The Future of China

[Albrenia]

I would be far more comfortable selling Aussie meat to places which aren't dictatorial hellholes anyway. The US and UK have long proven to be our steadfast allies anyway, despite Trump's small blip of bitching at us occasionally.

[Novus America]

Japan has no capability to intervene because it is limited by the JSDF being a defence-only military, South Korea may be reluctant because of North Korea, the Philippines is leaning way too close to China (though most locals would prefer otherwise), the rest of ASEAN may be up to the task, but they could back down on speaking out if China has something to offer (which they usually do).

Japan is basically not limited at this point, since the LDP keeps loosening the interpretation of Article 12. They've even "defending" themselves with a military base in Djibouti and deployed troops to Iraq.

Technically article 9 but yes.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Ja ... egislation
Basically the constraints on Japanese involvement in conflicts have been greatly reduced, plus the US bases mean if the US gets into a conflict with the PRC, Japanese will be involved.

Either the PRC does not attack US bases in Japan, giving the US a huge advantage or it does, bringing Japan in even under strict self defense, but Japan considers fighting with allies legitimate self defense anyways.

[Australian rePublic]

I would be far more comfortable selling Aussie meat to places which aren't dictatorial hellholes anyway. The US and UK have long proven to be our steadfast allies anyway, despite Trump's small blip of bitching at us occasionally.

We're talking about Donald Trump. I'd be more concerned if he didn't bitch at us. I don't know what he said, but I'd assume it was Donald Trumpesque (seriously, what did he say?)

[Albrenia]

I would be far more comfortable selling Aussie meat to places which aren't dictatorial hellholes anyway. The US and UK have long proven to be our steadfast allies anyway, despite Trump's small blip of bitching at us occasionally.

We're talking about Donald Trump. I'd be more concerned if he didn't bitch at us. I don't know what he said, but I'd assume it was Donald Trumpesque (seriously, what did he say?)

Way back after he just got elected he tried to wiggle out of a deal that Obama made until our PM reminded him he can't do that without us repaying the favour.

I don't remember specifics beyond that, but I'm fairly sure he's just verbally backhanded us a few times since over environmental policies and trade agreements. Nothing too serious considering, as you say, this is Trump and he's a dick to everyone.

[Australian rePublic]

We're talking about Donald Trump. I'd be more concerned if he didn't bitch at us. I don't know what he said, but I'd assume it was Donald Trumpesque (seriously, what did he say?)

Way back after he just got elected he tried to wiggle out of a deal that Obama made until our PM reminded him he can't do that without us repaying the favour.

I don't remember specifics beyond that, but I'm fairly sure he's just verbally backhanded us a few times since over environmental policies and trade agreements. Nothing too serious considering, as you say, this is Trump and he's a dick to everyone.

Oh yea. That's right!

[Lura]

We absolutely should recognize both the ROC and the PRC (which would really throw the PRC for a loop), bring back the Taiwan Defense Command.

I'd say that would be a good thing to do, but isn't China's policy to completely cut trade with every country that recognises Taiwan? That is why only 17 UN members recognise Taiwan, and they only do it because they don't rely on Chinese trade and Taiwan was able to bribe them more. Unfortunately, most countries, including the United States, are too dependent on trade with China to consider it, hence why there is so much unofficial recognition of Taiwan.

My hope when it comes to China is that the pandemic has made companies weary of manufacturing in China, and they will all move away from them. As a result, some countries become less dependent on China, ideally to a point when they no longer have to care about China and can recognise Taiwan instead. The ideal end goal of this would be to isolate China until they can no longer prove themselves worthy of support from the Chinese people and the regime collapses.

Ironically, if the situation above actually happened, we are finally at the point in time where Taiwan doesn't want to become sole government of China anymore and they may just leave the mainland to its own devices.

[Accelerationist Poland-Lithuania]

The people of China support the CCP just like the people of the West support ZOG. Vandalising memorials and posters related to Hong Kong, Tibet and the Uighurs is a well-known pastime of many Chinese tourists in foreign countries. People are lemmings and will support whoever feeds and clothes them. I don't think we'll see the end of the CCP in my lifetime or my children's lifetime.

