The Future of China

[Novus America]

Two things to note, the PRC is not the cheapest manufacturing base and is too unreliable.
If the US needs a cheap manufacturing base we always have Mexico. Also the focus on cheap manufacturing over productivity undermines our ability to bring our supply chains back, in most cases cheap labor is good for the short term profits of multinational megacorps but bad for society as a whole.

But sure we can and should move manufacturing back, especially steel and aluminum which can be heavily automated. They do not need lots of cheap labor. Electronics are a bit more complicated because assembly requires a lot of labor, robots generally lack the fine control to assemble them, but we can pay more upfront in sticker prices and/or use Mexico and such.

There were other choices with cheap labor who are less problematic. Who are not military and political adversaries. So even in places we have a hard time avoiding cheap labor (and again cheap labor is not really a virtue) we have alternatives to the PRC.

I think you have a good point - there are alternatives. For instance I would bet on East Africa (Kenya/Tanzania) becoming a low-skill manufacturing hub when I'm middle-aged, using inland resources from Zambia and Uganda.

The question for me then is - if there are other, better alternatives to China, then why did we, and do we continue, to use it?

Inertia, infrastructure, investment and influence really. Our corporations already spent a lot on the PRC. Sure most like Apple could easily afford to move using the literally hundreds of billions they have stashed in off shore tax havens, but they are cheap. They do not want to spend money doing something just to benefit the West economically an political.
Our corporations give zero shits about their own countries.

Also the PRC has a lot of infrastructure. The infrastructure in Africa is mostly poor.

And our companies are lazy and afraid of change.

That and the PRC uses its money to buy our politicians.

It can be done but it requires money and politicians with a spine. We have the money but many of our politicians are spineless sell outs.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

But sure we can and should move manufacturing back, especially steel and aluminum which can be heavily automated.

I'll just point out that smelting aluminium requires huge amounts of electricity. With lax pollution restrictions China has the upper hand there.

Recycling aluminium is good. It melts easily. Actually that's its main advantage over steel. Steel defies expectations: creation from raw minerals has a significantly lower greenhouse emission (per kilo) than aluminium, even allowing French levels of renewable/nuclear electricity.

Rare earth metals will also be hard to substitute. They do exist outside China, but development has been suppressed by Chinese competition.

[Novus America]

But sure we can and should move manufacturing back, especially steel and aluminum which can be heavily automated.

I'll just point out that smelting aluminium requires huge amounts of electricity. With lax pollution restrictions China has the upper hand there.

Recycling aluminium is good. It melts easily. Actually that's its main advantage over steel. Steel defies expectations: creation from raw minerals has a significantly lower greenhouse emission (per kilo) than aluminium, even allowing French levels of renewable/nuclear electricity.

Rare earth metals will also be hard to substitute. They do exist outside China, but development has been suppressed by Chinese competition.

Nuclear is the solution. Nuclear and hydroelectric. Actually despite poor pollution standards a reliance on energy imports means the PRC does not have an advantage in energy costs.

The PRC steel an aluminum are kept up vis huge government subsidies. It is their subsidies that give them the advantage. Which we can correct via corrective tariffs or subsidies of our own.
Because we can make our own aluminum and steel, we should just restrict or out right ban PRC aluminum and steel.

Rare earth metals is more tricky because refining them pollutes, and pollution controls are expensive, and we do not want to turn our own land into a post apocalyptic cyberpunk hell like the PRC does to parts of Inner Mongolia.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2015 ... e-on-earth

That being said we are actually reopening the Mountain Pass mine in California, once the biggest in the world. Of course it has to abide by strict environmental rules that drive up costs. Here again government subsidies and protectionism is required. Plus more investment in nuclear power.

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

I'll just point out that smelting aluminium requires huge amounts of electricity. With lax pollution restrictions China has the upper hand there.

Recycling aluminium is good. It melts easily. Actually that's its main advantage over steel. Steel defies expectations: creation from raw minerals has a significantly lower greenhouse emission (per kilo) than aluminium, even allowing French levels of renewable/nuclear electricity.

Rare earth metals will also be hard to substitute. They do exist outside China, but development has been suppressed by Chinese competition.

Nuclear is the solution. Nuclear and hydroelectric. Actually despite poor pollution standards a reliance on energy imports means the PRC does not have an advantage in energy costs.

The PRC steel an aluminum are kept up vis huge government subsidies. It is their subsidies that give them the advantage. Which we can correct via corrective tariffs or subsidies of our own.
Because we can make our own aluminum and steel, we should just restrict or out right ban PRC aluminum and steel.

