2020 US General Election Thread VI: Covid for VP!

[Outer Sparta]

How Kamala Harris seized the moment on race and police reform. Criminal justice reformers say she's neutralized a major liability — her past as a prosecutor — and it comes as Biden prepares to name his VP.

So, it appears she has somewhat re-burnished her image. Hell, even freaking Shaun King seems to have warmed up to her:

“I have been a frequent critic of her because of some of her past work … but she was brilliant,” Shaun King, the activist and former prominent Bernie Sanders supporter, told POLITICO after watching her recently on MSNBC. “It wasn’t canned, either. It was real. Her thoughts on the George Floyd case, how it should be handled, what the (Justice Department) could do, etc., was ... one of the best of any elected officials.

“It made me much more comfortable with her as a potential VP pick," King added.

However, while she's taking up the mantle of criminal justice reform, there are plenty of good reasons why she shouldn't be the VP Nominee:

As attorney general, Harris opposed legalizing marijuana and stayed out of controversial statewide ballot initiatives aimed at lowering nonviolent offenses from felonies to misdemeanors and giving certain nonviolent felons a chance at early parole. She did not back state legislation requiring independent investigations of officer-involved killings or a bill to mandate police officers wear body cameras. And as district attorney years before, she supported raising cash bail.

DeRay Mckesson, the activist, podcaster and co-founder of the police reform group Campaign Zero, met with Harris during her presidential run. In public, he said, Harris was unable to explain her past criminal justice positions in the way she was able to articulate in person. He pointed to her long-standing refusal until last spring to support independent investigations into police shootings and cases of alleged brutality by law enforcement officials.

Early in her career, Harris refused to seek the death penalty for a member of a gang who shot and killed a San Francisco police officer, prompting calls for the case to be taken from her. She reasoned that getting rid of prosecutorial discretion would threaten DAs like herself.

There's more, plenty more too. And some say her record isn't as bad as Klobuchar's...

There's that contrast between Shaun King and DeRay McKesson. Of course King is a grifter and I don't particularly trust what he says.

[Cisairse]

Weird bit in that report was that people got upset that Biden said 10-15% of Americans are not good people. How can they get upset about that? 10-15% of ANY nation are twats, they must be or there'd be no crime. What's the prison population? I mean what a stupid thing to get your nickers in a twist about. Cheap headline.

Unfortunately a lot of Trump supporters have so little self-awareness that they see Biden saying 10% of the population is bad and (1) immediately assume he's talking about them (2) refuse to acknowledge that them jumping to this conclusion may imply that they are actually bad.

Stolen from Twitter: This is Donald Trump's approval rating in every state converted into a red/blue EC win:

(Image)

I’d be cautious with using approval ratings to predict the election, because for one, a lot more people vote in the election than in an approval rating poll, and filling out a survey is a different experience than standing in line and casting your vote.

I’ve never been a fan of the way approval ratings are reported, this reddit post can explain it better than I can

It's worth noting that political opinion polls are not known for being terribly accurate.
A lot of it depends on the specific way you ask the question. "Do you approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?" will get different responses than "Do you like Donald Trump as president?" - but both will be reported in the popular media as "approval ratings".
Also numbers vary wildly between different polling companies. Polling companies all have a bias - some skew more conservative, some more liberal. Two companies asking the same question in the same period will get different results.

While this is true, I would argue that the approval rating is more than meaningless. The 31%-39% of people that have consistently said they "strongly" approve of Trump throughout his presidency is a number that keeps popping up elsewhere; for example, 31% of Americans oppose same-sex marriage being legal and 38% of Americans oppose abortion being legal. If Trump's base are evangelicals plus "America First"-inspired soccons, then it does make quite a bit of sense that his approval rating falls to around 40% when some major scandal is going on and then rises above that when things cool down.

Of course, approval ratings are not directly transferable to presidential votes for a few reasons. Party loyalty is the big one. Other major factors include gradients of support (someone may disapprove of Trump, but disapprove of everyone else more), turnout, hostile voting laws which render statistically significant for the population surveys insignificant for the voting base, etc.

Georgia as safe blue in this case? Of course approval ratings won't translate into actual results, but nevertheless Georgia should be a toss-up, albeit having a lean to the red.

Cisairse has been posting Biden landslide maps for a while now, it’s not going to be a landslide. If anyone wins, it will be very close. I’m almost certain Trump will lose the popular vote again, but may pull off a narrow EC win. If Biden wins, it will be by a few electoral votes, not a big landslide.

