Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:48 amby Loben III
Bombadil wrote:Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
Both could fuck off out of the WTO ... and there would still be WTO.
Even together, China and the USA are only 40% of world GDP.
Even working in concert (heh) they wouldn't form a hegemony.
The US is about 25% of world GDP. The US needs to abandon this idea that its economic dominance matches its military dominance, it doesn't and probably hasn't since the 1960's. Pulling out of treaties or trade deals only causes them to collapse IF they were bilateral. The UN wouldn't collapse because the US pulls out. WHO wouldn't collapse because the US pulls out. TPP didn't collapse because the US pulled out. And WTO will not collapse because the US pulls out.
The US under Trump has been throwing away diplomatic and trade power, under the pretence of strengthening sovereignty.
It's a bad move in my opinion, but maybe some of it can be reversed by the next President. It might even be an opportunity to strike better deals (though not the CPTPP, it has members already so it's take-it-or-leave-it). Kind of a Good Cop/Bad Cop thing between Presidents!
So I think withdrawing from agreements/treaties/organizations actually makes the US weaker, diplomatically and in trade. Though I wouldn't be surprised if it's put down to some other cause, like those damn corporations not building factories like they should, or maybe tariffs of 20% aren't high enough. So you try that, and everyone seems happy that unemployment is way down, the gap between rich and poor might actually be narrowing, and you can buy a 4G phone that's mostly made in the USA! Any year now, GDP will turn around and start going up, look, it's almost flat at only minus 2%. Also nobody worries about immigration now, in fact they're calling for harsh treatment of emigrants instead.
A decade goes by. Military spending has to be increased, mainly due to Chinese escalation. A few things have to go. Welfare and stuff. Social Security is restructured as a wage-subsidy scheme so the elderly can return to the workforce. An attempt to raise more money by selling National Parks is called off due to lack of market interest (some handsome foreign bids were of course rejected).
Then there's the Second Canadian War. Their Russian equipment is surprisingly good, and they must be getting that nanotech stuff from China because Russian nanotech is big and clunky. This stuff's invisible. The President decides that trying to invade Canada was a bad idea. The Canadians are nice about it, and accept a peace deal for nothing more than an apology, Alaska and Maine.
The Wall no longer seems enough. It extends over both land borders and the coasts (in-a-bit where there's a famous beach) and it's made of titanium-resin composite so it's strong enough. But it's not a Dome. Americans deserve a dome. So the government starts raising the wall, knowing all the time there is no way they can afford a dome. The economy has been crap for decades now, even Mexicans are richer than Americans, but what choice is there? Military spending is already at 40% of GDP, Space is lost and US nanotech is pitiful ... it's too late to get back in the arms race.
Another decade limps by. The Wall is magnificent. Nobody says "dome" unless they want a fight. Americans regain the old virtues of thrift, hardiness and trial by gunfight. Tourists begin to arrive, hovering near the sights in their lighter-than-air vehicles and tittering at the reaction of locals when they throw a handful of dollars out the window. The economy begins to revive! A dollar is worth quite a lot now ... in America. It's not worth shit anywhere else, but what's it matter. Other than tourists, there's no trade, and no patriotic American would dream of spending their money anywhere but America. People are fairly content. At least, no-one is making a big noise about being unhappy.
And another decade. There's actually some modest economic growth. Perhaps because governments in the over-developed world, who have been offering aid for decades, have taken a lead from the tourists and now dump billions of dollars on the US from space. The government may be too proud to accept aid, but the people aren't.
So it's not a bright future, but it's not complete disaster either. It's now 2100, and that was the Second American Century.
..and everyone's drinking Brawndo.
Mmmmm yesss electrolytes.