Rare earth metals is more tricky because refining them pollutes, and pollution controls are expensive, and we do not want to turn our own land into a post apocalyptic cyberpunk hell like the PRC does to parts of Inner Mongolia.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2015 ... e-on-earth

That being said we are actually reopening the Mountain Pass mine in California, once the biggest in the world. Of course it has to abide by strict environmental rules that drive up costs. Here again government subsidies and protectionism is required. Plus more investment in nuclear power.

I’m in favour of the nuclear and hydroelectric option, so long as uranium isn’t used and the less dirtier alternatives are used. Means less space taken up for cooling, less toxic waste.

For mining, it’s pretty common here, I’d say yes, so long as our government maintains strict guidelines on where to dig, what to use, and other environmentally-friendly measures. It’s quite possible the Philippines could slowly rise up the ranks for rare earth mining, hearing our President’s expanding the mining economy after lockdown to kickstart the economy. I really hope the business moguls don’t abuse the new digging spots, but knowing them, probably unlikely they’ll follow.

[Mtwara]

Nuclear is always tomorrow's answer. By the time you cost the design, construction, pre-operations, commissioning, operation, maintenance, mothballing, refuelling, recycling, storage, disposal, decommissioning, remediation of nuclear it's expensive. SMRs, fusion, thorium salt reactors etc are all a long way away from being mature, assured products we can use to fill in gaps. In my opinion it would only really work if a large bloc (EU-GB-USA-Can-Aus?) all agreed to have one or two IDENTICAL reactors and facilities for the nuclear cycle, and could agree to just store all the waste across borders. Private companies won't commit so it will need tens of billions of free government money.

Ore refining and metal production shifted overseas for a reason. Britain's aluminium industry used to be centred in the Scottish Highlands to take advantage of hydro power but it still ended up too expensive. I think the only two ways that industry can come back are a) subsidies for products of particular interest for defence purposes b) new, cheaper processes.

The next CCP five year plan talks a lot about carbon reduction and environmental remediation. It'll be interesting to see what they manage to do in a country where the government can do what it likes.

[Novus America]

Nuclear is always tomorrow's answer. By the time you cost the design, construction, pre-operations, commissioning, operation, maintenance, mothballing, refuelling, recycling, storage, disposal, decommissioning, remediation of nuclear it's expensive. SMRs, fusion, thorium salt reactors etc are all a long way away from being mature, assured products we can use to fill in gaps. In my opinion it would only really work if a large bloc (EU-GB-USA-Can-Aus?) all agreed to have one or two IDENTICAL reactors and facilities for the nuclear cycle, and could agree to just store all the waste across borders. Private companies won't commit so it will need tens of billions of free government money.

Ore refining and metal production shifted overseas for a reason. Britain's aluminium industry used to be centred in the Scottish Highlands to take advantage of hydro power but it still ended up too expensive. I think the only two ways that industry can come back are a) subsidies for products of particular interest for defence purposes b) new, cheaper processes.

The next CCP five year plan talks a lot about carbon reduction and environmental remediation. It'll be interesting to see what they manage to do in a country where the government can do what it likes.

Well the simple fact is we have to drop the neoliberal BS.
Government intervention is necessary in these areas which are not a free market anyways (the PRC massively subsidizes its own nuclear, steel and aluminum industries. I am willing to spend billions for national security and the environment (nuclear is actually the cleanest because it uses the least land and materials per power produced).

Our governments are going to have to subsidize our own industries. Common modular reactor designs across a large block is a good idea. The waste is not as big a deal as made out to be, the amount is very small, but yes you would probably need an EU wide reprocessing and storage scheme. The US should reopen (yes it would be expensive but worth it) our reprocessing plants, and France already has one the EU and UK could use.

[Novus America]

Nuclear is the solution. Nuclear and hydroelectric. Actually despite poor pollution standards a reliance on energy imports means the PRC does not have an advantage in energy costs.

The PRC steel an aluminum are kept up vis huge government subsidies. It is their subsidies that give them the advantage. Which we can correct via corrective tariffs or subsidies of our own.
Because we can make our own aluminum and steel, we should just restrict or out right ban PRC aluminum and steel.

Rare earth metals is more tricky because refining them pollutes, and pollution controls are expensive, and we do not want to turn our own land into a post apocalyptic cyberpunk hell like the PRC does to parts of Inner Mongolia.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2015 ... e-on-earth

That being said we are actually reopening the Mountain Pass mine in California, once the biggest in the world. Of course it has to abide by strict environmental rules that drive up costs. Here again government subsidies and protectionism is required. Plus more investment in nuclear power.

