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The Future of China

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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The Future of China

The CCP will continue to rule indefinitely
234
38%
The CCP's days are numbered
328
53%
Other (Explain)
52
8%
 
Total votes : 614

User avatar
Bombadil
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 17480
Founded: Oct 13, 2011
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Bombadil » Tue May 12, 2020 2:45 am

Major-Tom wrote:
Tenzinyaz wrote:Taiwan is in a dangerous condition of being invaded and the 2020 elections were proof of Taiwan's independence. The DPP Of Taiwan is the key for independence.


Taiwan isn't going to be invaded. Taiwan's current administration is savvy and admirable in a great deal of ways, but even they understand that the threat is a stranglehold of Chinese influence in the region (thereby undermining their sovereignty), not a full-scale invasion anytime soon. Particularly because the PRC understands the implications of fully invading any country.

It's precisely why they prefer a "softer" form of expanding their influence, via buying out developing countries and engaging in intellectual copyright, malicious trade bargaining and cyber-warfare. Softer, comparable to warfare, really.


The world seems to be full of people denying the existence of black swans. Truth is that Xi Jinping has personally stated that reunification is inevitable, and by force if necessary. So things like this will soon force his hand..

New Zealand’s foreign minister has said the country has to stand up for itself after China warned its call for Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Organization (WHO) could damage bilateral ties.

Taiwan, with the strong support of the United States, has stepped up its lobbying to be allowed to take part as an observer at next week’s World Health Assembly (WHA), the WHO’s decision-making body – a move that has angered China.

Taiwan is excluded from the WHO due to the objections of China, which views the island as one of its provinces.

Senior ministers in New Zealand said last week Taiwan should be allowed to join the WHO as an observer given its success in limiting the spread of the novel coronavirus, drawing China’s ire which asked the Pacific country to “stop making wrong statements”.

“We have got to stand up for ourselves,” Winston Peters, New Zealand’s foreign minister, said at a news conference when asked about China’s response to New Zealand’s position on Taiwan. “And true friendship is based on equality. It’s based on the ability in this friendship to nevertheless disagree.”

Peters said he did not think the issue would harm diplomatic ties with China, which is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner.

Taiwan has reported only 440 coronavirus cases and seven related deaths, relatively low figures attributed to early and effective disease prevention and control work.

Peters praised Taiwan’s response to Covid-19 and said there was a lot for other countries to learn from. “New Zealand’s position on Taiwan is about its tremendous success against Covid-19,” Peters said.

When asked about China’s response later in the day, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said New Zealand’s position on Taiwan was only related to its health response to Covid-19. “We have always taken a ‘One China’ policy, and that continues to be the case,” Ardern said.

Ties between neighbouring Australia and China have frayed in recent months after Canberra called for an international investigation into the origins and spread of the coronavirus that was first reported in the Chinese city of Wuhan late last year.

China has dismissed such a probe as groundless, saying the country has been open and transparent about the outbreak.
Eldest, that's what I am...Tom remembers the first raindrop and the first acorn...he knew the dark under the stars when it was fearless — before the Dark Lord came from Outside..

十年

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Infected Mushroom
Post Czar
 
Posts: 38837
Founded: Apr 15, 2014
Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Infected Mushroom » Tue May 12, 2020 2:54 am

Vistulange wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
It just depends on the loyalty of the citizens and the economic conditions of the day

In a very crude manner of speaking, yes, but "loyalty of citizens" depends on so many factors and is split into so many variables that as a categorical term, it's useless. Scholars barely, if ever, use the term, to my knowledge - and I've read a fair bit of the literature on democratisation and authoritarian regimes.

Economic conditions, sure. For instance, in their 1997 article "Modernization: Theories and facts", Przeworski and Limongi put forth a specific criterion for the survival of authoritarian regimes: Per capita GDP of $6,055. Regimes that were above this threshold [practically] never collapse, while regimes below this threshold have varying degrees of survival and continuity. There are counter-arguments to this, and I believe Przeworski and Limongi themselves elaborate further on this theory in future articles, but it's just one example of how "economic situation" can be interpreted and operationalised in various different ways.


I see...

User avatar
Albrenia
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 16619
Founded: Aug 18, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby Albrenia » Tue May 12, 2020 3:55 am

Bombadil wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
Taiwan isn't going to be invaded. Taiwan's current administration is savvy and admirable in a great deal of ways, but even they understand that the threat is a stranglehold of Chinese influence in the region (thereby undermining their sovereignty), not a full-scale invasion anytime soon. Particularly because the PRC understands the implications of fully invading any country.

