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Global ramifications of the Corona Crisis

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:18 pm
by Nakena
Since we often have in the Covid-19 main thread discussions about its political implications and ramifications I thought i open a new thread. I feel the actual Corona thread should be more about the pandemic and the virus and so on rather than politics.

How will the corona crisis affect our political and economic systems, specifically with the US political leadership in a state of chaos and various other countries quickly attempting to adapt their industries and productions to meet the demands of the crisis while entire sectors of the ecnomy are send in lockdown and more and more cracks are showing up in established systems.

What will a post-corona world be looking like?

Will it be the same as before? Or not at all?

Will we have to adopt new economic and political orders to safeguard our future survival and prosperity?




Obligatory OP opinion: I believe there will be sweeping changes to how we live and perceive the world, that will the more drastic the longer the crisis lasts.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:21 pm
by Diarcesia
I think one resembling Rhine Capitalism will be on the rise.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:22 pm
by Ethel mermania
No.

Things will return to normal 90 days after the end of the crises

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:24 pm
by Stellar Colonies
More extensive border security, universal healthcare, and a better safety net for people who lose their jobs will all probably become more popular, and there will probably some more anger against bureaucracy and the better-cared-for elite. Maybe also some demands for better air quality in industrial areas of China and elsewhere.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:27 pm
by Albrenia
Hopefully the world will learn its lesson about not feeding into predatory capitalism that ties us up to a monstrous regime like the Chinese Government just so people can make a quick buck.

Hopefully people will grow less hateful of those in need of aid with the experience of what it is like to be thrust into economic hardship through no fault of one's own.

Probably not though.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:28 pm
by LiberNovusAmericae
Ethel mermania wrote:No.

Things will return to normal 90 days after the end of the crises

I hope we stop relying on China for medical supplies, but I have no hope of real change.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:29 pm
by The East Marches II
Ethel mermania wrote:No.

Things will return to normal 90 days after the end of the crises


I wish I believed you. Every indicator I am seeing says we are deep trouble. There will be no easy escape from this. The Great Depression will probably look easy.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:29 pm
by LimaUniformNovemberAlpha
Ethel mermania wrote:No.

Things will return to normal 90 days after the end of the crises

Seriously doubt it. The measures people have turned to, for good (working from home) or ill (hoarding and price-gouging) and everything that could be either/or (loosening bottle size restrictions at airport) have disproven a number of previously accepted assumptions about society.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:32 pm
by LiberNovusAmericae
The East Marches II wrote:
Ethel mermania wrote:No.

Things will return to normal 90 days after the end of the crises


I wish I believed you. Every indicator I am seeing says we are deep trouble. There will be no easy escape from this. The Great Depression will probably look easy.

How much worse than the Great Depression?

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:37 pm
by Nakena
LiberNovusAmericae wrote:
The East Marches II wrote:
I wish I believed you. Every indicator I am seeing says we are deep trouble. There will be no easy escape from this. The Great Depression will probably look easy.

How much worse than the Great Depression?


Depending on how long the crisis last the entire economic system might collapse with temporarily forms of central command economy being implemented upon critical sectors to ensure the feeding and supplying of the population.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:37 pm
by The East Marches II
LiberNovusAmericae wrote:
The East Marches II wrote:
I wish I believed you. Every indicator I am seeing says we are deep trouble. There will be no easy escape from this. The Great Depression will probably look easy.

How much worse than the Great Depression?


50% GDP loss and 30% unemployment. Compressed into a 5 month time period. Thats worse than the Great Depression. Thats from the Fed St. Louis. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are slightly more optimistic. Their numbers are not great either. This is why Pelosi, Schumer and McConnell fucking us by demanding means testing is not only insane, it will lead to a V shaped recovery and probably the irrevocable destruction of most small business stateside. Let me add in Trump as also having screwed the pooch for not having any balls and standing up for his ideas. Disgraceful. We are doing the equivalent of fighting the last war.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:40 pm
by LiberNovusAmericae
The East Marches II wrote:
LiberNovusAmericae wrote:How much worse than the Great Depression?


50% GDP loss and 30% unemployment. Compressed into a 5 month time period. Thats worse than the Great Depression. Thats from the Fed St. Louis. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are slightly more optimistic. Their numbers are not great either. This is why Pelosi, Schumer and McConnell fucking us by demanding means testing is not only insane, it will lead to a V shaped recovery and probably the irrevocable destruction of most small business stateside. Let me add in Trump as also having screwed the pooch for not having any balls and standing up for his ideas. Disgraceful. We are doing the equivalent of fighting the last war.

Well, I hope they're wrong. That's really all I can do right now, other than prepare.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:41 pm
by Thermodolia
I definitely see the governments of Iran and Italy being toppled. China is probably gonna have mass protests and the US will probably have more people supporting government doing things than ever before

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:41 pm
by The East Marches II
LiberNovusAmericae wrote:
The East Marches II wrote:
50% GDP loss and 30% unemployment. Compressed into a 5 month time period. Thats worse than the Great Depression. Thats from the Fed St. Louis. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are slightly more optimistic. Their numbers are not great either. This is why Pelosi, Schumer and McConnell fucking us by demanding means testing is not only insane, it will lead to a V shaped recovery and probably the irrevocable destruction of most small business stateside. Let me add in Trump as also having screwed the pooch for not having any balls and standing up for his ideas. Disgraceful. We are doing the equivalent of fighting the last war.

