Battle for the Beehive(A New Zealand Election Thread)

[Drongonia]

I would love to see Judith step up. As an aside, there's a lot of media coverage on Simon Bridges lately. Now that he's not the leader of the National Party he's seemingly transformed into a chatty, polite and reasonably likeable guy.

[Costa Fierro]

That or John Key's wife, as they are really scrapping the barrel at this point.

I have my fingers crossed for the reanimated corpse of Rob Muldoon.

There isn't enough whiskey in the world for that to happen.

[Radiatia]

I would love to see Judith step up. As an aside, there's a lot of media coverage on Simon Bridges lately. Now that he's not the leader of the National Party he's seemingly transformed into a chatty, polite and reasonably likeable guy.

I agree that Judith Collins is National's best bet. There was never any way that they were going to win this election anyway, but they need someone to cauterise their wounds while preparing for 2023.

I have a certain amount of time for Judith, although National's disturbingly close ties to China (and willingness to spout the CCP line) still put me off ever voting for them.

[Drongonia]

I have a certain amount of time for Judith, although National's disturbingly close ties to China (and willingness to spout the CCP line) still put me off ever voting for them.

I don't like National for that and other reasons, but yeah Judith is better than the rest.

[Costa Fierro]

Roy Morgan is showing a massive lead for Labour.

This latest poll is was done the week before last so it isn't reflective of National's COVID-19 leak scandal.

Labour is currently sitting proud on 54.5%, down two percent. National is on 27%, up 0.5%. The Greens are on nine percent, up two percent. New Zealand First is currently sitting on 1.5%, down one percent. ACT is on five percent, up 1.5%. If polling trends continue it'd be the best election result in 18 years for the ACT party.

Outside of Parliament, TOP is sitting on 1.5%, up 0.5%, and the Maori Party is at one percent, down 0.5%.

[Drongonia]

Roy Morgan is showing a massive lead for Labour.

Regardless of the result I don't generally trust Roy Morgan polls. I've never considered them especially accurate.

In other news, Newshub says Judith Collins has been chosen as the new leader. So, that's an improvement.

[Costa Fierro]

Roy Morgan is showing a massive lead for Labour.

Regardless of the result I don't generally trust Roy Morgan polls. I've never considered them especially accurate.

In other news, Newshub says Judith Collins has been chosen as the new leader. So, that's an improvement.

Should be interesting given Collins isn't a pushover.

[West Ruislip]

I'm not voting on this thread.

[West Ruislip]

don't make these threads political.

[Drongonia]

don't make these threads political.

It's literally a political thread on a political forum.

[Radiatia]

Wow, Judith Collins is leader. I'm not actually sure what to make of that other than that things are about to become very interesting.

She'll definitely make life hard for Ardern and make for a tough opponent, but in saying that I still think it's a poisoned chalice and National have no chance of winning this election.

[Radiatia]

don't make these threads political.

Ugh okay.... um, how about those All Blacks then?

[Esternial]

For a moment there I was buzzing to talk about bees :(

[Costa Fierro]

Wow, Judith Collins is leader. I'm not actually sure what to make of that other than that things are about to become very interesting.

She'll definitely make life hard for Ardern and make for a tough opponent, but in saying that I still think it's a poisoned chalice and National have no chance of winning this election.

There's a slim chance but it will definitely reduce the vote share for Labour and definitely put them into the arms of the Greens.

[The Huskar Social Union]

don't make these threads political.

Not the dreaded politics! Not on a politics forum! Oh no its ruined my childhood is dead.

[Drongonia]

Wow, Judith Collins is leader. I'm not actually sure what to make of that other than that things are about to become very interesting.

She'll definitely make life hard for Ardern and make for a tough opponent, but in saying that I still think it's a poisoned chalice and National have no chance of winning this election.

There's a slim chance but it will definitely reduce the vote share for Labour and definitely put them into the arms of the Greens.

The Nats could win. I mean, the sun could also just not come up tomorrow morning too. Nonetheless I think Judith+Gerry have boosted the party vote from ~35% to 40 - 42%. Labour will, as you said, likely now be reliant on the Greens for a win. Maybe NZF but I kinda doubt it unless they win Northland.

[Forsher]

Judith! Judith! Judith!

Obvious choice was obvious... at the third time of asking. Mind you, I think there were real questions to ask about whether or not Collins was being left behind by the political landscape.

In any case, I expect that we'll see the opposite of what happened after Ardern took over, i.e, a reassertion of "traditional" National values and tactics rather than what was the incredibly cosmetic switch from Little to Ardern. I would similarly not expect a major boost in National's numbers because, you know, it's Judith Collins.

[New Rogernomics]

Roy Morgan is showing a massive lead for Labour.

