RWDT XX: The System Is Kapp Putsch

[Luminesa]

Other way around, you will be helping Saudi Arabia. US is so addicted to oil it will send its sons to die so long as it gets access to it. Of course, US might have figured out how to make its own oil, in which case...

Byedi Arabia.

If we can make our own oil would that help?

[Fahran]

US can crush Iran on its own no problem

Getting other countries to help them just adds legitimacy

What are the chances of Israel jumping-in to help?

We usually ask Israel to stay out of conflicts when we want the Arabs to join in on them. And a few of the Arab governments have been itching to BTFO Iran for about a decade at least.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

Other way around, you will be helping Saudi Arabia. US is so addicted to oil it will send its sons to die so long as it gets access to it. Of course, US might have figured out how to make its own oil, in which case...

Byedi Arabia.

If we can make our own oil would that help?

US is working big on shale, in fact recently I think you made some new discoveries. In which case you are free completely from Saudis. There's no special reason for you two to be friends.

[Cekoviu]

Other way around, you will be helping Saudi Arabia. US is so addicted to oil it will send its sons to die so long as it gets access to it. Of course, US might have figured out how to make its own oil, in which case...

Byedi Arabia.

If we can make our own oil would that help?

a u t a r k i s t g a n g

[Fahran]

If we can make our own oil would that help?

We do produce a decent portion of our own oil and oil prices are down at the moment. We should also note that Iran needs to be able to sell its oil to keep its economy from collapsing. An economic collapse at this juncture might well lead to a government collapse given how badly previous economic woes have played with the Iranian public.

[Novus America]

Yes.

Liberalism, including its Lockean classical variant has led many astray. The time is now for God, country, community, and family.

How do we fix the issue then? It's hard to change the instilled values of a society, and communalistic societies are still subject to examples of human avarice and disregard of consequences that produce the coronavirus parties that we see. Repressing people who've been used to years of freedom produces a state that is ripe for rebellion and collapse.

Rebuild the National Guard to lol huge size, increase troop levels generally, bring back national service (but with some alternative options, not just military).
That alone would help a lot.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

There are only five countries on earth who have offensive weapons. Those are United States, Russia, China, Great Britain and France. Even Indians aren't at this stage yet. These five countries have the power to threaten any other country in the world, more or less without reprisal. Iran is not one of those countries. Iran has no means to threaten the United States offensively.

[Luminesa]

If we can make our own oil would that help?

We do produce a decent portion of our own oil and oil prices are down at the moment. We should also note that Iran needs to be able to sell its oil to keep its economy from collapsing. An economic collapse at this juncture might well lead to a government collapse given how badly previous economic woes have played with the Iranian public.

Iran was teetering on that edge in January, I can’t imagine what they’re thinking right now.

[Luminesa]

If we can make our own oil would that help?

US is working big on shale, in fact recently I think you made some new discoveries. In which case you are free completely from Saudis. There's no special reason for you two to be friends.

How would that help our economy, though? I hope you don’t mind all the questions. I’m not an expert on matters relating to money. Or oil. Or the economy. :/

[Italios]

i don't think it's really that simple.

the US is showing relative constrait in regards to hormuz. they justify their cyberoperations there, pretty strongly, as "we're protecting the global economy, by keeping oil supply steady and investor confidence high."

if we wanted to get rid of this constant threat of closure, we could have done it ages ago, but we didn't because we knew it would probably create a domino effect for every country that has ties to the region or oil (so every country). we could have seized the strait ages ago, it's not like we give a shit about """UNCLOS""" or """international law"""

a coalition would help and other countries would join, however, you have to account that iran is heavily backed by china.

feel free to disagree, that's my just my take.

Iraq 2 was a serious business thing man. The US does not have the political will to engage Iran without a casus belli in the aftermath of Iraq. Even though US media drums up a lot of commentary about Iran, US still hasn't got the political power to actively go out and destroy the Iranian military, even though the Iranian military is many times inferior to the US military.

