Coronavirus Thread III: The Show Must Not Go On (READ OP)

[San Lumen]

Did you read Stiglitz? Or are you responding to San Lumen's very narrow summary of part of it?



There will be further emergency measures, if you mean spending.

I was mocking Pelosi saying we did not need further measures a week or two ago. Regarding San Lumen obviously I read it, taking a doom sayer at his word is retarded. I think Mr. Stiglitz is being rather optimistic in light of Fed data. It should have been big name left leaning economist attacks Trump. It really wasn't news.

How is not news? The man is one of the most renowned economists in the world. We should heed what he has to say

[Nakena]

OK, so this one definitely is good news, but is going to need some explaining:

We have multiple virulence reducing RNA deletions confirmed in the virus. Now, these variants aren't going to magically solve the problem - they're all less able to spread than the variants that they're mutations of. However, this is a big deal for a few reasons:

1. Given how little testing we've done for these things, this strongly suggests that there are a lot of these kinds of deletions out there. That is: we're rolling the dice lots of times.
2. Deletions don't undo themselves: RNA (unlike DNA) simply has no mechanism for correcting for gene deletions (there isn't a second copy available to re-construct it from), so these deletions will hang around, and potentially stack with more such deletions. That is: these dice stack.

Those two combine to mean that the odds of what I'm going to say below aren't as tiny as you might thing.

3. None of these examples have any effect on immune response. That is: if you're immune to one, you're immune to all of them.
4. If we isolate a reliably non-lethal variant of the virus, we have a new exit strategy (other than natural herd immunity, vaccination, or (local) eradication): variolation. Given a version of the virus that consistently doesn't kill people (and preferably consistently doesn't make them significantly ill), we could intentionally spread it through the (low-risk) population, therefore getting herd immunity without ever having to have the lethal version of the virus spread.

Now, this isn't guaranteed by any means (it's honestly relatively unlikely, even given points 1 and 2), and there's essentially nothing that we can do to speed it up (other than making sure that we're checking the RNA of as many different virus samples as possible for deletions, so that we don't miss them when they do happen), but it's an extra set of dice to roll, along with all of the vaccine candidates.

There's also evidence that it's becoming less deadly over time.

Thanks that was an very interesting read, as always much appriciated.

[The East Marches II]

No need, they'll be made to pay by an enraged electorate :^)

I hope you're excited for 2020. I sure am!

Aw, that's cute. You think I have some attachment to Chuck and Nancy.

One would assume given your total lack of understanding how normies live from your privileged bubble. It's nice to see you are more than you appear!

[Jolthig]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

For sure. No doubt about that. The data on this is quite comparable to the great depression. If not, much worse.

[Loben The 2nd]

A little hardship goes a long way, maybe some good will come out it.

Yeah the 1930s were such wonderful times

Certainly, and what happens after I’m sure will be an exciting time.

[Samudera Darussalam]

I was mocking Pelosi saying we did not need further measures a week or two ago. Regarding San Lumen obviously I read it, taking a doom sayer at his word is retarded. I think Mr. Stiglitz is being rather optimistic in light of Fed data. It should have been big name left leaning economist attacks Trump. It really wasn't news.

How is not news? The man is one of the most renowned economists in the world. We should heed what he has to say

*sighs*

Humour me for a second. If, and if, somebody else who is also famous in the economics is saying the contrary, would you heed it too?

[The East Marches II]

I was mocking Pelosi saying we did not need further measures a week or two ago. Regarding San Lumen obviously I read it, taking a doom sayer at his word is retarded. I think Mr. Stiglitz is being rather optimistic in light of Fed data. It should have been big name left leaning economist attacks Trump. It really wasn't news.

How is not news? The man is one of the most renowned economists in the world. We should heed what he has to say

Because he is late to the game and is saying what has already been said? It's lame and boring. And I certainly don't think he'd agree with your insane position.

[Valrifell]

Aw, that's cute. You think I have some attachment to Chuck and Nancy.

One would assume given your total lack of understanding how normies live from your privileged bubble. It's nice to see you are more than you appear!

Is my mere presence so agitating that you feel the need to launch such accusations by default?

[San Lumen]

How is not news? The man is one of the most renowned economists in the world. We should heed what he has to say

Because he is late to the game and is saying what has already been said? It's lame and boring. And I certainly don't think he'd agree with your insane position.

What position Is that?

[The East Marches II]

Because he is late to the game and is saying what has already been said? It's lame and boring. And I certainly don't think he'd agree with your insane position.

What position Is that?