It's precisely why they prefer a "softer" form of expanding their influence, via buying out developing countries and engaging in intellectual copyright, malicious trade bargaining and cyber-warfare. Softer, comparable to warfare, really.


The world seems to be full of people denying the existence of black swans. Truth is that Xi Jinping has personally stated that reunification is inevitable, and by force if necessary. So things like this will soon force his hand..

New Zealand’s foreign minister has said the country has to stand up for itself after China warned its call for Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Organization (WHO) could damage bilateral ties.

Taiwan, with the strong support of the United States, has stepped up its lobbying to be allowed to take part as an observer at next week’s World Health Assembly (WHA), the WHO’s decision-making body – a move that has angered China.

Taiwan is excluded from the WHO due to the objections of China, which views the island as one of its provinces.

Senior ministers in New Zealand said last week Taiwan should be allowed to join the WHO as an observer given its success in limiting the spread of the novel coronavirus, drawing China’s ire which asked the Pacific country to “stop making wrong statements”.

“We have got to stand up for ourselves,” Winston Peters, New Zealand’s foreign minister, said at a news conference when asked about China’s response to New Zealand’s position on Taiwan. “And true friendship is based on equality. It’s based on the ability in this friendship to nevertheless disagree.”

Peters said he did not think the issue would harm diplomatic ties with China, which is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner.

Taiwan has reported only 440 coronavirus cases and seven related deaths, relatively low figures attributed to early and effective disease prevention and control work.

Peters praised Taiwan’s response to Covid-19 and said there was a lot for other countries to learn from. “New Zealand’s position on Taiwan is about its tremendous success against Covid-19,” Peters said.

When asked about China’s response later in the day, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said New Zealand’s position on Taiwan was only related to its health response to Covid-19. “We have always taken a ‘One China’ policy, and that continues to be the case,” Ardern said.

Ties between neighbouring Australia and China have frayed in recent months after Canberra called for an international investigation into the origins and spread of the coronavirus that was first reported in the Chinese city of Wuhan late last year.

China has dismissed such a probe as groundless, saying the country has been open and transparent about the outbreak.


Rather ballsy of NZ, and although I can't speak to the wisdom of pushing for Taiwan to be included in the WHA, I do feel it is the 'right' thing to do... let's just hope it doesn't go badly.

User avatar
New Bremerton
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1344
Founded: Jul 20, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby New Bremerton » Tue May 12, 2020 4:19 am

Albrenia wrote:
Bombadil wrote:
The world seems to be full of people denying the existence of black swans. Truth is that Xi Jinping has personally stated that reunification is inevitable, and by force if necessary. So things like this will soon force his hand..

New Zealand’s foreign minister has said the country has to stand up for itself after China warned its call for Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Organization (WHO) could damage bilateral ties.

Taiwan, with the strong support of the United States, has stepped up its lobbying to be allowed to take part as an observer at next week’s World Health Assembly (WHA), the WHO’s decision-making body – a move that has angered China.

Taiwan is excluded from the WHO due to the objections of China, which views the island as one of its provinces.

Senior ministers in New Zealand said last week Taiwan should be allowed to join the WHO as an observer given its success in limiting the spread of the novel coronavirus, drawing China’s ire which asked the Pacific country to “stop making wrong statements”.

“We have got to stand up for ourselves,” Winston Peters, New Zealand’s foreign minister, said at a news conference when asked about China’s response to New Zealand’s position on Taiwan. “And true friendship is based on equality. It’s based on the ability in this friendship to nevertheless disagree.”

Peters said he did not think the issue would harm diplomatic ties with China, which is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner.

Taiwan has reported only 440 coronavirus cases and seven related deaths, relatively low figures attributed to early and effective disease prevention and control work.

Peters praised Taiwan’s response to Covid-19 and said there was a lot for other countries to learn from. “New Zealand’s position on Taiwan is about its tremendous success against Covid-19,” Peters said.

When asked about China’s response later in the day, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said New Zealand’s position on Taiwan was only related to its health response to Covid-19. “We have always taken a ‘One China’ policy, and that continues to be the case,” Ardern said.

Ties between neighbouring Australia and China have frayed in recent months after Canberra called for an international investigation into the origins and spread of the coronavirus that was first reported in the Chinese city of Wuhan late last year.

China has dismissed such a probe as groundless, saying the country has been open and transparent about the outbreak.


Rather ballsy of NZ, and although I can't speak to the wisdom of pushing for Taiwan to be included in the WHA, I do feel it is the 'right' thing to do... let's just hope it doesn't go badly.


