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Battle for the Beehive(A New Zealand Election Thread)

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Who do you support?

Labour
46
34%
National
22
16%
Green Party
30
22%
NZ First
11
8%
ACT NZ
6
4%
Maori Party
8
6%
New Conservatives
10
7%
TOP
0
No votes
Other
2
1%
 
Total votes : 135

User avatar
Forsher
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Posts: 22041
Founded: Jan 30, 2012
New York Times Democracy

Postby Forsher » Sun Jun 28, 2020 7:37 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Well, Costa Fierro just put up a better explanation anyway, so...


I gotta start reading through every reply before I make replies of my own smh.


I think it's a fair concern. I don't think approaching politics in NZ from the perspective of "this party stands for that" is realistically workable.

Regardless of what ACT's meant to be about, it's really positioned as "the other right wing party" which probably comes from the whole Epsom thing and then was reinforced by the John Banks and Don Brash years. A lot of core National policies in the Key years that came from the right were also things that I think most people would argue were either obviously ACT ideas or ended up being massively associated with ACT (e.g. charter schools or the supercity).

There's also a clear parallel with the Greens. As a party they're not and shouldn't be treated as "Labour for when you don't want to vote Labour" but that's very much been their experience in the last twelve years (four/five election cycles) if not longer. And the mutual comparisons between ACT and the Greens merely serve to reinforce this impression.

NZ First, in contrast, has tried to stake itself as a centrist party, an old folk's party and a "pre-Rogernomics" party. It's clearly very socially right wing and economically is basically whatever Winston Peters needs it to be in any given moment... whilst, in principle, always having that "return to the 1970s"/walkback the neoliberal revolution vibe to it. This leads to the analysis that NZ First (a) attracts social conservatives and (b) economic revolutionaries but must either align itself with the socially progressive & economically ambiguous Labour or the socially ambiguous & economically steadfast National. Once NZ First's in power, they must therefore prop up a party that necessarily diverges from them in one facet but which can be convinced to see things their way in the other.

This is the problem for minor parties... in government, they become complicit with the actions of the Government and in an electorate where none of the parties have much moral fibre, their voters are always one step away from "might as well vote for National/Labour". The Greens are probably very lucky that NZ First are the actual coalition partners... it gives them a "look, we've been screwed over by Winston Peters at every turn, if you give us more votes then we'll be able to enforce our agenda" narrative.

So... I can see people switching from NZ First to ACT because it wouldn't have been clear that they'd go with Labour (even Little/Ardern's very anti-immigration and Asian people take on Labour) over National. And as Costa is saying, these minor parties are really "protest votes" since everyone pretty much knows that they're remora fish swimming with the National and Labour sharks. So, you can vote safely for whichever and signal "look, party that I really support, I don't like what you're doing now so I'm going to inflate the vote of your minor party buddy without having to worry about causing our coalition to not win the post election negotiations". NZ First, of course, swings both ways but people are always going to imagine "well, deep down Winston's really like me, i.e. red/blue" rather than "a power obsessed survivor who hates immigration".
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Outer Sparta
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Posts: 15109
Founded: Dec 26, 2014
Democratic Socialists

Postby Outer Sparta » Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:11 pm

Isn't Labour up by a lot in the polls due to their coronavirus response?
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Shrillland
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 22265
Founded: Apr 12, 2010
Scandinavian Liberal Paradise

Postby Shrillland » Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:14 pm

Outer Sparta wrote:Isn't Labour up by a lot in the polls due to their coronavirus response?


Yes, but the latest 1 News poll has them going back down again. They're still polling at a bare outright majority, but they likely won't keep it by September.
Last edited by Shrillland on Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Outer Sparta
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Founded: Dec 26, 2014
Democratic Socialists

Postby Outer Sparta » Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:23 pm

Shrillland wrote:
Outer Sparta wrote:Isn't Labour up by a lot in the polls due to their coronavirus response?


Yes, but the latest 1 News poll has them going back down again. They're still polling at a bare outright majority, but they likely won't keep it by September.

A Labour-Greens coalition would seem likely if NZ First don't reach the threshold.
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Drongonia
Minister
 
Posts: 3222
Founded: Feb 11, 2019
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Drongonia » Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:23 pm

Labour probably have this one in the bag, which is fine in my books. A c c e l e r a t e ! ! ! But seriously, Muller is... meh and the only significant movement in the minor parties has been NZF changing places with ACT, which actually doesn't impact the makeup of parliament that much.

