Rojava Free State wrote:Baltenstein wrote:
It will definitely be over in 1,5 years once the vaccine has been developed and mass-distributed. That's a lot of time though.
The problem is that 90+% of people won't wanna stay sheltered in place for that long. It's been difficult in some places getting people to obey the lockdown after 4 days. There's no way it would last that long in America or western Europe. Especially if the virus declines in infection. If people think it's too dangerous to go outside, they'll agree to stay indoors. But if they begin to believe (rightly or wrongly) that it isn't dangerous to go out, and they've been inside for over a month, there's a good chance they're gonna stop listening. Not necessarily in a dramatic way like Lumen described with riots and civil war, but just not following protocol. Imagine if tomorrow 75% of the people in your city decided they werent gonna keep following the lockdown and started gathering in crowds, going out with friends, having parties and some businesses reopened. In China, the government would respond by murdering people, because they do that for every reason. In a place like Portugal, it would be the end of the lockdown, because Portugese troops aren't gonna shoot unarmed civilians for gathering, especially when they themselves are skeptical of the lockdown.
To put it simply, a majority of people, civilians and government alike, are not gonna keep a lockdown going if the reason for the lockdown seems to have abated. The day michigan sees only a couple new coronavirus cases a day, the lockdown is probably gonna be over. Especially considering that Whitmer is a swing state governor and isnt guaranteed her seat. She doesn't wanna give an opponent cannon fodder by locking the state down to the point of overkill and causing significant economic damage and a mental health crisis. So in short, my point is a point shared by most people. You lock down till the healthcare system won't be totally decimated. Once the cases are back at a manageable level and we've contained the infected, you end the official lockdown, although you don't necessarily end all restrictions. So if you wanted to shut the whole world down for three weeks and then promised on your mother's life we would reopen in three weeks, I would agree to it.
Very well said. Could not have said it better