The US can't expend that political power on that kind of activity when it doesn't need to. Iranians for the time being are ok with playing along. They have backing from Russians and Chinese. They are building their strength. Well, it is better to build slowly in peace than push too hard and see all your work destroyed. So I think in reality the uneasy peace between Iran and the US will continue. After all Iran and the US really have not that much against each other.

Now the problem is Saudis. The real enemy of Iran is Saudis. Saudi is scared bigly of Iran. Saudi even got Pakistan to agree to give them nuclear weapons in case Iran gets nuclear weapons. So we'll see what Saudis do. Saudis might force US to do whatever they want. Or, Saudis might fail and mess it up badly, because that is what they normally do (see: Yemen). We'll see.

i get what you're saying but does this refute what i'm saying? i'm saying the us is showing restraint to avoid all out conflict that would upset the market of what is already the world's most volatile commodity, you say iran can't expend political power on iran, so we both agree war there would be messy for both for the US? i'm confused.

i don't think the saudis could force the US to do anything the US didn't actively want to do. in regards to Yemen - the US is bankrolling SA's involvement there, to the point where experts postulate that by cutting arms sales there, the SA airforce would be grounded the same day. i don't think SA has leverage over the US, it's the other way around.

yes, the US mil is addicted to oil in the same way a US junkie is addicted to opiates... but as i already said, we have our own (increasing) oil supplies and could probably bully OPEC into picking up the oil slack if on the VERY off chance SA goes brazy in regards to iran.

Other way around, you will be helping Saudi Arabia. US is so addicted to oil it will send its sons to die so long as it gets access to it. Of course, US might have figured out how to make its own oil, in which case...

Byedi Arabia.

If we can make our own oil would that help?

we already do, we also live right next to canada which has a ton of oil, and i wouldn't put it past mr. trump to do something mad sus to get venezuela's oil.

[Italios]

There are only five countries on earth who have offensive weapons. Those are United States, Russia, China, Great Britain and France. Even Indians aren't at this stage yet. These five countries have the power to threaten any other country in the world, more or less without reprisal. Iran is not one of those countries. Iran has no means to threaten the United States offensively.

russia and china are huge backers of iran, russia will obviously hop in the conflict willingly to control US heg and china will also play the offensive because the middle east is strategically important to them (through the BRI, obviously russia wants its hands on the middle east too but china is actively trying its hand atn neo-imperialism there) don't deny war is a possibility, i just think it would be very very messy for everyone involved.

[Novus America]

Other way around, you will be helping Saudi Arabia. US is so addicted to oil it will send its sons to die so long as it gets access to it. Of course, US might have figured out how to make its own oil, in which case...

Byedi Arabia.

Actually the US is the world’s biggest oil producer.
“In 2019, U.S. net imports (imports minus exports) of petroleum from foreign countries averaged about 0.53 million barrels per day, equal to about 2.7% of average daily U.S. petroleum consumption. This was the lowest percentage since 1949, the first year for which the U.S. Energy Information Administration has historical data.”

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=32&t=6

Actually our biggest suppliers are Mexico and Canada, who make up the majority of our imports.

We do not keep the Saudis around for oil, but because if they fell it would be ISIS dialed up to 11.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

US is working big on shale, in fact recently I think you made some new discoveries. In which case you are free completely from Saudis. There's no special reason for you two to be friends.

How would that help our economy, though? I hope you don’t mind all the questions. I’m not an expert on matters relating to money. Or oil. Or the economy. :/

Goods that you buy from abroad have to be paid for by exports, or the imbalance (which is called current account deficit, and in news you will have heard as trade deficit) is made up for by debt or by liquidation of assets.

Its not intelligent to compare your household finance to a country, but imagine that your income is $1,000 and your spending is $1,200. You can either take out $200pm on your credit card or start to sell things you own, like your family heirlooms, to pay for the difference.

So in that sense it will help your economy, but it's not like a huge bonus. The main bonus is strategic. If you are independent in your oil supply then you cant't be threatened by other countries. In 1973 OPEC embargo'd the west (including US) over Israel and the price of oil skyrocketed and it caused havoc in the US. With an independent oil supply you'd avoid that potential problem.

[Sildorian Empire]

What are the chances of Israel jumping-in to help?