Of course its way too early, and both candidates a prone to saying stupid shit, so we’ll have to wait and see

I posted a handful of hypotheticals, mainly as thought experiments. Entertaining the possibility of ideas that are implausible is one of the fun parts of armchair punditry. For example, here's the opposite version of the "Grade 2 blueshift" map I posted before (ie, a grade 2 redshift):



You can imagine that this is the absolute best possible result that Donald Trump could ever see, assuming the American people fundamentally reject Joe Biden.
Now this is an interesting map for such a scenario, for a few reasons:

1. It's actually a fair bit closer than most of the best-case-scenario Biden maps. It's easy to imagine scenarios where Biden flies past 400 EC points, such as taking the 2012 map and flipping TX, GA, and NC. However, it seems nearly impossible for Trump to reach the 400 point threshold. This is despite a Republican reaching that point in relatively recent history — George H. W. Bush broke the 400 barrier in '88, and the GOP had done so in several previous elections. For reference, the grade 2 blueshift gives Biden 464 EC points and Trump only 74.
2. The blueshift map destroys every Democratic victory going back to LBJ, while the redshift map here only beats Trump '16 and Bush Jr in terms of recent Republican victories. I'm not quite sure what conclusions to draw from this.
3. The blue states in this map probably aren't worth Biden's time stumping for votes in.

[Cisairse]

How Kamala Harris seized the moment on race and police reform. Criminal justice reformers say she's neutralized a major liability — her past as a prosecutor — and it comes as Biden prepares to name his VP.

So, it appears she has somewhat re-burnished her image. Hell, even freaking Shaun King seems to have warmed up to her:

“I have been a frequent critic of her because of some of her past work … but she was brilliant,” Shaun King, the activist and former prominent Bernie Sanders supporter, told POLITICO after watching her recently on MSNBC. “It wasn’t canned, either. It was real. Her thoughts on the George Floyd case, how it should be handled, what the (Justice Department) could do, etc., was ... one of the best of any elected officials.

“It made me much more comfortable with her as a potential VP pick," King added.

However, while she's taking up the mantle of criminal justice reform, there are plenty of good reasons why she shouldn't be the VP Nominee:

As attorney general, Harris opposed legalizing marijuana and stayed out of controversial statewide ballot initiatives aimed at lowering nonviolent offenses from felonies to misdemeanors and giving certain nonviolent felons a chance at early parole. She did not back state legislation requiring independent investigations of officer-involved killings or a bill to mandate police officers wear body cameras. And as district attorney years before, she supported raising cash bail.

DeRay Mckesson, the activist, podcaster and co-founder of the police reform group Campaign Zero, met with Harris during her presidential run. In public, he said, Harris was unable to explain her past criminal justice positions in the way she was able to articulate in person. He pointed to her long-standing refusal until last spring to support independent investigations into police shootings and cases of alleged brutality by law enforcement officials.

Early in her career, Harris refused to seek the death penalty for a member of a gang who shot and killed a San Francisco police officer, prompting calls for the case to be taken from her. She reasoned that getting rid of prosecutorial discretion would threaten DAs like herself.

There's more, plenty more too. And some say her record isn't as bad as Klobuchar's...

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeah I don't buy it. Harris is a good senator, but that doesn't forgive how awful she was prior to reaching the federal level. It is unlikely that I will change my opinion to vote against Biden if Harris is the running-mate. Politics isn't the Church, you can't just repent your sins and move on. Especially with this position, considering how much influence over the administration & future of the party the VP pick will likely have.

Part of me almost wishes Biden wasn't only looking at women, so we could have VP Booker.

This is probably highly unlikely, but a considering a lot of the unpopular Democrat incumbents in the Senate and Republican reactionaries running for the House this cycle, there is a small chance that, mostly due to independents, there will be a blue White House and red Congress. That will make it hard for Biden to get landmark legislation passed

Probably not going to happen though

The HRCC is in shambles at this point, there are virtually no GOP pickup seats at this point. In fact, I read an analysis (I think it was in Politico) about a month ago that said statistically speaking the Dems are looking to pick up 1-4 seats and the GOP doesn't have any identified gainable seats except NJ-3, and are instead focusing on playing defense for their most valued House members this cycle.

Senate is a 50/50 tossup for now.

[Jerzylvania]

Are we at a tipping point?

