2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Gormwood]

Florida is currently a coronavirus Red Zone Blotch.

Combined with the senior population, probably explains why Trump's tiny grip on a pretty much reliable Republican state is slipping. Looks like the only thing miraculously vanishing in the warm air might be his relection chances.

Kinda happens when the few people that would vote for you in the Florida panhandle are the ones most at risk of being picked off by a disease you denied the existence of.

Well he still has the Cuban Americans, although the younger generation probably isn't as reliable to vote for him since they lack the irrational phobia of a communist takeover that their parents and grandparents all too often have.

Give or take a few cultists.

[Rojava Free State]

Kinda happens when the few people that would vote for you in the Florida panhandle are the ones most at risk of being picked off by a disease you denied the existence of.

Well he still has the Cuban Americans, although the younger generation probably isn't as reliable to vote for him since they lack the irrational phobia of a communist takeover that their parents and grandparents all too often have.

Give or take a few cultists.

All i know is that for reasons beyond me, 39% of Americans still support one of the gravest threats to the free world.

[Gormwood]

Give or take a few cultists.

All i know is that for reasons beyond me, 39% of Americans still support one of the gravest threats to the free world.

Probably because he makes The Libs miserable figuratively and literally, plus they see themselves in him. Great combination.

[Cisairse]

Probably because he makes The Libs miserable figuratively and literally, plus they see themselves in him. Great combination.

Also because his name has an (R) next to it.

---

Give or take a few cultists.

All i know is that for reasons beyond me, 39% of Americans still support one of the gravest threats to the free world.

40.1% as of today.

[SD_Film Artists]

Do we really though? You don't see the Irish, Slavs, or British still getting Pissy with the swedish. Even though comparitively, the Swedish slave Trade lasted for twice the length of time the Trans Atlantic Slave Trade did, and was significantly more brutal.

Probably because that is way more removed from modern day than the ramifications of slavery, which led into sharecropping and jim crow almost immediately, the effects of which are still felt today?

"Why do we need to talk about slavery when vikings enslaved people and the Brits are okay with it now" is really silly. One was 800+ years ago, the other one is only like, three generations removed from 2020.

Peoples great grandparents were slaves in the American south. People's tenth-great grandparents were slaves in Sweden.

Or because it's just a bigger political football rather than the difference between 20 generations and 6 generations. In America a person who happens to be of Caucasian decent is "white" because everything has to be about colour. Meanwhile Vikings are ok and fun

[San Lumen]

https://assets.documentcloud.org/docume ... nnaire.pdf

New North Carolina poll has Biden 51, Trump 44; Cunningham 50 Tillis 41; Cooper 58, Forest 38.

If the those margins hold especially for Governor I wonder if democrats will get every statewide office and possibly the state legislature. The Lieutenant Governor election will be historic as whoever wins will be the states first African American to serve in that position

[Cisairse]

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7007170/NBC-News-Marist-Poll-NC-Annotated-Questionnaire.pdf

New North Carolina poll has Biden 51, Trump 44; Cunningham 50 Tillis 41; Cooper 58, Forest 38.

If the those margins hold especially for Governor I wonder if democrats will get every statewide office and possibly the state legislature. The Lieutenant Governor election will be historic as whoever wins will be the states first African American to serve in that position

This would be an Obama ⇒ Romney ⇒ Trump ⇒ Biden state. Fascinating

[Ifreann]

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7007170/NBC-News-Marist-Poll-NC-Annotated-Questionnaire.pdf

New North Carolina poll has Biden 51, Trump 44; Cunningham 50 Tillis 41; Cooper 58, Forest 38.

If the those margins hold especially for Governor I wonder if democrats will get every statewide office and possibly the state legislature. The Lieutenant Governor election will be historic as whoever wins will be the states first African American to serve in that position

This would be an Obama ⇒ Romney ⇒ Trump ⇒ Biden state. Fascinating

entrapta.gif

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

Florida is currently a coronavirus Red Zone Blotch.

