Coronavirus Thread III: The Show Must Not Go On (READ OP)

[Diahon]

the advantages of an authoritarian regime are usually made irrelevant by the fact that those who seek that sort of power for themselves are usually the fucking worst

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Hmm. Is that analysis based on all countries, all countries with good data, or just your guess based on HK and Singapore?

'cos I'm looking at infections per capita and seeing a bunch of Western democracies ahead of Singapore ...

Singapore screwed up because they house migrant workers in large dormitories and basically ignored them. They also didn't bother wearing masks.

Taiwan and HK took to wearing masks immediately. Taiwan is helped by being about the largest manufacturer's of masks and HK simply ignored their government who said they weren't necessary. Taiwan closed its borders to China immediately and the HK medical community had to go on strike to force the HK government to do the same.

Actually Macau should get credit for similar.

Look at Brazil, Russia, China, USA.. lol.. in Uzbekistan they went so far in their denial they arrested anyone wearing a mask.. though god knows we'll never know how they're coping.

Actually look at progressive countries with female leaders and you're pretty much looking at well-managed responses.

You glossed over your claim that the more dictatorial a country, the worse it is coping.

Now you've given me another claim, "progressive countries with female leaders" are managing well.

See I would never make such a claim, since different countries have different advantages and weaknesses and are at all different stages. For that matter, not all "lockdowns" are the same. And they're not all equally well observed by the populace.

I'm not saying it's futile to make comparisons. Just that I wouldn't draw big binary distinctions from those comparisons.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

the advantages of an authoritarian regime are usually made irrelevant by the fact that those who seek that sort of power for themselves are usually the fucking worst

But muh Kim Jo-yong!

[Gormwood]

the advantages of an authoritarian regime are usually made irrelevant by the fact that those who seek that sort of power for themselves are usually the fucking worst

But muh Kim Jo-yong!

The definition of disappointed: A weeb asking her for a blowjob and she has him tied to the barrel of a loaded AA gun.

[Bombadil]

Singapore screwed up because they house migrant workers in large dormitories and basically ignored them. They also didn't bother wearing masks.

Taiwan and HK took to wearing masks immediately. Taiwan is helped by being about the largest manufacturer's of masks and HK simply ignored their government who said they weren't necessary. Taiwan closed its borders to China immediately and the HK medical community had to go on strike to force the HK government to do the same.

Actually Macau should get credit for similar.

Look at Brazil, Russia, China, USA.. lol.. in Uzbekistan they went so far in their denial they arrested anyone wearing a mask.. though god knows we'll never know how they're coping.

Actually look at progressive countries with female leaders and you're pretty much looking at well-managed responses.

You glossed over your claim that the more dictatorial a country, the worse it is coping.

Now you've given me another claim, "progressive countries with female leaders" are managing well.

See I would never make such a claim, since different countries have different advantages and weaknesses and are at all different stages. For that matter, not all "lockdowns" are the same. And they're not all equally well observed by the populace.

I'm not saying it's futile to make comparisons. Just that I wouldn't draw big binary distinctions from those comparisons.

Well given I never used the word 'dictatorial' it's a little moot to discuss that claim.

Generally I'd say the best responses roughly accord with..

a. Countries bordering China - they went through SARS and know to immediately distrust any claims from China. SK got hit by a religious group and Japan by a cruise ship but otherwise, mostly done pretty well, even little Vietnam managed it pretty well.
b. Progressive nations with female leaders - some crossover - Tsai Ing-wen for example, but Denmark, NZ, even Germany under Merkel to a degree - certainly in the calm measured and informative way they spoke to the nation
c. Unlucky countries like Italy, Spain and France, they messaged pretty well but got hit hard out of complacency and/or bad luck.
d. Authoritarian inclined leaders - poor coordination, poor messaging, dumb claims, even lightly right-wing leaders like Boris Johnson was so dumb as to actually catch the virus..

It's not a perfect or absolute correlation but in terms of handling there's

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

Hmm. Is that analysis based on all countries, all countries with good data, or just your guess based on HK and Singapore?

'cos I'm looking at infections per capita and seeing a bunch of Western democracies ahead of Singapore ...

Singapore screwed up because they house migrant workers in large dormitories and basically ignored them. They also didn't bother wearing masks.

Taiwan and HK took to wearing masks immediately. Taiwan is helped by being about the largest manufacturer's of masks and HK simply ignored their government who said they weren't necessary. Taiwan closed its borders to China immediately and the HK medical community had to go on strike to force the HK government to do the same.

Actually Macau should get credit for similar.

Look at Brazil, Russia, China, USA.. lol.. in Uzbekistan they went so far in their denial they arrested anyone wearing a mask.. though god knows we'll never know how they're coping.

Actually look at progressive countries with female leaders and you're pretty much looking at well-managed responses.

