The Future of China

[Novus America]

Complete non sequitur. But again I am done with this.
I can at least debate SIC. I disagree with him but I see where he is coming from.

You know it's bad when SIC's occasionally indecipherable English is more coherent than IM despite having better grammar.

Exactly. At least I can see he read what I wrote, mostly understood it, and despite the somewhat difficult to read language makes a point of actually replying to my argument and making a relevant argument in return.
SICs arguments do not sound like a bad spam bot simply pasting preset talking points.

[Bombadil]

Did I ever say China has thrown away the use of force option?

No I have not.

You may want to go back a few posts and read what I did say. You act like this is a counter argument while in actuality, it provides context. It was never stated nor asserted that the use of force isn’t a reserved option, just that it’s not the default one. If you look at the world now... you can see that economic tools are being used, but not the military ones yet.

Also, if a government source has stated that there is “popular support for x” I’m going to believe them as a reliable source (since they have actual credentials) over other unsubstantiated assertions by posters. I think that’s fair, unless you can claim to have more knowledge and/ or better and more credible sources to back up claims.

Well, polls and survey results would help, for one. I don't think the government has been doing any survey, so unless they have an army of telepathy hiding in government buildings, I'm inclined to think that it doesn't have any relevant credentials in that regard.

Well quite, though it's interesting to note HK attitudes on Taiwan independence. Back in 2010 only 15% thought Taiwan should be independent, 72% thought not, indicating a degree of comfort with 1C2S. Over Xi Jinping's tenure that figure has changed dramatically to where, now, 49% think Taiwan should be independent with 38% thinking not.

That's pretty much an indication of what people in HK think about growing encroachment on independence and the comfort with 1C2S. It's no big feat to extrapolate that out to the idea more than most HKers are against this new law, which is a huge breach of 1C2S, shows China has no intention of allowing people to retain their freedoms and will violently crack down because people wrote some books about Xi Jinping.

China’s military is ready and able to “safeguard” Chinese sovereignty in Hong Kong, the commander of the city-based garrison has said, amid growing anger at Beijing’s plans to bypass Hong Kong’s legislature and impose national security laws in the city.

The warning came as protesters prepared for further demonstrations on Wednesday when the legislature starts debate on a controversial bill to criminalise ridicule of the Chinese national anthem.

In an interview with Chinese state television, Chen Daoxiang, the commander of the People’s Liberation Army garrison in Hong Kong, said it has the “determination, confidence and ability to protect national security” in the city.

Not sure they're needed, HKPF has shown themselves more than willing to mete out violence to citizens but bringing in the PLA adds one more level of removal to any restraint as to the lengths they will go.

[Bombadil]

Chinese Navy are moving near Taiwan, an invasion is inevitable. I swear to god someone just declare war on the chinese

PLA warships are approaching Taiwan as long as they leave the port. They are far away from Taiwan only when they cross Taiwan to the Pacific Ocean or the Indian Ocean.

Actually in this case they're specifically conducting land invasion exercises near some islands owned by Taiwan, though most observers don't think it's too much to worry about as those islands no longer have strategic value given the Spratly Islands.

However the rhetoric from China and Taiwan is ominous, with China doubling down on reunification and Taiwan doubling down on military defence and independence.

Not now perhaps but I don't think it's a question of whether but when.

[Infected Mushroom]

It’s not a weapon. Chinese trade benefits the Western consumer. It helps everyone.

If the Chinese want to encourage some censoring, it does so in a responsible and limited capacity to protect its national interests. Now let’s be honest here... there’s close to zero public good ( or any good at all) in allowing provocative and insulting anti-Chinese comments on YouTube or anywhere else. That kind of censorship is good policy with respect to harm prevention.

What do you mean by "anti-Chinese"?

Racism or merely anti-PRC?

At this point there is an increasingly harmful blurring between the two and it’s no longer useful to separate the two when we try to make policy as a government or as a private company.

The PRC safeguards China and keeps it as one nation. Without it, there would be another Warring States period and in this day and age that would mean millions dead (millions of Chinese dead). So how can you realistically be against the PRC and still have the Chinese people’s best interests at heart? It’s not really compatible. How can you endorse chaos, uncertainty, revolution and/or war in China and still credibly say: “I have nothing against the Chinese.”?

And I hope you realize that harmful comments on various social media platforms have led to hate crimes against Asians. So you can’t automatically say, “Chinese efforts to censor anything and everything is wrong.”