Let Grandpa die so the stonks like goes up

[The East Marches II]

One would assume given your total lack of understanding how normies live from your privileged bubble. It's nice to see you are more than you appear!

Is my mere presence so agitating that you feel the need to launch such accusations by default?

Not at all. I was pleasantly surprised. You should be glad for the compliment!

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Did you read Stiglitz? Or are you responding to San Lumen's very narrow summary of part of it?



There will be further emergency measures, if you mean spending.

I was mocking Pelosi saying we did not need further measures a week or two ago. Regarding San Lumen obviously I read it, taking a doom sayer at his word is retarded. I think Mr. Stiglitz is being rather optimistic in light of Fed data. It should have been big name left leaning economist attacks Trump. It really wasn't news.

I called it a polemic, because it makes no pretence of academic objectivity. It's an opinion piece, but it makes some good points:

Stiglitz said Republicans had opposed proposals to give those affected by coronavirus 10 days’ sick leave, meaning many employees were going to work even while infected. “The Republicans said no because they said it would set a bad precedent. It is literally unbelievable.”

Can't have the government pay employees' sick pay, just to keep them from going to work sick. Fuck no, that would set a bad precedent.

Next time it might be something even more infectious and even more deadly. And people will be saying "you did it for covid, why not for x flu?". What a terrible precedent!

[San Lumen]

What position Is that?

Let Grandpa die so the stonks like goes up

Never said that. What I have said is keep lockdowns to long and you’ll do more harm than the virus itself but keep twisting my words

[The East Marches II]

I was mocking Pelosi saying we did not need further measures a week or two ago. Regarding San Lumen obviously I read it, taking a doom sayer at his word is retarded. I think Mr. Stiglitz is being rather optimistic in light of Fed data. It should have been big name left leaning economist attacks Trump. It really wasn't news.

I called it a polemic, because it makes no pretence of academic objectivity. It's an opinion piece, but it makes some good points:

Stiglitz said Republicans had opposed proposals to give those affected by coronavirus 10 days’ sick leave, meaning many employees were going to work even while infected. “The Republicans said no because they said it would set a bad precedent. It is literally unbelievable.”

Can't have the government pay employees' sick pay, just to keep them from going to work sick. Fuck no, that would set a bad precedent.

Next time it might be something even more infectious and even more deadly. And people will be saying "you did it for covid, why not for x flu?". What a terrible precedent!

You may not keep up on American news but the original plan was $1000-$2000 a month for everyone under a million aka the Munchin plan. The sick leave nonsense was dismissed for being a half measure, because it is. So we got politicians fighting the last war while trying to implement means testing and bureaucracy for ideological reasons. Both sides later compromised on bailouts for their friends plus token sick leave and an ersatz ramshackle m4a system at the moment. We deserve our fate.

[Rojava Free State]

OK, so this one definitely is good news, but is going to need some explaining:

We have multiple virulence reducing RNA deletions confirmed in the virus. Now, these variants aren't going to magically solve the problem - they're all less able to spread than the variants that they're mutations of. However, this is a big deal for a few reasons:

1. Given how little testing we've done for these things, this strongly suggests that there are a lot of these kinds of deletions out there. That is: we're rolling the dice lots of times.
2. Deletions don't undo themselves: RNA (unlike DNA) simply has no mechanism for correcting for gene deletions (there isn't a second copy available to re-construct it from), so these deletions will hang around, and potentially stack with more such deletions. That is: these dice stack.

Those two combine to mean that the odds of what I'm going to say below aren't as tiny as you might thing.

3. None of these examples have any effect on immune response. That is: if you're immune to one, you're immune to all of them.
4. If we isolate a reliably non-lethal variant of the virus, we have a new exit strategy (other than natural herd immunity, vaccination, or (local) eradication): variolation. Given a version of the virus that consistently doesn't kill people (and preferably consistently doesn't make them significantly ill), we could intentionally spread it through the (low-risk) population, therefore getting herd immunity without ever having to have the lethal version of the virus spread.

Now, this isn't guaranteed by any means (it's honestly relatively unlikely, even given points 1 and 2), and there's essentially nothing that we can do to speed it up (other than making sure that we're checking the RNA of as many different virus samples as possible for deletions, so that we don't miss them when they do happen), but it's an extra set of dice to roll, along with all of the vaccine candidates.

There's also evidence that it's [url=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.16.20037259v1]becoming less deadly over time.

Most viruses evolve to become less deadly. It makes it easier for them to spread.

