RWDT XX: The System Is Kapp Putsch

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

That's mildly interesting (sincerely) but it doesn't detract from what I was saying.

It's mostly a contradiction with a previous point you made. Christian women especially seem to be observant and active in their community. Jewish, Muslim, and Hindu women aren't doing too shabby either, though we seem to fall behind in attendance and prayers for a variety of reasons. And women are more likely than men to self-identify with these religions everywhere.

women mostly aren’t religious (read: christian) because religion is low status. in islamic or hindu societies where religion is high status, almost all women are religious

well,

My point wasn't that women are less religious than men. My point is that in western societies, religiosity and status no longer share a relationship. I guess you can say they're inverse or opposite, but we won't debate that, we'll just say there's no connection. Contrast to Islamic societies by which I mean countries where most people are Muslims, religion is still very high status. Most women are religious — so are most men.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

aside from my prior brainfart

On a general note if Iran "closes the strait of Hormuz" that involves aero-naval forces physically preventing any ships from entering or leaving. The task is then to the US Navy (and whoever else they can get to help them, possibly British, French and Indians) to "open" the strait by pretty much uninstalling the Iranian navy and air force, which wouldn't be too big of a problem.

Sooooo is the US economy unfixable or no? My rational mind says anything is fixable, but my panic switch says, “What, how?”

the us economy is fucked, not just because of oil though

is it fixable?

everything can be fixed. doesn't mean it will be

[Italios]

yeah exactly.

If Iran tries to close the strait and cut the price of oil further (or in fact in any situation) US could probably easily force the strait open again.

Would that cause a war? Is there any perceivable way to fix this?

it depends. in this situation, right now, closing the strait would actually be a positive because of the negative price of oil. it would inevitably cause a temporary but extremely high spike in the price, and at that point, iran would probably voluntarily reopen the strait for normal operations. bear in mind iran attacked the strait on a small scale oil prices spiked 20% (long before corona). think of it as every nation that's reliant on oil sales as a source of income would be incentivized to keep prices relatively stable, and as close to what they were pre-corona. iran can't really afford to have really low oil prices, or really high prices, so they'd probably be willing to set aside their differences and work with the framework corona presents.

in any other scenario, yes. if iran closed the strait to piss off the US (as they almost did because of soleimani's death) this would probably cause war. right now the US keeps the strait open using carefully coordinated cyberattacks that deter broader conflict. iran has openly stated that if the US conducts an actual military operation it would be a declaration of war.

additionally, the us would have to form some kind of coalition to take on iran for this sort of thing, with other western nations, probably asian nations would join in because a lot of their oil passes through there. iran would obviously perceive this as a very aggressive act.

[Luminesa]

Sooooo is the US economy unfixable or no? My rational mind says anything is fixable, but my panic switch says, “What, how?”

the us economy is fucked, not just because of oil though

is it fixable?

everything can be fixed. doesn't mean it will be

As long as it can be fixed.

[Luminesa]

Would that cause a war? Is there any perceivable way to fix this?

it depends. in this situation, right now, closing the strait would actually be a positive because of the negative price of oil. it would inevitably cause a temporary but extremely high spike in the price, and at that point, iran would probably voluntarily reopen the strait for normal operations. bear in mind iran attacked the strait on a small scale oil prices spiked 20% (long before corona). think of it as every nation that's reliant on oil sales as a source of income would be incentivized to keep prices relatively stable, and as close to what they were pre-corona. iran can't really afford to have really low oil prices, or really high prices, so they'd probably be willing to set aside their differences and work with the framework corona presents.

in any other scenario, yes. if iran closed the strait to piss off the US (as they almost did because of soleimani's death) this would probably cause war. right now the US keeps the strait open using carefully coordinated cyberattacks that deter broader conflict. iran has openly stated that if the US conducts an actual military operation it would be a declaration of war.

additionally, the us would have to form some kind of coalition to take on iran for this sort of thing, with other western nations, probably asian nations would join in because a lot of their oil passes through there. iran would obviously perceive this as a very aggressive act.

Maaaaaybe we can put aside our differences to save the global economy?

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

US can crush Iran on its own no problem

Getting other countries to help them just adds legitimacy

[Fahran]

My point wasn't that women are less religious than men. My point is that in western societies, religiosity and status no longer share a relationship. I guess you can say they're inverse or opposite, but we won't debate that, we'll just say there's no connection. Contrast to Islamic societies by which I mean countries where most people are Muslims, religion is still very high status. Most women are religious — so are most men.

My own theory is that the matter has rather little to do with status in and of itself. I believe women have stronger in-group biases more generally, even beyond the context of gender relations, and that this leads to women remaining more insular in social groups, whether those be religious, ethnic, or communal in nature. Thus, as atomization has occurred in the Americas and Europe, women have been less affected by the decline in religious observation than men. Men also seem more solitary on average than women, and that could play a role as well.

