The Kims: East Asian Lucretia & Cesare?

[Arumdaum]

op should update that it turned out to be fake

[Old Zealand Founder]

Actually, a bunch of things. This is just my opinion though.

If Kim Yo-jong (Kim Jong-un's sister) takes over, nothing will change. She might even be more aggressive to assert herself as the rightful ruler of Best Korea. Most likely IMO and the one without a power struggle.

If Choe Ryong Hae (super powerful government official) takes over, there is a chance for reform. Having no family ties with the Kims, he doesn't necessarily have to uphold the legacy of the family and can reform. The government won't really like that though if it means losing their positions. A power struggle, or even a civil war, might occur here; China might support someone, but it's also not guaranteed.

imo the only change you'd see if Choe took over is a deposition of the Kims but retaining the same overall structure.

That would be the most likely outcome. I'm just saying that there is a chance if it's not a Kim, whereas if Yo-jong did that she would most likely be overthrown.

op should update that it turned out to be fake

We don't really know if it's real or if it's fake.

[Arumdaum]

imo the only change you'd see if Choe took over is a deposition of the Kims but retaining the same overall structure.

That would be the most likely outcome. I'm just saying that there is a chance if it's not a Kim, whereas if Yo-jong did that she would most likely be overthrown.

op should update that it turned out to be fake

We don't really know if it's real or if it's fake.

It's most definitely fake.

Korea experts are all calling it unsubstantiated, the ROK government is saying there is evidence to the contrary, American officials are saying that there is no evidence from US intelligence, and the Western news media organizations that were publicizing it are now retracting their statements.

Kim Jong-un sent greetings to the President of Cuba on Monday and sent birthday gifts to two Northerners for their 80th birthday.

The whole rumor started due to a statement by an "anonymous US official" which was published in CNN. Every other Western news outlets just blew it out of proportion, like they do with all news about the DPRK, after copying the CNN article.

Kim Jong-un is currently recovering from his surgery outside of Pyeongyang, according to ROK government sources, which are the usual source of information for a lot of news regarding the DPRK.

[Arumdaum]

https://twitter.com/redsteeze/status/12 ... 21/photo/1

That's not a report, that's a deleted tweet from a journalist who realised what baseless speculation it was, and no mention of any fleeing.. which would be incredibly difficult anyway..

..so, no, you're not.

This. She was heavily criticized for publishing a completely baseless and unsubstantiated rumor which made the whole reporting situation worse, so she ended up deleting it. Sad that people are still citing her tweet after deletion.

[Arumdaum]

No one in this thread knows anything the DPRK. Yeesh.

[Lanorth]

This was debunked by South Korea, according to the BBC, sadly.

For which you have a source, no doubt.

Of course.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52364055

[The Archregimancy]

Indira Gandhi wasn't so much an out and out dictator, more an elected leader with authoritarian tendencies in a party-dominant democracy.

Would you consider Putin to be a dictator then? He did win his first election fairly

It's off topic, so I don't want to delve into this too deeply.

There are degrees in the transition between democracy and dictatorship, and it's not always obvious when the line has been crossed. I would simply note that Putin has been in no danger of losing an election for president since his first election in 2000, and 2012 is the only election since 2000 where Putin or his proxy Medvedev has won less than 70% of the vote (with a measly 64%). Whether this is because Putin is genuinely popular or because elections are carefully managed to ensure a specific result is often disputed depending on individual views on Putin (personally I'm in the carefully managed camp), but now that the constitution is in the process of being rewritten to allow Putin to stay in power indefinitely it's becoming much less ambiguous that Russia is further along that transition than India has ever been.

In contrast, while Indira Gandhi did use a tame president to institute the emergency rule provisions of the Indian constitution for 2 years, and persecuted the opposition in that period, she then lost the first election she held after ending emergency rule by a large margin, losing her own seat in the Indian Parliament, and didn't attempt to overturn or contest that election result. The Emergency rightly remains controversial and open to significant criticism; but dictators don't lose elections, never mind lose them in landslides. Or at least not elections they call out of choice.

[Bombadil]

One could argue a case for Jiang Qing in the latter stages of life and for a short period post-death of Mao before she was arrested and tried.

[Sundiata]

He and his victims are in my prayers.

[Old Zealand Founder]

That would be the most likely outcome. I'm just saying that there is a chance if it's not a Kim, whereas if Yo-jong did that she would most likely be overthrown.

