sure that people on this site would agree with you.

[United States of Devonta]

Just a few policies. Most of which a majority of the country agree with. He didn't even budge on marijuana or healthcare. Biden is no "radical leftist", you look silly saying that.

I doubt your statement is true.

lol, according to most of you leftists I look silly saying anything in defense of Trump and the Republicans, we are always wrong and you guys are always right, Based on objective reality facts, decided by those who strongly disagree with us.

Everything I said was true. You should know this if you went to his website.