We usually ask Israel to stay out of conflicts when we want the Arabs to join in on them. And a few of the Arab governments have been itching to BTFO Iran for about a decade at least.

It helps that Israel's been using the IR's natural charisma and capability to piss off every neighbor they have that isn't a puppet in every way to make friends. It's likely Arabs won't leave if Israel joins in a possible war with the IR. At least not to the degree they might have back in the first Iraq War.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

Other way around, you will be helping Saudi Arabia. US is so addicted to oil it will send its sons to die so long as it gets access to it. Of course, US might have figured out how to make its own oil, in which case...

Byedi Arabia.

Actually the US is the world’s biggest oil producer.
“In 2019, U.S. net imports (imports minus exports) of petroleum from foreign countries averaged about 0.53 million barrels per day, equal to about 2.7% of average daily U.S. petroleum consumption. This was the lowest percentage since 1949, the first year for which the U.S. Energy Information Administration has historical data.”

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=32&t=6

Actually our biggest suppliers are Mexico and Canada, who make up the majority of our imports.

We do not keep the Saudis around for oil, but because if they fell it would be ISIS dialed up to 11.

Yeah its already happening. But it wasn't always, for most of 90s and 00s. The trend for US to be a net exporter is very recent.

[Luminesa]

How would that help our economy, though? I hope you don’t mind all the questions. I’m not an expert on matters relating to money. Or oil. Or the economy. :/

Goods that you buy from abroad have to be paid for by exports, or the imbalance (which is called current account deficit, and in news you will have heard as trade deficit) is made up for by debt or by liquidation of assets.

Its not intelligent to compare your household finance to a country, but imagine that your income is $1,000 and your spending is $1,200. You can either take out $200pm on your credit card or start to sell things you own, like your family heirlooms, to pay for the difference.

So in that sense it will help your economy, but it's not like a huge bonus. The main bonus is strategic. If you are independent in your oil supply then you cant't be threatened by other countries. In 1973 OPEC embargo'd the west (including US) over Israel and the price of oil skyrocketed and it caused havoc in the US. With an independent oil supply you'd avoid that potential problem.

Any help is definitely a good thing.

[Novus America]

Other way around, you will be helping Saudi Arabia. US is so addicted to oil it will send its sons to die so long as it gets access to it. Of course, US might have figured out how to make its own oil, in which case...

Byedi Arabia.

If we can make our own oil would that help?

We do. Net imports only make up 2.7% of our consumption, and our biggest suppliers are Canada and Mexico. North America can survive fine without foreign oil.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

Yeah that's all fairly recent though.

[Novus America]

Actually the US is the world’s biggest oil producer.
“In 2019, U.S. net imports (imports minus exports) of petroleum from foreign countries averaged about 0.53 million barrels per day, equal to about 2.7% of average daily U.S. petroleum consumption. This was the lowest percentage since 1949, the first year for which the U.S. Energy Information Administration has historical data.”

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=32&t=6

Actually our biggest suppliers are Mexico and Canada, who make up the majority of our imports.

We do not keep the Saudis around for oil, but because if they fell it would be ISIS dialed up to 11.

Yeah its already happening. But it wasn't always, for most of 90s and 00s. The trend for US to be a net exporter is very recent.

Oh that is true. The situation was very different just a decade ago. But actually oil is no longer a problem for us.
We have all we need.
Oil now is our actually one of our biggest strengths.

We are bigger the Saudi Arabia. We are number 1. Biggest producer and have the biggest refinery complex.
And we effectively control Canada’s oil exports completely (literally 99% goes through us).

Actually if there is a big oil war we come out on top.

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

Mmm.

The point isn't ultimately who has all the oil. Countries integrated into the global financial system benefit from free trade in oil and even if US is number one, wealth is dispersed amongst the investor class in all countries anyway. Everyone needs oil.

The question is in a conflict, who can strike at whose oil infrastructure: the fields, the terminals, the refineries. The US can turn off oil production in any country in the world other than Russia or China and it could likely prevent those countries from serious international trade in oil (which is why they're rushing pipeline construction.)