We don't really know if it's real or if it's fake.

It's most definitely fake.

Korea experts are all calling it unsubstantiated, the ROK government is saying there is evidence to the contrary, American officials are saying that there is no evidence from US intelligence, and the Western news media organizations that were publicizing it are now retracting their statements.

Kim Jong-un sent greetings to the President of Cuba on Monday and sent birthday gifts to two Northerners for their 80th birthday.

The whole rumor started due to a statement by an "anonymous US official" which was published in CNN. Every other Western news outlets just blew it out of proportion, like they do with all news about the DPRK, after copying the CNN article.

Kim Jong-un is currently recovering from his surgery outside of Pyeongyang, according to ROK government sources, which are the usual source of information for a lot of news regarding the DPRK.

Ah, I see. Quite a shame really.

[Aikoriland]

From what I read, it is mostly just rumors right now. Of course, given Kim Jong-Un's obesity, poor diet, and heavy smoking, I wouldn't be surprised if the rumors turned out to be true.

[Ethel mermania]

So CNN put out fake news once again?

Now there is a surprise. On the bright side it shows their reporting on anything the administration does is not out of malice but incompetence.

[Thermodolia]

China better have a contingency plan to accept North Korean refugees streaming across their river border. South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and Taiwan better watch out for rogue nuclear missiles.

Other than that, what else can happen from a North Korean succession crisis?

China is known to invade NK in the event their government goes tits up.

The PRC doesn’t want to have what basically amounts to NATO on its border.

[Valrifell]

So CNN put out fake news once again?

Now there is a surprise. On the bright side it shows their reporting on anything the administration does is not out of malice but incompetence.

You're silly.

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

No one in this thread knows anything the DPRK. Yeesh.

As if anyone here can actually say truth to what’s really going on inside the DPRK. No one really knows for sure.

[Rojava Free State]

So CNN put out fake news once again?

Now there is a surprise. On the bright side it shows their reporting on anything the administration does is not out of malice but incompetence.

You're silly.

You know as well as anyone else that CNN sucks at their job.

[Rojava Free State]

No one in this thread knows anything the DPRK. Yeesh.

We know they're run by a mass murderer and the country is a third world shithole as a result of seven decades of Juche.

[Valrifell]

You're silly.

You know as well as anyone else that CNN sucks at their job.

"CNN followed a rumor from someone at the UN, ergo anything they report on Trump is from incompetence"

Unless I can't read (a possibility) that's a silly thing to assert.

[Arumdaum]

You know as well as anyone else that CNN sucks at their job.

"CNN followed a rumor from someone at the UN, ergo anything they report on Trump is from incompetence"

Unless I can't read (a possibility) that's a silly thing to assert.

CNN followed the rumor from an anonymous "US official," not from someone at the UN.

[Valrifell]

"CNN followed a rumor from someone at the UN, ergo anything they report on Trump is from incompetence"

Unless I can't read (a possibility) that's a silly thing to assert.

CNN followed the rumor from an "anonymous US official," not from someone at the UN.

Oof

[Arumdaum]

No one in this thread knows anything the DPRK. Yeesh.

As if anyone here can actually say truth to what’s really going on inside the DPRK. No one really knows for sure.

There is a lot of information about and good fairly academic sources on North Korea.

[Arumdaum]

You would imagine that if the source is an anonymous American, then US intelligence and Trump would know more about it.

[Nakena]

You would imagine that if the source is an anonymous American, then US intelligence and Trump would know more about it.

US intelligence might have it from a poor sauce. Probably in PRC or ROK. Dunno if they have some people on the ground inside the DPRK or informers. Maybe some diplomatic connections though and even that is doubtful.

[Arumdaum]

You would imagine that if the source is an anonymous American, then US intelligence and Trump would know more about it.

US intelligence might have it from a poor sauce. Probably in PRC or ROK. Dunno if they have some people on the ground inside the DPRK or informers. Maybe some diplomatic connections though and even that is doubtful.

I don't think the source is even from US intelligence, since they don't know about it. It appears to just be from some random, unnamed American official.

according to a US official with direct knowledge.

This is from the article from CNN that started the whole frenzy. No one knows who this official is, and those who are actually part of US intelligence are saying that there is no evidence that this is true.

[Arumdaum]

And I thought my opinion of CNN couldn't get any lower...