Mind you, the most recent polling data was all taken before we had heard what went on in the COVID isolation facilities, people being let out and refusing to take tests etc.
Last edited by Drongonia on Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Costa Fierro
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Founded: Dec 09, 2013
Ex-Nation

Postby Costa Fierro » Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:26 pm

Drongonia wrote:Labour probably have this one in the bag, which is fine in my books. A c c e l e r a t e ! ! !

But seriously, Muller is... meh. Mind you, the most recent polling data was all taken before we had heard what went on in the COVID isolation facilities, people being let out and refusing to take tests etc.


The One News Colmar Brunton poll was done after the whole border shitshow. Still didn't manage to put National back up in serious contention, and Woodhouse continuing to insist a homeless man entered one of the quarantine hotels despite a complete lack of evidence and then going all Turning Point in Parliament probably didn't help.
"Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist." - George Carlin

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Drongonia
Minister
 
Posts: 3222
Founded: Feb 11, 2019
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Drongonia » Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:31 pm

Costa Fierro wrote:The One News Colmar Brunton poll was done after the whole border shitshow. Still didn't manage to put National back up in serious contention, and Woodhouse continuing to insist a homeless man entered one of the quarantine hotels despite a complete lack of evidence and then going all Turning Point in Parliament probably didn't help.

True, I checked myself after you said it and I stand corrected. June 20 - 24 the polling was done. I reckon we'll see a shift back to the Nats being at ~40% and Labour at about 45 - 46% come election time, with Labour+Greens bringing a coalition together. It could be a tight-run thing though depending on how much support ACT gets, since all they need is Seymour in Epsom as their anchor.

Also the Woodhouse thing is interesting. He's actually been doing a lot in terms of going to the media and making noise about this whole thing, but the homeless man story is so stupid. If it happened, provide some proof or at least name who told you/what position that person had.
Last edited by Drongonia on Sun Jun 28, 2020 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Costa Fierro
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 19902
Founded: Dec 09, 2013
Ex-Nation

Postby Costa Fierro » Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:04 pm

Drongonia wrote:
Costa Fierro wrote:The One News Colmar Brunton poll was done after the whole border shitshow. Still didn't manage to put National back up in serious contention, and Woodhouse continuing to insist a homeless man entered one of the quarantine hotels despite a complete lack of evidence and then going all Turning Point in Parliament probably didn't help.

True, I checked myself after you said it and I stand corrected. June 20 - 24 the polling was done. I reckon we'll see a shift back to the Nats being at ~40% and Labour at about 45 - 46% come election time, with Labour+Greens bringing a coalition together. It could be a tight-run thing though depending on how much support ACT gets, since all they need is Seymour in Epsom as their anchor.

Also the Woodhouse thing is interesting. He's actually been doing a lot in terms of going to the media and making noise about this whole thing, but the homeless man story is so stupid. If it happened, provide some proof or at least name who told you/what position that person had.


It's not the first time that he's made claims based on heresay, but the only reason he's doing it was because he was right about the two women who travelled to Wellington.
"Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist." - George Carlin

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Costa Fierro
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 19902
Founded: Dec 09, 2013
Ex-Nation

Postby Costa Fierro » Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:46 pm

"Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist." - George Carlin


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Forsher
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 22041
Founded: Jan 30, 2012
New York Times Democracy

Postby Forsher » Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:53 pm



I was just going to flip a coin on this. Kinda tempted to vote yes now.
That it Could be What it Is, Is What it Is

Stop making shit up, though. Links, or it's a God-damn lie and you know it.

The normie life is heteronormie

We won't know until 2053 when it'll be really obvious what he should've done. [...] We have no option but to guess.

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Nobel Hobos 2
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 14114
Founded: Dec 04, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:07 am



How is that even legal?

Is it legal for foreigners to fund actual election campaigns ..?
I report offenses if and only if they are crimes.
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The Liberated Territories
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Posts: 11859
Founded: Dec 03, 2013
Capitalizt

Postby The Liberated Territories » Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:13 am

probably act unless there are any better options idk i'm not kiwi
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Costa Fierro
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 19902
Founded: Dec 09, 2013
Ex-Nation

Postby Costa Fierro » Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:43 am

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:


How is that even legal?

