2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Senkaku]

So I'm hearing rumblings about the whole "everyone dropped out and endorsed Biden therefore primary rigged" going around again.

Problem is, isn't that just an admission that Sanders' support base wasn't as wide as everyone claimed if he was dependent on a split opposition in order to succeed?

I mean, I guess? But that would mean you wouldn’t have considered a Biden win legitimate either if he’d only secured a plurality, right (as it looked like he would have to if he hoped to win before South Carolina).

As for the dropping out around the primaries, I think “rigged” is a charged word that implies it was done self-consciously and sinisterly, but it’s not really unreasonable to highlight the fact that a sudden coalescence of elites was enough, in the Democratic Party, to change the dynamic of a heavily contested primary so dramatically that it very quickly produced an unexpected result despite little evidence of popular support for that result. It’s interesting from a political lens, whether or not you like the various figures involved, that they were able to do that (especially since the GOP apparently can’t pull off such a feat), and it’s perfectly reasonable to argue that, for example, you don’t think it’s ethical or legitimate.

[Kowani]

I mean...I don't think that is true, depending on what you mean by modern. Is HW Bush modern?, Clinton?

Trump might be the first to make racism a campaign and policy feature.

Laughs in Bill Clinton welfare “reform”

[Gormwood]

So I'm hearing rumblings about the whole "everyone dropped out and endorsed Biden therefore primary rigged" going around again.

Problem is, isn't that just an admission that Sanders' support base wasn't as wide as everyone claimed if he was dependent on a split opposition in order to succeed?

Yes, but when you point this out to Bernie Bros they usually leave the conversation.

Usually the same ones who call Sanders a Judas for collaborating with Biden afterwards.

[Kannap]

Yes, but when you point this out to Bernie Bros they usually leave the conversation.

Usually the same ones who call Sanders a Judas for collaborating with Biden afterwards.

Has anybody done that?

[San Lumen]

Yes, but when you point this out to Bernie Bros they usually leave the conversation.

Usually the same ones who call Sanders a Judas for collaborating with Biden afterwards.

Anyone who would say that weren't true supporters of him to begin with and clearly think everything is some mass conspiracy

[Cannot think of a name]

Usually the same ones who call Sanders a Judas for collaborating with Biden afterwards.

Has anybody done that?

Fan fiction about 'those supporters' is a popular pastime during elections. There's going to be so many posts about x supporters doing y without a source, usually not really making a point but taking a dig.

[Zurkerx]

Several polls that were released by Spry Strategies (Rated B/C) show a close race.

You can look at them at 538 for the numbers: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Looking through these polls, I've noticed that the ideological balance is off: the options "Very Conservative" and "Somewhat Conservative" make up 45-60% of the people surveyed; "Moderate" voters make up 25-30%; the rest is "Somewhat Liberal" and "Very Liberal", the smallest of these groups. I can understand in places like Georgia and Texas where there be more conservative type voters but I find it odd that all the polls they did either show a plurality or a majority if said types of voters. Needless to say, I think we can write off these polls by them and consider them an outlier given other polls have shown Biden leading in MI, PA, and WI.

[Alcala-Cordel]

Several polls that were released by Spry Strategies (Rated B/C) show a close race.

You can look at them at 538 for the numbers: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Looking through these polls, I've noticed that the ideological balance is off: the options "Very Conservative" and "Somewhat Conservative" make up 45-60% of the people surveyed; "Moderate" voters make up 25-30%; the rest is "Somewhat Liberal" and "Very Liberal", the smallest of these groups. I can understand in places like Georgia and Texas where there be more conservative type voters but I find it odd that all the polls they did either show a plurality or a majority if said types of voters. Needless to say, I think we can write off these polls by them and consider them an outlier given other polls have shown Biden leading in MI, PA, and WI.

The fact that it's on a "liberal-conservative" scale is unproffessional as well, the term "liberal" generally referrs to center or center-right politics.

[Valrifell]

Several polls that were released by Spry Strategies (Rated B/C) show a close race.

You can look at them at 538 for the numbers: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Looking through these polls, I've noticed that the ideological balance is off: the options "Very Conservative" and "Somewhat Conservative" make up 45-60% of the people surveyed; "Moderate" voters make up 25-30%; the rest is "Somewhat Liberal" and "Very Liberal", the smallest of these groups. I can understand in places like Georgia and Texas where there be more conservative type voters but I find it odd that all the polls they did either show a plurality or a majority if said types of voters. Needless to say, I think we can write off these polls by them and consider them an outlier given other polls have shown Biden leading in MI, PA, and WI.

The fact that it's on a "liberal-conservative" scale is unproffessional as well, the term "liberal" generally referrs to center or center-right politics.

