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Battle for the Beehive(A New Zealand Election Thread)

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Who do you support?

Labour
39
38%
National
21
21%
Green Party
14
14%
NZ First
9
9%
ACT NZ
5
5%
Maori Party
4
4%
New Conservatives
9
9%
TOP
0
No votes
Other
1
1%
 
Total votes : 102

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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Sun Jul 19, 2020 12:47 am

Radiatia wrote:Well said, Drongonia.

Speaking of Winston - did anyone else see his bizarre rant at Corin Dann today? Normally I find Winston's rants at the media entertaining (especially considering I hold most Kiwi journalists in low regard anyway) but this time around I found myself wondering if Winston's starting to lose the plot. He's normally sharp, charming and entertaining but this time he came across as being a bit deranged.

I don't want to accuse him being senile but the more I observe him the more I find myself wondering if his advanced age might be starting to have a tangible negative impact.


It could be his age catching up on him. He is in his 70's, this must be one of his last elections before he retires.

Drongonia wrote:Muller on the other hand never should have accepted the position at the top of the pack. As I understand it though, him and Nikki Kaye were just gathering the numbers on behalf of someone else, then that person pulled out which forced their hand.


Yes it seemed a bit strange that Muller was announced when he wasn't anywhere near the top echelons of the party and was previously known for being the subject of the "OK Boomer" quip and losing his mind at a museum exhibit. He was way out of his depth.

True, not for the next couple of years or so. Maybe more but we'll see.


Depends on where the virus lingers around the longest.

I'm not saying that immigration is necessarily causing these issues, what I'm saying is that these issues were a ticking timebomb (particularly in Auckland, except for the public transport which is actually quite good) and that piling more people on top of a system that was, as you say, hilariously badly planned, was never going to go well. Engineers and city planners were advising council/central government to expand their infrastructure as far back as the 1970s.


Yes, and councils turned around and told them "OK how do we fund it" and the taxpayers decided they wouldn't foot the bill, so it never happened.

On that bad planning, my grandfather worked for the Railways way back when (and travelled around the commonwealth helping other countries), and at that point he was in talks with a man named FW Jones (I think), or "FwoJo" as they called him. Basically, the railways and transport guys back then had came up with a completely different plan, which would have done things such as the multiple Auckland harbour crossings (one of my the projects my grandfather directly contributed to), they would have improved the rail links in both Auckland and Wellington, as well as bolstering the railways around the North Island, and the urban plan for most of Auckland and in particular the North Shore was to allow for more roading room to allow for future public transport use and general population growth. None of that was done by the "big boys", of course, as it was all too expensive. Hope that wasn't too rambly lol


No that's quite interesting, and speaks volumes of how Treasury determines government policy and growth of the country.

No, cutting back immigration wouldn't address the underlying issues (as with the transport issues), but it wouldn't be a net negative. As for banning foreign buyers, foreign buyers aren't coming to live here, are they?


Houses were still being bought. It doesn't make that much of a difference, you're just opening up the market for domestic investors.

Banning foreign buyers and restricting immigration to curb housing demand would have two completely different outcomes. 70,000 "foreign buyers" don't arrive in New Zealand every year needing somewhere to live, but 70,000 immigrants do.


I don't believe that every single one of those 70,000 people has enough money to spend, but even so, again, reducing immigration just reduces competition for domestic investors. And they'll love you for basically handing them a plethora of slightly cheaper properties for them to snap up.
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New Rogernomics
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Postby New Rogernomics » Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:30 pm

Looks like the Nats possibly at Judith's urging are clearing house for the election: https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/n ... g-election

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Drongonia
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Postby Drongonia » Sun Jul 19, 2020 8:07 pm

New Rogernomics wrote:Looks like the Nats possibly at Judith's urging are clearing house for the election: https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/n ... g-election

I think you'll find he was struggling if you read the article: “Andrew is suffering from significant mental health issues and his privacy, and that of his family, must be respected.”
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Drongonia
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Postby Drongonia » Sun Jul 19, 2020 11:16 pm

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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Sun Jul 19, 2020 11:40 pm

Stuff had already hinted at this so it doesn't surprise me at all. Does take the cake of "weird shit to do with schoolgirls" from Chris Bishop sending odd Snapchats to 13 year olds.
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Drongonia
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Postby Drongonia » Sun Jul 19, 2020 11:56 pm

Costa Fierro wrote:Stuff had already hinted at this so it doesn't surprise me at all. Does take the cake of "weird shit to do with schoolgirls" from Chris Bishop sending odd Snapchats to 13 year olds.

Sending corny political Snapchats is much more tame than just straight up sending them porn, so yeah.
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News via FUX.dg: Labour, Greens back push to open borders amid COVID crisis | FUX PolitiPoll: NAT 53.4%/LAB 40.4%/PFR 4.6%/CON 1.1%/GRN 0.5% | Drongonia-China Pacific naval conflict comes to an end
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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Sat Jul 25, 2020 11:55 pm

Labour soars to the highest ever numbers in Reid Research polling. National looks set for its most crushing defeat in 18 years.

