RWDT XX: The System Is Kapp Putsch

[Novus America]

if we napalm the middle east, push china farther away than it already is - and thus most the developing world - who is going to by our oil exports then?

it's never as simple as "we will just win the war!!!!" when it comes to things like oil... we have an healthy oil supply for ourselves, but you have to consider how the global market would react to a conflict over oil.

the worst day in modern history will be when american NS forms a super PAC.

The US is one of the only countries in the world that can disconnect itself from the global financial system and be OK.

Firstly its self sufficient in food by calorific production.

Secondly it has enough people that it can produce everything it needs for adequate distribution of labour. Internal system of regulating states mocks distribution of labour too.

Thirdly it has ridiculously good internal geography. Its mad, actually.

Our only real weakness (admittedly a huge one right now) is electronic imports.

Steel and aluminum are an issue, but we have plenty excess capacity and could easily ramp up production very quickly.

Much of what we import is crap that is not important like holiday decorations and toys.
Which we can survive without.

We are the biggest producer of food, oil and weapons and automobiles already.

We need to now start reducing our depends on foreign steel, aluminum (but again not that difficult neither is that labor intensive and we have the technology, excess capacity and raw materials) and the real key, electronics.

Which we have the technology, we design most of them.

But producing them is the key.

[Novus America]

The US is one of the only countries in the world that can disconnect itself from the global financial system and be OK.

Firstly its self sufficient in food by calorific production.

Secondly it has enough people that it can produce everything it needs for adequate distribution of labour. Internal system of regulating states mocks distribution of labour too.

Thirdly it has ridiculously good internal geography. Its mad, actually.

retreating in on ourselves would completely destroy what's left in our global heg, creating a vacuum that china can finally completely take advantage of.

Self sufficiency does not require retreating inward, in 1960 trade was a mere 9% of GDP and balanced. We were self sufficient AND still one of the two biggest players in the world.

[Italios]

the world was a lot different in 1960... 15 years after WWII, a lot of europe was still being rebuilt, and needed the US, which the heg very easy to maintain.

the US mostly was keeping communism in check. the USSR had its satellite states, but there wasn't the same danger of rando developing countries - that we currently rely on for technological production - cobalt, copper, iron, aluminum, etc - switching allegiances to the country its getting bankrolled by, as is happening right now with the BRI.

globalism means that self sufficiency is probably going to hurt your international soft power. for instance: our sanctioning china, is what's keeping them to partially in check to the best of our abilities, because we import enough that they feel the hurt of sanctioning.

rampant consumerism probably also means that we need to stay involved in international trade - yes, plastic christmas decorations have no intrinsic meaning, doesn't mean the average american wouldn't throw a fit over losing them.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

Your people are taking guns to the streets to protest about government measures to control the plague, if you take away their shitty plastic trinkets they will actually use their 2nd amendment and replace the government with an actual credit card company, rather than a credit card company called a government, which it is now.

[Luminesa]

the world was a lot different in 1960... 15 years after WWII, a lot of europe was still being rebuilt, and needed the US, which the heg very easy to maintain.

the US mostly was keeping communism in check. the USSR had its satellite states, but there wasn't the same danger of rando developing countries - that we currently rely on for technological production - cobalt, copper, iron, aluminum, etc - switching allegiances to the country its getting bankrolled by, as is happening right now with the BRI.

globalism means that self sufficiency is probably going to hurt your international soft power. for instance: our sanctioning china, is what's keeping them to partially in check to the best of our abilities, because we import enough that they feel the hurt of sanctioning.

rampant consumerism probably also means that we need to stay involved in international trade - yes, plastic christmas decorations have no intrinsic meaning, doesn't mean the average american wouldn't throw a fit over losing them.

I mean as far as Christmas ornaments go, I don’t have to buy them, we have all kinds of little personal ones that are like 20 years old.