This week, however, the Monmouth poll found that 57 percent of Americans agreeing that police officers are more likely to use excessive force on blacks. The big reason for that jump in support — not surprisingly — is that more whites believe this to be true. In 2016, just a quarter of white Americans thought the police were more likely to use deadly force on blacks. That number almost doubled (49 percent) in the June 2020 poll.

A CBS poll out this week showed similar results: "A majority — 57% — now think the police are more likely to use deadly force against a black person than a white person, up from 43% in 2016. Here, too, much of this change comes from a shift in opinion among whites. More than half of whites (52%) now see racial discrimination against blacks in how police use force, compared to just a third (36%) four years ago."

[San Lumen]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/vi ... d_nn_tw_ma

Virginia State Senator Amanda Chase (R) who is running for governor next year said the removal of confederate statues is part of overall effort to erase white history and is being criticized by members of her own party for it

[Cisairse]

Are we at a tipping point?

This week, however, the Monmouth poll found that 57 percent of Americans agreeing that police officers are more likely to use excessive force on blacks. The big reason for that jump in support — not surprisingly — is that more whites believe this to be true. In 2016, just a quarter of white Americans thought the police were more likely to use deadly force on blacks. That number almost doubled (49 percent) in the June 2020 poll.

A CBS poll out this week showed similar results: "A majority — 57% — now think the police are more likely to use deadly force against a black person than a white person, up from 43% in 2016. Here, too, much of this change comes from a shift in opinion among whites. More than half of whites (52%) now see racial discrimination against blacks in how police use force, compared to just a third (36%) four years ago."

Add this to the fact that police groups are breaking with Joe Biden and have become significantly more conservative since 2012 and you can see the graffiti on the wall.

[Cisairse]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/virginia-gop-calls-own-lawmaker-s-comments-confederate-statues-idiotic-n1225806?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

Virginia State Senator Amanda Chase (R) who is running for governor next year said the removal of confederate statues is part of overall effort to erase white history and is being criticized by members of her own party for it

I always think it's funny when GOP lawmakers face heavy criticism for saying things that many GOP voters wholeheartedly believe and will vote in favor of.

[San Lumen]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/virginia-gop-calls-own-lawmaker-s-comments-confederate-statues-idiotic-n1225806?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

Virginia State Senator Amanda Chase (R) who is running for governor next year said the removal of confederate statues is part of overall effort to erase white history and is being criticized by members of her own party for it

I always think it's funny when GOP lawmakers face heavy criticism for saying things that many GOP voters wholeheartedly believe and will vote in favor of.

Perhaps they are beginning to relate stuff like this isn't going to win them a general election. If this woman gets the nod there is a very good chance Democrats will hold the Governorship next year regardless of who is nominated

[Cisairse]

I always think it's funny when GOP lawmakers face heavy criticism for saying things that many GOP voters wholeheartedly believe and will vote in favor of.

Perhaps they are beginning to relate stuff like this isn't going to win them a general election. If this woman gets the nod there is a very good chance Democrats will hold the Governorship next year regardless of who is nominated

Tbh there's a good chance Democrats will hold the Governorship no matter what.

[San Lumen]

Perhaps they are beginning to relate stuff like this isn't going to win them a general election. If this woman gets the nod there is a very good chance Democrats will hold the Governorship next year regardless of who is nominated

Tbh there's a good chance Democrats will hold the Governorship no matter what.

If Biden wins its difficult to say its a certainty but Virginia has changed dramatically over the last few cycles.

[Cisairse]

Tbh there's a good chance Democrats will hold the Governorship no matter what.

If Biden wins its difficult to say its a certainty but Virginia has changed dramatically over the last few cycles.

Yeah Virginia is a blue state at this point. Gov. Northam has a 59% approval rating.

[Jerzylvania]

Are we at a tipping point?

This week, however, the Monmouth poll found that 57 percent of Americans agreeing that police officers are more likely to use excessive force on blacks. The big reason for that jump in support — not surprisingly — is that more whites believe this to be true. In 2016, just a quarter of white Americans thought the police were more likely to use deadly force on blacks. That number almost doubled (49 percent) in the June 2020 poll.

A CBS poll out this week showed similar results: "A majority — 57% — now think the police are more likely to use deadly force against a black person than a white person, up from 43% in 2016. Here, too, much of this change comes from a shift in opinion among whites. More than half of whites (52%) now see racial discrimination against blacks in how police use force, compared to just a third (36%) four years ago."

Add this to the fact that police groups are breaking with Joe Biden and have become significantly more conservative since 2012 and you can see the graffiti on the wall.