EDIT: Not Uzbekistan, one of the Stans though.

Singapore's double the cases from my country. They're past 15k while we're sort of limping towards 9k.
Also, isn't one of the hotspots in Singapore located in Jurong?

[Bombadil]

Singapore screwed up because they house migrant workers in large dormitories and basically ignored them. They also didn't bother wearing masks.

Taiwan and HK took to wearing masks immediately. Taiwan is helped by being about the largest manufacturer's of masks and HK simply ignored their government who said they weren't necessary. Taiwan closed its borders to China immediately and the HK medical community had to go on strike to force the HK government to do the same.

Actually Macau should get credit for similar.

Look at Brazil, Russia, China, USA.. lol.. in Uzbekistan they went so far in their denial they arrested anyone wearing a mask.. though god knows we'll never know how they're coping.

Actually look at progressive countries with female leaders and you're pretty much looking at well-managed responses.

EDIT: Not Uzbekistan, one of the Stans though.

Singapore's double the cases from my country. They're past 15k while we're sort of limping towards 9k.
Also, isn't one of the hotspots in Singapore located in Jurong?

Up until the end of March total cases were under 1000 I think, then the virus sneaked its way into the dormitories of migrant workers and the numbers exploded.

[Galloism]

Hmm. Is that analysis based on all countries, all countries with good data, or just your guess based on HK and Singapore?

'cos I'm looking at infections per capita and seeing a bunch of Western democracies ahead of Singapore ...

Singapore screwed up because they house migrant workers in large dormitories and basically ignored them. They also didn't bother wearing masks.

Taiwan and HK took to wearing masks immediately. Taiwan is helped by being about the largest manufacturer's of masks and HK simply ignored their government who said they weren't necessary. Taiwan closed its borders to China immediately and the HK medical community had to go on strike to force the HK government to do the same.

Actually Macau should get credit for similar.

Look at Brazil, Russia, China, USA.. lol.. in Uzbekistan they went so far in their denial they arrested anyone wearing a mask.. though god knows we'll never know how they're coping.

Actually look at progressive countries with female leaders and you're pretty much looking at well-managed responses.

EDIT: Not Uzbekistan, one of the Stans though.

I’m not sure where the sexist assumption comes in or what data it’s based on- the country with the highest death rate per capita is actually Belgium, which has a female PM (665 per m).

Real clear politics has a breakdown by country, but I’d have to go through one by one to see who has male/female leaders, other than ones I know like France, U.K., and us.

Also Montserrat is listed as a country, and it most definitely is not, along with having the population of a slightly overbooked cruise ship.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Defs use infections per capita or deaths per capita. Because there's a strong correlation between small population and having a female leader.

[Galloism]

Defs use infections per capita or deaths per capita. Because there's a strong correlation between small population and having a female leader.

I did exclude very small territories when I said most.

Highest on the list without that exclusion is Channel Islands at over 10,000 deaths per million....... with 40 deaths.

But again, A) it’s not a country and B) deaths per million means basically nothing with such a tiny population.

[Bombadil]

Singapore screwed up because they house migrant workers in large dormitories and basically ignored them. They also didn't bother wearing masks.

Taiwan and HK took to wearing masks immediately. Taiwan is helped by being about the largest manufacturer's of masks and HK simply ignored their government who said they weren't necessary. Taiwan closed its borders to China immediately and the HK medical community had to go on strike to force the HK government to do the same.

Actually Macau should get credit for similar.

Look at Brazil, Russia, China, USA.. lol.. in Uzbekistan they went so far in their denial they arrested anyone wearing a mask.. though god knows we'll never know how they're coping.

Actually look at progressive countries with female leaders and you're pretty much looking at well-managed responses.

EDIT: Not Uzbekistan, one of the Stans though.

I’m not sure where the sexist assumption comes in or what data it’s based on- the country with the highest death rate per capita is actually Belgium, which has a female PM (665 per m).

Real clear politics has a breakdown by country, but I’d have to go through one by one to see who has male/female leaders, other than ones I know like France, U.K., and us.

Also Montserrat is listed as a country, and it most definitely is not, along with having the population of a slightly overbooked cruise ship.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

I wouldn't necessarily just use infections/deaths, since these will be highly questionable anyway, I would use a variety of factors including general tone and accurate messaging throughout. One could add in population density as well to balance against infections/deaths given it hits cities far harder than elsewhere.

An outlier like Belgium, which I'd note has about the highest population density in the world, doesn't detract from the fact that, generally, female leaders have done pretty well.

Hey, Carrie Lam is female too, and she's a total fuck up though, to be fair, she's a puppet of.. an authoritarian leader.

[-Ebola-]

Well shit.

