Next nation to leave the European union

[Savojarna]

If the US hadn't been around in the 90's, this would actually be true. We should have kicked you back across the Atlantic the second the USSR collapsed and taken Europe's fate into our own hansd. Now if only you guys would stop talking about leaving us and fucking do it already.

Wat?

I'm not sure what the Wat refers to, but: In 1992-1994, Russia had an extremely pro-Western government that had defined Russia's national interest as joining Western structures as soon as possible, and was willing to make extremely large concessions for this. Europe was open to this, and the EU has managed to sign some important treaties with Russia in that time; however, the US insisted on keeping Russia at arms length and treating it essentially as a servant state. For instance, suggestions for NATO to disband and be replaced with a broader security structure that includes Russia were rejected, Russian concerns on international policy in Europe were ignored, and Russia itself was forced to adopt a pretty insane and unstructured hyper-capitalist model. This led to the Russian foreign minister be replaced in the mid-90s by a less pro-Western minister, and made those in the government that were oriented towards Europe lose their foundation, to be replaced with a faction that still saw Europe/the West as a potential ally, but thought of Russia as an independent partner rather than a country that would join the Western order in the medium term. It was only when Primakov realised that the US would not accept Russia as an equal, and concerns regarding NATO expansion and the sovereignty of nations (Kosovo, first and foremost) were decided with barely even taking Russian positions into account, that Russia started seeing the US and the West as a whole as a rival again. Had we actually held out a hand in the early 90s, as Europe mostly wanted to, we probably would have a peaceful alliance and decent trade with Russia, and chances are Putin may not be in power right now. But well, the US had to do some "COLD WAR WINNERS!!1!1" gloating, and we ended up with this.

[Suid-Afrika and Rhodesia]

I love the names of the exit movements you made up. All of them are funny. But if I had to guess onthe next nation to leave I'd guess Italy. I also think Poland Hungary and Czechia and possibly Austria could all leave together to form a
central European block.

[Baltenstein]

Wat?

I'm not sure what the Wat refers to, but: In 1992-1994, Russia had an extremely pro-Western government that had defined Russia's national interest as joining Western structures as soon as possible, and was willing to make extremely large concessions for this. Europe was open to this, and the EU has managed to sign some important treaties with Russia in that time; however, the US insisted on keeping Russia at arms length and treating it essentially as a servant state. For instance, suggestions for NATO to disband and be replaced with a broader security structure that includes Russia were rejected, Russian concerns on international policy in Europe were ignored, and Russia itself was forced to adopt a pretty insane and unstructured hyper-capitalist model. This led to the Russian foreign minister be replaced in the mid-90s by a less pro-Western minister, and made those in the government that were oriented towards Europe lose their foundation, to be replaced with a faction that still saw Europe/the West as a potential ally, but thought of Russia as an independent partner rather than a country that would join the Western order in the medium term. It was only when Primakov realised that the US would not accept Russia as an equal, and concerns regarding NATO expansion and the sovereignty of nations (Kosovo, first and foremost) were decided with barely even taking Russian positions into account, that Russia started seeing the US and the West as a whole as a rival again. Had we actually held out a hand in the early 90s, as Europe mostly wanted to, we probably would have a peaceful alliance and decent trade with Russia, and chances are Putin may not be in power right now. But well, the US had to do some "COLD WAR WINNERS!!1!1" gloating, and we ended up with this.

I am actually increasingly doubtful about this. Take for example, Erdogan's Turkey. There used to be a time they were being pampered by European governments, attracting huge economic investments, Cyprus was being pressured into solving the Cyprus issue to ease Turkey's entry into the EU, when the Euro crisis broke out government spokespersons were saying that the EU would be better off with Turkey as a member rather than the struggling economies of Southern Europe and SE Europe and so on.
Look at were we are with Turkey now. My point is, sooner or later the Russian leadership would have gotten it into its head that it has an "imperial legacy" and would have turned towards a form of anti-Western authoritarianism with a rival rather aligning foreign policy agenda. Historically, the only way to avert a country with "former Great Power" status trying to regain past glories is to utterly, and I mean completely, crush them. France largely dropped the idea that it can be a continental hegemon after being defeated by Britain and/or Germany several times, Germany after losing two world wars, Japan after losing one and taking two nukes to the face. In the case of the former two, utter military defeat was coupled with massive economic recovery and economic prosperity afterwards, making the idea of challenging the Western order even more pointless in mainstream political opinion.
Russia, Turkey and China on the hand, by courtesy of never having been defeated and occupied completely still drift towards a "might makes right" mentality and likely would have regardless of how many niceties other countries would have thrown in their direction.

[Region of Dwipantara]

Tbh the geopolitical history of Europe has always been about the balance of power between nations, which isn't a good thing to have in an integration project.

[Samicana]

I don't get all the hate for the EU. Europeans not killing the shit out of each other constantly seems something to keep going, if possible, to me.

Isn't it mostly just the old people who remember when their countries had empires that miss the old days when their countries were more economically independent?

I'm an American, so maybe I just don't get the European perspective, but I'd love a similar union with Canada and other more stable North American states. That would be so lit.