Those sections are typically self-reported from respondents, I'm pretty sure it's pretty standard for polls at this point to ask their ideological bent from "very conservative" to "very liberal", because these are colloquialisms that most Americans understand as opposed to left v. right. What good is a poll if respondents don't understand what they're being asked?

Not everyone is aware of the political axes.

[Steppe Khanate]

What’s everyone’s thoughts on third party margins this time?

I doubt Howie Hawkins will get nearly as much as Jill Stein did, mainly because the leftist base, or much of it, is more focused on taking down Trump as the first priority.

Jo Jorgensen, much like Trump in 2016, has become sort of a "meme candidate" on the internet, although I doubt anyone who doesn’t use the internet much will know about her. She seems to be much more popular with young people than Gary Johnson at this point, but not with middle aged folks, Johnson being a former governor made him a well known name on the ballot

[Zurkerx]

The fact that it's on a "liberal-conservative" scale is unproffessional as well, the term "liberal" generally referrs to center or center-right politics.

Those sections are typically self-reported from respondents, I'm pretty sure it's pretty standard for polls at this point to ask their ideological bent from "very conservative" to "very liberal", because these are colloquialisms that most Americans understand as opposed to left v. right. What good is a poll if respondents don't understand what they're being asked?

Not everyone is aware of the political axes.

^This. Americans like their politics to be kept short and simple although the majority of Americans on this site are quite the opposite.

What’s everyone’s thoughts on third party margins this time?

I doubt Howie Hawkins will get nearly as much as Jill Stein did, mainly because the leftist base, or much of it, is more focused on taking down Trump as the first priority.

Jo Jorgensen, much like Trump in 2016, has become sort of a "meme candidate" on the internet, although I doubt anyone who doesn’t use the internet much will know about her. She seems to be much more popular with young people than Gary Johnson at this point, but not with middle aged folks, Johnson being a former governor made him a well known name on the ballot

Third Parties will be lucky if they get 3% of the vote combined: this is one of those elections where the faith and direction of the country are at stake. I surmise third parties will get somewhere between 2-3% with the Greens doing slightly better than the Libertarians.

[No State Here]

Those sections are typically self-reported from respondents, I'm pretty sure it's pretty standard for polls at this point to ask their ideological bent from "very conservative" to "very liberal", because these are colloquialisms that most Americans understand as opposed to left v. right. What good is a poll if respondents don't understand what they're being asked?

Not everyone is aware of the political axes.

^This. Americans like their politics to be kept short and simple although the majority of Americans on this site are quite the opposite.

This site is a terrible representation of the broad American population

[Greater Miami Shores]

^This. Americans like their politics to be kept short and simple although the majority of Americans on this site are quite the opposite.

This site is a terrible representation of the broad American population

Interesting comment from a non American, I presume.

[Slavakino]

Several polls that were released by Spry Strategies (Rated B/C) show a close race.

You can look at them at 538 for the numbers: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Looking through these polls, I've noticed that the ideological balance is off: the options "Very Conservative" and "Somewhat Conservative" make up 45-60% of the people surveyed; "Moderate" voters make up 25-30%; the rest is "Somewhat Liberal" and "Very Liberal", the smallest of these groups. I can understand in places like Georgia and Texas where there be more conservative type voters but I find it odd that all the polls they did either show a plurality or a majority if said types of voters. Needless to say, I think we can write off these polls by them and consider them an outlier given other polls have shown Biden leading in MI, PA, and WI.

Good lord I hope Biden doesn't win. Trump needs to actually do something, but then again in the USA to win an election you just need to KO in debates. The state of modern politics lmao. Literally voting for Israeli Neo-Cons or 'Muh Russia' Neo-Libs. No sort of "Labour" party what so ever

[Valrifell]

^This. Americans like their politics to be kept short and simple although the majority of Americans on this site are quite the opposite.

This site is a terrible representation of the broad American population

The internet in general is a bad demographic slice for any given country. Regulars for nearly all sites skew Millennial and Gen Z, several others are predominately white and male as well.

[Valrifell]

Several polls that were released by Spry Strategies (Rated B/C) show a close race.

You can look at them at 538 for the numbers: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Looking through these polls, I've noticed that the ideological balance is off: the options "Very Conservative" and "Somewhat Conservative" make up 45-60% of the people surveyed; "Moderate" voters make up 25-30%; the rest is "Somewhat Liberal" and "Very Liberal", the smallest of these groups. I can understand in places like Georgia and Texas where there be more conservative type voters but I find it odd that all the polls they did either show a plurality or a majority if said types of voters. Needless to say, I think we can write off these polls by them and consider them an outlier given other polls have shown Biden leading in MI, PA, and WI.