So the rumours of the people working there selling the animals that die in testing to meat markets might be true? That would be deeply concerning, and paint the CCP in an even more directly responsible light than 'merely' covering up an outbreak and silencing the whistleblowers.

At that point, China would be almost totally to blame. Covering a disease up is one thing, but selling the diseased remains of animals to markets is a whole new thing.

I wouldn't assume that happened unless you have seen it from a more reliable source than some dude in this thread.

I think they'd have outbreaks of SARS and teenage mutant ninja SARS much more often if they were selling diseased animal carcasses from a virology lab. Probably some zesty garlic hantavirus and sweet and sour flu too.

[Galloism]

I’m not sure where the sexist assumption comes in or what data it’s based on- the country with the highest death rate per capita is actually Belgium, which has a female PM (665 per m).

Real clear politics has a breakdown by country, but I’d have to go through one by one to see who has male/female leaders, other than ones I know like France, U.K., and us.

Also Montserrat is listed as a country, and it most definitely is not, along with having the population of a slightly overbooked cruise ship.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

I wouldn't necessarily just use infections/deaths, since these will be highly questionable anyway, I would use a variety of factors including general tone and accurate messaging throughout. One could add in population density as well to balance against infections/deaths given it hits cities far harder than elsewhere.

An outlier like Belgium, which I'd note has about the highest population density in the world, doesn't detract from the fact that, generally, female leaders have done pretty well.

Hey, Carrie Lam is female too, and she's a total fuck up though, to be fair, she's a puppet of.. an authoritarian leader.

I don’t think sex really has a lot to do with it, as men and women are generally equal in both good and bad ways in the general sense, and I don’t think you have the data to back up the sexist inference that women are “better” leaders in this pandemic.

This notion you have is a feeling, based on preconceptions, and is based on nothing except preconceived notions and biases - no hard data or facts. It even relies on feelings regarding “general tone” and “accurate messaging”, for which there is no hard data to compare and contrast, just feelings about them.

It’s really not based on evidence without hard facts about these things - just sexist presumptions playing into pre-existing biases and confirming what you already believed before it started.

That’s all.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Just an alt trying to bury something I think.

Probably Banana Boy again.

Either you were right, or you spoke of the devil.

[Bombadil]

I wouldn't necessarily just use infections/deaths, since these will be highly questionable anyway, I would use a variety of factors including general tone and accurate messaging throughout. One could add in population density as well to balance against infections/deaths given it hits cities far harder than elsewhere.

An outlier like Belgium, which I'd note has about the highest population density in the world, doesn't detract from the fact that, generally, female leaders have done pretty well.

Hey, Carrie Lam is female too, and she's a total fuck up though, to be fair, she's a puppet of.. an authoritarian leader.

I don’t think sex really has a lot to do with it, as men and women are generally equal in both good and bad ways in the general sense, and I don’t think you have the data to back up the sexist inference that women are “better” leaders in this pandemic.

This notion you have is a feeling, based on preconceptions, and is based on nothing except preconceived notions and biases - no hard data or facts. It even relies on feelings regarding “general tone” and “accurate messaging”, for which there is no hard data to compare and contrast, just feelings about them.

It’s really not based on evidence without hard facts about these things - just sexist presumptions playing into pre-existing biases and confirming what you already believed before it started.

That’s all.

Do note I never mention 'male', I note female progressive leaders have tended to do well and authoritarian leaders have done poorly. Hence I'd almost add Carrie Lam as an authoritarian female by default, though that's because she's a puppet of Xi.

I could possibly drop the female, just keep progressive, and relook at it but, hey, Sweden is screwing that up.

[Galloism]

I don’t think sex really has a lot to do with it, as men and women are generally equal in both good and bad ways in the general sense, and I don’t think you have the data to back up the sexist inference that women are “better” leaders in this pandemic.

This notion you have is a feeling, based on preconceptions, and is based on nothing except preconceived notions and biases - no hard data or facts. It even relies on feelings regarding “general tone” and “accurate messaging”, for which there is no hard data to compare and contrast, just feelings about them.

It’s really not based on evidence without hard facts about these things - just sexist presumptions playing into pre-existing biases and confirming what you already believed before it started.

That’s all.

Do note I never mention 'male', I note female progressive leaders have tended to do well and authoritarian leaders have done poorly. Hence I'd almost add Carrie Lam as an authoritarian female by default, though that's because she's a puppet of Xi.

I could possibly drop the female, just keep progressive, and relook at it but, hey, Sweden is screwing that up.

Well, it’s worth noting per RCP data... repressive regimes are doing better than progressive ones.

By deaths per capita, it’s Belgium, Spain, Italy, U.K., France, Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, US, Montserrat doesn’t count, Luxembourg, Portugal, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Iran, Austria, Ecuador, Slovenia, Norway, Estonia, Turkey, north Macedonia, romania, Peru, Moldova, Hungary.