Combined with the senior population, probably explains why Trump's tiny grip on a pretty much reliable Republican state is slipping. Looks like the only thing miraculously vanishing in the warm air might be his relection chances.

Kinda happens when the few people that would vote for you in the Florida panhandle are the ones most at risk of being picked off by a disease you denied the existence of.

Well he still has the Cuban Americans, although the younger generation probably isn't as reliable to vote for him since they lack the irrational phobia of a communist takeover that their parents and grandparents all too often have.

They grew up being told to fear reds all the time, they’re as anti-communist as their parents

Not a bad thing though, everyone should fear a communist takeover

[Valrifell]

Probably because that is way more removed from modern day than the ramifications of slavery, which led into sharecropping and jim crow almost immediately, the effects of which are still felt today?

"Why do we need to talk about slavery when vikings enslaved people and the Brits are okay with it now" is really silly. One was 800+ years ago, the other one is only like, three generations removed from 2020.

Peoples great grandparents were slaves in the American south. People's tenth-great grandparents were slaves in Sweden.

Or because it's just a bigger political football rather than the difference between 20 generations and 6 generations. In America a person who happens to be of Caucasian decent is "white" because everything has to be about colour. Meanwhile Vikings are ok and fun

That it's a bigger political football is intrinsically linked to its relationship in the recent* history of the economic disempowerment of black groups, because immediately following emancipation they were kept poor by sharecropping and Jim Crow. Recency absolutely is the larger contributing factor as to why people think we need a better conversation about slavery and why vikings are seen as cool and fun and why everything in America is about color.

*Even if you don't think it's still a thing, mass segregation was very popular only a few short decades ago, in the 1960s.

[Gormwood]

Kinda happens when the few people that would vote for you in the Florida panhandle are the ones most at risk of being picked off by a disease you denied the existence of.

Well he still has the Cuban Americans, although the younger generation probably isn't as reliable to vote for him since they lack the irrational phobia of a communist takeover that their parents and grandparents all too often have.

They grew up being told to fear reds all the time, they’re as anti-communist as their parents

Not a bad thing though, everyone should fear a communist takeover

You'd be more realistic worrying about a zombie apocalypse.

[Ifreann]

Kinda happens when the few people that would vote for you in the Florida panhandle are the ones most at risk of being picked off by a disease you denied the existence of.

Well he still has the Cuban Americans, although the younger generation probably isn't as reliable to vote for him since they lack the irrational phobia of a communist takeover that their parents and grandparents all too often have.

They grew up being told to fear reds all the time, they’re as anti-communist as their parents

Not a bad thing though, everyone should fear a communist takeover

You grew up being told that fascism is bad and now you're a fascist.

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

They grew up being told to fear reds all the time, they’re as anti-communist as their parents

Not a bad thing though, everyone should fear a communist takeover

You'd be more realistic worrying about a zombie apicalypse.

They said as the world’s largest country was taken over by communists, against all odds, May 1st, 1950

[Cisairse]

You'd be more realistic worrying about a zombie apicalypse.

They said as the world’s largest country was taken over by communists, against all odds, May 1st, 1950

Sad!

[Gormwood]

You'd be more realistic worrying about a zombie apicalypse.

They said as the world’s largest country was taken over by communists, against all odds, May 1st, 1950

And this country is nowhere closer to Red Dawn 70 years later.

[San Lumen]

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7007170/NBC-News-Marist-Poll-NC-Annotated-Questionnaire.pdf

New North Carolina poll has Biden 51, Trump 44; Cunningham 50 Tillis 41; Cooper 58, Forest 38.

If the those margins hold especially for Governor I wonder if democrats will get every statewide office and possibly the state legislature. The Lieutenant Governor election will be historic as whoever wins will be the states first African American to serve in that position

This would be an Obama ⇒ Romney ⇒ Trump ⇒ Biden state. Fascinating

Yes it would be. North Carolina has been a swing state for awhile now though. It’s trending blue albeit slowly

[Kannap]

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7007170/NBC-News-Marist-Poll-NC-Annotated-Questionnaire.pdf

New North Carolina poll has Biden 51, Trump 44; Cunningham 50 Tillis 41; Cooper 58, Forest 38.