[Bombadil]

It’s not just Lam going... “hmmm what do I as one person think? Okay I will say that.”

Oh no

No, it's 'hmmm what does Xi Jinping as one person think? Okay I will say that."

The idea that HKers support this new law is absolutely ludicrous.

[Infected Mushroom]

It’s not just Lam going... “hmmm what do I as one person think? Okay I will say that.”

Oh no

No, it's 'hmmm what does Xi Jinping as one person think? Okay I will say that."

The idea that HKers support this new law is absolutely ludicrous.

The HK government has mentioned in one source that there is a “popular support.” And since they have access to experts and Lam herself has been running this government for years, that sets a standard to disprove... not the other way around.

[Bombadil]

And I hope you realize that harmful comments on various social media platforms have led to hate crimes against Asians. So you can’t automatically say, “Chinese efforts to censor anything and everything is wrong.”

Lol.. that doesn't make sense given the censored words are “共匪” (“communist bandit”) or “五毛” (“50-cent party”) - that is merely protecting the CCP, not Asians.

[Tuthina]

Well, polls and survey results would help, for one. I don't think the government has been doing any survey, so unless they have an army of telepathy hiding in government buildings, I'm inclined to think that it doesn't have any relevant credentials in that regard.

I should hope that you’re aware that the HK SAR government , like any other government, has access to panels and departments of qualified experts and advisors when making conclusions and statements.

When the source says “Carrie Lam says X” it means she’s doing so as a representative of that government, with that access to that information and expertise.

It’s not just Lam going... “hmmm what do I as one person think? Okay I will say that.”

Oh no

Unless those experts and advisors are telepaths, I don't see how their expertise can provide relevant insights without raw data from things like polls and survey. In fact, it would at least help that if the experts themselves can tell us how they reach that conclusion.

[Slavakino]

Chinese Navy are moving near Taiwan, an invasion is inevitable. I swear to god someone just declare war on the chinese

PLA warships are approaching Taiwan as long as they leave the port. They are far away from Taiwan only when they cross Taiwan to the Pacific Ocean or the Indian Ocean.

Taiwan should not give in to the PLA

[Shanghai industrial complex]

PLA warships are approaching Taiwan as long as they leave the port. They are far away from Taiwan only when they cross Taiwan to the Pacific Ocean or the Indian Ocean.

Actually in this case they're specifically conducting land invasion exercises near some islands owned by Taiwan, though most observers don't think it's too much to worry about as those islands no longer have strategic value given the Spratly Islands.

However the rhetoric from China and Taiwan is ominous, with China doubling down on reunification and Taiwan doubling down on military defence and independence.

Not now perhaps but I don't think it's a question of whether but when.

If you are worried about this, it is better to pay attention to the PLA's recent military exercises in the Bohai Bay and the South China Sea.There is a two-month military exercise in the Bohai Bay, and the width of the sea area is exactly the same as that of the Taiwan Strait.Nansha Islands is of great strategic value. Its military bases will ensure the safety of China's air routes there.By the way, most Chinese routes have to go through the South China Sea and then through the Taiwan Strait to the northern port.Recently, Taiwan has begun to soften its attitude. There will be no problem for the time being

[Infected Mushroom]

And I hope you realize that harmful comments on various social media platforms have led to hate crimes against Asians. So you can’t automatically say, “Chinese efforts to censor anything and everything is wrong.”

Lol.. that doesn't make sense given the censored words are “共匪” (“communist bandit”) or “五毛” (“50-cent party”) - that is merely protecting the CCP, not Asians.

Those are unproductive insult words though, and in platforms like YT where you have a lot of controversial commenters, it often goes from there into a cascade of racial slurs

Is the internet made a better space if their use is restricted? I would think so.

[Novus America]

PLA warships are approaching Taiwan as long as they leave the port. They are far away from Taiwan only when they cross Taiwan to the Pacific Ocean or the Indian Ocean.

Taiwan should not give in to the PLA

It will not. It will fight, but it will never willingly submit to PRC rule.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

Taiwan should not give in to the PLA

It will not. It will fight, but it will never willingly submit to PRC rule.

They are disarmament and cutting military spending. They also cut down on military service.It's only one year's service in Taiwan now.And Taiwanese like these policies.Maybe they want to resist, but they definitely don't want to do it themselves

[Bombadil]

Actually in this case they're specifically conducting land invasion exercises near some islands owned by Taiwan, though most observers don't think it's too much to worry about as those islands no longer have strategic value given the Spratly Islands.