The lowest rate place that could reasonably be accurate is... Hong Kong (no one believes the lower ones), which as you pointed out is a corrupt leader serving an authoritarian regime.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

I don’t think sex really has a lot to do with it, as men and women are generally equal in both good and bad ways in the general sense, and I don’t think you have the data to back up the sexist inference that women are “better” leaders in this pandemic.

This notion you have is a feeling, based on preconceptions, and is based on nothing except preconceived notions and biases - no hard data or facts. It even relies on feelings regarding “general tone” and “accurate messaging”, for which there is no hard data to compare and contrast, just feelings about them.

It’s really not based on evidence without hard facts about these things - just sexist presumptions playing into pre-existing biases and confirming what you already believed before it started.

That’s all.

Do note I never mention 'male', I note female progressive leaders have tended to do well and authoritarian leaders have done poorly. Hence I'd almost add Carrie Lam as an authoritarian female by default, though that's because she's a puppet of Xi.

I could possibly drop the female, just keep progressive, and relook at it but, hey, Sweden is screwing that up.

Well exactly. I disagree with the Swedish approach, but until it's all over I can't prove it's any worse.

Neither the authoritarian/progressive nor the male-leader/female-leader "intuitions" you have can be demonstrated. At this stage: information is too incomplete. We can pick out examples of countries screwing up (arresting people for wearing masks for instance), and we can point to great results by early intervention (Taiwan) but the vast majority of countries aren't obviously screwing up also never had the option of early intervention. They only have different approaches, and if only it was that simple. They also have different strengths (population that likes to follow rules for instance) or different weaknesses (dense cities for instance). They're also not at the same stage.

When it's all over there will be a wealth of information about countries and about leaders. But trying for it now is likely to just reinforce hunches and listen for music in noise.

[Galloism]

Do note I never mention 'male', I note female progressive leaders have tended to do well and authoritarian leaders have done poorly. Hence I'd almost add Carrie Lam as an authoritarian female by default, though that's because she's a puppet of Xi.

I could possibly drop the female, just keep progressive, and relook at it but, hey, Sweden is screwing that up.

Well exactly. I disagree with the Swedish approach, but until it's all over I can't prove it's any worse.

Neither the authoritarian/progressive nor the male-leader/female-leader "intuitions" you have can be demonstrated. At this stage: information is too incomplete. We can pick out examples of countries screwing up (arresting people for wearing masks for instance), and we can point to great results by early intervention (Taiwan) but the vast majority of countries aren't obviously screwing up also never had the option of early intervention. They only have different approaches, and if only it was that simple. They also have different strengths (population that likes to follow rules for instance) or different weaknesses (dense cities for instance). They're also not at the same stage.

When it's all over there will be a wealth of information about countries and about leaders. But trying for it now is likely to just reinforce hunches and listen for music in noise.

Thank you. You said that better than I could.

[Galloism]

Also I’d like to note despite misinformation online for some reason, the Premier of Taiwan is Su Tseng-chang, has been since January of 2019, and he is a guy.

[Australian rePublic]

Also I’d like to note despite misinformation online for some reason, the prime minister of Taiwan is Su Tseng-chang, has been since January of 2019, and he is a guy.

"And he is gay"- and I should care, because?

[Galloism]

Also I’d like to note despite misinformation online for some reason, the prime minister of Taiwan is Su Tseng-chang, has been since January of 2019, and he is a guy.

"And he is gay"- and I should care, because?

Um, I don’t know. And I don’t know why you think he’s gay.

Better not tell Chan Hsiu-ling.

That’s his wife, btw.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Also I’d like to note despite misinformation online for some reason, the prime minister of Taiwan is Su Tseng-chang, has been since January of 2019, and he is a guy.

"And he is gay"- and I should care, because?

You have to read Galloism carefully, or he'll trick you into seeing things that are not there.

We were talking about whether male or female leaders are handling the virus better. Gallo is for the null hypothesis.

ScoMo and Adern are handling it about as well as each other. Any difference would be less than the differences between Australia and NZ.

[Galloism]

I just realized Táiwān has both a head of state and head of government, and they’re two separate people.

That’s confusing. I retract my earlier correction, and correct my correction.

[Australian rePublic]

"And he is gay"- and I should care, because?

Um, I don’t know. And I don’t know why you think he’s gay.

Better not tell Chan Hsiu-ling.

That’s his wife, btw.

I don't know whether or not he's gay. I never said that I don't know. What I did say is that I don't care.

[Galloism]

Um, I don’t know. And I don’t know why you think he’s gay.

Better not tell Chan Hsiu-ling.

That’s his wife, btw.

I don't know whether or not he's gay. I never said that I don't know. What I did say is that I don't care.

Weird, since you brought it up. But ok.