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What if the Islamic Revolution never happened

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Green October Z
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What if the Islamic Revolution never happened

Postby Green October Z » Tue May 12, 2020 9:31 am

In the late 1970s, revolution was in the air in Iran. The people were sick of the Shah and the culture of corruption that characterized the elites. The country was wealthy, but many people were poor. The country was secular, but many felt that said secularism went against their religious beliefs. We all know that in 1979 there was a revolution that saw the Shah overthrown and the monarchy replaced with a Shia Islamic theocracy. Since then, things have gotten arguably worse for Iran as the new Islamic government turned out to be even more tyrannical and insane than the previous one, and arguably even more corrupt.

However, not all Iranian revolutionaries were Islamist as during Iran's revolutionary period there were two major revolutionary factions. You had the Islamists that ultimately created the batshit insane regime that Iran has today, and you had the secular nationalists which sadly lost. How do you think things would have turned out if either the Shah remained in power or the secular nationalists won?

In my view, there is simply no practical way that the Shah could have remained in power given his extreme lack of popularity at the time. However, if the secular nationalists won the revolution then I could see things turning out to be much better for Iran. For one thing, they were a secular faction that advocated liberal democratic practices and despite opposing the Western-backed Shah, they still wanted to maintain decent relations with the West and were wary of the Soviet Union. The human rights situation in Iran wouldn't be so horrible, the economy would be much better, terrorist groups like Hezbollah or Hamas either never would have come to exist of would be much weaker, meaning that the Middle East as a whole might be less unstable.

What are your thoughts on how things could have gone differently? What implications would it have for the Middle East and the world as a whole?
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Postby Munkcestrian RepubIic » Tue May 12, 2020 9:32 am

Ask alternatehistory.com.
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Green October Z
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Postby Green October Z » Tue May 12, 2020 9:33 am

Munkcestrian RepubIic wrote:Ask alternatehistory.com.


I want to know your thoughts, though.
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Postby Sildorian Empire » Tue May 12, 2020 9:42 am

Oh it would have been extremely easy for the Shah to remain in power. All he'd need to do was not going to the US for surgery for his cancer and giving a standing shoot-on-sight order to the Artesh in late 1978. His lack of balls for necessary bloodshed, and -to a greater degree- the Army deciding to remain "neutral" and Bakhtiar hoping to negotiate with the reactionaries right when the Shah left for his surgery is why the revolution even succeeded.

I'm assuming, if the monarchy had remained, he's die from cancer -or abdicate- by 1981-82 and get replaced by his more liberal-minded son, who'd probably ease down the ridiculous authoritarianism gradually just like every other US-aligned tinpot dictatorship did in the 80s and 90s.
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Postby Sundiata » Tue May 12, 2020 9:51 am

Well, I won't be so bold as to say that the United States needs a Catholic revolution, I will say that many secular societies with high levels of inequality are at risk to similar levels of turbulence.
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Green October Z
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Postby Green October Z » Tue May 12, 2020 9:56 am

Sundiata wrote:Well, I won't be so bold as to say that the United States needs a Catholic revolution, I will say that many secular societies with high levels of inequality are at risk to similar levels of turbulence.


And religious societies are not?
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Sundiata
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Postby Sundiata » Tue May 12, 2020 10:21 am

Green October Z wrote:
Sundiata wrote:Well, I won't be so bold as to say that the United States needs a Catholic revolution, I will say that many secular societies with high levels of inequality are at risk to similar levels of turbulence.


And religious societies are not?

I suspect not.
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Postby Rojava Free State » Tue May 12, 2020 10:22 am

Iran would probably be alot like Albania minus the violence. So secular and safe (unlike the latter nation).
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Green October Z
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Postby Green October Z » Tue May 12, 2020 10:40 am

Sundiata wrote:
Green October Z wrote:
And religious societies are not?

I suspect not.