The United States must immediately deliver nuclear warheads to Taiwan. If Taiwan falls to the Chinese, China burns. Ideally, U.S. forces should be stationed on the island nation as well to further deter any Chinese invasion attempt. Combined with an already significant U.S. naval presence and the progressive pullout of foreign manufacturers and businesses from China, this will make it far easier for the United States and the rest of the world to formally recognize Taiwan's independence, and for Taiwan to formally declare independence from the "Republic of China". Allied forces in the region should also be poised to swiftly liberate and hold Hong Kong in the event of hostilities with the increasingly bellicose, National Socialist (Nazi) superpower in the Far East.
LIBERA TE TUTEMET EX INFERIS (Liberate yourself from hell)
Alt of Glorious Hong Kong

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Nobel Hobos 2
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 14114
Founded: Dec 04, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Tue May 12, 2020 4:27 am

New Bremerton wrote:
Albrenia wrote:
Rather ballsy of NZ, and although I can't speak to the wisdom of pushing for Taiwan to be included in the WHA, I do feel it is the 'right' thing to do... let's just hope it doesn't go badly.


The United States must immediately deliver nuclear warheads to Taiwan. If Taiwan falls to the Chinese, China burns. Ideally, U.S. forces should be stationed on the island nation as well to further deter any Chinese invasion attempt. Combined with an already significant U.S. naval presence and the progressive pullout of foreign manufacturers and businesses from China, this will make it far easier for the United States and the rest of the world to formally recognize Taiwan's independence, and for Taiwan to formally declare independence from the "Republic of China". Allied forces in the region should also be poised to swiftly liberate and hold Hong Kong in the event of hostilities with the increasingly bellicose, National Socialist (Nazi) superpower in the Far East.


Aside from your hypothetical of China trying to invade Taiwan, you seem prepared to take a lot of risk for (a) UN membership for Taiwan and (b) actually nothing else.

As to Hong Kong, do "hostilities" include Carrie Lam inviting Chinese military in to suppress protestors? Not that it's likely, I'm just trying to see where this line you'd declare war at, is.
I report offenses if and only if they are crimes.
No footwear industry: citizens cannot afford new shoes.
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New Bremerton
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1344
Founded: Jul 20, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby New Bremerton » Tue May 12, 2020 8:42 am

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
New Bremerton wrote:
The United States must immediately deliver nuclear warheads to Taiwan. If Taiwan falls to the Chinese, China burns. Ideally, U.S. forces should be stationed on the island nation as well to further deter any Chinese invasion attempt. Combined with an already significant U.S. naval presence and the progressive pullout of foreign manufacturers and businesses from China, this will make it far easier for the United States and the rest of the world to formally recognize Taiwan's independence, and for Taiwan to formally declare independence from the "Republic of China". Allied forces in the region should also be poised to swiftly liberate and hold Hong Kong in the event of hostilities with the increasingly bellicose, National Socialist (Nazi) superpower in the Far East.


Aside from your hypothetical of China trying to invade Taiwan, you seem prepared to take a lot of risk for (a) UN membership for Taiwan and (b) actually nothing else.

As to Hong Kong, do "hostilities" include Carrie Lam inviting Chinese military in to suppress protestors? Not that it's likely, I'm just trying to see where this line you'd declare war at, is.


"Hostilities" refers to Chinese and U.S. forces directly engaging each other in actual armed combat, most likely at sea. I won't be the one drawing that line. HK is finished. If the PLA abolishes HK's autonomy, the United States can do little but lodge official protests and impose sanctions, but nothing resembling actual military confrontation.

It may be too late for HK, but it's not too late for Taiwan. America stood its ground during the Cuban Missile Crisis, resulting in Khrushchev's deposition by Brezhnev. We must stand our ground in Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific at all costs. Give an inch and they will take a mile. That's what Hitler did. Chamberlainian appeasement is not the solution.

The Chinese recently harassed a Malaysian drillship in the South China Sea and the Royal Malaysian Navy did fuck all about it. Our submarines are incapable of even submerging. It took the U.S. Navy to shoo the PLA Navy away. China is literally right on my country's doorstep and our corrupt, backdoor, pengkhianat (traitor) government may sell us out at any time. Imagine if the PLA actually invaded Sarawak and brutally enslaved and subjugated us. Putrajaya is practically guaranteed to roll over like an obedient puppy.
LIBERA TE TUTEMET EX INFERIS (Liberate yourself from hell)
Alt of Glorious Hong Kong

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Pilipinas and Malaya
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1983
Founded: Jun 23, 2017
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Pilipinas and Malaya » Tue May 12, 2020 10:52 am

New Bremerton wrote:
Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
Aside from your hypothetical of China trying to invade Taiwan, you seem prepared to take a lot of risk for (a) UN membership for Taiwan and (b) actually nothing else.