Let me throw this in: Biden's in one of the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began

Keep in mind that Trump is a terrible inter-party politician, certainly one of the worst in American history. But OTOH Trump has become an extraordinary intraparty politician, one of the best in American history. This is how an incumbent president can be very popular with members of his own party and yet be the first POTUS in the history of polling to never reach 50 percent approval in any major national poll. Everything is breaking as a red or blue issue including police support. All of this leads me to believe there will be little (if any) shifting in the current polls right up to election day.

[San Lumen]

If Biden wins its difficult to say its a certainty but Virginia has changed dramatically over the last few cycles.

Yeah Virginia is a blue state at this point. Gov. Northam has a 59% approval rating.

It definitely seems like it. Northam has been handling things extremely well.

[Neutraligon]

Guess who Colin Powell just endorsed https://www.foxnews.com/politics/colin- ... -for-biden

[San Lumen]

Guess who Colin Powell just endorsed https://www.foxnews.com/politics/colin- ... -for-biden

Excellent. Hopefully more high profile Republicans follow

[Jerzylvania]

Guess who Colin Powell just endorsed https://www.foxnews.com/politics/colin- ... -for-biden

Biden on a full steam with momentum.

[Outer Sparta]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/virginia-gop-calls-own-lawmaker-s-comments-confederate-statues-idiotic-n1225806?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

Virginia State Senator Amanda Chase (R) who is running for governor next year said the removal of confederate statues is part of overall effort to erase white history and is being criticized by members of her own party for it

The VA GOP nominated Corey Stewart in the 2018 US Senate election against Kaine. Not surprising to see Amanda Chase up there as well.

[Valrifell]

This is probably highly unlikely, but a considering a lot of the unpopular Democrat incumbents in the Senate and Republican reactionaries running for the House this cycle, there is a small chance that, mostly due to independents, there will be a blue White House and red Congress. That will make it hard for Biden to get landmark legislation passed

Probably not going to happen though

Which unpopular incumbents? Which reactionaries are you talking about?

[Cisairse]

Add this to the fact that police groups are breaking with Joe Biden and have become significantly more conservative since 2012 and you can see the graffiti on the wall.

Let me throw this in: Biden's in one of the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began

Keep in mind that Trump is a terrible inter-party politician, certainly one of the worst in American history. But OTOH Trump has become an extraordinary intraparty politician, one of the best in American history. This is how an incumbent president can be very popular with members of his own party and yet be the first POTUS in the history of polling to never reach 50 percent approval in any major national poll. Everything is breaking as a red or blue issue including police support. All of this leads me to believe there will be little (if any) shifting in the current polls right up to election day.

I agree that it's very unlikely we will see any shift in the current polls through election day.

The big question is whether the MOE for these polls allows Trump to win or Biden to win, and, assuming it's the case that both are true, where the noise will bring us.

[San Lumen]

This is probably highly unlikely, but a considering a lot of the unpopular Democrat incumbents in the Senate and Republican reactionaries running for the House this cycle, there is a small chance that, mostly due to independents, there will be a blue White House and red Congress. That will make it hard for Biden to get landmark legislation passed

Probably not going to happen though

The odds of the House flipping but Trumps losing are extremely slim

[Cisairse]

This is probably highly unlikely, but a considering a lot of the unpopular Democrat incumbents in the Senate and Republican reactionaries running for the House this cycle, there is a small chance that, mostly due to independents, there will be a blue White House and red Congress. That will make it hard for Biden to get landmark legislation passed

Probably not going to happen though

The odds of the House flipping but Trumps losing are extremely slim

The odds of the House flipping in general are about 1 in 5, which is a pretty small chance.

[San Lumen]

The odds of the House flipping but Trumps losing are extremely slim

The odds of the House flipping in general are about 1 in 5, which is a pretty small chance.

Its highly unlikely even if Trump wins reelection

[Valrifell]

The odds of the House flipping in general are about 1 in 5, which is a pretty small chance.

Its highly unlikely even if Trump wins reelection

20% isn't that bad all things considered.

[The Andromeda Island Group]

The odds of the House flipping but Trumps losing are extremely slim

The odds of the House flipping in general are about 1 in 5, which is a pretty small chance.

1. I doubt that the odd of the house flipping are that high.
2. In a normal election year with a closely divided house, wouldn't the odds be 50-50, 1 in 2? 1 in 5 isn't that low.

[San Lumen]

Its highly unlikely even if Trump wins reelection

20% isn't that bad all things considered.

Its a very difficult scenario to envision