Nobody can strike the US oil infrastructure. Where they can strike it locally (ie by closing Hormuz) the US can depend on domestic production. It can dump surplus on intact parts of the world to recover some export $ while it fixes its problem. Just Hegemon things.

[Italios]

Yeah its already happening. But it wasn't always, for most of 90s and 00s. The trend for US to be a net exporter is very recent.

Oh that is true. The situation was very different just a decade ago. But actually oil is no longer a problem for us.
We have all we need.
Oil now is our actually one of our biggest strengths.

We are bigger the Saudi Arabia. We are number 1. Biggest producer and have the biggest refinery complex.
And we effectively control Canada’s oil exports completely (literally 99% goes through us).

Actually if there is a big oil war we come out on top.

if we napalm the middle east, push china farther away than it already is - and thus most the developing world - who is going to by our oil exports then?

it's never as simple as "we will just win the war!!!!" when it comes to things like oil... we have an healthy oil supply for ourselves, but you have to consider how the global market would react to a conflict over oil.

the worst day in modern history will be when american NS forms a super PAC.

[Novus America]

Yeah that's all fairly recent though.

Very recent. But we are top dog now.
Actually it might be counterintuitive but the US is actually one of the most self sufficient major economies.
We are the 6th most self sufficient country in the world.

But that is not enough we should be #1.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... -GDP_ratio

[Questarian New Yorkshire]

Oh that is true. The situation was very different just a decade ago. But actually oil is no longer a problem for us.
We have all we need.
Oil now is our actually one of our biggest strengths.

We are bigger the Saudi Arabia. We are number 1. Biggest producer and have the biggest refinery complex.
And we effectively control Canada’s oil exports completely (literally 99% goes through us).

Actually if there is a big oil war we come out on top.

if we napalm the middle east, push china farther away than it already is - and thus most the developing world - who is going to by our oil exports then?

it's never as simple as "we will just win the war!!!!" when it comes to things like oil... we have an healthy oil supply for ourselves, but you have to consider how the global market would react to a conflict over oil.

the worst day in modern history will be when american NS forms a super PAC.

The US is one of the only countries in the world that can disconnect itself from the global financial system and be OK.

Firstly its self sufficient in food by calorific production.

Secondly it has enough people that it can produce everything it needs for adequate distribution of labour. Internal system of regulating states mocks distribution of labour too.

Thirdly it has ridiculously good internal geography. Its mad, actually.

[Novus America]

Oh that is true. The situation was very different just a decade ago. But actually oil is no longer a problem for us.
We have all we need.
Oil now is our actually one of our biggest strengths.

We are bigger the Saudi Arabia. We are number 1. Biggest producer and have the biggest refinery complex.
And we effectively control Canada’s oil exports completely (literally 99% goes through us).

Actually if there is a big oil war we come out on top.

if we napalm the middle east, push china farther away than it already is - and thus most the developing world - who is going to by our oil exports then?

it's never as simple as "we will just win the war!!!!" when it comes to things like oil... we have an healthy oil supply for ourselves, but you have to consider how the global market would react to a conflict over oil.

the worst day in modern history will be when american NS forms a super PAC.

But we do not need to export. Most of what we produce we consume.
We do not need anyone to buy it besides ourselves.

That is the point. We can survive. Meanwhile the PRC would have their economy collapse because of a shortage of oil.

I am not saying we should burn the Middle East. Just saying if it burns we will be the amongst the least harmed.

[Italios]

if we napalm the middle east, push china farther away than it already is - and thus most the developing world - who is going to by our oil exports then?

it's never as simple as "we will just win the war!!!!" when it comes to things like oil... we have an healthy oil supply for ourselves, but you have to consider how the global market would react to a conflict over oil.

the worst day in modern history will be when american NS forms a super PAC.

The US is one of the only countries in the world that can disconnect itself from the global financial system and be OK.

Firstly its self sufficient in food by calorific production.

Secondly it has enough people that it can produce everything it needs for adequate distribution of labour. Internal system of regulating states mocks distribution of labour too.

Thirdly it has ridiculously good internal geography. Its mad, actually.

retreating in on ourselves would completely destroy what's left in our global heg, creating a vacuum that china can finally completely take advantage of.