If the those margins hold especially for Governor I wonder if democrats will get every statewide office and possibly the state legislature. The Lieutenant Governor election will be historic as whoever wins will be the states first African American to serve in that position

I forgot Holley won the Democratic primary, Van Duyn was the projected favorite.

Josh Stein is running for reelection as Attorney General, he barely won in 2016: 50.2% to 49.8%; the only poll I can find shows him losing 43.1% to 43.3% which is within the margin of error and also features 13.7% of respondents undecided. It'll be a close election.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is running for her third term. She won with 53.8% of the vote in 2012 and with 52.2% of the vote in 2016. The only poll I can find shows her polling nine points ahead of her opponent (47% - 38%) with again, 13% of respondents undecided. I'd wager she wins her election.

The incumbent treasurer, Dale Folwell, is running for his second term. He's facing Democrat Ronnie Chatterji. Folwell won with 52.7% of the vote in 2016. I can't find any polling for this election, Chatterji barely edged out Dimple Ajmera by just almost two points in a close primary. Would be interesting to see which of the two would've won if Leatherman wasn't also running. I'd voted for Ajmera in the primary.

For Superintendent of Education, we will see Jen Mangrum (D) against Catherine Truitt (R), incumbent Mark Johnson (R) ran for Lt. Gov and lost that primary. Truitt served as Governor McCrory's Senior Advisor on Education from 2015 to the end of his term. She is vocally at odds with Governor Cooper's ideas on how public schools should be cared for and she supports reopening schools amid the coronavirus pandemic. Mangrum was an elementary school teacher from 1987 to 2001 and has been a college professor of elementary education since 2004. I can't find any polling for this election, but I personally favor Mangrum.

Democrat Beth Wood is running for re-election as State Auditor. In 2008 and 2012, she won with just under 54% of the vote. In 2016, she narrowly won by just under 2,500 votes (50.03% - 49.97%). I don't know much about her Republican opponent, it's not the same guy who ran against her in 2016. This could be a very close election again like in 2016, she could lose this time.

Secretary of Agriculture Steve Troxler (R) is running for his fifth term. In 2004, he won with just 3,000 votes but every election since then he's had a growing margin. In 2008, he won 4 points ahead of his Democratic challenger. In 2012, it was 8 points ahead. In 2016, he won by 11 points. Whether his growing margin continues into 2020 or not, I'd confidently bet money on him winning reelection against his Democratic challenger this year.

The Commissioner of Labor race will be interesting for the first time in 20 years. Incumbent Cherie Berry, who's held the office since 2001, announced early last year that she would not be seeking reelection. Jessica Holmes took the Democratic nomination without any primary challengers, with Democrats in North Carolina unifying around her to aim for an office that Dems haven't held in two decades. Josh Dobson is the Republican nominee. I cannot find polling for this election, but I seriously hope Holmes wins.

For NC Insurance Commissioner, incumbent Republican Mike Causey and Democrat Wayne Goodwin are gunning for a rematch. In 2012, Causey lost to incumbent Goodwin 51.9% - 48.1%; In 2016, Causey defeated incumbent Goodwin 50.4% - 49.6%; now Goodwin is back to face incumbent Causey. The only polling I can find for this election shows Causey leading 41.4% to Goodwin's 38.8% but also reports 19.9% of respondents as undecided. This one will be a very close election and its a tossup as to who will win.

I'm not going to dig into every single House and Senate election because that'll take forever and I don't have time right now. Democrats need to flip nine seats to have a one seat majority in the Senate and 11 seats to have a one seat majority in the House. Dems haven't had a majority in the legislature since pre-2010, so I'm not holding my breath in anticipation. We might see them gain some seats, but I don't think they'll win control of both houses, if they win control of one, this year.