[Saxon Anglia]

I hope that the West will economicly strangle China into collapsing back into its 3rd world status until they are forced to change regime. But I won't hold my breath.

[Novus America]

We absolutely should recognize both the ROC and the PRC (which would really throw the PRC for a loop), bring back the Taiwan Defense Command.

I'd say that would be a good thing to do, but isn't China's policy to completely cut trade with every country that recognises Taiwan? That is why only 17 UN members recognise Taiwan, and they only do it because they don't rely on Chinese trade and Taiwan was able to bribe them more. Unfortunately, most countries, including the United States, are too dependent on trade with China to consider it, hence why there is so much unofficial recognition of Taiwan.

My hope when it comes to China is that the pandemic has made companies weary of manufacturing in China, and they will all move away from them. As a result, some countries become less dependent on China, ideally to a point when they no longer have to care about China and can recognise Taiwan instead. The ideal end goal of this would be to isolate China until they can no longer prove themselves worthy of support from the Chinese people and the regime collapses.

Ironically, if the situation above actually happened, we are finally at the point in time where Taiwan doesn't want to become sole government of China anymore and they may just leave the mainland to its own devices.

Well that is the point. The PRC relies more on trade with us then we do with them. Their threat is an empty one.

The could threaten to cut off relations with small countries over it but not us.
They cannot afford to.

Actually they still try trade and other relations with those recognizing the ROC to try to lure them into switching to the PRC. Their whole “One China Policy” is a gigantic bluff.
If we simply call them out on it, recognize both the whole “One China Policy“ will completely implode. They cannot afford to cut off relations with us, and we would not be cutting relations off with them by recognizing both.

It is a gigantic weakness we can exploit.

[Phoenicaea]

pardon, confrontation is not warfare. it is a mere fact. if you suppose a regime ha got too much of influence, reduce selling your debt to them.

[Novus America]

pardon, confrontation is not warfare. it is a mere fact. if you suppose a regime ha got too much of influence, reduce selling your debt to them.

Actually the debt thing is overstated. That is not the issue.
There is a saying “if you owe the bank 100,000 you have a problem, if you owe the bank 1,000,000 the bank has a problem”.

They have no way to collect, if things got bad we could just selectively default on the debt they own.

The bigger problem is the trade imbalance.

[Vistulange]

The people of China support the CCP just like the people of the West support ZOG. Vandalising memorials and posters related to Hong Kong, Tibet and the Uighurs is a well-known pastime of many Chinese tourists in foreign countries. People are lemmings and will support whoever feeds and clothes them. I don't think we'll see the end of the CCP in my lifetime or my children's lifetime.

Did you unironically use "ZOG"?

[Hurdergaryp]

The people of China support the CCP just like the people of the West support ZOG. Vandalising memorials and posters related to Hong Kong, Tibet and the Uighurs is a well-known pastime of many Chinese tourists in foreign countries. People are lemmings and will support whoever feeds and clothes them. I don't think we'll see the end of the CCP in my lifetime or my children's lifetime.

Did you unironically use "ZOG"?

That newcomer sounds like someone who thinks the wrong alliance won the Second World War.

[Australian rePublic]

I hope that the West will economicly strangle China into collapsing back into its 3rd world status until they are forced to change regime. But I won't hold my breath.

Doubt it, sadly. At least from Australia's perspective. China is angry with us for leading an international investigation into the cause of the virus, and cutting off trade because of it. Our buisinesses are getting effed because of it, and our trade minister is really upset. Though Scomo, the prime minister, is sticking to his guns and failing to cave into their crap, even a billonaire mining giant (who's worried that China will stop buying our raw resources) that when he wants buisiness advice, he'll speak to business people, and when he wants foreign relations advice, he'll speak to foreign relations people. Could go either way really. Doesn't help that China is our biggest trading partner, and they know it. Though, Scomo has handled the entire situation compitently, and I trust the same applies for the trade war. The sooner we diversify away from China, the better. I don't understand why Australia hasn't cut off coal and iron exports to China. Without Australian iron ore, China has no steal, and without Australian coal, they would rely on that brown coal shit, which would pollution worse and piss the people off. We could grab China by the balls if we did that, and it's the reason why they haven't threatened to stop buying our coal and iron. China would need to find someone else to buy from (good luck with that given that the rest of the world is pissed with China, many countries don't want to mine coal, and wouldn't have the resourses if they did). Many billionares would be pissed (because ensuring that billionares make money is more important than national security) and mom and pop shate holders would be piesed (understanable), but it's only temporary till we find decent trade partners, which shouldn't be too hard

