2020 US General Election Thread VII: Summer of Discontent

[Zurkerx]

If anything, Johnson hurt Trump, costing him States like New Hampshire, and maybe Minnesota, Nevada, and Maine.

He definitely hurt Trump. If the libertarian party didn’t run Trump would have won Michigan with over 51% of the vote, Wisconsin with 50.8%, Pennsylvania with 50.36%, and would have won New Hampshire by 51.38%, Minnesota by 48.76, Nevada by 48.7%, and Maine by 49.96%. That would have given Trump an extra 23 EC votes for a total of 329 to 209

While the Green Party would have done nothing for Clinton. The idea that the Libertarian and Green parties helped Trump win is utter garbage.

That's assuming all of Johnson's voters would vote for Trump, which it would not have happened. Still, the margins of victory for Trump would have been bigger. This time around, there's no stronger third party person as the Libertarians will be lucky to get 1%; the Greens will break just over 1%.

[Thermodolia]

He definitely hurt Trump. If the libertarian party didn’t run Trump would have won Michigan with over 51% of the vote, Wisconsin with 50.8%, Pennsylvania with 50.36%, and would have won New Hampshire by 51.38%, Minnesota by 48.76, Nevada by 48.7%, and Maine by 49.96%. That would have given Trump an extra 23 EC votes for a total of 329 to 209

While the Green Party would have done nothing for Clinton. The idea that the Libertarian and Green parties helped Trump win is utter garbage.

That's assuming all of Johnson's voters would vote for Trump, which it would not have happened. Still, the margins of victory for Trump would have been bigger. This time around, there's no stronger third party person as the Libertarians will be lucky to get 1%; the Greens will break just over 1%.

True but the vast majority would have voted for Trump, those that didn’t would have stayed home or voted someone else. Very few would have voted for Clinton, less than a 1%

I also ran the numbers Trump would have won the popular vote if Johnson had not run. So if anything Johnson helped Clinton not Trump.

[Jerzylvania]

I will never make pronouncements like that after the horror of 2016.

We all know why Trump got elected. Hillary was shit, didn’t properly campaign, and a lot of people couldn’t connect with her/felt forgotten by society.

Trump came in and said he’ll fix it. Kanye isn’t going to be a spoiler because nobody on the democrats are going to vote for a guy who says Trump is the greatest

Bingo.

[Jerzylvania]

Stein and Johnson helped Trump win what's to say West couldn't do the same?

Stein and Johnson did not help Trump win, how is West going to?

Nope. But Comey did.

He isn't and won't matter any more than a grain of sand inside a hurricane.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

If anything, Johnson hurt Trump, costing him States like New Hampshire, and maybe Minnesota, Nevada, and Maine.

He definitely hurt Trump. If the libertarian party didn’t run Trump would have won Michigan with over 51% of the vote, Wisconsin with 50.8%, Pennsylvania with 50.36%, and would have won New Hampshire by 51.38%, Minnesota by 48.76, Nevada by 48.7%, and Maine by 49.96%. That would have given Trump an extra 23 EC votes for a total of 329 to 209

Lots of numbers but not much sense. You're assuming that without a Libertarian on the ballot, all those Johnson voters would have (a) voted at all, and (b) voted for Trump.

While the Green Party would have done nothing for Clinton.

Well at least you didn't waste everyone's time doing the same garbage arithmetic with the Green vote.

The idea that the Libertarian and Green parties helped Trump win is utter garbage.

Well I think so too.

But if I set out to prove it I wouldn't start with the raw figures and try to interpret them. I'd use google and find an expert who has already done it. It's not as simple as you think.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

That's assuming all of Johnson's voters would vote for Trump, which it would not have happened. Still, the margins of victory for Trump would have been bigger. This time around, there's no stronger third party person as the Libertarians will be lucky to get 1%; the Greens will break just over 1%.

True but the vast majority would have voted for Trump, those that didn’t would have stayed home or voted someone else. Very few would have voted for Clinton, less than a 1%

I also ran the numbers Trump would have won the popular vote if Johnson had not run. So if anything Johnson helped Clinton not Trump.

You ran the numbers. Oh right.

Clinton won the popular vote by almost 3 million votes. Gary Johnson got 1.3 million votes.

What bullshit.

[Ngelmish]

And if their votes had gone to Mickey Mouse, what would've happened? How about if they all wrote in Justin Trudeau?