Labour polled 60.9%, National 25.1%, the Greens on 5.7%, ACT on 3.3%, and NZF on 2.0%. Of the minor parties, the New Conservatives are on 0.9%, with both TOP and Maori Party on 0.4% each.

Certainly makes the Auckland Central contest all the more important, although there's going to be interesting electorate contests around the country. Kaipara ki Mahurangi will be interesting to see who gets in there, Banks Peninsula too as it's now gobbled up some interesting parts of eastern Christchurch, and border changes down Otago way mean Dunedin will face the choice between David Clark and Michael Woodhouse.
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Forsher
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Postby Forsher » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:40 am

Costa Fierro wrote:Labour soars to the highest ever numbers in Reid Research polling. National looks set for its most crushing defeat in 18 years.

Labour polled 60.9%, National 25.1%, the Greens on 5.7%, ACT on 3.3%, and NZF on 2.0%. Of the minor parties, the New Conservatives are on 0.9%, with both TOP and Maori Party on 0.4% each.

Certainly makes the Auckland Central contest all the more important, although there's going to be interesting electorate contests around the country. Kaipara ki Mahurangi will be interesting to see who gets in there, Banks Peninsula too as it's now gobbled up some interesting parts of eastern Christchurch, and border changes down Otago way mean Dunedin will face the choice between David Clark and Michael Woodhouse.


That's some scary reading... this Labour government have been a disaster aside from the crisis management. Kiwi Build, Light Rail, the early term ministerial scandals, the late term ministerial scandals, capital gains tax etc. etc. etc.
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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:16 pm

Forsher wrote:
Costa Fierro wrote:Labour soars to the highest ever numbers in Reid Research polling. National looks set for its most crushing defeat in 18 years.

Labour polled 60.9%, National 25.1%, the Greens on 5.7%, ACT on 3.3%, and NZF on 2.0%. Of the minor parties, the New Conservatives are on 0.9%, with both TOP and Maori Party on 0.4% each.

Certainly makes the Auckland Central contest all the more important, although there's going to be interesting electorate contests around the country. Kaipara ki Mahurangi will be interesting to see who gets in there, Banks Peninsula too as it's now gobbled up some interesting parts of eastern Christchurch, and border changes down Otago way mean Dunedin will face the choice between David Clark and Michael Woodhouse.


That's some scary reading... this Labour government have been a disaster aside from the crisis management. Kiwi Build, Light Rail, the early term ministerial scandals, the late term ministerial scandals, capital gains tax etc. etc. etc.


It has, but we more or less expected this when New Zealand First announced that it would go into coalition with Labour. I guess time will tell, but if we end up without New Zealand First in Parliament, it will be a test to see whether or not Labour has indeed been hamstrung by NZF or whether or not they're genuinely incompetent.
"Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist." - George Carlin

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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:39 pm

New poll shows Reid Research not the rogue poll National thought it was.

Labour is on 53%, up three percent. National is on 32%, down six percent. The Greens and ACT (!?) are equal on five percent, down one and up one percent respectively. New Zealand First is on two percent with no change, with the New Conservatives and Maori parties both on one percent, also no changes to them.

As for preferred Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern is on 54 percent, with no change. Judith Collins is on 20%, up 18%. Winston Peters is on one percent, down one percent, and David Seymour is up to one percent, up 0.2%.

The poll also asked voters about which party leader they trusted most: Jacinda Ardern was rated first at 82%, with David Seymour ranking second. Judith Collins was almost split 50/50, and both Green co-leaders ranked positively. Only Winston Peters was regarded unfavourably, with 59% of people asked who do not trust him.
Last edited by Costa Fierro on Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:42 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:22 pm

Costa Fierro wrote:New poll shows Reid Research not the rogue poll National thought it was.

Labour is on 53%, up three percent. National is on 32%, down six percent. The Greens and ACT (!?) are equal on five percent, down one and up one percent respectively. New Zealand First is on two percent with no change, with the New Conservatives and Maori parties both on one percent, also no changes to them.

As for preferred Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern is on 54 percent, with no change. Judith Collins is on 20%, up 18%. Winston Peters is on one percent, down one percent, and David Seymour is up to one percent, up 0.2%.

The poll also asked voters about which party leader they trusted most: Jacinda Ardern was rated first at 82%, with David Seymour ranking second. Judith Collins was almost split 50/50, and both Green co-leaders ranked positively. Only Winston Peters was regarded unfavourably, with 59% of people asked who do not trust him.


Good Lord....I thought Labour's numbers would go back down rather than keep going up myself. Now, we'll get to see if NZ First really was the reason for Ardern's otherwise meh numbers when crises didn't hit.
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Costa Fierro
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Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Costa Fierro » Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:49 am

"Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist." - George Carlin

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Drongonia
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Postby Drongonia » Sat Aug 08, 2020 10:37 pm


I think things will stabilise. Act's surge will likely dissipate and we'll see National on 40% or so, with Labour up around perhaps 46 - 47%, with the minor parties scrapping over the rest.
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Sat Aug 08, 2020 11:18 pm

Drongonia wrote:

I think things will stabilise. Act's surge will likely dissipate and we'll see National on 40% or so, with Labour up around perhaps 46 - 47%, with the minor parties scrapping over the rest.