Care to explain why?
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Monsone
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Postby Monsone » Tue May 12, 2020 10:45 am

It's a pretty simple answer. Iran would be a modern, multi-party, ethnical diverse and democratic nation that would likely be the USA's favorite ally in the Middle East because unlike Saudi Arabia, it is able to hold it's own militarily. It's possible the Shah may be a constitutional monarch at this point, or just a symbolic pretender to an abolished throne. But long story short, Iran would probably be similar to a European country in many ways, with it's citiznes likely experiencing better living conditions thanks to no sanctions and free trade.

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Rojava Free State
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Postby Rojava Free State » Tue May 12, 2020 10:47 am

Monsone wrote:It's a pretty simple answer. Iran would be a modern, multi-party, ethnical diverse and democratic nation that would likely be the USA's favorite ally in the Middle East because unlike Saudi Arabia, it is able to hold it's own militarily. It's possible the Shah may be a constitutional monarch at this point, or just a symbolic pretender to an abolished throne. But long story short, Iran would probably be similar to a European country in many ways, with it's citiznes likely experiencing better living conditions thanks to no sanctions and free trade.


Considering what happened in western European nations that were once dictatorships like Portugal and Spain, i agree that Iran could have become a modern democracy.

I wish they did. When you get past the sharia state Iran is right now, iranian culture is really cool.
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Postby Sylh Alanor » Tue May 12, 2020 10:56 am

Sundiata wrote:Well, I won't be so bold as to say that the United States needs a Catholic revolution, I will say that many secular societies with high levels of inequality are at risk to similar levels of turbulence.

This is entirely irrelevant to the conversation and it's a bit unsettling that you try to force every talking point back to Catholicism.
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Heloin
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Postby Heloin » Tue May 12, 2020 11:08 am

The Iranian revolution would have happened is the simple answer, it's where does the revolution end is the question. It could end with the fall of the Shah, it could end where it did, or it could have ended later. To avoid the Iranian revolution as it happened is for the Iranian coup d'état to have never taken place, that's about it.
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Green October Z
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Postby Green October Z » Tue May 12, 2020 11:10 am

Heloin wrote:The Iranian revolution would have happened is the simple answer, it's where does the revolution end is the question. It could end with the fall of the Shah, it could end where it did, or it could have ended later. To avoid the Iranian revolution as it happened is for the Iranian coup d'état to have never taken place, that's about it.


Good job not reading the OP :p
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Heloin
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Postby Heloin » Tue May 12, 2020 11:13 am

Green October Z wrote:
Heloin wrote:The Iranian revolution would have happened is the simple answer, it's where does the revolution end is the question. It could end with the fall of the Shah, it could end where it did, or it could have ended later. To avoid the Iranian revolution as it happened is for the Iranian coup d'état to have never taken place, that's about it.


Good job not reading the OP :p

My answers came after reading the OP.
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Green October Z
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Postby Green October Z » Tue May 12, 2020 11:18 am

Heloin wrote:
Green October Z wrote:
Good job not reading the OP :p

My answers came after reading the OP.


Well, I wasn't necessarily asking what if there was no revolution. I was also asking what if it was the secular nationalist faction of the revolutionaries that prevailed.
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Heloin
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Postby Heloin » Tue May 12, 2020 11:48 am

Green October Z wrote:
Heloin wrote:My answers came after reading the OP.


Well, I wasn't necessarily asking what if there was no revolution. I was also asking what if it was the secular nationalist faction of the revolutionaries that prevailed.

They probably wouldn't is still the answer.
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Postby Pilipinas and Malaya » Tue May 12, 2020 11:53 am

If the secular branch won, that means that there would likely be less intervention in Iraq and Syria, and probably a significant reduction of tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and Iran and the US+G5. The Shah may become even more of a symbolic position, with almost all of the executive powers going to the Prime Minister (?).