Sure, they might have voted for Clinton if she'd campaigned better and convinced them they should vote for her. Maybe many of them were going to vote for Stein and Johnson anyway, maybe some were going to vote for Trump but swapped to Stein and Johnson instead.

There seems to be a lot of pointing fingers for 2016's loss and not acceptance that Hillary just seriously fumbled the whole thing.

Well I respect Clinton. She wasn't perfect, but she fought well for the Democrats, and nearly achieved the almost impossible third term in the White House. To hold her in any less regard than Al Gore who failed attempting the same thing, is in fact finger-pointing. The American people living in swing states wanted a change of party in the White House, and the only alternative to the Democrat was the ludicrous orange Republican you have now.

Blaming Clinton herself is deflection. The real blame lies with the American people, who have now suffered for their foolishness and will hopefully not make the same mistake again!

Yeah, the thing about most criticisms of Hillary when people are replaying 2016, is that they actually ignore what her campaign strategy was in the final stretch. She bet on '64 as the model for '16, guessing that if she just focused on, with Trump helping out by being himself, how ludicrously unlike any president in living memory he was, with reprehensible personality traits to boot, she could get that '64 style landslide -- or at the very least, that a lot of nominally Republican voters wouldn't actually be able to force themselves to vote for the guy.

She was wrong. It was unquestionably a mistake. But it's not hard to understand why that was her best guess at the time, and hindsight, as they say, is 2020.

[Thermodolia]

True but the vast majority would have voted for Trump, those that didn’t would have stayed home or voted someone else. Very few would have voted for Clinton, less than a 1%

I also ran the numbers Trump would have won the popular vote if Johnson had not run. So if anything Johnson helped Clinton not Trump.

You ran the numbers. Oh right.

Clinton won the popular vote by almost 3 million votes. Gary Johnson got 1.3 million votes.

What bullshit.

Johnson got 4 million votes. Not 1.3 million. Maybe you should research before you act like you know everything

[Outer Sparta]

Well I respect Clinton. She wasn't perfect, but she fought well for the Democrats, and nearly achieved the almost impossible third term in the White House. To hold her in any less regard than Al Gore who failed attempting the same thing, is in fact finger-pointing. The American people living in swing states wanted a change of party in the White House, and the only alternative to the Democrat was the ludicrous orange Republican you have now.

Blaming Clinton herself is deflection. The real blame lies with the American people, who have now suffered for their foolishness and will hopefully not make the same mistake again!

Yeah, the thing about most criticisms of Hillary when people are replaying 2016, is that they actually ignore what her campaign strategy was in the final stretch. She bet on '64 as the model for '16, guessing that if she just focused on, with Trump helping out by being himself, how ludicrously unlike any president in living memory he was, with reprehensible personality traits to boot, she could get that '64 style landslide -- or at the very least, that a lot of nominally Republican voters wouldn't actually be able to force themselves to vote for the guy.

She was wrong. It was unquestionably a mistake. But it's not hard to understand why that was her best guess at the time, and hindsight, as they say, is 2020.

Yeah, considering that people basically written off Trump in 2016 and thought it was an easy win. It goes in sports that even if your opponent is the defending champions or the bottom of the barrel, you still prepare and work hard to beat them.

[Thermodolia]

He definitely hurt Trump. If the libertarian party didn’t run Trump would have won Michigan with over 51% of the vote, Wisconsin with 50.8%, Pennsylvania with 50.36%, and would have won New Hampshire by 51.38%, Minnesota by 48.76, Nevada by 48.7%, and Maine by 49.96%. That would have given Trump an extra 23 EC votes for a total of 329 to 209

Lots of numbers but not much sense. You're assuming that without a Libertarian on the ballot, all those Johnson voters would have (a) voted at all, and (b) voted for Trump.

Because 9 times out of 10 libertarian voters vote republican. I’ve seen it happen in my home state several times due to the two round system we use. In the first round the libertarians siphon votes away from the republicans however if neither candidate hits 50%+1 the libertarians always back the republican or stay home.

While the Green Party would have done nothing for Clinton.

Well at least you didn't waste everyone's time doing the same garbage arithmetic with the Green vote.

It’s not garbage arithmetic when you understand that libertarians are basically republicans while Green voters are farther left than the average democrat.

The idea that the Libertarian and Green parties helped Trump win is utter garbage.

Well I think so too.

But if I set out to prove it I wouldn't start with the raw figures and try to interpret them. I'd use google and find an expert who has already done it. It's not as simple as you think.