As to Hong Kong, do "hostilities" include Carrie Lam inviting Chinese military in to suppress protestors? Not that it's likely, I'm just trying to see where this line you'd declare war at, is.


"Hostilities" refers to Chinese and U.S. forces directly engaging each other in actual armed combat, most likely at sea. I won't be the one drawing that line. HK is finished. If the PLA abolishes HK's autonomy, the United States can do little but lodge official protests and impose sanctions, but nothing resembling actual military confrontation.

It may be too late for HK, but it's not too late for Taiwan. America stood its ground during the Cuban Missile Crisis, resulting in Khrushchev's deposition by Brezhnev. We must stand our ground in Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific at all costs. Give an inch and they will take a mile. That's what Hitler did. Chamberlainian appeasement is not the solution.

The Chinese recently harassed a Malaysian drillship in the South China Sea and the Royal Malaysian Navy did fuck all about it. Our submarines are incapable of even submerging. It took the U.S. Navy to shoo the PLA Navy away. China is literally right on my country's doorstep and our corrupt, backdoor, pengkhianat (traitor) government may sell us out at any time. Imagine if the PLA actually invaded Sarawak and brutally enslaved and subjugated us. Putrajaya is practically guaranteed to roll over like an obedient puppy.


Wait, what? You guys have subs? At least that's better than the rustbuckets we have. Our ships are literally American hand-me-downs. This makes our navy a few decades outdated, with the exception of a few corvettes and other ships from Japan and South Korea.
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Novus America
Post Czar
 
Posts: 38385
Founded: Jun 02, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Novus America » Tue May 12, 2020 11:00 am

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
New Bremerton wrote:
The United States must immediately deliver nuclear warheads to Taiwan. If Taiwan falls to the Chinese, China burns. Ideally, U.S. forces should be stationed on the island nation as well to further deter any Chinese invasion attempt. Combined with an already significant U.S. naval presence and the progressive pullout of foreign manufacturers and businesses from China, this will make it far easier for the United States and the rest of the world to formally recognize Taiwan's independence, and for Taiwan to formally declare independence from the "Republic of China". Allied forces in the region should also be poised to swiftly liberate and hold Hong Kong in the event of hostilities with the increasingly bellicose, National Socialist (Nazi) superpower in the Far East.


Aside from your hypothetical of China trying to invade Taiwan, you seem prepared to take a lot of risk for (a) UN membership for Taiwan and (b) actually nothing else.

As to Hong Kong, do "hostilities" include Carrie Lam inviting Chinese military in to suppress protestors? Not that it's likely, I'm just trying to see where this line you'd declare war at, is.


There is no reward without risk. That said trying to intervene in Hong Kong with military force is folly. Even if the PRC goes full 1989 (why did we not embargo them completely then? This whole mess could be avoided) sanctions and propaganda are all we can do.

Hong Kong is lost, but Taiwan can and must be defended.

Actually giving them nukes is probably too risky but nuclear sharing or probably safe, just having nuclear capable units distant through is probably something we could pursue.

We absolutely should recognize both the ROC and the PRC (which would really throw the PRC for a loop), bring back the Taiwan Defense Command.

The PRC is highly unlikely to attack Taiwan if they know we will defend it.
Even if they win against Taiwan attacking it would destroy their economy and international relations and if they lose then the they have destroyed themselves completely.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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Genivaria
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 69785
Founded: Mar 29, 2011
Ex-Nation

Postby Genivaria » Tue May 12, 2020 11:09 am

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
New Bremerton wrote:
The United States must immediately deliver nuclear warheads to Taiwan. If Taiwan falls to the Chinese, China burns. Ideally, U.S. forces should be stationed on the island nation as well to further deter any Chinese invasion attempt. Combined with an already significant U.S. naval presence and the progressive pullout of foreign manufacturers and businesses from China, this will make it far easier for the United States and the rest of the world to formally recognize Taiwan's independence, and for Taiwan to formally declare independence from the "Republic of China". Allied forces in the region should also be poised to swiftly liberate and hold Hong Kong in the event of hostilities with the increasingly bellicose, National Socialist (Nazi) superpower in the Far East.


