2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Valrifell]

GOP voters are firmly on Trump's side. He has something like an 80+% approval from Republicans and has regularly outshined Reagan by that metric.

There will be no grand betrayal of Trump after his tenure as president ends, it's not in the electoral interests of the Republican leadership.

They'll abandon him once he's outed and the GOP suffers greatly, it'll be a decade til they can recover to govern again.

We'll see, but I wouldn't just accept that as fact. It's equally likely that Trump's impression on voters forces the GOP to shift towards Trump's rhetoric permanently, since they kind of need Republicans to win elections.

[Dresderstan]

They'll abandon him once he's outed and the GOP suffers greatly, it'll be a decade til they can recover to govern again.

We'll see, but I wouldn't just accept that as fact. It's equally likely that Trump's impression on voters forces the GOP to shift towards Trump's rhetoric permanently, since they kind of need Republicans to win elections.

They'll never win national elections if they continue to go down the Trump path, they need to move away from Trump's brand of populism otherwise they' may never regain control of both Chambers or the White House.

[Valrifell]

We'll see, but I wouldn't just accept that as fact. It's equally likely that Trump's impression on voters forces the GOP to shift towards Trump's rhetoric permanently, since they kind of need Republicans to win elections.

They'll never win national elections if they continue to go down the Trump path, they need to move away from Trump's brand of populism otherwise they' may never regain control of both Chambers or the White House.

That's the conundrum, isn't it? Either they stick with Trump's rhetoric sans Trump and maintain their core registered-GOP base and hope that it was Trump's character that drove Independents away and they can still be gotten back as voters or they abandon Trump, probably alienate a significant chunk of the currently reliable GOP base, and hope they can make the Independent and suburban blocs competitive again.

Imho, I think that sticking with Trump has the better outcomes for the leadership, unfortunately, which is probably why they've not left him yet. Even after abysmal polling and repeated chances to do so.

[Dresderstan]

They'll never win national elections if they continue to go down the Trump path, they need to move away from Trump's brand of populism otherwise they' may never regain control of both Chambers or the White House.

That's the conundrum, isn't it? Either they stick with Trump's rhetoric sans Trump and maintain their core registered-GOP base and hope that it was Trump's character that drove Independents away and they can still be gotten back as voters or they abandon Trump, probably alienate a significant chunk of the currently reliable GOP base, and hope they can make the Independent and suburban blocs competitive again.

Imho, I think that sticking with Trump has the better outcomes for the leadership, unfortunately, which is probably why they've not left him yet. Even after abysmal polling and repeated chances to do so.

They can't continue with his leadership if he loses, their needs to be an interregnum of sorts to sort out the next GOP leader/hopeful in the coming years. Trump will be done once he leaves, that much is certain, it'll be up to their old leaders, or possible up and comers to decide which route to go though, Trump's character has effectively reduced them to opposition status come 2021.

[Thermodolia]

And the populists will lose, sorely.

I am not sure. Republican voters really, really hate neocons (and for good reason). Even if they defeat Trump's faction, the voters may put them back in power.

There’s going to be split in the GOP

[Kowani]

I am not sure. Republican voters really, really hate neocons (and for good reason). Even if they defeat Trump's faction, the voters may put them back in power.

There’s going to be split in the GOP

I wonder if they’ll collapse like the Whigs did.

[Dresderstan]

There’s going to be split in the GOP

I wonder if they’ll collapse like the Whigs did.

Doubtful, my best bet is they'll be in opposition for the next 8-12 years.

[Valrifell]

That's the conundrum, isn't it? Either they stick with Trump's rhetoric sans Trump and maintain their core registered-GOP base and hope that it was Trump's character that drove Independents away and they can still be gotten back as voters or they abandon Trump, probably alienate a significant chunk of the currently reliable GOP base, and hope they can make the Independent and suburban blocs competitive again.

Imho, I think that sticking with Trump has the better outcomes for the leadership, unfortunately, which is probably why they've not left him yet. Even after abysmal polling and repeated chances to do so.

They can't continue with his leadership if he loses, their needs to be an interregnum of sorts to sort out the next GOP leader/hopeful in the coming years. Trump will be done once he leaves, that much is certain, it'll be up to their old leaders, or possible up and comers to decide which route to go though, Trump's character has effectively reduced them to opposition status come 2021.