Appeal to authority

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

As a joke, I tweeted out saying people who don’t vote for Kanye don’t care about black lives. I’m curious to see what the 2 or 3 replies will be

[Vassenor]

As a joke, I tweeted out saying people who don’t vote for Kanye don’t care about black lives. I’m curious to see what the 2 or 3 replies will be

And what contribution has he actually made on the subject?

[Gormwood]

As a joke, I tweeted out saying people who don’t vote for Kanye don’t care about black lives. I’m curious to see what the 2 or 3 replies will be

And what contribution has he actually made on the subject?

He bitched about Bush after Katrina, then kissed up to a guy who cares even less about black people.

[Outer Sparta]

And what contribution has he actually made on the subject?

He bitched about Bush after Katrina, then kissed up to a guy who cares even less about black people.

He's one of those so-called Hollywood elites the GOP despises but they have somebody on their side so they'll take any has-been celebs.

[Major-Tom]

As a joke, I tweeted out saying people who don’t vote for Kanye don’t care about black lives. I’m curious to see what the 2 or 3 replies will be

Witty.

[Major-Tom]

Kanye West is a self-absorbed maniac and so is Elon Musk. Kanye will likely not be on the ballot, but if he were, it'd be an unmitigated disaster.

Now if you excuse me, I'd like to go back to listening to The College Dropout.

[South Odreria 2]

Kanye getting a lot of votes and the result being close would be incredibly awesome because whichever side lost would rage so hard, it’d be amazing

[La Xinga]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Do this as many times a you want, I couldn't get a Trump win, can you?

Edit: I got ONE!

[The Huskar Social Union]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Do this as many times a you want, I couldn't get a Trump win, can you?

Edit: I got ONE!

One of the simulation runs i had gave the Dems a win with 413 votes against 125 with them taking Florida, Georgia and Texas.

If that result ever happened in an election i would love to imagine the complete collapse inside the Republican party.

[La Xinga]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Do this as many times a you want, I couldn't get a Trump win, can you?

Edit: I got ONE!

One of the simulation runs i had gave the Dems a win with 413 votes against 125 with them taking Florida, Georgia and Texas.

If that result ever happened in an election i would love to image the complete collapse inside the Republican party.

I had similar, except the Repubs won Wisconsin, and 2nd Maine.

[Dresderstan]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Do this as many times a you want, I couldn't get a Trump win, can you?

Edit: I got ONE!

I'm going to try ten times and see what i get

1st: 413-125 Biden
2nd: 357-181 Biden
3rd: 374-164 Biden
4th: 375-163 Biden
5th: 310-228 Biden
6th: 273-265 Biden
7th: 311-227 Biden
8th: 241-297 Trump
9th: 396-142 Biden
10th: 304-234 Biden

So I can say 9 out of 10 times Biden wins.

[Kannap]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Do this as many times a you want, I couldn't get a Trump win, can you?

Edit: I got ONE!

I'm going to try ten times and see what i get

1st: 413-125 Biden
2nd: 357-181 Biden
3rd: 374-164 Biden
4th: 375-163 Biden
5th: 310-228 Biden
6th: 273-265 Biden
7th: 311-227 Biden
8th: 241-297 Trump
9th: 396-142 Biden
10th: 304-234 Biden

So I can say 9 out of 10 times Biden wins.

1st: 357-181 Biden
2nd: 317-221 Biden
3rd: 375-163 Biden
4th: 256-282 Trump
5th: 269-269 Draw
6th: 412-126 Biden
7th: 315-223 Biden
8th: 284-254 Biden
9th: 326-212 Biden
10th: 238-300 Trump

Hmmm, my first ten came out with 7 for Biden, 2 for Trump, and one a draw.

I then simulated 20 more times and 86.7% of the maps favored Biden winning, 10% Trump and 3.3% (just one map) a draw.

[La Xinga]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Is my simulator NORMAL?!

I got 344 Trump, 188 Biden!

Trump won all his 2016 states and Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and the main Maine.

Like, you wish!

[Greater Miami Shores]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Is my simulator NORMAL?!

I got 344 Trump, 188 Biden!

Trump won all his 2016 states and Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and the main Maine.

Like, you wish!

I love your simulator

[Kannap]

https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulation/

Is my simulator NORMAL?!

I got 344 Trump, 188 Biden!

Trump won all his 2016 states and Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and the main Maine.

Like, you wish!

I love your simulator

I love that it will never happen