Aside from your hypothetical of China trying to invade Taiwan, you seem prepared to take a lot of risk for (a) UN membership for Taiwan and (b) actually nothing else.

As to Hong Kong, do "hostilities" include Carrie Lam inviting Chinese military in to suppress protestors? Not that it's likely, I'm just trying to see where this line you'd declare war at, is.

Hong Kong is sadly not part of NATO no and it's been difficult getting our Pacific allies to get along.
Anarcho-Communist, Democratic Confederalist
"The Earth isn't dying, it's being killed. And those killing it have names and addresses." -Utah Phillips

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Novus America
Post Czar
 
Posts: 38385
Founded: Jun 02, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Novus America » Tue May 12, 2020 11:16 am

Pilipinas and Malaya wrote:
New Bremerton wrote:
"Hostilities" refers to Chinese and U.S. forces directly engaging each other in actual armed combat, most likely at sea. I won't be the one drawing that line. HK is finished. If the PLA abolishes HK's autonomy, the United States can do little but lodge official protests and impose sanctions, but nothing resembling actual military confrontation.

It may be too late for HK, but it's not too late for Taiwan. America stood its ground during the Cuban Missile Crisis, resulting in Khrushchev's deposition by Brezhnev. We must stand our ground in Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific at all costs. Give an inch and they will take a mile. That's what Hitler did. Chamberlainian appeasement is not the solution.

The Chinese recently harassed a Malaysian drillship in the South China Sea and the Royal Malaysian Navy did fuck all about it. Our submarines are incapable of even submerging. It took the U.S. Navy to shoo the PLA Navy away. China is literally right on my country's doorstep and our corrupt, backdoor, pengkhianat (traitor) government may sell us out at any time. Imagine if the PLA actually invaded Sarawak and brutally enslaved and subjugated us. Putrajaya is practically guaranteed to roll over like an obedient puppy.


Wait, what? You guys have subs? At least that's better than the rustbuckets we have. Our ships are literally American hand-me-downs. This makes our navy a few decades outdated, with the exception of a few corvettes and other ships from Japan and South Korea.


Malaysia has two Scorpène-class Subs which a quite capable. Too bad they do not have enough.

But two could sink a few PRC ships, the PRC has pretty poor ASW.

The Philippines desperately needs to improve its Air Force and Navy, it needs subs and Super Hornets desperately. Plus Stunner/David’s Sling.

Malaysia has real submarines and multi role fighters.

The Philippines has a good army despite its 50s to 60s equipment but it lacks air defenses, fighters maritime patrol and submarines and as such has no real defense against sea or air attacks.
Its military is entirely for fighting rebels, COIN.

The Philippines had no real ability against modern ships or aircraft.

Really given its economy the Philippines will struggle on its own, it really needs US support.
It did not need a Navy or real Air Force while Clark and Subic were around.

The Thirteenth Air Force and 7th Fleet were much more powerful than anything the Philippines could possibly afford on its own. They provided the Navy and air power mostly.

The Philippines kicked them out with no plan or ability to provide any sort of replacement.
Last edited by Novus America on Tue May 12, 2020 2:33 pm, edited 4 times in total.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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The Revolutionaries
Civil Servant
 
Posts: 8
Founded: Feb 11, 2020
Ex-Nation

Postby The Revolutionaries » Tue May 12, 2020 11:26 am

Yeah, the CCP does have many enemies, from the US to India, but most of those enemies rely on Chinese goods. If the US, for example, were to intervene against China, then China would probably embargo the US, which would wreck the US economy. Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang aren't strong enough alone to beat China. Even if all the people who hated china attacked them, It might not work. The Himalayas and Tibet would slow India, while China's missal system would be able to at least keep the US Pacific Fleet from landing without heavy casualties. The only way the CCP would be disposed is a general uprising, and I'm pretty sure that enough people in China are happy that it wouldn't work. Yes, the CCP is cornered, but they won't fall in the foreseeable future.

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Genivaria
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 69785
Founded: Mar 29, 2011
Ex-Nation

Postby Genivaria » Tue May 12, 2020 11:28 am

The Revolutionaries wrote:Yeah, the CCP does have many enemies, from the US to India, but most of those enemies rely on Chinese goods. If the US, for example, were to intervene against China, then China would probably embargo the US, which would wreck the US economy. Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang aren't strong enough alone to beat China. Even if all the people who hated china attacked them, It might not work. The Himalayas and Tibet would slow India, while China's missal system would be able to at least keep the US Pacific Fleet from landing without heavy casualties. The only way the CCP would be disposed is a general uprising, and I'm pretty sure that enough people in China are happy that it wouldn't work. Yes, the CCP is cornered, but they won't fall in the foreseeable future.