I don't know if National will get that high, I'm thinking 34-38% is more realistic right now.
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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Sun Aug 09, 2020 1:58 am

Drongonia wrote:

I think things will stabilise. Act's surge will likely dissipate and we'll see National on 40% or so, with Labour up around perhaps 46 - 47%, with the minor parties scrapping over the rest.


Is your name Gerry Brownlee by any chance?

Shrillland wrote:
Drongonia wrote:I think things will stabilise. Act's surge will likely dissipate and we'll see National on 40% or so, with Labour up around perhaps 46 - 47%, with the minor parties scrapping over the rest.


I don't know if National will get that high, I'm thinking 34-38% is more realistic right now.


Not even that. Polls are consistent with National under 30%, around the mid-20's.

Some good news is that polling in the Northland electorate, which is crucial for NZF's survival, sees Shane Jones in third place behind National's Matt King and Labour's Willow-Jean Prime.
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Drongonia
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Postby Drongonia » Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:47 am

Costa Fierro wrote:Is your name Gerry Brownlee by any chance?

I wish I was getting $200k a year for posting on NS during parliament.
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News via FUX.dg: Labour, Greens back push to open borders amid COVID crisis | FUX PolitiPoll: NAT 53.4%/LAB 40.4%/PFR 4.6%/CON 1.1%/GRN 0.5% | Drongonia-China Pacific naval conflict comes to an end
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Postby Forsher » Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:56 am

Drongonia wrote:
Costa Fierro wrote:Is your name Gerry Brownlee by any chance?

I wish I was getting $200k a year for posting on NS during parliament.


Breaking News: Gerry Brownlee in an affair with Jennifer Government on a site called NationDates
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:18 am

Internal Labour polling shows Labour 24 points ahead of National

Even if we cut some off the top, that would still be a respectable 46-48%.
Last edited by Shrillland on Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Drongonia
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Postby Drongonia » Wed Aug 12, 2020 3:20 pm

Shrillland wrote:Internal Labour polling shows Labour 24 points ahead of National

Even if we cut some off the top, that would still be a respectable 46-48%.

Labour polling shows Labour ahead. No news here.

What is news though is the potential effect another COVID lockdown would have on the election.
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News via FUX.dg: Labour, Greens back push to open borders amid COVID crisis | FUX PolitiPoll: NAT 53.4%/LAB 40.4%/PFR 4.6%/CON 1.1%/GRN 0.5% | Drongonia-China Pacific naval conflict comes to an end
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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:10 pm

Drongonia wrote:
Shrillland wrote:Internal Labour polling shows Labour 24 points ahead of National

Even if we cut some off the top, that would still be a respectable 46-48%.

Labour polling shows Labour ahead. No news here.

What is news though is the potential effect another COVID lockdown would have on the election.


If it gives a push back to November, there's still room for a response to be done to the point where we can either eliminate community transmission or reduce it down to very low levels.

Singapore managed to hold a general election during the pandemic, I don't see why we wouldn't be able to either.
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Postby Outer Sparta » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:14 pm

Shrillland wrote:Internal Labour polling shows Labour 24 points ahead of National

Even if we cut some off the top, that would still be a respectable 46-48%.

Internal polling does internal polling things. Nothing new here.
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Drongonia
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Postby Drongonia » Sun Aug 16, 2020 3:58 pm

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News via FUX.dg: Labour, Greens back push to open borders amid COVID crisis | FUX PolitiPoll: NAT 53.4%/LAB 40.4%/PFR 4.6%/CON 1.1%/GRN 0.5% | Drongonia-China Pacific naval conflict comes to an end
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Postby Liriena » Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:15 pm


There seems to be overwhelming popular support for it.
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Drongonia
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Postby Drongonia » Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:30 pm

Liriena wrote:

There seems to be overwhelming popular support for it.

I'm not sure 60-40 is overwhelming, but the Electoral Commission and the other parties were consulted (and agreed it'd be fine), so that's the main thing in my eyes.
Republic of Drongonia | The MT powerhouse of the Pacific. | NationStates Flag Bracket #1 - 2nd, 4th, AND 7th place!

News via FUX.dg: Labour, Greens back push to open borders amid COVID crisis | FUX PolitiPoll: NAT 53.4%/LAB 40.4%/PFR 4.6%/CON 1.1%/GRN 0.5% | Drongonia-China Pacific naval conflict comes to an end
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Sun Aug 16, 2020 6:05 pm

Drongonia wrote:
Liriena wrote:There seems to be overwhelming popular support for it.

I'm not sure 60-40 is overwhelming, but the Electoral Commission and the other parties were consulted (and agreed it'd be fine), so that's the main thing in my eyes.


Well, you guys have been hypercautious(and correctly so) about the virus. A month won't change too much, I still expect Labour to ace it.
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