[Novus America]

I hope that the West will economicly strangle China into collapsing back into its 3rd world status until they are forced to change regime. But I won't hold my breath.

Doubt it, sadly. At least from Australia's perspective. China is angry with us for leading an international investigation into the cause of the virus, and cutting off trade because of it. Our buisinesses are getting effed because of it, and our trade minister is really upset. Though Scomo, the prime minister, is sticking to his guns and failing to cave into their crap, even a billonaire mining giant (who's worried that China will stop buying our raw resources) that when he wants buisiness advice, he'll speak to business people, and when he wants foreign relations advice, he'll speak to foreign relations people. Could go either way really. Doesn't help that China is our biggest trading partner, and they know it. Though, Scomo has handled the entire situation compitently, and I trust the same applies for the trade war. The sooner we diversify away from China, the better. I don't understand why Australia hasn't cut off coal and iron exports to China. Without Australian iron ore, China has no steal, and without Australian coal, they would rely on that brown coal shit, which would pollution worse and piss the people off. We could grab China by the balls if we did that, and it's the reason why they haven't threatened to stop buying our coal and iron. China would need to find someone else to buy from (good luck with that given that the rest of the world is pissed with China, many countries don't want to mine coal, and wouldn't have the resourses if they did). Many billionares would be pissed (because ensuring that billionares make money is more important than national security) and mom and pop shate holders would be piesed (understanable), but it's only temporary till we find decent trade partners, which shouldn't be too hard

Japan and Taiwan are trying to reduce their dependence on the PRC. They would probably gladly buy it for their own steel industries.

[Tuthina]

Doubt it, sadly. At least from Australia's perspective. China is angry with us for leading an international investigation into the cause of the virus, and cutting off trade because of it. Our buisinesses are getting effed because of it, and our trade minister is really upset. Though Scomo, the prime minister, is sticking to his guns and failing to cave into their crap, even a billonaire mining giant (who's worried that China will stop buying our raw resources) that when he wants buisiness advice, he'll speak to business people, and when he wants foreign relations advice, he'll speak to foreign relations people. Could go either way really. Doesn't help that China is our biggest trading partner, and they know it. Though, Scomo has handled the entire situation compitently, and I trust the same applies for the trade war. The sooner we diversify away from China, the better. I don't understand why Australia hasn't cut off coal and iron exports to China. Without Australian iron ore, China has no steal, and without Australian coal, they would rely on that brown coal shit, which would pollution worse and piss the people off. We could grab China by the balls if we did that, and it's the reason why they haven't threatened to stop buying our coal and iron. China would need to find someone else to buy from (good luck with that given that the rest of the world is pissed with China, many countries don't want to mine coal, and wouldn't have the resourses if they did). Many billionares would be pissed (because ensuring that billionares make money is more important than national security) and mom and pop shate holders would be piesed (understanable), but it's only temporary till we find decent trade partners, which shouldn't be too hard

Japan and Taiwan are trying to reduce their dependence on the PRC. They would probably gladly buy it for their own steel industries.

Like many things about reducing dependence on PRC, though, the issue is that the steel production of Japan and ROC can almost be considered a rounding error compared with that of PRC. That is why PRC has been using its huge market as a means to get other countries in line with mostly successful results. While theoretically, a world united against PRC would be able to bring it to its knees, such unity is very hard, if not impossibly so to achieve. Even if the world is rather pissed at PRC for the while pandemic thing, how much of it can translate to real action is difficult to say. Personally, I'm rather pessimistic about it.