Noone is attacking or plans on attacking China, but we would like to see China stop shooting protesters in the street or committing genocide against ethnic minorities.
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Novus America
Post Czar
 
Posts: 38385
Founded: Jun 02, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Novus America » Tue May 12, 2020 11:40 am

The Revolutionaries wrote:Yeah, the CCP does have many enemies, from the US to India, but most of those enemies rely on Chinese goods. If the US, for example, were to intervene against China, then China would probably embargo the US, which would wreck the US economy. Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang aren't strong enough alone to beat China. Even if all the people who hated china attacked them, It might not work. The Himalayas and Tibet would slow India, while China's missal system would be able to at least keep the US Pacific Fleet from landing without heavy casualties. The only way the CCP would be disposed is a general uprising, and I'm pretty sure that enough people in China are happy that it wouldn't work. Yes, the CCP is cornered, but they won't fall in the foreseeable future.


Nobody is realistically calling for a landing or ground war against the PRC.
The PRC embargoing the US would hurt the PRC even worse than us to. The PRC is actually more dependent on outside things, especially food and oil. All we have to do is hold and defend the first island chain and they will collapse from oil shortages.

But we still need to break our dependence on PRC goods, at least for things besides toys and crap. We need to rebuild our aluminum, steel, and ESPECIALLY an fully vertically integrated electronic manufacturing ability. If cheap labor is a problem we have Mexico.

All our electronic, steel and aluminum consumption should be almost entirely produced from start to finish in NAFTA/USMCA.
Last edited by Novus America on Tue May 12, 2020 12:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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Genivaria
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 69785
Founded: Mar 29, 2011
Ex-Nation

Postby Genivaria » Tue May 12, 2020 11:42 am

Novus America wrote:
The Revolutionaries wrote:Yeah, the CCP does have many enemies, from the US to India, but most of those enemies rely on Chinese goods. If the US, for example, were to intervene against China, then China would probably embargo the US, which would wreck the US economy. Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang aren't strong enough alone to beat China. Even if all the people who hated china attacked them, It might not work. The Himalayas and Tibet would slow India, while China's missal system would be able to at least keep the US Pacific Fleet from landing without heavy casualties. The only way the CCP would be disposed is a general uprising, and I'm pretty sure that enough people in China are happy that it wouldn't work. Yes, the CCP is cornered, but they won't fall in the foreseeable future.


Nobody is realistically calling for a landing or ground war against the PRC. The PRC embargoing the US would hurt the PRC even worse than us to.

But we still need to break our dependence on PRC goods, at least for things besides toys and crap. We need to rebuild our aluminum, steel, and ESPECIALLY an fully vertically integrated electronic manufacturing ability. If cheap labor is a problem we have Mexico.

All our electronic, steel and aluminum consumption should be almost entirely produced from start to finish in NAFTA/USMCA.

Indeed.
We've economically isolated and hurt Russia, we can do the same to China which has done far worse.
Last edited by Genivaria on Tue May 12, 2020 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
Anarcho-Communist, Democratic Confederalist
"The Earth isn't dying, it's being killed. And those killing it have names and addresses." -Utah Phillips

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Pilipinas and Malaya
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1983
Founded: Jun 23, 2017
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Pilipinas and Malaya » Tue May 12, 2020 11:45 am

Genivaria wrote:
Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
Aside from your hypothetical of China trying to invade Taiwan, you seem prepared to take a lot of risk for (a) UN membership for Taiwan and (b) actually nothing else.

As to Hong Kong, do "hostilities" include Carrie Lam inviting Chinese military in to suppress protestors? Not that it's likely, I'm just trying to see where this line you'd declare war at, is.

Hong Kong is sadly not part of NATO no and it's been difficult getting our Pacific allies to get along.


Japan has no capability to intervene because it is limited by the JSDF being a defence-only military, South Korea may be reluctant because of North Korea, the Philippines is leaning way too close to China (though most locals would prefer otherwise), the rest of ASEAN may be up to the task, but they could back down on speaking out if China has something to offer (which they usually do).
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Yes, my nation does represent a good chunk of my views
Finally got around to dealing with a bunch of canon stuff, expect them to be updated every once in a while. | *inhales copium* In Civ 7, maybe we'll finally get a Filipino civ? | STREAM SEVENTEEN'S FML, OUT NOW

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Genivaria
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 69785
Founded: Mar 29, 2011
Ex-Nation

Postby Genivaria » Tue May 12, 2020 11:49 am

Pilipinas and Malaya wrote:
Genivaria wrote:Hong Kong is sadly not part of NATO no and it's been difficult getting our Pacific allies to get along.