[San Lumen]

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/7007170/NBC-News-Marist-Poll-NC-Annotated-Questionnaire.pdf

New North Carolina poll has Biden 51, Trump 44; Cunningham 50 Tillis 41; Cooper 58, Forest 38.

If the those margins hold especially for Governor I wonder if democrats will get every statewide office and possibly the state legislature. The Lieutenant Governor election will be historic as whoever wins will be the states first African American to serve in that position

I forgot Holley won the Democratic primary, Van Duyn was the projected favorite.

Josh Stein is running for reelection as Attorney General, he barely won in 2016: 50.2% to 49.8%; the only poll I can find shows him losing 43.1% to 43.3% which is within the margin of error and also features 13.7% of respondents undecided. It'll be a close election.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is running for her third term. She won with 53.8% of the vote in 2012 and with 52.2% of the vote in 2016. The only poll I can find shows her polling nine points ahead of her opponent (47% - 38%) with again, 13% of respondents undecided. I'd wager she wins her election.

The incumbent treasurer, Dale Folwell, is running for his second term. He's facing Democrat Ronnie Chatterji. Folwell won with 52.7% of the vote in 2016. I can't find any polling for this election, Chatterji barely edged out Dimple Ajmera by just almost two points in a close primary. Would be interesting to see which of the two would've won if Leatherman wasn't also running. I'd voted for Ajmera in the primary.

For Superintendent of Education, we will see Jen Mangrum (D) against Catherine Truitt (R), incumbent Mark Johnson (R) ran for Lt. Gov and lost that primary. Truitt served as Governor McCrory's Senior Advisor on Education from 2015 to the end of his term. She is vocally at odds with Governor Cooper's ideas on how public schools should be cared for and she supports reopening schools amid the coronavirus pandemic. Mangrum was an elementary school teacher from 1987 to 2001 and has been a college professor of elementary education since 2004. I can't find any polling for this election, but I personally favor Mangrum.

Democrat Beth Wood is running for re-election as State Auditor. In 2008 and 2012, she won with just under 54% of the vote. In 2016, she narrowly won by just under 2,500 votes (50.03% - 49.97%). I don't know much about her Republican opponent, it's not the same guy who ran against her in 2016. This could be a very close election again like in 2016, she could lose this time.

Secretary of Agriculture Steve Troxler (R) is running for his fifth term. In 2004, he won with just 3,000 votes but every election since then he's had a growing margin. In 2008, he won 4 points ahead of his Democratic challenger. In 2012, it was 8 points ahead. In 2016, he won by 11 points. Whether his growing margin continues into 2020 or not, I'd confidently bet money on him winning reelection against his Democratic challenger this year.

The Commissioner of Labor race will be interesting for the first time in 20 years. Incumbent Cherie Berry, who's held the office since 2001, announced early last year that she would not be seeking reelection. Jessica Holmes took the Democratic nomination without any primary challengers, with Democrats in North Carolina unifying around her to aim for an office that Dems haven't held in two decades. Josh Dobson is the Republican nominee. I cannot find polling for this election, but I seriously hope Holmes wins.

For NC Insurance Commissioner, incumbent Republican Mike Causey and Democrat Wayne Goodwin are gunning for a rematch. In 2012, Causey lost to incumbent Goodwin 51.9% - 48.1%; In 2016, Causey defeated incumbent Goodwin 50.4% - 49.6%; now Goodwin is back to face incumbent Causey. The only polling I can find for this election shows Causey leading 41.4% to Goodwin's 38.8% but also reports 19.9% of respondents as undecided. This one will be a very close election and its a tossup as to who will win.

I'm not going to dig into every single House and Senate election because that'll take forever and I don't have time right now. Democrats need to flip nine seats to have a one seat majority in the Senate and 11 seats to have a one seat majority in the House. Dems haven't had a majority in the legislature since pre-2010, so I'm not holding my breath in anticipation. We might see them gain some seats, but I don't think they'll win control of both houses, if they win control of one, this year.

A excellent analysis. Do you think Holley will win the Lt. Governor election?