I’m in favour of the nuclear and hydroelectric option, so long as uranium isn’t used and the less dirtier alternatives are used. Means less space taken up for cooling, less toxic waste.

For mining, it’s pretty common here, I’d say yes, so long as our government maintains strict guidelines on where to dig, what to use, and other environmentally-friendly measures. It’s quite possible the Philippines could slowly rise up the ranks for rare earth mining, hearing our President’s expanding the mining economy after lockdown to kickstart the economy. I really hope the business moguls don’t abuse the new digging spots, but knowing them, probably unlikely they’ll follow.

Unfortunately the current Philippines president would not build a rare earth mind because the PRC would oppose it.

And that is the issue, building one that does not involve turning the surrounding landscape into a post apocalyptic hell like the PRC did.

It can be done, but you need a lot of expensive equipment to clean the waste and prevent spills. Making hard to compete with the PRC absent government subsidies as they just dump all the untreated waste in a lake. And have tuned the surrounding area into a dystopia.

Given the issues with corruption I would be afraid the mine might pay the government officials in the Philippines to look the other way while it dumps toxic waste everywhere.

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

I’m in favour of the nuclear and hydroelectric option, so long as uranium isn’t used and the less dirtier alternatives are used. Means less space taken up for cooling, less toxic waste.

For mining, it’s pretty common here, I’d say yes, so long as our government maintains strict guidelines on where to dig, what to use, and other environmentally-friendly measures. It’s quite possible the Philippines could slowly rise up the ranks for rare earth mining, hearing our President’s expanding the mining economy after lockdown to kickstart the economy. I really hope the business moguls don’t abuse the new digging spots, but knowing them, probably unlikely they’ll follow.

Unfortunately the current Philippines president would not build a rare earth mind because the PRC would oppose it.

And that is the issue, building one that does not involve turning the surrounding landscape into a post apocalyptic hell like the PRC did.

It can be done, but you need a lot of expensive equipment to clean the waste and prevent spills. Making hard to compete with the PRC absent government subsidies as they just dump all the untreated waste in a lake. And have tuned the surrounding area into a dystopia.

Given the issues with corruption I would be afraid the mine might pay the government officials in the Philippines to look the other way while it dumps toxic waste everywhere.

That’s exactly what I’m worried about. Corruption runs rampant in here, Duterte’s barely made corruption go away despite his strong campaign promise on that, certain corporation just have the right amount of influence in the government to turn them against or for a certain thing. Frankly, I’d be very excited when the Manila mayors Vico Sotto and Isko Moreno become bigger players on the political scene. They’ve already got a lot of support, they’re pretty competent too.

Maybe we need to fix the system.

[Slavakino]

The future of China is for them to be turned into ash by a global force and reinstate the Republic of China. The CCP is dangerous and corrupt and must be stopped

[Hurdergaryp]

The future of China is for them to be turned into ash by a global force and reinstate the Republic of China. The CCP is dangerous and corrupt and must be stopped

By massacring hundreds of millions of people willfully? That is just monstrous.

[MC United]

Hopefully it will be a Communist-free future, after Xi and his henchmen reprise the roles of Hermann Goering et al. at Nuremberg. With due process of law, of course -- something they have NEVER granted to anyone in their power.

[Slavakino]

The future of China is for them to be turned into ash by a global force and reinstate the Republic of China. The CCP is dangerous and corrupt and must be stopped

By massacring hundreds of millions of people willfully? That is just monstrous.

Don't care. Its for the great or good

[Diahon]

The future of China is for them to be turned into ash by a global force and reinstate the Republic of China. The CCP is dangerous and corrupt and must be stopped

can we please fucking not do genocide
that would really be cool, thanks

[Slavakino]

The future of China is for them to be turned into ash by a global force and reinstate the Republic of China. The CCP is dangerous and corrupt and must be stopped

can we please fucking not do genocide
that would really be cool, thanks

Never said genocide. Your taking it out of context. I specifically mean a revolution or war supported by a global super power

[Diahon]

Nuclear is the solution. Nuclear and hydroelectric. Actually despite poor pollution standards a reliance on energy imports means the PRC does not have an advantage in energy costs.

The PRC steel an aluminum are kept up vis huge government subsidies. It is their subsidies that give them the advantage. Which we can correct via corrective tariffs or subsidies of our own.
Because we can make our own aluminum and steel, we should just restrict or out right ban PRC aluminum and steel.