[Sundiata]

It's mostly a contradiction with a previous point you made. Christian women especially seem to be observant and active in their community.

The women of my church are truly the most radiant of roses.

[Hanafuridake]

Not trying to score political points from a pandemic but this whole train wreck shows the deep flaw of liberal individualism and social atomism in countries such as America. When people have "coronavirus parties," spit at police officers, and disobey orders which are meant to keep them from getting themselves or other people sick with a potentially fatal virus, something has gone seriously wrong with a society. There really needs to be some kind of serious conversation in the aftermath about how people need to see their place in society.

[Luminesa]

Not trying to score political points from a pandemic but this whole train wreck shows the deep flaw of liberal individualism and social atomism in countries such as America. When people have "coronavirus parties," spit at police officers, and disobey orders which are meant to keep them from getting themselves or other people sick with a potentially fatal virus, something has gone seriously wrong with a society. There really needs to be some kind of serious conversation in the aftermath about how people need to see their place in society.

Absolutely agree.

[Luminesa]

US can crush Iran on its own no problem

Getting other countries to help them just adds legitimacy

What are the chances of Israel jumping-in to help?

[United Muscovite Nations]

Look, it's time to say it:

The industrial revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.

[Italios]

i don't think it's really that simple.

the US is showing relative constrait in regards to hormuz. they justify their cyberoperations there, pretty strongly, as "we're protecting the global economy, by keeping oil supply steady and investor confidence high."

if we wanted to get rid of this constant threat of closure, we could have done it ages ago, but we didn't because we knew it would probably create a domino effect for every country that has ties to the region or oil (so every country). we could have seized the strait ages ago, it's not like we give a shit about """UNCLOS""" or """international law"""

a coalition would help and other countries would join, however, you have to account that iran is heavily backed by china.

feel free to disagree, that's my just my take.

[Italios]

US can crush Iran on its own no problem

Getting other countries to help them just adds legitimacy

What are the chances of Israel jumping-in to help?

israel is not a positive force in terms of solving diplomatic and military matters in the middle east. they would just add fuel to the fire.

[The South Falls]

Look, it's time to say it:

The industrial revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.

I don't know if remaining in an agrarian state would have improved things much.

[Sundiata]

Not trying to score political points from a pandemic but this whole train wreck shows the deep flaw of liberal individualism and social atomism in countries such as America. When people have "coronavirus parties," spit at police officers, and disobey orders which are meant to keep them from getting themselves or other people sick with a potentially fatal virus, something has gone seriously wrong with a society. There really needs to be some kind of serious conversation in the aftermath about how people need to see their place in society.

Yes.

Liberalism, including its Lockean classical variant which many "conservatives" claim to support has led many astray. The time is now for God, country, community, and family.

[Luminesa]

What are the chances of Israel jumping-in to help?

israel is not a positive force in terms of solving diplomatic and military matters in the middle east. they would just add fuel to the fire.

Mostly that was just my curiosity.

[The South Falls]

Not trying to score political points from a pandemic but this whole train wreck shows the deep flaw of liberal individualism and social atomism in countries such as America. When people have "coronavirus parties," spit at police officers, and disobey orders which are meant to keep them from getting themselves or other people sick with a potentially fatal virus, something has gone seriously wrong with a society. There really needs to be some kind of serious conversation in the aftermath about how people need to see their place in society.

Yes.

Liberalism, including its Lockean classical variant has led many astray. The time is now for God, country, community, and family.

How do we fix the issue then? It's hard to change the instilled values of a society, and communalistic societies are still subject to examples of human avarice and disregard of consequences that produce the coronavirus parties that we see. Repressing people who've been used to years of freedom produces a state that is ripe for rebellion and collapse.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

israel is not a positive force in terms of solving diplomatic and military matters in the middle east. they would just add fuel to the fire.

Mostly that was just my curiosity.

Israel wanted to be involved in 1991.

Arab countries made it clear that if Israel was involved, they'd pull their support for " KUWAIT "

US asked Israel not to become involved.

Israel had already bombed Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1988. Can't have anyone but us having nukes in the region hehe

Saddam knew all this and launched a strategic bombing campaign but with ballistic missiles against Israel throughout early 1991. He hoped Israel would enter the war and thus the alliance against him would be dissolved. Israel managed to stay out, but not before the Americans and British used a lot of special warfare assets to try to track down Iraq's ballistic missiles and put them out of action.

Against Iran, Israel would likely not be involved. The US needs diplomacy and in that case it needs Muslim countries to help it. As a rule muslim countries take the automatic opposite side to whatever side Israel is on.

[Sundiata]

Yes.

Liberalism, including its Lockean classical variant has led many astray. The time is now for God, country, community, and family.

How do we fix the issue then? It's hard to change the instilled values of a society, and communalistic societies are still subject to examples of human avarice and disregard of consequences that produce the coronavirus parties that we see. Repressing people who've been used to years of freedom produces a state that is ripe for rebellion and collapse.