Regardless of the result I don't generally trust Roy Morgan polls. I've never considered them especially accurate.

In other news, Newshub says Judith Collins has been chosen as the new leader. So, that's an improvement.

Well, I always disagree with polls in general because they are never going to fully account for NZ First. They always claim Winston will never be back in, so it is always amusing to see him get back in on 5%+ or more. Then let's not forget how he technically took epic revenge on National by propping up Labour. They were only right once, and then he was back in the next election.

The Greens are going to be back, as will Act. Only question is who gets more of the vote among the small parties. Labour I predict will win regardless as NZ rarely sees one term governments unless they pull a Muldoon and get drunk and call a snap election.

[Drongonia]

I know this is a Newshub online poll which isn't exactly of the highest quality, but I think its worth posting because this is the closest preferred Prime Minister poll of any type since Bill English left parliament in 2018. At the time of me writing, it has Judith Collins on 49% and Jacinda Ardern on 51%. It was 48-52 earlier, so it's not static but it is still very interesting. You can take a look and vote yourself here.

[Radiatia]

Regardless of the result I don't generally trust Roy Morgan polls. I've never considered them especially accurate.

In other news, Newshub says Judith Collins has been chosen as the new leader. So, that's an improvement.

Well, I always disagree with polls in general because they are never going to fully account for NZ First. They always claim Winston will never be back in, so it is always amusing to see him get back in on 5%+ or more. Then let's not forget how he technically took epic revenge on National by propping up Labour. They were only right once, and then he was back in the next election.

The Greens are going to be back, as will Act. Only question is who gets more of the vote among the small parties. Labour I predict will win regardless as NZ rarely sees one term governments unless they pull a Muldoon and get drunk and call a snap election.

I actually think NZ First are dead in the water this time around and their usual cries of "the polls are wrong" will be meaningless (and I say this as someone who was once a very ardent supporter of theirs). Shane Jones has an outside chance of winning Northland, they might poll high enough for Winston to gain a list seat if so, but there's no way they're going to get more than 5% and the election of Collins has killed their one last ray of hope.

In the last election, NZ First were propped up basically by former Colin Craig voters, in the one before it was disaffected Labour voters - but this time Labour voters are all voting Labour and Conservative voters are going to be voting either New Conservative or, quite likely, for National under Judith Collins (who is just enough of a populist to be able to appeal to that type of voter.)

As for how Collins herself will do, it's hard to say. She's definitely the right person to shore up support from National's base and bring back soft National voters from NZ First, New Conservatives and possibly ACT. She also has a slim chance of winning over some swing/Labour voters, but I don't think that'll actually happen this time around. While she's considered controversial, the people who dislike her are the sort of people who would never vote National anyway while at the same time she probably will appeal to the 'Waitakere Man' voter much better than Bridges or Muller ever did.

But as I've said twice now, National's chances of winning are extremely slim. They should concentrate on 2023 when they will have a much better chance, and for now concentrate on trying not to lose too many seats.

The Greens are safe though won't do spectacularly and ACT will probably gain at least one other MP.

I know this is a Newshub online poll which isn't exactly of the highest quality, but I think its worth posting because this is the closest preferred Prime Minister poll of any type since Bill English left parliament in 2018. At the time of me writing, it has Judith Collins on 49% and Jacinda Ardern on 51%. It was 48-52 earlier, so it's not static but it is still very interesting. You can take a look and vote yourself here.

Those sort of polls are meaningless. They're always slightly skewed to the right as those are the kinds of people who are likely to actually go on Newshub's website.

[KingFerdinand1]

I Would Vote For NZ First Because Right Wing Is The Way Forward And To Prosperity.

[Radiatia]

I Would Vote For NZ First Because Right Wing Is The Way Forward And To Prosperity.

NZ First are not right-wing. They have some nominally conservative social views but economically they're actually quite hard to the left.

[Liriena]

I Would Vote For NZ First Because Right Wing Is The Way Forward And To Prosperity.

lmao

[Cetacea]

I Would Vote For NZ First Because Right Wing Is The Way Forward And To Prosperity.

You need to realise that by US standards there are no right wing parties in New Zealand, US style conservatism is considered extremist by NZ standards (or any other reasonable nation)

NZ First is a traditionalist, centrist party. Even Act would be at best center-right

[Radiatia]

I Would Vote For NZ First Because Right Wing Is The Way Forward And To Prosperity.

You need to realise that by US standards there are no right wing parties in New Zealand, US style conservatism is considered extremist by NZ standards (or any other reasonable nation)

NZ First is a traditionalist, centrist party. Even Act would be at best center-right

Actually yeah this.

National = Hillary Clinton Democrats

Labour = Bernie Sanders Democrats

The closest to the Republicans would be ACT or NC but ACT are socially liberal and NC are economically quite centrist.