I'm not entirely sure about culture and othe things, but one thing for sure is that there would be less geopolitical tension in the region.
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Sundiata
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Postby Sundiata » Tue May 12, 2020 12:04 pm

Green October Z wrote:
Sundiata wrote:I suspect not.


Care to explain why?

Honestly, it depends on the religion. Iqta is very different from confucian bureaucracy, which is very different from feudalism.
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Postby Trollzyn the Infinite » Tue May 12, 2020 2:25 pm

Sylh Alanor wrote:
Sundiata wrote:Well, I won't be so bold as to say that the United States needs a Catholic revolution, I will say that many secular societies with high levels of inequality are at risk to similar levels of turbulence.

This is entirely irrelevant to the conversation and it's a bit unsettling that you try to force every talking point back to Catholicism.


Bro, fucking this.

Sun, you need to stop forcing Catholicism into every topic. It's very cult-like. You don't have to bring up the Catholic Church in every thread. There is more to life than the Catholic Church.
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Deacarsia
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What if the Islamic Revolution never happened?

Postby Deacarsia » Tue May 12, 2020 2:35 pm

The best way to prevent the Islamic Revolution would have been if the 28 Mordad coup d’état had never occurred.

Assuming however that the Shah somehow was able to remain in power, peacefully avoiding the Islamic Revolution, I think that Iran definitely would be more secular and pro-Western, though I do not think that this would greatly influence peace in the region; Sunni Saudi Arabia is a more destabilizing agent that Shi’ite Iran.
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Deacarsia
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What if the Islamic Revolution never happened?

Postby Deacarsia » Tue May 12, 2020 2:36 pm

Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
Sylh Alanor wrote:This is entirely irrelevant to the conversation and it's a bit unsettling that you try to force every talking point back to Catholicism.


Bro, fucking this.

Sun, you need to stop forcing Catholicism into every topic. It's very cult-like. You don't have to bring up the Catholic Church in every thread. There is more to life than the Catholic Church.

Catholicism is a religion, like Islam, which is the topic of the thread. This therefore is not irrelevant to the conversation, despite your disagreement with his point.
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Albrenia
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Postby Albrenia » Tue May 12, 2020 2:37 pm

I suspect they'd be way better off than they are now, although far from perfect.

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Nakena
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Postby Nakena » Tue May 12, 2020 2:40 pm

Deacarsia wrote:
Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
Bro, fucking this.

Sun, you need to stop forcing Catholicism into every topic. It's very cult-like. You don't have to bring up the Catholic Church in every thread. There is more to life than the Catholic Church.

Catholicism is a religion, like Islam, which is the topic of the thread. This therefore is not irrelevant to the conversation, despite your disagreement with his point.


Nah it's because theres a very small, yet vocal minority of people trying to force their very specific creed upon other people here on NSG.

The last one who did that were some islamist dudes last summer.
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Rojava Free State
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Postby Rojava Free State » Tue May 12, 2020 3:34 pm

Nakena wrote:
Deacarsia wrote:Catholicism is a religion, like Islam, which is the topic of the thread. This therefore is not irrelevant to the conversation, despite your disagreement with his point.


Nah it's because theres a very small, yet vocal minority of people trying to force their very specific creed upon other people here on NSG.

The last one who did that were some islamist dudes last summer.


How could I forget the islamists? Lmao talking about "dating Muslims is garam. DIE YOU!"
Rojava Free State wrote:Listen yall. I'm only gonna say it once but I want you to remember it. This ain't a world fit for good men. It seems like you gotta be monstrous just to make it. Gotta have a little bit of darkness within you just to survive. You gotta stoop low everyday it seems like. Stoop all the way down to the devil in these times. And then one day you look in the mirror and you realize that you ain't you anymore. You're just another monster, and thanks to your actions, someone else will eventually become as warped and twisted as you. Never forget that the best of us are just the best of a bad lot. Being at the top of a pile of feces doesn't make you anything but shit like the rest. Never forget that.

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