[Luminesa]

Your people are taking guns to the streets to protest about government measures to control the plague, if you take away their shitty plastic trinkets they will actually use their 2nd amendment and replace the government with an actual credit card company, rather than a credit card company called a government, which it is now.

Those protestors need to be jailed. They are putting innocent peoples’ lives at risk. It’s insane.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

Your people are taking guns to the streets to protest about government measures to control the plague, if you take away their shitty plastic trinkets they will actually use their 2nd amendment and replace the government with an actual credit card company, rather than a credit card company called a government, which it is now.

Those protestors need to be jailed. They are putting innocent peoples’ lives at risk. It’s insane.

And then you will have another Waco.

Imagine a Waco in 2020 holy shit

[Novus America]

the world was a lot different in 1960... 15 years after WWII, a lot of europe was still being rebuilt, and needed the US, which the heg very easy to maintain.

the US mostly was keeping communism in check. the USSR had its satellite states, but there wasn't the same danger of rando developing countries - that we currently rely on for technological production - cobalt, copper, iron, aluminum, etc - switching allegiances to the country its getting bankrolled by, as is happening right now with the BRI.

globalism means that self sufficiency is probably going to hurt your international soft power. for instance: our sanctioning china, is what's keeping them to partially in check to the best of our abilities, because we import enough that they feel the hurt of sanctioning.

rampant consumerism probably also means that we need to stay involved in international trade - yes, plastic christmas decorations have no intrinsic meaning, doesn't mean the average american wouldn't throw a fit over losing them.

But again we are ALREADY the 6th most self sufficient country in the world!

But I am not saying we cut off all foreign trade, we can still import plastic Christmas decorations.
And export food because we have more than we know what to do with.

But we should become less reliant on foreign trade for essentials. Basically we should only import (at least from outside North America) things we can easily live without. Like Holiday decorations and shitty furniture (the good stuff is made here already).
And we can still export whatever we want.

So we still have a major place in the global market BUT IF things go totally to shit, we are not significantly hurt.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

Please do not export your shitty pork pumped full of water and plague to our country, or your fake corn sugar, or in fact any US food products.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

Actually that's a good point for the thread: What do you think of laws regulating the quality of animal products?

[Novus America]

Your people are taking guns to the streets to protest about government measures to control the plague, if you take away their shitty plastic trinkets they will actually use their 2nd amendment and replace the government with an actual credit card company, rather than a credit card company called a government, which it is now.

Well that is the thing. We can still import the shitty little trinkets. That is not a national security issue.

Not that they could really overthrow the government as long as the military stays loyal.

Howl much good is a shotgun agains a tank?

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

Your people are taking guns to the streets to protest about government measures to control the plague, if you take away their shitty plastic trinkets they will actually use their 2nd amendment and replace the government with an actual credit card company, rather than a credit card company called a government, which it is now.

Well that is the thing. We can still import the shitty little trinkets. That is not a national security issue.

Not that they could really overthrow the government as long as the military stays loyal.

Howl much good is a shotgun agains a tank?

I was being facetious

An armed uprising won't "beat" the US military, but it would succeed if the US military sides with it. Anyway that isn't the point.

US is conditioned to have the kind of economy it has now: buy all the shit you want whenever you want on your credit card. Ok, we have same system. But it's not good for anyone.

[Diopolis]

Would that cause a war? Is there any perceivable way to fix this?

it depends. in this situation, right now, closing the strait would actually be a positive because of the negative price of oil. it would inevitably cause a temporary but extremely high spike in the price, and at that point, iran would probably voluntarily reopen the strait for normal operations. bear in mind iran attacked the strait on a small scale oil prices spiked 20% (long before corona). think of it as every nation that's reliant on oil sales as a source of income would be incentivized to keep prices relatively stable, and as close to what they were pre-corona. iran can't really afford to have really low oil prices, or really high prices, so they'd probably be willing to set aside their differences and work with the framework corona presents.

in any other scenario, yes. if iran closed the strait to piss off the US (as they almost did because of soleimani's death) this would probably cause war. right now the US keeps the strait open using carefully coordinated cyberattacks that deter broader conflict. iran has openly stated that if the US conducts an actual military operation it would be a declaration of war.

additionally, the us would have to form some kind of coalition to take on iran for this sort of thing, with other western nations, probably asian nations would join in because a lot of their oil passes through there. iran would obviously perceive this as a very aggressive act.