[Bear Stearns]

I would be far more comfortable selling Aussie meat to places which aren't dictatorial hellholes anyway. The US and UK have long proven to be our steadfast allies anyway, despite Trump's small blip of bitching at us occasionally.

It's sad that China is basically trying to buy one of your major political parties.

[Australian rePublic]

Japan and Taiwan are trying to reduce their dependence on the PRC. They would probably gladly buy it for their own steel industries.

Like many things about reducing dependence on PRC, though, the issue is that the steel production of Japan and ROC can almost be considered a rounding error compared with that of PRC. That is why PRC has been using its huge market as a means to get other countries in line with mostly successful results. While theoretically, a world united against PRC would be able to bring it to its knees, such unity is very hard, if not impossibly so to achieve. Even if the world is rather pissed at PRC for the while pandemic thing, how much of it can translate to real action is difficult to say. Personally, I'm rather pessimistic about it.

I don't know about that. If China keeps acting the way they do now towards Australia, sooner or later, they'll shoot themselves in the foot. Maybe it'll happen to other countries as well. I suspect that Australia is already on the verge of being so sick of China's bullshit, that we're making a permanent transition away from them

[Tuthina]

Like many things about reducing dependence on PRC, though, the issue is that the steel production of Japan and ROC can almost be considered a rounding error compared with that of PRC. That is why PRC has been using its huge market as a means to get other countries in line with mostly successful results. While theoretically, a world united against PRC would be able to bring it to its knees, such unity is very hard, if not impossibly so to achieve. Even if the world is rather pissed at PRC for the while pandemic thing, how much of it can translate to real action is difficult to say. Personally, I'm rather pessimistic about it.

I don't know about that. If China keeps acting the way they do now towards Australia, sooner or later, they'll shoot themselves in the foot. Maybe it'll happen to other countries as well. I suspect that Australia is already on the verge of being so sick of China's bullshit, that we're making a permanent transition away from them

Well, it's one of those things I would be glad to be proven wrong. The question, though, is that whether it would be too late to act against PRC when countries finally muster up the will to stand against it, considering the myriad of ways PRC use to spread its influence in the rest of the world.

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

Doubt it, sadly. At least from Australia's perspective. China is angry with us for leading an international investigation into the cause of the virus, and cutting off trade because of it. Our buisinesses are getting effed because of it, and our trade minister is really upset. Though Scomo, the prime minister, is sticking to his guns and failing to cave into their crap, even a billonaire mining giant (who's worried that China will stop buying our raw resources) that when he wants buisiness advice, he'll speak to business people, and when he wants foreign relations advice, he'll speak to foreign relations people. Could go either way really. Doesn't help that China is our biggest trading partner, and they know it. Though, Scomo has handled the entire situation compitently, and I trust the same applies for the trade war. The sooner we diversify away from China, the better. I don't understand why Australia hasn't cut off coal and iron exports to China. Without Australian iron ore, China has no steal, and without Australian coal, they would rely on that brown coal shit, which would pollution worse and piss the people off. We could grab China by the balls if we did that, and it's the reason why they haven't threatened to stop buying our coal and iron. China would need to find someone else to buy from (good luck with that given that the rest of the world is pissed with China, many countries don't want to mine coal, and wouldn't have the resourses if they did). Many billionares would be pissed (because ensuring that billionares make money is more important than national security) and mom and pop shate holders would be piesed (understanable), but it's only temporary till we find decent trade partners, which shouldn't be too hard

Japan and Taiwan are trying to reduce their dependence on the PRC. They would probably gladly buy it for their own steel industries.

I for one, would love if my country decided to elect someone in 2022 that knew how to maneuver around the Chinese, when to say no and when to accept and be careful, because Duterte’s pretty much letting China off scot-free.

Also, I wait for the day Taiwan would be considered independent. Taiwan is pretty much everything but under the PRC. They are developing separate customs, use a separate writing system, have their own government and passport, etc. The day the world acknowledges Taiwan as separate (which certainly seems to be happening with calls crom a few nations to put Taiwan in the WHO) would be a big middle finger to Beijing.