Rare earth metals is more tricky because refining them pollutes, and pollution controls are expensive, and we do not want to turn our own land into a post apocalyptic cyberpunk hell like the PRC does to parts of Inner Mongolia.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2015 ... e-on-earth

That being said we are actually reopening the Mountain Pass mine in California, once the biggest in the world. Of course it has to abide by strict environmental rules that drive up costs. Here again government subsidies and protectionism is required. Plus more investment in nuclear power.

I’m in favour of the nuclear and hydroelectric option, so long as uranium isn’t used and the less dirtier alternatives are used. Means less space taken up for cooling, less toxic waste.

For mining, it’s pretty common here, I’d say yes, so long as our government maintains strict guidelines on where to dig, what to use, and other environmentally-friendly measures. It’s quite possible the Philippines could slowly rise up the ranks for rare earth mining, hearing our President’s expanding the mining economy after lockdown to kickstart the economy. I really hope the business moguls don’t abuse the new digging spots, but knowing them, probably unlikely they’ll follow.

waitwaitwait

we got substantial reserves of rare earths?

[Slavakino]

I’m in favour of the nuclear and hydroelectric option, so long as uranium isn’t used and the less dirtier alternatives are used. Means less space taken up for cooling, less toxic waste.

For mining, it’s pretty common here, I’d say yes, so long as our government maintains strict guidelines on where to dig, what to use, and other environmentally-friendly measures. It’s quite possible the Philippines could slowly rise up the ranks for rare earth mining, hearing our President’s expanding the mining economy after lockdown to kickstart the economy. I really hope the business moguls don’t abuse the new digging spots, but knowing them, probably unlikely they’ll follow.

waitwaitwait

we got substantial reserves of rare earths?

Nuclear waste in 2020's isn't a problem. We don't need thorium just yet. Nuclear waste can be recycled with about 95-97% and the rest can be burned in a Fast Reactor. Also, new reactors have an efficiency of 80-90%

[Heloin]

can we please fucking not do genocide
that would really be cool, thanks

Never said genocide. Your taking it out of context. I specifically mean a revolution or war supported by a global super power

"Turned into ash" is very common wording used by people advocating murdering thousands if not millions. If it's true that others are taking what you said out of context then you should have written the context better.

[Slavakino]

Never said genocide. Your taking it out of context. I specifically mean a revolution or war supported by a global super power

"Turned into ash" is very common wording used by people advocating murdering thousands if not millions. If it's true that others are taking what you said out of context then you should have written the context better.

I doubt it. Unless you are only thinking of the holocaust then sure I guess

[Heloin]

"Turned into ash" is very common wording used by people advocating murdering thousands if not millions. If it's true that others are taking what you said out of context then you should have written the context better.

I doubt it. Unless you are only thinking of the holocaust then sure I guess

You can doubt it all you want. I'm just telling you flatly, at best your choice of words were poor.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

I’m in favour of the nuclear and hydroelectric option, so long as uranium isn’t used and the less dirtier alternatives are used. Means less space taken up for cooling, less toxic waste.

For mining, it’s pretty common here, I’d say yes, so long as our government maintains strict guidelines on where to dig, what to use, and other environmentally-friendly measures. It’s quite possible the Philippines could slowly rise up the ranks for rare earth mining, hearing our President’s expanding the mining economy after lockdown to kickstart the economy. I really hope the business moguls don’t abuse the new digging spots, but knowing them, probably unlikely they’ll follow.

waitwaitwait

we got substantial reserves of rare earths?

It looks like there are some rare earth permanent magnet. Southeast Asia Malaysia has rare earth

[Ceranapis]

The CCP will continue to rule indefinitely
The CCP's days are numbered

The second one is true by definition- no empire lasts forever. That being said, I personally would not bet any money on the CCP collapsing anytime soon. The country has a lot of stressors, from COVID to Hong Kong to an aging population that's paying for the one child policy. That said, without additional steps, I don't see how any of those things lead to the to collapse of the regime. There are no elections that can throw out the government from mishandling any of these things. Aging people are not revolutionaries. China will have another Tiananmen before they let Hong Kong collapse the authority of the CCP, no matter what the rest of the world thinks of their actions. China's lying about their COVID numbers, but the rest of the world is having plenty of trouble with this crisis too, and the idea that the Chinese people think that the government's handling of the virus was so bad as to cause revolution is laughable.

China has lots of problems, but any discussion of collapse is wishful thinking, not sound analysis.

---

waitwaitwait

we got substantial reserves of rare earths?

