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Coronavirus Thread IV: Legends, Laments and Lockdowns

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Have you or anyone in your vincinity been affected by COVID-19?

I don't know anyone who has been diagnosed with COVID-19
300
44%
I know someone was diagnosed with COVID-19
159
23%
Someone very close to me was diagnosed with COVID-19
42
6%
I know someone who was hospitalized with COVID-19
62
9%
Someone very close to me was hospitalized with COVID-19
30
4%
I was diagnosed with COVID-19
23
3%
I was hospitalized with COVID-19
9
1%
I don't know/unsure/other
57
8%
 
Total votes : 682

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Nanatsu no Tsuki
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Postby Nanatsu no Tsuki » Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:45 pm

Any good news about treatment or vaccine candidates?
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Vetalia
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Postby Vetalia » Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:14 pm

Nanatsu no Tsuki wrote:Any good news about treatment or vaccine candidates?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-in ... -a-vaccine

Not bad at all for less than 6 months of effort, quite spectacular in fact.
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Nanatsu no Tsuki
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Postby Nanatsu no Tsuki » Sun Jul 05, 2020 3:34 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Nanatsu no Tsuki wrote:Any good news about treatment or vaccine candidates?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-in ... -a-vaccine

Not bad at all for less than 6 months of effort, quite spectacular in fact.


That’s indeed pretty impressive for the timeframe. I hope that at least one of them pans out.
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Australian rePublic
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Postby Australian rePublic » Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:04 pm

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
No, we're suggesting that mass gatherings that involved, in total, far fewer people than would normally have been in mass gatherings over the same period, which were outdoors, and in which many of the participants were wearing masks, had a relatively small effect on overall transmission rates, which other restrictions were able to prevent turning into an increase in cases.


Protests may actually reduce community transmissions in a city. For a reason protesters probably don't want to hear: other people are more inclined to stay inside if they know there are going to be protests.

Fine. So why don't All Lives Matters protestors have the same impact? Also, for a reason protestors don't wanna hear? Well that's entierly dependant on the nature of the protest. For some protests, keeping people away might be the desired outcome

Salandriagado wrote:
Australian rePublic wrote:There were quite a few of these screenshots going around, but me, the idiot, only saved one of them, and I can longer find anymore, so here it is
Image


I notice that exactly one of those groups is wearing masks.

Cinemas too can allow customers to sit right next to eachother whilst wearing face masks. Why don't open them too, without any social distancing?
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Blakk Metal
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Postby Blakk Metal » Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:02 pm

Juristonia wrote:

You seem to think you're making some kind of point but you're not.
Yes, initially, it didn't seem like a huge deal. That was the general consensus everywhere.
And then, when it turned out it was, they adjusted their advice. That's how these things work.

Guess who didn't change his mind, even though the evidence was starting to suggest things were more serious than they seemed.

I'm not saying Trump is smart, I'm complaining that everyone in the government is trying to pin their mistakes on him.

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Nobel Hobos 2
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Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:16 pm

Rojava Free State wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
No, we're suggesting that mass gatherings that involved, in total, far fewer people than would normally have been in mass gatherings over the same period, which were outdoors, and in which many of the participants were wearing masks, had a relatively small effect on overall transmission rates, which other restrictions were able to prevent turning into an increase in cases.


If a rally of hundreds outside doesn't have a good chance of spreading covid, I really don't see why we banned gatherings of any and all sizes everywhere.

You're telling me a protest with 10000 people is less likely to spread covid than me and my friends have game night in a group numbering 5?


In the same room for hours, sharing surfaces and probably food/drinks, and breathing the same air ... the chances are quite high if anyone has it. And remember that if you want to do that, many many people (more than 10,000) will want to do something similar.

Protesters by contrast spend only a short time (each) around each infected person, AND they're outdoors. And wearing masks, which I suspect get discarded on a game night about the times the Cheetos come out.
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Liriena
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Posts: 60885
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Ex-Nation

Postby Liriena » Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:40 pm

be gay do crime


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Liriena
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Ex-Nation

Postby Liriena » Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:41 pm

Blakk Metal wrote:
Juristonia wrote:You seem to think you're making some kind of point but you're not.
Yes, initially, it didn't seem like a huge deal. That was the general consensus everywhere.
And then, when it turned out it was, they adjusted their advice. That's how these things work.

Guess who didn't change his mind, even though the evidence was starting to suggest things were more serious than they seemed.

I'm not saying Trump is smart, I'm complaining that everyone in the government is trying to pin their mistakes on him.

He's the head of state.
be gay do crime


I am:
A pansexual, pantheist, green socialist
An aspiring writer and journalist
Political compass stuff:
Economic Left/Right: -8.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.92
For: Grassroots democracy, workers' self-management, humanitarianism, pacifism, pluralism, environmentalism, interculturalism, indigenous rights, minority rights, LGBT+ rights, feminism, optimism
Against: Nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, conservatism, populism, violence, ethnocentrism, racism, sexism, religious bigotry, anti-LGBT+ bigotry, death penalty, neoliberalism, tribalism,
cynicism


⚧Copy and paste this in your sig
if you passed biology and know
gender and sex aren't the same thing.⚧

I disown most of my previous posts

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Neanderthaland
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9295
Founded: Sep 10, 2016
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Neanderthaland » Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:46 pm

Liriena wrote:
Blakk Metal wrote:I'm not saying Trump is smart, I'm complaining that everyone in the government is trying to pin their mistakes on him.