[Wizlandia]

My Prediction: CCP will rule for a long time, but will slowly begin to expand civil liberties (and scale down the Uighur camps) after Xi retires. End up with a Singapore-PAP situation in 30ish years.

[Mtwara]

I'm not sure that stopping trade or antagonising China is a good idea. China is like Russia or the Middle East - it's a different culture and history, and interpretation of its behaviour and intention by Westerners who aren't familiar (not that I am) with it can put their foot in their mouths.

The CCP isn't some big homogenous entity, it has factions and individual opinions, although a lot of people are stuck masking them and trying to second-guess their higher-ups. Xi is probably one bad recession away from losing a lot of power - he will go, the party will stay. A lot of Chinese know what is happening in Hong Kong and to the Uighurs is wrong but they won't complain as long as their QoL improves, although the news has been denying and exaggerating for so long on second thoughts I'm not so sure. What I can say is a lot of businesspeople and factory owners are quietly unhappy - more socialism isn't the way forward for China, and in some respects China's success is down to history and geography instead of wise and great leadership, which keeps them going even when mismanagement and corruption pull them down.

A lot of developed China is at a stage where they can (if they want to) manufacture quality tools and good to support a domestic market. We in the West have potential to sell goods and services to China, too, but if we cut ties then we lose a big, cheap manufacturing base, and they have a great excuse to kick start more domestic industry. I can only speak for the UK but perhaps if we did more trade with NICs and developing countries in general, the gov could have had more cash to stockpile the right PPE.

What I think we should do, however, is move important manufacturing supply chains back to the West. In this day and age there's no reason why we can't make a number of (mechanical at least not sure about electronics) sprockets and widgets in dark factories, in fact robots are at a point where a number of different sprockets and widgets could probably be made on the same production line.

[Novus America]

I'm not sure that stopping trade or antagonising China is a good idea. China is like Russia or the Middle East - it's a different culture and history, and interpretation of its behaviour and intention by Westerners who aren't familiar (not that I am) with it can put their foot in their mouths.

The CCP isn't some big homogenous entity, it has factions and individual opinions, although a lot of people are stuck masking them and trying to second-guess their higher-ups. Xi is probably one bad recession away from losing a lot of power - he will go, the party will stay. A lot of Chinese know what is happening in Hong Kong and to the Uighurs is wrong but they won't complain as long as their QoL improves, although the news has been denying and exaggerating for so long on second thoughts I'm not so sure. What I can say is a lot of businesspeople and factory owners are quietly unhappy - more socialism isn't the way forward for China, and in some respects China's success is down to history and geography instead of wise and great leadership, which keeps them going even when mismanagement and corruption pull them down.

A lot of developed China is at a stage where they can (if they want to) manufacture quality tools and good to support a domestic market. We in the West have potential to sell goods and services to China, too, but if we cut ties then we lose a big, cheap manufacturing base, and they have a great excuse to kick start more domestic industry. I can only speak for the UK but perhaps if we did more trade with NICs and developing countries in general, the gov could have had more cash to stockpile the right PPE.

What I think we should do, however, is move important manufacturing supply chains back to the West. In this day and age there's no reason why we can't make a number of (mechanical at least not sure about electronics) sprockets and widgets in dark factories, in fact robots are at a point where a number of different sprockets and widgets could probably be made on the same production line.

Two things to note, the PRC is not the cheapest manufacturing base and is too unreliable.
If the US needs a cheap manufacturing base we always have Mexico. Also the focus on cheap manufacturing over productivity undermines our ability to bring our supply chains back, in most cases cheap labor is good for the short term profits of multinational megacorps but bad for society as a whole.

But sure we can and should move manufacturing back, especially steel and aluminum which can be heavily automated. They do not need lots of cheap labor. Electronics are a bit more complicated because assembly requires a lot of labor, robots generally lack the fine control to assemble them, but we can pay more upfront in sticker prices and/or use Mexico and such.