However the rhetoric from China and Taiwan is ominous, with China doubling down on reunification and Taiwan doubling down on military defence and independence.

Not now perhaps but I don't think it's a question of whether but when.

If you are worried about this, it is better to pay attention to the PLA's recent military exercises in the Bohai Bay and the South China Sea.There is a two-month military exercise in the Bohai Bay, and the width of the sea area is exactly the same as that of the Taiwan Strait.Nansha Islands is of great strategic value. Its military bases will ensure the safety of China's air routes there.By the way, most Chinese routes have to go through the South China Sea and then through the Taiwan Strait to the northern port.Recently, Taiwan has begun to soften its attitude. There will be no problem for the time being

Well, it's very hard to tell but there are a lot of factors that, at least, make this a dangerous time. You have two thin-skinned leaders under pressure - Trump from elections, Xi from a poor economy given the trade wars and Covid as well as HK - you have an increasingly independent minded Taiwan, you have a ratcheting up of rhetoric and military manoeuvres..

..I'm not overly worried, least to say I'm more worried than I was a year ago.

Few in the summer of 1914 thought war would break out between a rising nationalist power and an incumbent empire.

It will not. It will fight, but it will never willingly submit to PRC rule.

They are disarmament and cutting military spending. They also cut down on military service.It's only one year's service in Taiwan now.And Taiwanese like these policies.Maybe they want to resist, but they definitely don't want to do it themselves

That's because they're placing all their bets on holding off China long enough in the air. A Taiwanese army is close to useless if they can't hold off in the air. That's why they bought a whole load of planes and equipment in 2018. Similarly South Korea.. that's why China acts out so much when these sales are made, everyone knows it's about air control.

[Slavakino]

Taiwan should not give in to the PLA

It will not. It will fight, but it will never willingly submit to PRC rule.

Good. 1,200 US Marines were stationed in Darwin due to Chinese military presence

[Novus America]

It will not. It will fight, but it will never willingly submit to PRC rule.

They are disarmament and cutting military spending. They also cut down on military service.It's only one year's service in Taiwan now.And Taiwanese like these policies.Maybe they want to resist, but they definitely don't want to do it themselves

Actually:
“Last year, Taiwan announced plans to steadily up its defense budget over the next decade. Defense spending totaled $11.34 billion in 2019, up 5.6 percent the previous year, and is expected to surpass $13 billion by 2027. Taiwan’s government also has plans to develop indigenous training jets, submarines, and other weapons technology to supplement its foreign arms purchases.“

So no, they are increasing spending. They just ordered new EW systems from France and Mark 48 torpedoes from the US.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/is-taiw ... tnerships/

The are not disarming. They are rather changing their defense priorities from conventional warfare to A2/AD.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

If you are worried about this, it is better to pay attention to the PLA's recent military exercises in the Bohai Bay and the South China Sea.There is a two-month military exercise in the Bohai Bay, and the width of the sea area is exactly the same as that of the Taiwan Strait.Nansha Islands is of great strategic value. Its military bases will ensure the safety of China's air routes there.By the way, most Chinese routes have to go through the South China Sea and then through the Taiwan Strait to the northern port.Recently, Taiwan has begun to soften its attitude. There will be no problem for the time being

Well, it's very hard to tell but there are a lot of factors that, at least, make this a dangerous time. You have two thin-skinned leaders under pressure - Trump from elections, Xi from a poor economy given the trade wars and Covid as well as HK - you have an increasingly independent minded Taiwan, you have a ratcheting up of rhetoric and military manoeuvres..

..I'm not overly worried, least to say I'm more worried than I was a year ago.

Few in the summer of 1914 thought war would break out between a rising nationalist power and an incumbent empire.

They are disarmament and cutting military spending. They also cut down on military service.It's only one year's service in Taiwan now.And Taiwanese like these policies.Maybe they want to resist, but they definitely don't want to do it themselves

That's because they're placing all their bets on holding off China long enough in the air. A Taiwanese army is close to useless if they can't hold off in the air. That's why they bought a whole load of planes and equipment in 2018. Similarly South Korea.. that's why China acts out so much when these sales are made, everyone knows it's about air control.

cutting military spending----Then they should buy more planes.66 f-16vs can't change anything,It's still an upgrade from an old plane. It's just a normal update of old gear. Taiwan's airports are within the range of PLA rocket projectile.Even i think there's no honor in attacking such an opponent because they're like as giving up military power.Taiwan also spent $180 million buy 18 of mk48, which are nearing the end of their lives. It feels like giving protection to trump religion.I beg them to buy something normal people should buy.