He's the head of state.

Thanks Obama!
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Region of Dwipantara
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Posts: 628
Founded: Dec 12, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Region of Dwipantara » Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:49 pm

Australian rePublic wrote:
Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
Protests may actually reduce community transmissions in a city. For a reason protesters probably don't want to hear: other people are more inclined to stay inside if they know there are going to be protests.

Fine. So why don't All Lives Matters protestors have the same impact? Also, for a reason protestors don't wanna hear? Well that's entierly dependant on the nature of the protest. For some protests, keeping people away might be the desired outcome

Salandriagado wrote:
I notice that exactly one of those groups is wearing masks.

Cinemas too can allow customers to sit right next to eachother whilst wearing face masks. Why don't open them too, without any social distancing?

Isn't it far easier for the virus to spread indoors?

...The more time you spend near someone who has COVID-19, the higher the chance their infectious droplets make it over to your face.

"I would not worry about walking by someone," Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease specialist at Johns Hopkins University, told Slate. "Even in a healthcare setting, contact is defined by being near someone for a certain amount of time. I would not worry about these fleeting encounters."....

...A preliminary report from Japanese scientists (which has yet to be peer-reviewed) suggested that the odds an infected person "transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment." Another pre-print study examined 318 outbreaks in China that involved three or more cases, and found that all but one involved the virus jumping between people indoors...
Last edited by Region of Dwipantara on Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The Alma Mater
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Postby The Alma Mater » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:08 pm



It appears the woman in question truly is mentally ill, believing she is a secret spokeswoman for Trump, various restraining orders from.previous employers etc.
Well, that's what the grapevine say. But let us assume it is true and hope she gets help instead of mocking her.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:16 pm

Nanatsu no Tsuki wrote:
Vetalia wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-in ... -a-vaccine

Not bad at all for less than 6 months of effort, quite spectacular in fact.


That’s indeed pretty impressive for the timeframe. I hope that at least one of them pans out.

I am certain one will. Too much is riding on finding a vaccine.

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Juristonia
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Founded: Oct 30, 2006
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby Juristonia » Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:32 am

Blakk Metal wrote:
Juristonia wrote:You seem to think you're making some kind of point but you're not.
Yes, initially, it didn't seem like a huge deal. That was the general consensus everywhere.
And then, when it turned out it was, they adjusted their advice. That's how these things work.

Guess who didn't change his mind, even though the evidence was starting to suggest things were more serious than they seemed.

I'm not saying Trump is smart, I'm complaining that everyone in the government is trying to pin their mistakes on him.

It's almost like they think he's the commander-in-chief or something.
Poor guy. :(
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Salandriagado
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Postby Salandriagado » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:10 am

Rojava Free State wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
No, we're suggesting that mass gatherings that involved, in total, far fewer people than would normally have been in mass gatherings over the same period, which were outdoors, and in which many of the participants were wearing masks, had a relatively small effect on overall transmission rates, which other restrictions were able to prevent turning into an increase in cases.


If a rally of hundreds outside doesn't have a good chance of spreading covid, I really don't see why we banned gatherings of any and all sizes everywhere.

You're telling me a protest with 10000 people is less likely to spread covid than me and my friends have game night in a group numbering 5?


Risks are cumulative.
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Salandriagado wrote:
Notice that the link is to the notes from a university course on probability. You clearly have nothing beyond the most absurdly simplistic understanding of the subject.
By choosing 1, you no longer have 0 probability of choosing 1. End of subject.

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Greed and Death
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Postby Greed and Death » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:17 am

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2460O7

It is begining to appear the coronavirus is airborne.

Atleast according to scientist.
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Rojava Free State
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Postby Rojava Free State » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:20 am

Salandriagado wrote:
Rojava Free State wrote:
If a rally of hundreds outside doesn't have a good chance of spreading covid, I really don't see why we banned gatherings of any and all sizes everywhere.

You're telling me a protest with 10000 people is less likely to spread covid than me and my friends have game night in a group numbering 5?


Risks are cumulative.


As i said, if we allow 1000 people to protest together, I think we should allow 5 guys to get together for other things too.

I guarantee everyone here that more people were probably infected with covid at the protests than at a barbecue. Doesn't mean the protests caused the spike in cases, because the point im trying to make is that you can allow groups to gather outside without triggering literal armageddon (so long as people mask).
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Greed and Death
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Postby Greed and Death » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:23 am

Rojava Free State wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
Risks are cumulative.


As i said, if we allow 1000 people to protest together, I think we should allow 5 guys to get together for other things too.

I guarantee everyone here that more people were probably infected with covid at the protests than at a barbecue. Doesn't mean the protests caused the spike in cases, because the point im trying to make is that you can allow groups to gather outside without triggering literal armageddon (so long as people mask).