Good lord I hope Biden doesn't win. Trump needs to actually do something, but then again in the USA to win an election you just need to KO in debates.

That's not strictly true, as most respondents agreed that Clinton performed better than the Donald in the US televised debates (IIRC). Donald Trump isn't exactly a... gifted debater, if you recall and while Joe Biden is certainly less than eloquent most of the time, he's more than capable of holding his own on the stage with Trump. I'd wager most politicians are, actually. Especially now that he's a known quantity now.

Nevertheless the importance of the debates in the online age, I feel, is waning. Most people will settle for clips that can be tailored to suit a narrative, so it's about those viral quotes instead of actual engagement. I don't think either candidate will receive a significant move in the polls regardless of outcome.

That's unless nothing disastrous happening like Trump and/or Biden collapsing on stage, foaming at the mouth, and/or rambling incoherently about curtains.

[Slavakino]

Good lord I hope Biden doesn't win. Trump needs to actually do something, but then again in the USA to win an election you just need to KO in debates.

That's not strictly true, as most respondents agreed that Clinton performed better than the Donald in the US televised debates (IIRC). Donald Trump isn't exactly a... gifted debater, if you recall and while Joe Biden is certainly less than eloquent most of the time, he's more than capable of holding his own on the stage with Trump. I'd wager most politicians are, actually. Especially now that he's a known quantity now.

Nevertheless the importance of the debates in the online age, I feel, is waning. Most people will settle for clips that can be tailored to suit a narrative, so it's about those viral quotes instead of actual engagement. I don't think either candidate will receive a significant move in the polls regardless of outcome.

That's unless nothing disastrous happening like Trump and/or Biden collapsing on stage, foaming at the mouth, and/or rambling incoherently about curtains.

2016 Trump was the best, his policies seemed great for the USA. Currently as president he isn't "incompetent" in a way but good lord is he idle. Trump needs to pump out his policies and promises. I heavily dislike Bidens policies, especially "hate speech" and firearm laws. I guarantee this election would be a win by 51-60%, I don't see a landslide happening any time soon

[The Black Forrest]

That's not strictly true, as most respondents agreed that Clinton performed better than the Donald in the US televised debates (IIRC). Donald Trump isn't exactly a... gifted debater, if you recall and while Joe Biden is certainly less than eloquent most of the time, he's more than capable of holding his own on the stage with Trump. I'd wager most politicians are, actually. Especially now that he's a known quantity now.

Nevertheless the importance of the debates in the online age, I feel, is waning. Most people will settle for clips that can be tailored to suit a narrative, so it's about those viral quotes instead of actual engagement. I don't think either candidate will receive a significant move in the polls regardless of outcome.

That's unless nothing disastrous happening like Trump and/or Biden collapsing on stage, foaming at the mouth, and/or rambling incoherently about curtains.

2016 Trump was the best, his policies seemed great for the USA. Currently as president he isn't "incompetent" in a way but good lord is he idle. Trump needs to pump out his policies and promises. I heavily dislike Bidens policies, especially "hate speech" and firearm laws. I guarantee this election would be a win by 51-60%, I don't see a landslide happening any time soon

Not incompetent? Are you kidding? What exactly has he done that could be labeled competent let alone good?

It's frequently said he does little and doesn't want to learn anything and already knows everything.

Russia, China, Turkey and North Korea bless the day he was elected. He was a god send to the leaders of those countries.

[Slavakino]

2016 Trump was the best, his policies seemed great for the USA. Currently as president he isn't "incompetent" in a way but good lord is he idle. Trump needs to pump out his policies and promises. I heavily dislike Bidens policies, especially "hate speech" and firearm laws. I guarantee this election would be a win by 51-60%, I don't see a landslide happening any time soon

Not incompetent? Are you kidding? What exactly has he done that could be labeled competent let alone good?

It's frequently said he does little and doesn't want to learn anything and already knows everything.

Russia, China, Turkey and North Korea bless the day he was elected. He was a god send to the leaders of those countries.

As I've said. Idle, that's the best description. And yes increasing relations with Russia and NK is the best

[The Black Forrest]

Not incompetent? Are you kidding? What exactly has he done that could be labeled competent let alone good?

It's frequently said he does little and doesn't want to learn anything and already knows everything.

Russia, China, Turkey and North Korea bless the day he was elected. He was a god send to the leaders of those countries.

As I've said. Idle, that's the best description. And yes increasing relations with Russia and NK is the best

Idleness can also come from being incompetent. He does't know what to do and can't lead anything.

Relations hmmm ok. Improving their situation in the world for their political gain? Not really.