[Region of Dwipantara]

I don't get all the hate for the EU. Europeans not killing the shit out of each other constantly seems something to keep going, if possible, to me.

Isn't it mostly just the old people who remember when their countries had empires that miss the old days when their countries were more economically independent?

I'm an American, so maybe I just don't get the European perspective, but I'd love a similar union with Canada and other more stable North American states. That would be so lit.

Probably because a few reasons. E.g. the difference between them is too great? For starters, EU must have one or a few lingua franca that everybody know and everbody can communicate with. Somekind of European identity is badly needed if they want to stay intact. Also, the pushing-pulling of power between nation vs. union have resulted in the byzantine and not-very-democratic bureaucracy that exist today, and which resulted in many problems - e.g., monetary union without political union (recipe for disaster). Seems like Europe is doomed to be a fractured mess unable to stand against the winds of US and China, which is pretty sad.

[Savojarna]

Isn't it mostly just the old people who remember when their countries had empires that miss the old days when their countries were more economically independent?

I'm an American, so maybe I just don't get the European perspective, but I'd love a similar union with Canada and other more stable North American states. That would be so lit.

Probably because a few reasons. E.g. the difference between them is too great? For starters, EU must have one or a few lingua franca that everybody know and everbody can communicate with. Somekind of European identity is badly needed if they want to stay intact. Also, the pushing-pulling of power between nation vs. union have resulted in the byzantine and not-very-democratic bureaucracy that exist today, and which resulted in many problems - e.g., monetary union without political union (recipe for disaster). Seems like Europe is doomed to be a fractured mess unable to stand against the winds of US and China, which is pretty sad.

I agree with all of this, but surely the solution would then be a better EU rather than no EU? Europe is even more fractured if every country is acting on its own.

[Baltenstein]

I don't get all the hate for the EU. Europeans not killing the shit out of each other constantly seems something to keep going, if possible, to me.

Isn't it mostly just the old people who remember when their countries had empires that miss the old days when their countries were more economically independent?

I'm an American, so maybe I just don't get the European perspective, but I'd love a similar union with Canada and other more stable North American states. That would be so lit.

Canadians would most likely be overwhelmingly against this.

[Risottia]

I don't get all the hate for the EU. Europeans not killing the shit out of each other constantly seems something to keep going, if possible, to me.

Isn't it mostly just the old people who remember when their countries had empires that miss the old days when their countries were more economically independent?

Nah.
The only European countries that clinged onto their empires after WW2 were France, NL, Belgium, Britain, Denmark and Portugal. France, NL and Britain lost basically everything by 1960 and the rest became overseas stuff of some sort. Portugal was a fascist dictatorship and lost everything way before they joined the EU. Belgium had personal property of its king and it went its way by 1960ish. Denmark lost Iceland for good in WW2, and Faer Oer and Greenland are in personal union now.
As for Germany and Italy, Germany lost its overseas stuff in WW1 and Italy in WW2. Spain lost its last bits to the US at the beginning of the XX century. The other countries (Ireland, Luxembourg, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czechia, Austria, Hungary, Croatia, Poland) never had a colonial empire to begin with, and the continental empires had been lost way before the EEC.
If anything, the EU gives the former colonial power a new market space to recover a bit after losing their colonial markets.

[Risottia]

Isn't it mostly just the old people who remember when their countries had empires that miss the old days when their countries were more economically independent?

I'm an American, so maybe I just don't get the European perspective, but I'd love a similar union with Canada and other more stable North American states. That would be so lit.

Canadians would most likely be overwhelmingly against this.

Well, I assume an arrangement could be made. Kick out that orange guy and hail Harry Mountbatten as Viceroy of Canada and HBM's Other Territories' Between the Atlantic and the Pacific.

[Risottia]

Tbh the geopolitical history of Europe has always been about the balance of power between nations, which isn't a good thing to have in an integration project.

Balance of power between nations?

[Risottia]

I love the names of the exit movements you made up. All of them are funny. But if I had to guess onthe next nation to leave I'd guess Italy. I also think Poland Hungary and Czechia and possibly Austria could all leave together to form a
central European block.

Italy? Why?

Also, the V4 (Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia) exists already, but it wouldn't survive without the EU funding, as all those countries are net receivers.

[Unthank]

Honestly? I suspect the next country to leave the EU will be the UK.
Again.

[Werreales]

I think France will leave the European Union. Germany and its friends are too stubborn and egoist to let the ECB fix the European economy. They did the same thing with Greece, which led to the Euro crisis.

[Loben The 2nd]

Isn't it mostly just the old people who remember when their countries had empires that miss the old days when their countries were more economically independent?

I'm an American, so maybe I just don't get the European perspective, but I'd love a similar union with Canada and other more stable North American states. That would be so lit.

Canadians would most likely be overwhelmingly against this.

I however would be violently opposed.

[Setartica]

Me, an American, just casually watching the heated debate because I don't care

Also, how about Germany? Either Germanexit or Germanope

[-Astoria]

Honestly? I suspect the next country to leave the EU will be the UK.
Again.