Japan has no capability to intervene because it is limited by the JSDF being a defence-only military, South Korea may be reluctant because of North Korea, the Philippines is leaning way too close to China (though most locals would prefer otherwise), the rest of ASEAN may be up to the task, but they could back down on speaking out if China has something to offer (which they usually do).

Actually IIRC the JSDF expanded their mandate to aiding their allies recently, like there were actually protests over it.
Anarcho-Communist, Democratic Confederalist
"The Earth isn't dying, it's being killed. And those killing it have names and addresses." -Utah Phillips

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Novus America
Post Czar
 
Posts: 38385
Founded: Jun 02, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Novus America » Tue May 12, 2020 12:12 pm

Pilipinas and Malaya wrote:
Genivaria wrote:Hong Kong is sadly not part of NATO no and it's been difficult getting our Pacific allies to get along.


Japan has no capability to intervene because it is limited by the JSDF being a defence-only military, South Korea may be reluctant because of North Korea, the Philippines is leaning way too close to China (though most locals would prefer otherwise), the rest of ASEAN may be up to the task, but they could back down on speaking out if China has something to offer (which they usually do).


Japan now ascribes to collective defense, plus with US bases in Japan, Japan would side with the US if the US defends Taiwan. Obviously nobody can do anything about Hong Kong realistically beyond diplomatic and economic action.

Hopefully after Duterte goes the Philippines will have a more reasonable leader.

Corruption in ASEAN is the biggest problem. Together with the US and Japan the PRC has no chance, but ASEAN is too divided and its corrupt leaders too easy to bribe.

Myanmar especially is too pro PRC.
Last edited by Novus America on Tue May 12, 2020 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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Vistulange
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5065
Founded: May 13, 2012
Democratic Socialists

Postby Vistulange » Tue May 12, 2020 12:49 pm

Pilipinas and Malaya wrote:
Genivaria wrote:Hong Kong is sadly not part of NATO no and it's been difficult getting our Pacific allies to get along.


Japan has no capability to intervene because it is limited by the JSDF being a defence-only military, South Korea may be reluctant because of North Korea, the Philippines is leaning way too close to China (though most locals would prefer otherwise), the rest of ASEAN may be up to the task, but they could back down on speaking out if China has something to offer (which they usually do).

The number of ways a country can interpret "defence-only" if it wants to, especially if it's a country that has actually debated revoking that specific clause, is legion.
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Rijkenlandd
Diplomat
 
Posts: 553
Founded: Dec 17, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Rijkenlandd » Tue May 12, 2020 12:58 pm

Jakker wrote:
Rijkenlandd wrote:In the end, the world hasn't done pest control since 1991 and will be paying the price for it. Now we need somebody to step up and be the exterminator, save people from the misery they're in and put down the people that caused it.

The day everyone knows the truth of COVID is the day that the CCP will die.


Rijkenlandd wrote:Honestly, I think we should just band together and kick the fuck out of the PRC's ass.

March onto Beijing like it's the Boxer Rebellion, but this time with B-52's, M1A2's, F-35's, B-2's, and millions of troops. Remove every member of the CCP from being covered under the UN Declaration of Human Rights so we can really make them pay. Then get Taiwan to restore the ROC.

That's the only realistic way for those pests to pay for the damage they have done to the world.

I say this as somebody whose career prospects have been ended by the CCP's reckless spread and cover-up of COVID-19.


Take a *** 24-hour forum ban for Trolling ***. Advocating for death is not allowed nor is calling a group of people "pests." Note that this ban applies to you, the player, and not just this nation.


How is this trolling when I am genuinely pissed off? It seems as if you don't understand the misery in going through having your whole livelihood taken from you.
Last edited by Rijkenlandd on Tue May 12, 2020 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Australian rePublic
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 25675
Founded: Mar 18, 2013
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Australian rePublic » Tue May 12, 2020 2:30 pm

Due to coronavirus, the USA is facing shortage. Due to Australia's investigation into coronavirus, China spat the dummy and cut off meat imports from Australia. We should take our excess meat which isn't going to China and instead send it to the USA. At least temporarily, till we come up with a more permanent solution
From Greek ancestry Orthodox Christian
I would love to commission infrastructure in Australia. If anyone knows how I, as a lay person, could do so, please TG me. I'm dead serious
We're closer in time to 2050 than 1950

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Conservative Republic Of Huang
Minister
 
Posts: 2570
Founded: Jul 09, 2015
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Conservative Republic Of Huang » Tue May 12, 2020 2:34 pm

Pilipinas and Malaya wrote:
Genivaria wrote:Hong Kong is sadly not part of NATO no and it's been difficult getting our Pacific allies to get along.