I don't know, like I expressed above I think they could go one of two ways. I honestly think that adopting the rhetoric of Trump and shunning Trump the man would be enough to bring Independents back into the fold, which wouldn't be much of an improvement from the status quo.

[Dresderstan]

They can't continue with his leadership if he loses, their needs to be an interregnum of sorts to sort out the next GOP leader/hopeful in the coming years. Trump will be done once he leaves, that much is certain, it'll be up to their old leaders, or possible up and comers to decide which route to go though, Trump's character has effectively reduced them to opposition status come 2021.

I don't know, like I expressed above I think they could go one of two ways. I honestly think that adopting the rhetoric of Trump and shunning Trump the man would be enough to bring Independents back into the fold, which wouldn't be much of an improvement from the status quo.

It could work, but will the Independents actually go vote for them because they got someone spouting Trump like rhetoric, I don't think they'd make that same mistake twice, but then again, what do I know.

[Kannap]

There’s going to be split in the GOP

I wonder if they’ll collapse like the Whigs did.

Imagine the Libertarian Party becoming the next main party, imagine that meme.

[Asle Leopolka]

I wonder if they’ll collapse like the Whigs did.

Imagine the Libertarian Party becoming the next main party, imagine that meme.

LIBRIGHT WINS AGAIN!

But seriously, the GOP was kneecapped by the religious right then the Tea Party signed their death warrant. The split has been a long time coming, it just took the older, "we'll never support abortion or non-white rights" demographic to pass away before they could see how out of touch they were with the under-50 crowd.

The dems, meanwhile, are also on the verge of a split between the socialist and moderate/neolib factions. There's not as much disconnect, though.

[The Huskar Social Union]

If Trump goes down the Republicans will tear him apart like a pack of Vultures. Everything will be heaped on him in an attempt to stay in the good graces of the voters

GOP voters are firmly on Trump's side. He has something like an 80+% approval from Republicans and has regularly outshined Reagan by that metric.

There will be no grand betrayal of Trump after his tenure as president ends, it's not in the electoral interests of the Republican leadership.

You will know more about this than i will by a considerable margin i bet, and you brought up a link as well so ill take your word for it.

[Major-Tom]

Imagine the Libertarian Party becoming the next main party, imagine that meme.

LIBRIGHT WINS AGAIN!

But seriously, the GOP was kneecapped by the religious right then the Tea Party signed their death warrant. The split has been a long time coming, it just took the older, "we'll never support abortion or non-white rights" demographic to pass away before they could see how out of touch they were with the under-50 crowd.

The dems, meanwhile, are also on the verge of a split between the socialist and moderate/neolib factions. There's not as much disconnect, though.

I'm grateful that the Democratic tent is pretty big right now, and hasn't completely spiraled into crazy factionalism like some had feared when Bernie left the race.

As for the GOP, it'll either have to evolve into a more palatable, markedly less corrupt party in the future if they want to win - or it'll just delve deeper into the far-right populist camp, thereby signing their own death warrant yet again.

[Major-Tom]

If Trump goes down the Republicans will tear him apart like a pack of Vultures. Everything will be heaped on him in an attempt to stay in the good graces of the voters

GOP voters are firmly on Trump's side. He has something like an 80+% approval from Republicans and has regularly outshined Reagan by that metric.

There will be no grand betrayal of Trump after his tenure as president ends, it's not in the electoral interests of the Republican leadership.

I disagree Val, anybody in Washington can tell you that a good portion of Republican Senators, congressmen/women etc etc, fucking hate Trump, especially right now. They're just too chickenshit to say anything because "muh re-election."

The second he loses, people aren't going to stop talking about Trump, I agree with you there. But we also know that the second he loses, more and more folks are going to come forward and investigate his Presidency, his team, etc etc, and the GOP is really going to try to distance themselves (at least some portions of it).

[Very High IQ]

whoever did the poll forgot the birthday party

[San Lumen]

That's the conundrum, isn't it? Either they stick with Trump's rhetoric sans Trump and maintain their core registered-GOP base and hope that it was Trump's character that drove Independents away and they can still be gotten back as voters or they abandon Trump, probably alienate a significant chunk of the currently reliable GOP base, and hope they can make the Independent and suburban blocs competitive again.

Imho, I think that sticking with Trump has the better outcomes for the leadership, unfortunately, which is probably why they've not left him yet. Even after abysmal polling and repeated chances to do so.