There were other choices with cheap labor who are less problematic. Who are not military and political adversaries. So even in places we have a hard time avoiding cheap labor (and again cheap labor is not really a virtue) we have alternatives to the PRC.

[Mtwara]

I'm not sure that stopping trade or antagonising China is a good idea. China is like Russia or the Middle East - it's a different culture and history, and interpretation of its behaviour and intention by Westerners who aren't familiar (not that I am) with it can put their foot in their mouths.

The CCP isn't some big homogenous entity, it has factions and individual opinions, although a lot of people are stuck masking them and trying to second-guess their higher-ups. Xi is probably one bad recession away from losing a lot of power - he will go, the party will stay. A lot of Chinese know what is happening in Hong Kong and to the Uighurs is wrong but they won't complain as long as their QoL improves, although the news has been denying and exaggerating for so long on second thoughts I'm not so sure. What I can say is a lot of businesspeople and factory owners are quietly unhappy - more socialism isn't the way forward for China, and in some respects China's success is down to history and geography instead of wise and great leadership, which keeps them going even when mismanagement and corruption pull them down.

A lot of developed China is at a stage where they can (if they want to) manufacture quality tools and good to support a domestic market. We in the West have potential to sell goods and services to China, too, but if we cut ties then we lose a big, cheap manufacturing base, and they have a great excuse to kick start more domestic industry. I can only speak for the UK but perhaps if we did more trade with NICs and developing countries in general, the gov could have had more cash to stockpile the right PPE.

What I think we should do, however, is move important manufacturing supply chains back to the West. In this day and age there's no reason why we can't make a number of (mechanical at least not sure about electronics) sprockets and widgets in dark factories, in fact robots are at a point where a number of different sprockets and widgets could probably be made on the same production line.

Two things to note, the PRC is not the cheapest manufacturing base and is too unreliable.
If the US needs a cheap manufacturing base we always have Mexico. Also the focus on cheap manufacturing over productivity undermines our ability to bring our supply chains back, in most cases cheap labor is good for the short term profits of multinational megacorps but bad for society as a whole.

But sure we can and should move manufacturing back, especially steel and aluminum which can be heavily automated. They do not need lots of cheap labor. Electronics are a bit more complicated because assembly requires a lot of labor, robots generally lack the fine control to assemble them, but we can pay more upfront in sticker prices and/or use Mexico and such.

There were other choices with cheap labor who are less problematic. Who are not military and political adversaries. So even in places we have a hard time avoiding cheap labor (and again cheap labor is not really a virtue) we have alternatives to the PRC.

I think you have a good point - there are alternatives. For instance I would bet on East Africa (Kenya/Tanzania) becoming a low-skill manufacturing hub when I'm middle-aged, using inland resources from Zambia and Uganda.

The question for me then is - if there are other, better alternatives to China, then why did we, and do we continue, to use it?

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Japan and Taiwan are trying to reduce their dependence on the PRC. They would probably gladly buy it for their own steel industries.

Like many things about reducing dependence on PRC, though, the issue is that the steel production of Japan and ROC can almost be considered a rounding error compared with that of PRC.

That's valid. Furthermore, 61% of Japan's coal imports are already filled by Australia. For Korea it's 33%.

The Greens are a pretty strong third party in Australia. If the government wants to buy their assent to every other bill for a several years, massively scaling back coal mining would buy that. It's not such a strong lever that China has after all.

That is why PRC has been using its huge market as a means to get other countries in line with mostly successful results.

Great point. With all the attention on the US's trade deficit, it's often overlooked that China is also a huge and growing market. The US would lose a lot of exports if they build walls.

Aircraft for instance. China is set to buy a lot of them in years to come. But they can easily buy Airbus instead.

While theoretically, a world united against PRC would be able to bring it to its knees, such unity is very hard, if not impossibly so to achieve. Even if the world is rather pissed at PRC for the while pandemic thing, how much of it can translate to real action is difficult to say. Personally, I'm rather pessimistic about it.

Maybe reparations aren't such a silly idea after all. $4 million per life or so, quite doable for an economy with high rate of growth. The real sweetener would be it's aid on the sly to the countries that aren't rich.