[The East Marches II]

Let Grandpa die so the stonks like goes up

Never said that. What I have said is keep lockdowns to long and you’ll do more harm than the virus itself but keep twisting my words

I distinctly remember you moaning about the stonks and the performing arts industry. Maybe if you presented your ideas in a coherent manner, they might be taken seriously. Like say pointing out the health effects of unemployment on a community. Instead you whine to illustrate your position. Stonks for Grandpa. Very lame.

[Nakena]

One would assume given your total lack of understanding how normies live from your privileged bubble. It's nice to see you are more than you appear!

Is my mere presence so agitating that you feel the need to launch such accusations by default?

Did I miss something?

[Loben The 2nd]

I called it a polemic, because it makes no pretence of academic objectivity. It's an opinion piece, but it makes some good points:



Can't have the government pay employees' sick pay, just to keep them from going to work sick. Fuck no, that would set a bad precedent.

Next time it might be something even more infectious and even more deadly. And people will be saying "you did it for covid, why not for x flu?". What a terrible precedent!

You may not keep up on American news but the original plan was $1000-$2000 a month for everyone under a million aka the Munchin plan. The sick leave nonsense was dismissed for being a half measure, because it is. So we got politicians fighting the last war while trying to implement means testing and bureaucracy for ideological reasons. Both sides later compromised on bailouts for their friends plus token sick leave and an ersatz ramshackle m4a system at the moment. We deserve our fate.

This country is no longer worth saving, it is now high time that the youth throw themselves into the crucible in order to bring about something new.

There must be no shortage of young men and women willing to put up with the labor pains of nation building.

[San Lumen]

Never said that. What I have said is keep lockdowns to long and you’ll do more harm than the virus itself but keep twisting my words

I distinctly remember you moaning about the stonks and the performing arts industry. Maybe if you presented your ideas in a coherent manner, they might be taken seriously. Like say pointing out the health effects of unemployment on a community. Instead you whine to illustrate your position. Stonks for Grandpa. Very lame.

Unemployment and lack of social interaction does have a serious effect on health both mentally and physically

[Valrifell]

Is my mere presence so agitating that you feel the need to launch such accusations by default?

Did I miss something?

Nope.

[Valrifell]

You may not keep up on American news but the original plan was $1000-$2000 a month for everyone under a million aka the Munchin plan. The sick leave nonsense was dismissed for being a half measure, because it is. So we got politicians fighting the last war while trying to implement means testing and bureaucracy for ideological reasons. Both sides later compromised on bailouts for their friends plus token sick leave and an ersatz ramshackle m4a system at the moment. We deserve our fate.

This country is no longer worth saving, it is now high time that the youth throw themselves into the crucible in order to bring about something new.

There must be no shortage of young men and women willing to put up with the labor pains of nation building.

I call dibs on leading the ashes of the post-apocalyptic remnant. None of you can have it, I just called dibs.

Ha.

[Loben The 2nd]

I distinctly remember you moaning about the stonks and the performing arts industry. Maybe if you presented your ideas in a coherent manner, they might be taken seriously. Like say pointing out the health effects of unemployment on a community. Instead you whine to illustrate your position. Stonks for Grandpa. Very lame.

Unemployment and lack of social interaction does have a serious effect on health both mentally and physically

Here I thought that unemployment was the future.

[The East Marches II]

Mr. Stiglitz isn't wrong that our response has been like a Third World Country. We don't make anything anymore. It is no wonder! We can't even supply our masks. The virus did us the courtesy of exposing our position for what it is.

[Knask]

The mayor of Las Vegas says she offered up her city as a control group to see what would happen if they did nothing and had no social distancing guidelines in place, but was turned down by cowardly bureaucrats and gutless career politicians. I think the inhabitants of Las Vegas should be proud of having a mayor volunteer them like that without wasting time on drawn-out hearings and the like.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/22/top-economist-us-coronavirus-response-like-third-world-country-joseph-stiglitz-donald-trump

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US response has been like that of a third world country and that we are on course for a second Great Depression. He says food banks are well past supplies, food stamps will hit an all time record and unemployment will soon be higher than the 1930s

For sure. No doubt about that. The data on this is quite comparable to the great depression. If not, much worse.

The cause matters a lot. In the Great Depression, the economy caught a disease and was sick for years. This is more like a medically induced coma. The parts of the economy dying or already dead were quite deliberately non-essential, and they will grow back pretty quick.

At least I hope so. I'm a bit worried about private sector debt. I'm not looking it up now, because I've got to sleep and don't want bad dreams.