Japan has no capability to intervene because it is limited by the JSDF being a defence-only military, South Korea may be reluctant because of North Korea, the Philippines is leaning way too close to China (though most locals would prefer otherwise), the rest of ASEAN may be up to the task, but they could back down on speaking out if China has something to offer (which they usually do).

Japan is basically not limited at this point, since the LDP keeps loosening the interpretation of Article 12. They've even "defending" themselves with a military base in Djibouti and deployed troops to Iraq.
Pro: Direct democracy, e-democracy, parliamentary sovereignty, state secularism, non-violent direct action (striking), police reform, syndicalism, democratic workplace management
Anti: Most types of representative democracy, ultra-nationalism, imperialism, autocratic workplace management, the state

"In the name of the greatest people that have ever trod this earth, I draw the line in the dust and toss the gauntlet before the feet of tyranny, and I say syndicalism now, syndicalism tomorrow, syndicalism forever."
not conservative or a republic
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Bienenhalde
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5983
Founded: Mar 11, 2017
Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Bienenhalde » Tue May 12, 2020 2:38 pm

Australian rePublic wrote:Due to coronavirus, the USA is facing shortage. Due to Australia's investigation into coronavirus, China spat the dummy and cut off meat imports from Australia. We should take our excess meat which isn't going to China and instead send it to the USA. At least temporarily, till we come up with a more permanent solution


What about the UK? Do you think they might be interesting in buying Australian meat?

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Australian rePublic
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 25675
Founded: Mar 18, 2013
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Australian rePublic » Tue May 12, 2020 2:41 pm

Bienenhalde wrote:
Australian rePublic wrote:Due to coronavirus, the USA is facing shortage. Due to Australia's investigation into coronavirus, China spat the dummy and cut off meat imports from Australia. We should take our excess meat which isn't going to China and instead send it to the USA. At least temporarily, till we come up with a more permanent solution


What about the UK? Do you think they might be interesting in buying Australian meat?

That works too! Or any other country facing a coronavirus meat shortage
From Greek ancestry Orthodox Christian
I would love to commission infrastructure in Australia. If anyone knows how I, as a lay person, could do so, please TG me. I'm dead serious
We're closer in time to 2050 than 1950

Wonderful Song Quotes

18 Published Issues, 1 Published WA Resolution

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Novus America
Post Czar
 
Posts: 38385
Founded: Jun 02, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Novus America » Tue May 12, 2020 2:42 pm

Australian rePublic wrote:Due to coronavirus, the USA is facing shortage. Due to Australia's investigation into coronavirus, China spat the dummy and cut off meat imports from Australia. We should take our excess meat which isn't going to China and instead send it to the USA. At least temporarily, till we come up with a more permanent solution


The key is simply becoming more flexible rather than excessively trading with one partner, especially the PRC. If the PRC is buying less of your meat, they are buying more from someone else, creating openings elsewhere.

The problem is when you have fixed supply chains based on unreliable and hostile countries you have a problem. Instead focus on flexible and balanced trade with friends or at least less hostile places.
Last edited by Novus America on Tue May 12, 2020 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

User avatar
Australian rePublic
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 25675
Founded: Mar 18, 2013
Left-Leaning College State

Postby Australian rePublic » Tue May 12, 2020 2:45 pm

Novus America wrote:
Australian rePublic wrote:Due to coronavirus, the USA is facing shortage. Due to Australia's investigation into coronavirus, China spat the dummy and cut off meat imports from Australia. We should take our excess meat which isn't going to China and instead send it to the USA. At least temporarily, till we come up with a more permanent solution


The key is simply becoming more flexible rather than excessively trading with one partner, especially the PRC. If the PRC is buying less of your meat, they are buying more from someone else, creating openings elsewhere.

The problem is when you have fixed supply chains based on unreliable and hostile countries you have a problem. Instead crocus on flexible and balanced trade with friends or at least less hostile places.

I agree wholeheartedly
From Greek ancestry Orthodox Christian
I would love to commission infrastructure in Australia. If anyone knows how I, as a lay person, could do so, please TG me. I'm dead serious
We're closer in time to 2050 than 1950

Wonderful Song Quotes

18 Published Issues, 1 Published WA Resolution

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