Is Iran capable of doing anything right now, or is their entire government laid low with coronavirus(or just the ministry of health)?

[Italios]

you know what Novus - i'm going to change my position slightly, i believe we have peaked in terms of global dominance, and going forward our power is only going to go down, or at best stagnant. just type an iteration of "us loosing global power" to get a more nuanced explanation of what i'm talking about.

Actually that's a good point for the thread: What do you think of laws regulating the quality of animal products?

they're still probably pretty terrible in the US.

every so often, we are uncomfortably reminded that industrialized animal agriculture is somehow MORE disgusting than how our ancient ancestors lived alongside animals (as in, sharing houses with them)

we see this with: the jungle in the early 1900s, temple grandin's "humane" cattle slaughter, and mad cow disease/scabies, etc.

[Novus America]

Please do not export your shitty pork pumped full of water and plague to our country, or your fake corn sugar, or in fact any US food products.

You do not have to buy our food products if you do not want to. People in Africa and Asia will buy it up instead.

Many countries consume far more than they produce so they can buy it instead.
But again I would of course allow us to export pretty much anything to pretty much anyone besides our military stuff, which needs to be exported to allies or at least not enemies.

But becoming a large net exporter is not my goal at all.

I want us to have balanced trade, not export much more total than we import, nor import much more than we export.
Ideally I would say maybe 10% of GDP exports, 10% imports and those imports being the nonessential trinkets and crap. That people want but do not need.

[Diopolis]

I don't know if remaining in an agrarian state would have improved things much.

It would not. Plagues were far worse before the industrial revolution. In the 1600s it would be more like: only a few hundred thousand dead? Okay, business as usual.

The projected worst case scenario from chicom-19 is... an average year in the late 19th century.

[Italios]

you know what Novus - i'm going to change my position slightly, i believe we have peaked in terms of global dominance, and going forward our power is only going to go down, or at best stagnant. just type an iteration of "us loosing global power" to get a more nuanced explanation of what i'm talking about.

Actually that's a good point for the thread: What do you think of laws regulating the quality of animal products?

they're still probably pretty terrible in the US.

every so often, we are uncomfortably reminded that industrialized animal agriculture is somehow MORE disgusting than how our ancient ancestors lived alongside animals (as in, sharing houses with them)

we see this with: the jungle in the early 1900s, temple grandin's "humane" cattle slaughter, and mad cow disease/scabies, etc.

it depends. in this situation, right now, closing the strait would actually be a positive because of the negative price of oil. it would inevitably cause a temporary but extremely high spike in the price, and at that point, iran would probably voluntarily reopen the strait for normal operations. bear in mind iran attacked the strait on a small scale oil prices spiked 20% (long before corona). think of it as every nation that's reliant on oil sales as a source of income would be incentivized to keep prices relatively stable, and as close to what they were pre-corona. iran can't really afford to have really low oil prices, or really high prices, so they'd probably be willing to set aside their differences and work with the framework corona presents.

in any other scenario, yes. if iran closed the strait to piss off the US (as they almost did because of soleimani's death) this would probably cause war. right now the US keeps the strait open using carefully coordinated cyberattacks that deter broader conflict. iran has openly stated that if the US conducts an actual military operation it would be a declaration of war.

additionally, the us would have to form some kind of coalition to take on iran for this sort of thing, with other western nations, probably asian nations would join in because a lot of their oil passes through there. iran would obviously perceive this as a very aggressive act.