[Kannap]

I forgot Holley won the Democratic primary, Van Duyn was the projected favorite.

Josh Stein is running for reelection as Attorney General, he barely won in 2016: 50.2% to 49.8%; the only poll I can find shows him losing 43.1% to 43.3% which is within the margin of error and also features 13.7% of respondents undecided. It'll be a close election.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is running for her third term. She won with 53.8% of the vote in 2012 and with 52.2% of the vote in 2016. The only poll I can find shows her polling nine points ahead of her opponent (47% - 38%) with again, 13% of respondents undecided. I'd wager she wins her election.

The incumbent treasurer, Dale Folwell, is running for his second term. He's facing Democrat Ronnie Chatterji. Folwell won with 52.7% of the vote in 2016. I can't find any polling for this election, Chatterji barely edged out Dimple Ajmera by just almost two points in a close primary. Would be interesting to see which of the two would've won if Leatherman wasn't also running. I'd voted for Ajmera in the primary.

For Superintendent of Education, we will see Jen Mangrum (D) against Catherine Truitt (R), incumbent Mark Johnson (R) ran for Lt. Gov and lost that primary. Truitt served as Governor McCrory's Senior Advisor on Education from 2015 to the end of his term. She is vocally at odds with Governor Cooper's ideas on how public schools should be cared for and she supports reopening schools amid the coronavirus pandemic. Mangrum was an elementary school teacher from 1987 to 2001 and has been a college professor of elementary education since 2004. I can't find any polling for this election, but I personally favor Mangrum.

Democrat Beth Wood is running for re-election as State Auditor. In 2008 and 2012, she won with just under 54% of the vote. In 2016, she narrowly won by just under 2,500 votes (50.03% - 49.97%). I don't know much about her Republican opponent, it's not the same guy who ran against her in 2016. This could be a very close election again like in 2016, she could lose this time.

Secretary of Agriculture Steve Troxler (R) is running for his fifth term. In 2004, he won with just 3,000 votes but every election since then he's had a growing margin. In 2008, he won 4 points ahead of his Democratic challenger. In 2012, it was 8 points ahead. In 2016, he won by 11 points. Whether his growing margin continues into 2020 or not, I'd confidently bet money on him winning reelection against his Democratic challenger this year.

The Commissioner of Labor race will be interesting for the first time in 20 years. Incumbent Cherie Berry, who's held the office since 2001, announced early last year that she would not be seeking reelection. Jessica Holmes took the Democratic nomination without any primary challengers, with Democrats in North Carolina unifying around her to aim for an office that Dems haven't held in two decades. Josh Dobson is the Republican nominee. I cannot find polling for this election, but I seriously hope Holmes wins.

For NC Insurance Commissioner, incumbent Republican Mike Causey and Democrat Wayne Goodwin are gunning for a rematch. In 2012, Causey lost to incumbent Goodwin 51.9% - 48.1%; In 2016, Causey defeated incumbent Goodwin 50.4% - 49.6%; now Goodwin is back to face incumbent Causey. The only polling I can find for this election shows Causey leading 41.4% to Goodwin's 38.8% but also reports 19.9% of respondents as undecided. This one will be a very close election and its a tossup as to who will win.

I'm not going to dig into every single House and Senate election because that'll take forever and I don't have time right now. Democrats need to flip nine seats to have a one seat majority in the Senate and 11 seats to have a one seat majority in the House. Dems haven't had a majority in the legislature since pre-2010, so I'm not holding my breath in anticipation. We might see them gain some seats, but I don't think they'll win control of both houses, if they win control of one, this year.

A excellent analysis. Do you think Holley will win the Lt. Governor election?

If she were running against Dan Forest I'd confidently say no, but Dan Forest is running for Governor because he's hit his two consecutive term limit. Forest won the Lt. Gov election 52% - 45% in 2016. It's difficult to say if he won because NC leans Republican or just because he was a well liked officeholder with an advantage of being an incumbent, especially when it's hard to tell if Governor McCrory lost because he was a hated incumbent or for any other reason.