They can't continue with his leadership if he loses, their needs to be an interregnum of sorts to sort out the next GOP leader/hopeful in the coming years. Trump will be done once he leaves, that much is certain, it'll be up to their old leaders, or possible up and comers to decide which route to go though, Trump's character has effectively reduced them to opposition status come 2021.

with the cult like following he has and anyone who has crossed him losing their primaries I don't see how they can completely drop him. if they alienate his base they will alienate a important bloc for them and if they continue down their current path they will lose as well. They have painted themselves into a corner

[Neutraligon]

GOP voters are firmly on Trump's side. He has something like an 80+% approval from Republicans and has regularly outshined Reagan by that metric.

There will be no grand betrayal of Trump after his tenure as president ends, it's not in the electoral interests of the Republican leadership.

I disagree Val, anybody in Washington can tell you that a good portion of Republican Senators, congressmen/women etc etc, fucking hate Trump, especially right now. They're just too chickenshit to say anything because "muh re-election."

The second he loses, people aren't going to stop talking about Trump, I agree with you there. But we also know that the second he loses, more and more folks are going to come forward and investigate his Presidency, his team, etc etc, and the GOP is really going to try to distance themselves (at least some portions of it).

There is also going to be a good hard look at what happened when it comes to COVID.

[The Huskar Social Union]

I do hope the Democrats remember that Overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer.


Yes Trump has shit the bed and fucked it at the same time, he could still win. There is always a chance, so i hope they dont get too overconfident and blow their resources or focus.

[Thermodolia]

GOP voters are firmly on Trump's side. He has something like an 80+% approval from Republicans and has regularly outshined Reagan by that metric.

There will be no grand betrayal of Trump after his tenure as president ends, it's not in the electoral interests of the Republican leadership.

I disagree Val, anybody in Washington can tell you that a good portion of Republican Senators, congressmen/women etc etc, fucking hate Trump, especially right now. They're just too chickenshit to say anything because "muh re-election."

The second he loses, people aren't going to stop talking about Trump, I agree with you there. But we also know that the second he loses, more and more folks are going to come forward and investigate his Presidency, his team, etc etc, and the GOP is really going to try to distance themselves (at least some portions of it).

Hence why I say there will be a spilt

[San Lumen]

I disagree Val, anybody in Washington can tell you that a good portion of Republican Senators, congressmen/women etc etc, fucking hate Trump, especially right now. They're just too chickenshit to say anything because "muh re-election."

The second he loses, people aren't going to stop talking about Trump, I agree with you there. But we also know that the second he loses, more and more folks are going to come forward and investigate his Presidency, his team, etc etc, and the GOP is really going to try to distance themselves (at least some portions of it).

Hence why I say there will be a spilt

A split in the Republican party would likely benefit Democrats

[La Xinga]

Hence why I say there will be a spilt

A split in the Republican party would likely benefit Democrats

If Republican America goes kapoof, and there is no more, do you think it will be a one-party system, or do you think the dems would split up to moderate-radical?

[San Lumen]

A split in the Republican party would likely benefit Democrats

If Republican America goes kapoof, and there is no more, do you think it will be a one-party system, or do you think the dems would split up to moderate-radical?

No one said there will be no more Republican party. The party would split into a extremist wing and a more centrist wing. I don't see the same split happening in the Democrats.

The splitting in two of the Republicans would likely benefit Democrats as they would benefit from the extremist party splitting the votes.

[Valrifell]

A split in the Republican party would likely benefit Democrats

If Republican America goes kapoof, and there is no more, do you think it will be a one-party system, or do you think the dems would split up to moderate-radical?

If the Republicans actually collapse, we'll get one or two cycles of a singular Democratic Party before they decide that working together isn't working out.

[San Lumen]

If Republican America goes kapoof, and there is no more, do you think it will be a one-party system, or do you think the dems would split up to moderate-radical?

If the Republicans actually collapse, we'll get one or two cycles of a singular Democratic Party before they decide that working together isn't working out.

There is a difference between a Whig style collapse and a split

[Valrifell]

If the Republicans actually collapse, we'll get one or two cycles of a singular Democratic Party before they decide that working together isn't working out.

There is a difference between a Whig style collapse and a split

Well, La Xinga asked the question as going "kapoof", so I interpreted that as a Whig style collapse.