Rare earths aren't actually that rare, deposits are found throughout the world. They're just very environmentally and economically costly to extract, and most of the world is willing to let the Chinese destroy their environment and pump billions in mining subsidies to do the work for them.

edit: fixed typo

[Conservative Republic Of Huang]

The CCP will continue to rule indefinitely
The CCP's days are numbered

The second one is true by definition- no empire lasts forever. That being said, I personally would not bet any money on the CCP collapsing anytime soon. The country has a lot of stressors, from COVID to Hong Kong to an aging population that's paying for the one child policy. That said, without additional steps, I don't see how any of those things lead to the to collapse of the regime. There are no elections that can throw out the government from mishandling any of these things. Aging people are not revolutionaries. China will have another Tiananmen before they let Hong Kong collapse the authority of the CCP, no matter what the rest of the world thinks of their actions. China's lying about their COVID numbers, but the rest of the world is having plenty of trouble with this crisis too, and the idea that the Chinese people think that the government's handling of the virus was so bad as to cause revolution is laughable.

China has lots of problems, but any discussion of collapse is wishful thinking, not sound analysis.

---

waitwaitwait

we got substantial reserves of rare earths?

Rare earths aren't actually that rare, deposits are found throughout the world. They're just very environmentally and economically costly to extract, and most of the world is willing to let the Chinese destroy their environment and pump billions in mining subsidies to do the work for them.

edit: fixed typo

A far more likely scenario is gradual political liberalization from within the party. Political reformists were actually gaining power before 6/4, and some reforms did take place, which were actually what precipitated the protests, but the increasing scale of the protests forced Deng Xiaoping's hand, and he caved to the hardliners, so the reformists were almost all purged.

[Tuthina]

The second one is true by definition- no empire lasts forever. That being said, I personally would not bet any money on the CCP collapsing anytime soon. The country has a lot of stressors, from COVID to Hong Kong to an aging population that's paying for the one child policy. That said, without additional steps, I don't see how any of those things lead to the to collapse of the regime. There are no elections that can throw out the government from mishandling any of these things. Aging people are not revolutionaries. China will have another Tiananmen before they let Hong Kong collapse the authority of the CCP, no matter what the rest of the world thinks of their actions. China's lying about their COVID numbers, but the rest of the world is having plenty of trouble with this crisis too, and the idea that the Chinese people think that the government's handling of the virus was so bad as to cause revolution is laughable.

China has lots of problems, but any discussion of collapse is wishful thinking, not sound analysis.

---

Rare earths aren't actually that rare, deposits are found throughout the world. They're just very environmentally and economically costly to extract, and most of the world is willing to let the Chinese destroy their environment and pump billions in mining subsidies to do the work for them.

edit: fixed typo

A far more likely scenario is gradual political liberalization from within the party. Political reformists were actually gaining power before 6/4, and some reforms did take place, which were actually what precipitated the protests, but the increasing scale of the protests forced Deng Xiaoping's hand, and he caved to the hardliners, so the reformists were almost all purged.

And the ascension of Xi Jinping has more or less put an end to the (relatively) more moderate approach of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. Even if Xi Jinping's approach would be overturned in the near future, it seems likely that it would just be a repeat of history where another hardliner came to power and undo it.

[Conservative Republic Of Huang]

A far more likely scenario is gradual political liberalization from within the party. Political reformists were actually gaining power before 6/4, and some reforms did take place, which were actually what precipitated the protests, but the increasing scale of the protests forced Deng Xiaoping's hand, and he caved to the hardliners, so the reformists were almost all purged.

And the ascension of Xi Jinping has more or less put an end to the (relatively) more moderate approach of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. Even if Xi Jinping's approach would be overturned in the near future, it seems likely that it would just be a repeat of history where another hardliner came to power and undo it.

Given sufficient political reforms, it's unlikely one could rise to become paramount leader, since there would be protests and popular backlash. Political reforms would embolden democratic activists and reduce political apathy, much as Deng Xiaoping's did, creating the Tiananmen protests.

[Tuthina]

And the ascension of Xi Jinping has more or less put an end to the (relatively) more moderate approach of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. Even if Xi Jinping's approach would be overturned in the near future, it seems likely that it would just be a repeat of history where another hardliner came to power and undo it.

Given sufficient political reforms, it's unlikely one could rise to become paramount leader, since there would be protests and popular backlash. Political reforms would embolden democratic activists and reduce political apathy, much as Deng Xiaoping's did, creating the Tiananmen protests.

I wouldn't say that the protests in 1989 and the subsequent suppression is exactly conducive to further political reforms.