Is Iran capable of doing anything right now, or is their entire government laid low with coronavirus(or just the ministry of health)?

i have no idea of the inner workings of the iranian government, but i will reiterate if push comes to shove, iran has china and russia, and let's through iraq in there too, to combat the US.

[Sildorian Empire]

i have no idea of the inner workings of the iranian government, but i will reiterate if push comes to shove, iran has china and russia, and let's through iraq in there too, to combat the US.

Except Iran doesn't. Russia categorically doesn't involve itself in Iranian affairs outside of exploiting the IR's utter hatred for Iran to get more privileges and rights despite previous treaties (like what happened with the Caspian Sea earlier this year) and it has demonstrated its lack of fucks given by not backing the IR in previous near-military crises, while China's sphere of influence doesn't extent that far -provided it can be ensured that its right to plunder the Persian Gulf's fish as much as it wants will continue to be.

[Novus America]

Well that is the thing. We can still import the shitty little trinkets. That is not a national security issue.

Not that they could really overthrow the government as long as the military stays loyal.

Howl much good is a shotgun agains a tank?

I was being facetious

An armed uprising won't "beat" the US military, but it would succeed if the US military sides with it. Anyway that isn't the point.

US is conditioned to have the kind of economy it has now: buy all the shit you want whenever you want on your credit card. Ok, we have same system. But it's not good for anyone.

Well sure, but the good thing is much of the stuff we buy, we produce at home.
Oil, coal, food, guns, ammo, nice furniture, big vehicles. We already make all that here.

And like I said we can still import nonessential crap in exchange for our excess food and such.
So people can still buy the stuff they want.

And we cannot fix it overnight. The key is when doing tariffs and such slowly phase them in, say increase them 1% a month. People notice big sticker price increases, not incremental ones.

Although we are much better off than you are. Trade makes up 27% of our economy. It makes up 62% of yours.

So it would be easier for us to fix. But at least 38% of your economy is still internal. That is something. You can produce food, even oil. You have coal and iron ore. Your geographical position is much worse than ours, but much better than many places.

[Diopolis]

Actually that's a good point for the thread: What do you think of laws regulating the quality of animal products?

The quality of US food products is abysmal and underregulated. Our food contains a lot of harmful chemicals that are banned in other countries.
But, and this is the important part, the quality of unprocessed animal products isn't even in the top 10, or for that matter the top 10%, of our food quality issues.

[Novus America]

It would not. Plagues were far worse before the industrial revolution. In the 1600s it would be more like: only a few hundred thousand dead? Okay, business as usual.

The projected worst case scenario from chicom-19 is... an average year in the late 19th century.

Right, disease is much less a problem now.

[Luminesa]

Those protestors need to be jailed. They are putting innocent peoples’ lives at risk. It’s insane.

And then you will have another Waco.

Imagine a Waco in 2020 holy shit

Like the Branch Davidians? I mean yeah, that would be horrifying. But these people are breaking the law and putting our healthcare workers and essential workers in danger. They need to be stopped. Somehow.

[Novus America]

People might complain about sugar from corn, but we have little alternative. Unfortunately we do not have much good land for growing cane sugar.

Short of annexing Central America and the Caribbean we are stuck with corn mostly.

[Diopolis]

Well that is the thing. We can still import the shitty little trinkets. That is not a national security issue.

Not that they could really overthrow the government as long as the military stays loyal.

Howl much good is a shotgun agains a tank?

I was being facetious

An armed uprising won't "beat" the US military, but it would succeed if the US military sides with it. Anyway that isn't the point.

The existing record since Waco is the armed nuts and the government forces stare at each other for a while, the government gives the armed nuts what they want without firing a shot, arrests about half of them, and they get off on jury nullification.

[Luminesa]

Actually that's a good point for the thread: What do you think of laws regulating the quality of animal products?

Meh. The FDA is slow at everything, so the quality of your pork or chicken largely depends on the sellers. We’re slowly moving toward some environmental reforms, but I don’t know the scale of those reforms.