[Novus America]

Well, it's very hard to tell but there are a lot of factors that, at least, make this a dangerous time. You have two thin-skinned leaders under pressure - Trump from elections, Xi from a poor economy given the trade wars and Covid as well as HK - you have an increasingly independent minded Taiwan, you have a ratcheting up of rhetoric and military manoeuvres..

..I'm not overly worried, least to say I'm more worried than I was a year ago.

Few in the summer of 1914 thought war would break out between a rising nationalist power and an incumbent empire.



That's because they're placing all their bets on holding off China long enough in the air. A Taiwanese army is close to useless if they can't hold off in the air. That's why they bought a whole load of planes and equipment in 2018. Similarly South Korea.. that's why China acts out so much when these sales are made, everyone knows it's about air control.

cutting military spending----Then they should buy more planes.66 f-16vs can't change anything,It's still an upgrade from an old plane. It's just a normal update of old gear. Taiwan's airports are within the range of PLA rocket projectile.Even i think there's no honor in attacking such an opponent because they're like as giving up military power.Taiwan also spent $180 million buy 18 of mk48, which are nearing the end of their lives. It feels like giving protection to trump religion.I beg them to buy something normal people should buy.

They did not cut military spending they increased it. Just their priorities are changing. They are funding programs to build their own air defense systems and submarines, plus missiles that can hit the mainland back. Taiwan is in range of PRC missiles but the reverse applies.
If Taipei burns so can Shanghai.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

They are disarmament and cutting military spending. They also cut down on military service.It's only one year's service in Taiwan now.And Taiwanese like these policies.Maybe they want to resist, but they definitely don't want to do it themselves

Actually:
“Last year, Taiwan announced plans to steadily up its defense budget over the next decade. Defense spending totaled $11.34 billion in 2019, up 5.6 percent the previous year, and is expected to surpass $13 billion by 2027. Taiwan’s government also has plans to develop indigenous training jets, submarines, and other weapons technology to supplement its foreign arms purchases.“

So no, they are increasing spending. They just ordered new EW systems from France and Mark 48 torpedoes from the US.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/is-taiw ... tnerships/

The are not disarming. They are rather changing their defense priorities from conventional warfare to A2/AD.

Oh,yes.I'm wrong.In the two years, they have finally acted.In the past decade, their military expenditure was almost the same, lower than CPI.Thank goodness, they bought a pile of rubbish.The United States is going to sell some M1A2 to Taiwan. It's too heavy for Taiwan's topography.There are also some Taiwanese warships that can't be equipped with mk48, which is about to be overdue.Thanks.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

cutting military spending----Then they should buy more planes.66 f-16vs can't change anything,It's still an upgrade from an old plane. It's just a normal update of old gear. Taiwan's airports are within the range of PLA rocket projectile.Even i think there's no honor in attacking such an opponent because they're like as giving up military power.Taiwan also spent $180 million buy 18 of mk48, which are nearing the end of their lives. It feels like giving protection to trump religion.I beg them to buy something normal people should buy.

They did not cut military spending they increased it. Just their priorities are changing. They are funding programs to build their own air defense systems and submarines, plus missiles that can hit the mainland back. Taiwan is in range of PRC missiles but the reverse applies.
If Taipei burns so can Shanghai.

Wow,so terrible.

[Novus America]

Actually:
“Last year, Taiwan announced plans to steadily up its defense budget over the next decade. Defense spending totaled $11.34 billion in 2019, up 5.6 percent the previous year, and is expected to surpass $13 billion by 2027. Taiwan’s government also has plans to develop indigenous training jets, submarines, and other weapons technology to supplement its foreign arms purchases.“

So no, they are increasing spending. They just ordered new EW systems from France and Mark 48 torpedoes from the US.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/is-taiw ... tnerships/

The are not disarming. They are rather changing their defense priorities from conventional warfare to A2/AD.

Oh,yes.I'm wrong.In the two years, they have finally acted.In the past decade, their military expenditure was almost the same, lower than CPI.Thank goodness, they bought a pile of rubbish.The United States is going to sell some M1A2 to Taiwan. It's too heavy for Taiwan's topography.There are also some Taiwanese warships that can't be equipped with mk48, which is about to be overdue.Thanks.

I do agree the M1 is not very well suited for Taiwan’s terrain. It looks like the torpedoes are probably more for testing for their submarine program.
Once they have the submarines built I expect them to buy more and near torpedoes.