But they're already gone - well, officially after December 31.

---

Me, an American, just casually watching the heated debate because I don't care

Why did you join again?

Also, how about Germany? Either Germanexit or Germanope

How about Dexit?

[Arcturus Novus]

I think Orban would probably force a Hungarian exit from the EU if he had his way, but I don't think it would have any long-term benefits for Hungary. IIRC they receive more than they give re: EU funding.

[The Blaatschapen]

I think France will leave the European Union. Germany and its friends are too stubborn and egoist to let the ECB fix the European economy. They did the same thing with Greece, which led to the Euro crisis.

France?

It makes no sense for France to go next. If France goes, it goes in a group or it won't go at all. And that's a big if. The group has to contain Spain, Italy at the least.

[Novus America]

I don't get all the hate for the EU. Europeans not killing the shit out of each other constantly seems something to keep going, if possible, to me.

Isn't it mostly just the old people who remember when their countries had empires that miss the old days when their countries were more economically independent?

I'm an American, so maybe I just don't get the European perspective, but I'd love a similar union with Canada and other more stable North American states. That would be so lit.

The difference between say Ireland and Hungary is much greater than the difference between the US and Canada. The big issue is the EU has too many major sticking points. You have ultra neoliberals in Brussels and Ireland wanting open boarders, outsourcing and giving everything to multinationals, then you have right wing nationalist populists in Hungary and Poland. They huge conflict over letting in immigrants from North Africa and the Middle East

Plus the Germans are incredibly conservative on fiscal policy, whereas the South supports inflationary and and expansionary fiscal stimulus, and government spending.

Then you have the Russia issue, some countries like Germany care more about trade with Russia, while others like the Poles view Russia as a threat. Germany supports the very controversial Nordstream II pipeline which the Poles think is something like Molotov Ribbentrop. Actually Germany is a lot of the problem. But they are very powerful in it.

There are simply too many conflicts and the EU has done a very poor job managing these conflicts.

Unless the EU can manage them better they will just get worse.

[Vistulange]

I think Orban would probably force a Hungarian exit from the EU if he had his way, but I don't think it would have any long-term benefits for Hungary. IIRC they receive more than they give re: EU funding.

I don't see why Hungary should leave. As long as Hungary is in the European Union, alongside other authoritising countries such as Poland, it really doesn't risk being sanctioned for its executive aggrandisement. Moreover, it gains to benefit politically: as it remains in the EU, it can block and hinder European attempts to promote democracy or prevent authoritisation in other countries, which would make for a more comfortable international arena for Hungary (and its fellows) overall.

Aside from a kneejerk reaction of "EU bad, Hungary leave!", there isn't much point to Hungary leaving the EU, especially if Poland is still in the club.

[Novus America]

But you won't, because you want a capitalist bulwark against the Soviets.

There are no more “soviets” the current russian nation is better off politically and economically being our friend or at least trading partner than enemy.

Meanwhile Russia waves around pictures of Stalin. Thing is the Soviet Union is gone, but Russia never fully acknowledged that, they are still in a Soviet foreign policy mindset despite their different economic structure. Russia will not let the ghost of the Soviet Union go.

Making Russia a friend is not easy as Russia and the west are firmly opposed on many things.

That being said Europe should not need the US. The EU has over 10 times the economy and about three times the population. The EU should be able to crush Russia like a bug on its own if it tries anything. But the EU is too divided and major EU countries like Germany completely neglect their military forces.

[Novus America]

I think the Americans just want to see Europe kept as powerless as possible.

This is obviously false as we have been complaining Europe spends to LITTLE on defense, has two few troops, planes and tanks, and relies too much on us.

The US wants Europe to cover the European front so the US can focus on the Pacific where the real threat is.

[Major-Tom]

I think Orban would probably force a Hungarian exit from the EU if he had his way, but I don't think it would have any long-term benefits for Hungary. IIRC they receive more than they give re: EU funding.

I don't see why Hungary should leave. As long as Hungary is in the European Union, alongside other authoritising countries such as Poland, it really doesn't risk being sanctioned for its executive aggrandisement. Moreover, it gains to benefit politically: as it remains in the EU, it can block and hinder European attempts to promote democracy or prevent authoritisation in other countries, which would make for a more comfortable international arena for Hungary (and its fellows) overall.

Aside from a kneejerk reaction of "EU bad, Hungary leave!", there isn't much point to Hungary leaving the EU, especially if Poland is still in the club.

Ideally, the folks in the European Commission would level penalties on Hungary until they reverse a number of authoritarian policies that don't align with the EU's supposed values as laid out in their Charter of Fundamental Rights. If Orban were to continue to consolidate his power with all that, maybe a discussion would be had on revoking Hungary's membership.

But they won't do either of those things, because it's a known fact that the folks in the EU Commission are really quite spineless and aloof.

If Hungary ever exits, it would be the EU's decision, not Orban's, but really, I don't see it as likely in the near future.

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

Me, an American, just casually watching the heated debate because I don't care

Also, how about Germany? Either Germanexit or Germanope

Krautout