Coronavirus Thread mark II: Official Apocalyptic Edition

[Diopolis]

That would be my way to guesstimate it.

I think (tentatively) that you have to exclude data from the last two weeks, that being approximately how long it takes for cases to resolve. Unfortunately that would leave very little data to work with.

I'm not quite sure how you'd go about collecting data for that.
Hopefully, the lockdown measures currently going on will be enough to reduce new cases where we'll have relatively accurate numbers in a few weeks. If they're not, then that's bad news for the efficacy of lockdowns.

[Vetalia]

That would be my way to guesstimate it.

I think (tentatively) that you have to exclude data from the last two weeks, that being approximately how long it takes for cases to resolve. Unfortunately that would leave very little data to work with.

Usually I'm up for rough calculations based on publicly available data, but not now. Epidemiology is pretty hard!

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

This is an interesting place to start, there are some remarkable trends in the influenza-like illness data that I was playing around with earlier but it's not exactly a ton to work with.

[Diopolis]

The second one seems to me a bigger assumption than the first.

Iceland does have a much lower population density than the United States, so there are probably vast numbers of asymptomatic carriers already out there. We really need to do some analysis on the data from January and February regarding influenza-like illnesses...it would be interesting to see the mortality rate data from respiratory failure without influenza to get an idea of when this actually showed up. It was clearly already widespread enough by mid-February for Mardi Gras to be a major source of the current batch of cases.

Not just mardi gras- New Orleans was still partying on St. Patrick's day.

[Shanghai industrial complex]

Well,0.86% is not mentioned in this article.I remember that 0.86% is the data of China except Wuhan.Because there are fewer patients in other areas, there are plenty of medical care and supplies......

What Diopolis is doing there is concluding (from the Icelandic study) that for every case recorded by the CDC there is one other case not recorded because they never had symptoms and never got tested. So Dio has taken the number 1.72 and halved it.

It seems reasonable, if the Icelandic study is correct and also if Americans get infected without symptoms at the same rate as Icelanders do.

Iceland has only 340,000 people in total, and they are much easier to act than the United States.I think Iceland's research has limited reference value.

[Vetalia]

Not just mardi gras- New Orleans was still partying on St. Patrick's day.

True, the hardest part right now is we have no idea of how many cases there really are due to the slow testing...unfortunately it's impossible to truly see a trend but it is interesting the first trend of cases started to slow through the 16th and then had another pulse of activity that accelerated after 3/17, which of course was St. Patrick's Day.

[Australian rePublic]

Good news, Australia has reported fewer new cases than last week

[Vetalia]

What Diopolis is doing there is concluding (from the Icelandic study) that for every case recorded by the CDC there is one other case not recorded because they never had symptoms and never got tested. So Dio has taken the number 1.72 and halved it.

It seems reasonable, if the Icelandic study is correct and also if Americans get infected without symptoms at the same rate as Icelanders do.

Iceland has only 340,000 people in total, and they are much easier to act than the United States.I think Iceland's research has limited reference value.

Not if the data itself is statistically sound; a small population in itself doesn't invalidate results and Iceland's population density, while on average is very low is still very high in certain areas and comparable to other urban areas. It would be different if the population was literally distributed evenly across the entire island.

[Greater Miami Shores]

Good news, Australia has reported fewer new cases than last week

That is good news good to hear.

[Vetalia]

Good news, Australia has reported fewer new cases than last week

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Great news! Looks like things might be rolling over in a lot of countries and the number of recovered are accelerating, which means more availability of convalescent plasma for treatment. What will really be interesting is as testing ramps up and recovered asymptomatic carriers are identified, that much more will be available.

[Ayytaly]

Good news, Australia has reported fewer new cases than last week

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Great news! Looks like things might be rolling over in a lot of countries and the number of recovered are accelerating, which means more availability of convalescent plasma for treatment. What will really be interesting is as testing ramps up and recovered asymptomatic carriers are identified, that much more will be available.

The US will definitely RISE in cases under their current administration, unfortunately.