Is it legal for foreigners to fund actual election campaigns ..?


For third parties such as this, yes. There's no restrictions.
"Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist." - George Carlin

User avatar
Costa Fierro
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 19902
Founded: Dec 09, 2013
Ex-Nation

Postby Costa Fierro » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:37 pm

"Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist." - George Carlin

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Shrillland
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Posts: 22265
Founded: Apr 12, 2010
Scandinavian Liberal Paradise

Postby Shrillland » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:49 pm



Remember, foreign interference is bad only if it happens to the United States(TM), not if it comes from it.
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Costa Fierro
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Posts: 19902
Founded: Dec 09, 2013
Ex-Nation

Postby Costa Fierro » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:51 pm

Shrillland wrote:


Remember, foreign interference is bad only if it happens to the United States(TM), not if it comes from it.


We can be thankful it's not some state-sponsored influencing, but still, not good at all on the whole.
"Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist." - George Carlin

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Shrillland
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 22265
Founded: Apr 12, 2010
Scandinavian Liberal Paradise

Postby Shrillland » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:53 pm

Costa Fierro wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Remember, foreign interference is bad only if it happens to the United States(TM), not if it comes from it.


We can be thankful it's not some state-sponsored influencing, but still, not good at all on the whole.


Also, I don't think it'll lead anywhere. Kiwis have more sense than many Americans on this issue...though the polls seem to be all over the place.
How America Came to This, by Kowani: Racialised Politics, Ideological Media Gaslighting, and What It All Means For The Future
Plebiscite Plaza 2024
Confused by the names I use for House districts? Here's a primer!
In 1963, Doctor Who taught us all we need to know about politics when a cave woman said, "Old men see no further than tomorrow's meat".

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Outer Sparta
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 15109
Founded: Dec 26, 2014
Democratic Socialists

Postby Outer Sparta » Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:15 pm

Shrillland wrote:


Remember, foreign interference is bad only if it happens to the United States(TM), not if it comes from it.

I mean, American interest groups often try to insert themselves with other affairs, such as Ireland's abortion referendum and their stuff with El Salvador.
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Drongonia
Minister
 
Posts: 3222
Founded: Feb 11, 2019
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Drongonia » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:18 pm


Find it funny how for years China has snaked their way into our political system with no contest - but as soon as an America-based lobby group tries to set up a branch here they all go mad. This is just another example of why democracy is a sham.

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Costa Fierro
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 19902
Founded: Dec 09, 2013
Ex-Nation

Postby Costa Fierro » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:31 pm

Drongonia wrote:

Find it funny how for years China has snaked their way into our political system with no contest - but as soon as an America-based lobby group tries to set up a branch here they all go mad. This is just another example of why democracy is a sham.


China hasn't snaked their way into our political system at all.
"Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist." - George Carlin

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New Rogernomics
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9510
Founded: Aug 22, 2006
Left-wing Utopia

Postby New Rogernomics » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:37 pm

Normally when a government gets in for a term, they get in for another, as we saw with Helen Clark, and then John Key.

Labour + Greens is polling a lot better than they did last time, so I'd suspect they have a good chance of governing alone on current numbers.

I find that pollsters always hilariously under-rate Winston Peters, and only got it right once because they always say he'll never be in Parliament again.

It is entirely possible that National goes well in the election, though even with a good National showing, I'd still see Labour winning another term propped up at least by the Greens.
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Costa Fierro
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Founded: Dec 09, 2013
Ex-Nation

Postby Costa Fierro » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:35 pm

New Rogernomics wrote:It is entirely possible that National goes well in the election, though even with a good National showing, I'd still see Labour winning another term propped up at least by the Greens.


This isn't the face of a man that believes things are likely to go well.
"Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist." - George Carlin

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Drongonia
Minister
 
Posts: 3222
Founded: Feb 11, 2019
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Drongonia » Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:11 pm


Jesus that's a hilariously bad image. Extremely cursed.
Last edited by Drongonia on Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Nobel Hobos 2
Postmaster-General
 
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Founded: Dec 04, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:25 am

Drongonia wrote:

Find it funny how for years China has snaked their way into our political system with no contest - but as soon as an America-based lobby group tries to set up a branch here they all go mad. This is just another example of why democracy is a sham.


Having one foreign power involved is having an unwanted guest. Having two is being host to a proxy war.
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