My problem is the opposite. If we are letting Karen get her haircut it is difficult to tell people not to protest.
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Rojava Free State
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Postby Rojava Free State » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:23 am

Greed and Death wrote:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-airborne/hundreds-of-scientists-say-coronavirus-is-airborne-ask-who-to-revise-recommendations-nyt-idUSKBN2460O7

It is begining to appear the coronavirus is airborne.

Atleast according to scientist.


So what's that supposed to mean? We can't even go in a building now cause covid is just floating around the place?
Rojava Free State wrote:Listen yall. I'm only gonna say it once but I want you to remember it. This ain't a world fit for good men. It seems like you gotta be monstrous just to make it. Gotta have a little bit of darkness within you just to survive. You gotta stoop low everyday it seems like. Stoop all the way down to the devil in these times. And then one day you look in the mirror and you realize that you ain't you anymore. You're just another monster, and thanks to your actions, someone else will eventually become as warped and twisted as you. Never forget that the best of us are just the best of a bad lot. Being at the top of a pile of feces doesn't make you anything but shit like the rest. Never forget that.

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Ifreann
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Postby Ifreann » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:25 am

Rojava Free State wrote:
Salandriagado wrote:
Risks are cumulative.


As i said, if we allow 1000 people to protest together, I think we should allow 5 guys to get together for other things too.

People weren't allowed to protest. They were attacked by the police in an attempt to force them to disperse.
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Greed and Death
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Postby Greed and Death » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:29 am

Ifreann wrote:
Rojava Free State wrote:
As i said, if we allow 1000 people to protest together, I think we should allow 5 guys to get together for other things too.

People weren't allowed to protest. They were attacked by the police in an attempt to force them to disperse.

And tear gassed because coughing your lungs out will make them less infectious some how.
"Trying to solve the healthcare problem by mandating people buy insurance is like trying to solve the homeless problem by mandating people buy a house."(paraphrase from debate with Hilary Clinton)
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Greed and Death
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Postby Greed and Death » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:30 am

Rojava Free State wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-airborne/hundreds-of-scientists-say-coronavirus-is-airborne-ask-who-to-revise-recommendations-nyt-idUSKBN2460O7

It is begining to appear the coronavirus is airborne.

Atleast according to scientist.


So what's that supposed to mean? We can't even go in a building now cause covid is just floating around the place?


It appears to suggest inside places especially air conditioned inside places are very infectious.
"Trying to solve the healthcare problem by mandating people buy insurance is like trying to solve the homeless problem by mandating people buy a house."(paraphrase from debate with Hilary Clinton)
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Greed and Death
Khan of Spam
 
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Founded: Mar 20, 2008
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Postby Greed and Death » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:30 am

Rojava Free State wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-airborne/hundreds-of-scientists-say-coronavirus-is-airborne-ask-who-to-revise-recommendations-nyt-idUSKBN2460O7

It is begining to appear the coronavirus is airborne.

Atleast according to scientist.


So what's that supposed to mean? We can't even go in a building now cause covid is just floating around the place?


It appears to suggest inside places especially air conditioned inside places are very infectious.
"Trying to solve the healthcare problem by mandating people buy insurance is like trying to solve the homeless problem by mandating people buy a house."(paraphrase from debate with Hilary Clinton)
Barack Obama

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Greed and Death
Khan of Spam
 
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Ex-Nation

Postby Greed and Death » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:30 am

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

Apparently only 5% develop antibodies to this disease and herd immunity might not be achievable.
"Trying to solve the healthcare problem by mandating people buy insurance is like trying to solve the homeless problem by mandating people buy a house."(paraphrase from debate with Hilary Clinton)
Barack Obama

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Nobel Hobos 2
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Ex-Nation

Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Mon Jul 06, 2020 5:41 am

Greed and Death wrote:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-airborne/hundreds-of-scientists-say-coronavirus-is-airborne-ask-who-to-revise-recommendations-nyt-idUSKBN2460O7

It is begining to appear the coronavirus is airborne.

Atleast according to scientist.


So it's probably true, BUT.

There's a lot of evidence for infectivity dropping off beyond 2 metres (?), so the small particles which can travel further aren't a significant risk in practice. Unless they explain cases like those in NY apartments where the victim hadn't gone out at all.

I'd be more worried that we've all been using cloth masks, knowing that they aren't as good as surgical masks, and these very small particles carrying coronavirus might be the reason why. Cloth masks only work at all because water droplets are attracted to cloth, the mask isn't a true filter for anything that small.

That's the only consequence I expect. Government should recommend more strongly the wearing of surgical masks (or better if available), as they should have all along imo. Masks are successful, and less resented by the population than the other control means. Government should just build on that, and this scientist group warning of "airborne coronavirus" might just give government cover to change mask recommendations without looking like clowns who have been wrong for months.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:34 am

Greed and Death wrote:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

Apparently only 5% develop antibodies to this disease and herd immunity might not be achievable.

If that’s true than what good is a vaccine?

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