Well, I hope they're wrong. That's really all I can do right now, other than prepare.


If we are lucky, we might have enough of a market to do a massive second round stimulus like they did after the Bush one failed. That nearly choked out business lines of credit and strangled them in the crib while it was going on. We ran it close but got away with it. Now I am not sure we will have one to ruin.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:41 pm
by Diarcesia
The East Marches II wrote:
LiberNovusAmericae wrote:How much worse than the Great Depression?


50% GDP loss and 30% unemployment. Compressed into a 5 month time period. Thats worse than the Great Depression. Thats from the Fed St. Louis. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are slightly more optimistic. Their numbers are not great either. This is why Pelosi, Schumer and McConnell fucking us by demanding means testing is not only insane, it will lead to a V shaped recovery and probably the irrevocable destruction of most small business stateside. Let me add in Trump as also having screwed the pooch for not having any balls and standing up for his ideas. Disgraceful. We are doing the equivalent of fighting the last war.

I think if it was compressed like that the economy will recover faster. I think it'll look more like the 1987 flash crash.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:44 pm
by The East Marches II
Diarcesia wrote:
The East Marches II wrote:
50% GDP loss and 30% unemployment. Compressed into a 5 month time period. Thats worse than the Great Depression. Thats from the Fed St. Louis. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are slightly more optimistic. Their numbers are not great either. This is why Pelosi, Schumer and McConnell fucking us by demanding means testing is not only insane, it will lead to a V shaped recovery and probably the irrevocable destruction of most small business stateside. Let me add in Trump as also having screwed the pooch for not having any balls and standing up for his ideas. Disgraceful. We are doing the equivalent of fighting the last war.

I think if it was compressed like that the economy will recover faster. I think it'll look more like the 1987 flash crash.


That would be if it were just the stock market. The real economy is going under. Its much easier to destroy than it is to build. Much quicker too. I think you are very much mistaken but I do hope to be wrong! I hope very much this current package masters the situation but I do not believe it will.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:44 pm
by Thermodolia
The East Marches II wrote:
LiberNovusAmericae wrote:How much worse than the Great Depression?


50% GDP loss and 30% unemployment. Compressed into a 5 month time period. Thats worse than the Great Depression. Thats from the Fed St. Louis. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are slightly more optimistic. Their numbers are not great either. This is why Pelosi, Schumer and McConnell fucking us by demanding means testing is not only insane, it will lead to a V shaped recovery and probably the irrevocable destruction of most small business stateside. Let me add in Trump as also having screwed the pooch for not having any balls and standing up for his ideas. Disgraceful. We are doing the equivalent of fighting the last war.

We will probably have a revolution in the near future if the worse comes to pass

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:23 pm
by Ethel mermania
LiberNovusAmericae wrote:
Ethel mermania wrote:No.

Things will return to normal 90 days after the end of the crises

I hope we stop relying on China for medical supplies, but I have no hope of real change.

I agree with you.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:27 pm
by Ethel mermania
The East Marches II wrote:
Ethel mermania wrote:No.

Things will return to normal 90 days after the end of the crises


I wish I believed you. Every indicator I am seeing says we are deep trouble. There will be no easy escape from this. The Great Depression will probably look easy.

I disagree, business fundamentals with the exception of the fed rate looked good. For this the fed rate doesnt matter anyway, you cant push on a string. As long as the government can keep liquidity in the markets, nothing like the great depression will happen. If credit drys up, yes, but if it doesnt I dont see a depression happening.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:28 pm
by Vetalia
LiberNovusAmericae wrote:
Ethel mermania wrote:No.

Things will return to normal 90 days after the end of the crises

I hope we stop relying on China for medical supplies, but I have no hope of real change.


I hope we stop relying on China for anything.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:30 pm
by Albrenia
Vetalia wrote:
LiberNovusAmericae wrote:I hope we stop relying on China for medical supplies, but I have no hope of real change.


I hope we stop relying on China for anything.


I hope so too.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:31 pm
by Nakena
Vetalia wrote:
LiberNovusAmericae wrote:I hope we stop relying on China for medical supplies, but I have no hope of real change.


I hope we stop relying on China for anything.


That be a necessarity for continued survival of the western nations.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:36 pm
by Albrenia
Best case scenario is people find a way to avoid both insipid isolationist nationalism and moronic supplication to whoever can make junk for the lowest price in the highest quantity.

Not holding my breath though, except when in public and someone coughs.

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:38 pm
by Vetalia
Nakena wrote:
Vetalia wrote:
I hope we stop relying on China for anything.


That be a necessarity for continued survival of the western nations.


How?

PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:40 pm
by Nakena
Vetalia wrote:
Nakena wrote:
That be a necessarity for continued survival of the western nations.


How?


Most western nation can't even manufacture basic medical equipment as of now as all was outsourced to places like the PRC by davos men because "muh free markets, muh frees, muh globalization" and similar nonsense.