[Slavakino]

As I've said. Idle, that's the best description. And yes increasing relations with Russia and NK is the best

Idleness can also come from being incompetent. He does't know what to do and can't lead anything.

Relations hmmm ok. Improving their situation in the world for their political gain? Not really.

I would consider someone incomptent when they try to do something but ultimately fail. Trump isn't incompetent in that sense, as I've said the dude is just idle. He has the power to bing out his promises but by the looks of it he doesn't seem to be doing that. When it comes to Russia and NK its good. Turkey and China? Not so much

[Neutraligon]

Idleness can also come from being incompetent. He does't know what to do and can't lead anything.

Relations hmmm ok. Improving their situation in the world for their political gain? Not really.

I would consider someone incomptent when they try to do something but ultimately fail. Trump isn't incompetent in that sense, as I've said the dude is just idle. He has the power to bing out his promises but by the looks of it he doesn't seem to be doing that. When it comes to Russia and NK its good. Turkey and China? Not so much

I am sorry, but Trump failed in his relations with North Korea. He tried, an failed miserably. He has bungled just about everything he has actually tried to do from the Corona Virus to getting that wall built. In addition he has significantly harmed our international relations, particularly with our actual allies, which is the one place he does have almost absolute control. His response to the pandemic was shit, and his response to the protests is worse then shit.

[Slavakino]

I would consider someone incomptent when they try to do something but ultimately fail. Trump isn't incompetent in that sense, as I've said the dude is just idle. He has the power to bing out his promises but by the looks of it he doesn't seem to be doing that. When it comes to Russia and NK its good. Turkey and China? Not so much

I am sorry, but Trump failed in his relations with North Korea. He tried, an failed miserably. He has bungled just about everything he has actually tried to do from the Corona Virus to getting that wall built. In addition he has significantly harmed our international relations, particularly with our actual allies, which is the one place he does have almost absolute control. His response to the pandemic was shit, and his response to the protests is worse then shit.

The relations with NK have been great, there seem to be good relations between the two which I would like to see progress. These "international" allies seem to be politically opposed to trump which I can see being a problem. But with some other allies like the UK or Australia is great here. But I want Trump to focus on his ideals and policies that he proposed and bring them out now.

[Neutraligon]

I am sorry, but Trump failed in his relations with North Korea. He tried, an failed miserably. He has bungled just about everything he has actually tried to do from the Corona Virus to getting that wall built. In addition he has significantly harmed our international relations, particularly with our actual allies, which is the one place he does have almost absolute control. His response to the pandemic was shit, and his response to the protests is worse then shit.

The relations with NK have been great, there seem to be good relations between the two which I would like to see progress. These "international" allies seem to be politically opposed to trump which I can see being a problem. But with some other allies like the UK or Australia is great here. But I want Trump to focus on his ideals and policies that he proposed and bring them out now.

Factually not true about North Korea https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... otard-agai
https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-kore ... 1591958361
Being politically opposed does not mean you burn those bridges. Our relationship with the UK is not good. And you ignored the rest of trumps failures.

[Ngelmish]

Good lord I hope Biden doesn't win. Trump needs to actually do something, but then again in the USA to win an election you just need to KO in debates.

That's not strictly true, as most respondents agreed that Clinton performed better than the Donald in the US televised debates (IIRC). Donald Trump isn't exactly a... gifted debater, if you recall and while Joe Biden is certainly less than eloquent most of the time, he's more than capable of holding his own on the stage with Trump. I'd wager most politicians are, actually. Especially now that he's a known quantity now.

Nevertheless the importance of the debates in the online age, I feel, is waning. Most people will settle for clips that can be tailored to suit a narrative, so it's about those viral quotes instead of actual engagement. I don't think either candidate will receive a significant move in the polls regardless of outcome.

That's unless nothing disastrous happening like Trump and/or Biden collapsing on stage, foaming at the mouth, and/or rambling incoherently about curtains.

The significance of debates has very rarely been about the actual content from a policy perspective ('76 and especially '60 are outliers in that regard), but the chance for both contenders to project their personalities simultaneously. There's an old truism about Americans gravitating to the more charismatic candidate, but that's not exactly true. What happens is that there's a tendency to vote for whoever is most entertaining to watch on screen. A good example of this is Bush the Elder. Standing next to Mike Dukakis, his self-effacing awkwardness and self deprecatory humor came across as a little funny and rather charming. Next to Bill Clinton, he just seemed passed it and out of touch.

Trump was fundamentally funny to a broad portion of the electorate in ways that may not have had anything to do with policy in 2016 -- but, combine his record with the fact that most people also find Joe Biden to be funny and Trump doesn't have the right foil for this election. That's what the significance of the debates will be. Always assuming, as you say, that there's no mouth foaming on camera.