She's running against Mark Robinson, neither her nor him have the advantage of being the incumbent. Robinson seems to be a bit Trump-like and has made promises like:

Fight for the life of the unborn
End Indoctrination in schools
Defend the 2nd Amendment
Make NC the Gold standard for Veterans Care
Stand up for our Law Enforcement

If Cooper wins reelection by a wide margin, it's possible Holley could also win by a few points. Expect the Lt. Gov election to be much closer than the Governor's election. It's possible she can win, but its also possible Robinson can win. Hard to really tell.

If 2016 was Dan Forest vs. Cooper instead of McCrory seeking reelection, it's very likely we'd have Dan Forest as governor right now. I think Cooper has a better chance this year since he's shown four years of good governorship, but yeah its sometimes quite hard to tell when it comes to North Carolina.

[Rojava Free State]

Probably because he makes The Libs miserable figuratively and literally, plus they see themselves in him. Great combination.

Also because his name has an (R) next to it.

---

All i know is that for reasons beyond me, 39% of Americans still support one of the gravest threats to the free world.

40.1% as of today.

That's mad stupid fr.

[Rojava Free State]

Kinda happens when the few people that would vote for you in the Florida panhandle are the ones most at risk of being picked off by a disease you denied the existence of.

Well he still has the Cuban Americans, although the younger generation probably isn't as reliable to vote for him since they lack the irrational phobia of a communist takeover that their parents and grandparents all too often have.

They grew up being told to fear reds all the time, they’re as anti-communist as their parents

Not a bad thing though, everyone should fear a communist takeover

I don't. This country is more likely to burn down tomorrow than be taken over by communists. As far as I'm concerned, theyre has beens. The Cuban regime is a has been and a leftover from the cold War which ended in 1991, and I'm more afraid of Identity Evropa, the Aryan Republican Army, ISIS, the Atomwaffen Division or the Base than I am of communist Cuba.

[San Lumen]

A excellent analysis. Do you think Holley will win the Lt. Governor election?

If she were running against Dan Forest I'd confidently say no, but Dan Forest is running for Governor because he's hit his two consecutive term limit. Forest won the Lt. Gov election 52% - 45% in 2016. It's difficult to say if he won because NC leans Republican or just because he was a well liked officeholder with an advantage of being an incumbent, especially when it's hard to tell if Governor McCrory lost because he was a hated incumbent or for any other reason.

She's running against Mark Robinson, neither her nor him have the advantage of being the incumbent. Robinson seems to be a bit Trump-like and has made promises like:

Fight for the life of the unborn
End Indoctrination in schools
Defend the 2nd Amendment
Make NC the Gold standard for Veterans Care
Stand up for our Law Enforcement

If Cooper wins reelection by a wide margin, it's possible Holley could also win by a few points. Expect the Lt. Gov election to be much closer than the Governor's election. It's possible she can win, but its also possible Robinson can win. Hard to really tell.

If 2016 was Dan Forest vs. Cooper instead of McCrory seeking reelection, it's very likely we'd have Dan Forest as governor right now. I think Cooper has a better chance this year since he's shown four years of good governorship, but yeah its sometimes quite hard to tell when it comes to North Carolina.

With views such as end indoctrination in schools, fervently pro life and standing behind police 100 percent, I would think he'd turn off a fair number of voters in key areas allowing Holley to win by a small margin.

[South Odreria 2]

Give or take a few cultists.

All i know is that for reasons beyond me, 39% of Americans still support one of the gravest threats to the free world.

I wish republicans were a threat to the free world.

[The Emerald Legion]

They said as the world’s largest country was taken over by communists, against all odds, May 1st, 1950

And this country is nowhere closer to Red Dawn 70 years later.

Largely because a small number of radical leftists aside, the majority of America is rightfully paranoid about communists.

[San Lumen]

And this country is nowhere closer to Red Dawn 70 years later.

Largely because a small number of radical leftists aside, the majority of America is rightfully paranoid about communists.

Are you serious right now? You sound like Joseph McCarthy.