Opus Dei.

It starts with Opus Dei. As more people seek God in the ordinary life, we must direct them away from the City of Man and towards the City of God. The big picture is a Christian economic agenda: distributism. Once this is realized, the living standards of the poorest will drastically rise. The first shall be last and the last shall be first.

[Novus America]

Look, it's time to say it:

The industrial revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race.

I don't know if remaining in an agrarian state would have improved things much.

It would not. Plagues were far worse before the industrial revolution. In the 1600s it would be more like: only a few hundred thousand dead? Okay, business as usual.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

i don't think it's really that simple.

the US is showing relative constrait in regards to hormuz. they justify their cyberoperations there, pretty strongly, as "we're protecting the global economy, by keeping oil supply steady and investor confidence high."

if we wanted to get rid of this constant threat of closure, we could have done it ages ago, but we didn't because we knew it would probably create a domino effect for every country that has ties to the region or oil (so every country). we could have seized the strait ages ago, it's not like we give a shit about """UNCLOS""" or """international law"""

a coalition would help and other countries would join, however, you have to account that iran is heavily backed by china.

feel free to disagree, that's my just my take.

Iraq 2 was a serious business thing man. The US does not have the political will to engage Iran without a casus belli in the aftermath of Iraq. Even though US media drums up a lot of commentary about Iran, US still hasn't got the political power to actively go out and destroy the Iranian military, even though the Iranian military is many times inferior to the US military.

The US can't expend that political power on that kind of activity when it doesn't need to. Iranians for the time being are ok with playing along. They have backing from Russians and Chinese. They are building their strength. Well, it is better to build slowly in peace than push too hard and see all your work destroyed. So I think in reality the uneasy peace between Iran and the US will continue. After all Iran and the US really have not that much against each other.

Now the problem is Saudis. The real enemy of Iran is Saudis. Saudi is scared bigly of Iran. Saudi even got Pakistan to agree to give them nuclear weapons in case Iran gets nuclear weapons. So we'll see what Saudis do. Saudis might force US to do whatever they want. Or, Saudis might fail and mess it up badly, because that is what they normally do (see: Yemen). We'll see.

[Luminesa]

Mostly that was just my curiosity.

Israel wanted to be involved in 1991.

Arab countries made it clear that if Israel was involved, they'd pull their support for " KUWAIT "

US asked Israel not to become involved.

Israel had already bombed Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1988. Can't have anyone but us having nukes in the region hehe

Saddam knew all this and launched a strategic bombing campaign but with ballistic missiles against Israel throughout early 1991. He hoped Israel would enter the war and thus the alliance against him would be dissolved. Israel managed to stay out, but not before the Americans and British used a lot of special warfare assets to try to track down Iraq's ballistic missiles and put them out of action.

Against Iran, Israel would likely not be involved. The US needs diplomacy and in that case it needs Muslim countries to help it. As a rule muslim countries take the automatic opposite side to whatever side Israel is on.

Soooooo are we gonna have Saudi Arabia help us orrrrr...

I can’t believe I said that, either. Yikes.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

Other way around, you will be helping Saudi Arabia. US is so addicted to oil it will send its sons to die so long as it gets access to it. Of course, US might have figured out how to make its own oil, in which case...

Byedi Arabia.

[Luminesa]

i don't think it's really that simple.

the US is showing relative constrait in regards to hormuz. they justify their cyberoperations there, pretty strongly, as "we're protecting the global economy, by keeping oil supply steady and investor confidence high."

if we wanted to get rid of this constant threat of closure, we could have done it ages ago, but we didn't because we knew it would probably create a domino effect for every country that has ties to the region or oil (so every country). we could have seized the strait ages ago, it's not like we give a shit about """UNCLOS""" or """international law"""

a coalition would help and other countries would join, however, you have to account that iran is heavily backed by china.

feel free to disagree, that's my just my take.

Iraq 2 was a serious business thing man. The US does not have the political will to engage Iran without a casus belli in the aftermath of Iraq. Even though US media drums up a lot of commentary about Iran, US still hasn't got the political power to actively go out and destroy the Iranian military, even though the Iranian military is many times inferior to the US military.

The US can't expend that political power on that kind of activity when it doesn't need to. Iranians for the time being are ok with playing along. They have backing from Russians and Chinese. They are building their strength. Well, it is better to build slowly in peace than push too hard and see all your work destroyed. So I think in reality the uneasy peace between Iran and the US will continue. After all Iran and the US really have not that much against each other.

Now the problem is Saudis. The real enemy of Iran is Saudis. Saudi is scared bigly of Iran. Saudi even got Pakistan to agree to give them nuclear weapons in case Iran gets nuclear weapons. So we'll see what Saudis do. Saudis might force US to do whatever they want. Or, Saudis might fail and mess it up badly, because that is what they normally do (see: Yemen). We'll see.

Given Iran has taken heavy losses up-top from the virus, they may not be keen on military action right now.