But they are building up some new capabilities.

The US made a mistake making only giant nuclear subs. Our subs are very good but they are too big and expensive for export. We need to build a smaller non nuclear submarines just for foreign sakes to places like Taiwan.

[Novus America]

They did not cut military spending they increased it. Just their priorities are changing. They are funding programs to build their own air defense systems and submarines, plus missiles that can hit the mainland back. Taiwan is in range of PRC missiles but the reverse applies.
If Taipei burns so can Shanghai.

Wow,so terrible.

It will be terrible if the PRC attacks Taiwan. War is terrible.
Both sides will suffer badly, both economies will be devastated.
But if the PRC bomb Taiwan, Taiwan can retaliate. That is something the people of the PRC are not prepared for.

But it can be avoided, if the PRC is sensible enough to not attack in the first place.

I have seen war, but I think too many people in the PRC think it will be just some fun game.

[Bombadil]

Actually:
“Last year, Taiwan announced plans to steadily up its defense budget over the next decade. Defense spending totaled $11.34 billion in 2019, up 5.6 percent the previous year, and is expected to surpass $13 billion by 2027. Taiwan’s government also has plans to develop indigenous training jets, submarines, and other weapons technology to supplement its foreign arms purchases.“

So no, they are increasing spending. They just ordered new EW systems from France and Mark 48 torpedoes from the US.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/is-taiw ... tnerships/

The are not disarming. They are rather changing their defense priorities from conventional warfare to A2/AD.

Oh,yes.I'm wrong.In the two years, they have finally acted.In the past decade, their military expenditure was almost the same, lower than CPI.Thank goodness, they bought a pile of rubbish.The United States is going to sell some M1A2 to Taiwan. It's too heavy for Taiwan's topography.There are also some Taiwanese warships that can't be equipped with mk48, which is about to be overdue.Thanks.

Well luckily it's not just Taiwan on its own is it, there's South Korea and Japan, with additional US bases in both, along with their own air defence missiles.. it would take maybe 3-5 days to deploy from other bases in the Pacific from Guam to Hawaii - and, honestly, the US can ultimately say 'pull back or say goodbye to Wuhan'.

Xi Jinping is in a difficult place, Taiwan is seizing the opportunity to push its case for recognised independence, what will he do? His actions in HK certainly haven't helped. Alas he has to do this for internal reasons - it's a problem for the CCP, ever having to keep a clear eye on justification for their rule on the one hand while clamping down on surveillance and restricting dissent on the other.

I noted a while ago that the health tracking apps, once put in place, were unlikely to be removed and it seems Hangzhou has already announced they will now be permanent.

However, the push to make a permanent version appears to have crossed a line for some. “Outside of the epidemic periods, it has strong privacy issues,” said one commenter on a news article posted to Weibo.

Another said: “The boundary between personal health and public health should be reflected. The health code is for others to read. Others have no right to read your personal health reports.”

“What the hell do my smoking, drinking and sleeping habits have to do with you?” read another comment on Weibo.

“We have no privacy left whatsoever,” lamented another user.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

Oh,yes.I'm wrong.In the two years, they have finally acted.In the past decade, their military expenditure was almost the same, lower than CPI.Thank goodness, they bought a pile of rubbish.The United States is going to sell some M1A2 to Taiwan. It's too heavy for Taiwan's topography.There are also some Taiwanese warships that can't be equipped with mk48, which is about to be overdue.Thanks.

I do agree the M1 is not very well suited for Taiwan’s terrain. It looks like the torpedoes are probably more for testing for their submarine program.
Once they have the submarines built I expect them to buy more and near torpedoes.

But they are building up some new capabilities.

The US made a mistake making only giant nuclear subs. Our subs are very good but they are too big and expensive for export. We need to build a smaller non nuclear submarines just for foreign sakes to places like Taiwan.

Actually, it's a robbery against Taiwan.Taiwan knows they don't need these things, but they have to buy them at a high price.

[Infected Mushroom]

Wow,so terrible.

It will be terrible if the PRC attacks Taiwan. War is terrible.
Both sides will suffer badly, both economies will be devastated.
But if the PRC bomb Taiwan, Taiwan can retaliate. That is something the people of the PRC are not prepared for.

But it can be avoided, if the PRC is sensible enough to not attack in the first place.

Have they attacked?

No. So why are we posting like they are already attacking or will attack soon? It’s so strange.