[Greed and Death]

Iceland does have a much lower population density than the United States, so there are probably vast numbers of asymptomatic carriers already out there. We really need to do some analysis on the data from January and February regarding influenza-like illnesses...it would be interesting to see the mortality rate data from respiratory failure without influenza to get an idea of when this actually showed up. It was clearly already widespread enough by mid-February for Mardi Gras to be a major source of the current batch of cases.

Not just mardi gras- New Orleans was still partying on St. Patrick's day.

New Orleans is a spring break spot.

[Ethel mermania]

Not just mardi gras- New Orleans was still partying on St. Patrick's day.

New Orleans is a spring break spot.

The food and strip bars are amazing

[Nobel Hobos 2]

What Diopolis is doing there is concluding (from the Icelandic study) that for every case recorded by the CDC there is one other case not recorded because they never had symptoms and never got tested. So Dio has taken the number 1.72 and halved it.

It seems reasonable, if the Icelandic study is correct and also if Americans get infected without symptoms at the same rate as Icelanders do.

Iceland has only 340,000 people in total, and they are much easier to act than the United States.I think Iceland's research has limited reference value.

Total number of people shouldn't matter, only the health resources available per capita. Iceland may have an advantage but I don't know.

I hope it's outright wrong, or at least that it doesn't apply outside Iceland. It might seem like a positive thing (the disease is less often fatal than we though) but it has the dire implication that a lot of the asymptomatic people we let travel around and work may actually be carriers. That's a problem which can only be solved with more testing: people who have a good reason to be out of quarantine could get regular tests. Next I'd prioritize households with elderly or sick people living in them. Ideally it would be everyone, and regularly.

[Vetalia]

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Great news! Looks like things might be rolling over in a lot of countries and the number of recovered are accelerating, which means more availability of convalescent plasma for treatment. What will really be interesting is as testing ramps up and recovered asymptomatic carriers are identified, that much more will be available.

The US will definitely RISE in cases under their current administration, unfortunately.

There isn't much we can do beyond what we're doing now - there's every indication this was around and spreading for weeks or even a couple of months now. At best we can work to protect healthcare workers and conserve resources from less impacted areas to be redeployed elsewhere via these social distancing measures. It's entirely possible that we might be reaching the peak already if it has been around long enough.

[Greed and Death]

New Orleans is a spring break spot.

The food and strip bars are amazing

The thanksgiving after my Ex broke up with me and became a crack whore (literally) I drowned my sorrows in getting lap dances in New Orleans.

[Australian rePublic]

Good news, Australia has reported fewer new cases than last week

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Great news! Looks like things might be rolling over in a lot of countries and the number of recovered are accelerating, which means more availability of convalescent plasma for treatment. What will really be interesting is as testing ramps up and recovered asymptomatic carriers are identified, that much more will be available.

I haven't tested positive, but if I did and I recovered, I'd happily donate my plasma to the greater good. Not sure if people with thalassemia can donate, though. Can we? Can us thalassemiacs donate? Considering that anti-malarials can kill this bloody disease, I'm starting to wonder if thalassemia, the immunuty to malaria, can play a role in immunity

[Ayytaly]

Not just mardi gras- New Orleans was still partying on St. Patrick's day.

New Orleans is a spring break spot.

And also a watery grave

[Shanghai industrial complex]

Iceland has only 340,000 people in total, and they are much easier to act than the United States.I think Iceland's research has limited reference value.

Total number of people shouldn't matter, only the health resources available per capita. Iceland may have an advantage but I don't know.

I hope it's outright wrong, or at least that it doesn't apply outside Iceland. It might seem like a positive thing (the disease is less often fatal than we though) but it has the dire implication that a lot of the asymptomatic people we let travel around and work may actually be carriers. That's a problem which can only be solved with more testing: people who have a good reason to be out of quarantine could get regular tests. Next I'd prioritize households with elderly or sick people living in them. Ideally it would be everyone, and regularly.

I have a brilliant idea.Full coverage test for everyone!With rapid screening reagents, the program costs less than $500 billion and could revitalize the healthcare industry.And large-scale procurement can reduce costs.My plan is only one step short, that is to win the election over the orange guys.LOL

[Vetalia]

I haven't tested positive, but if I did and I recovered, I'd happily donate my plasma to the greater good. Not sure if people with thalassemia can donate, though. Can we? Can us thalassemiacs donate? Considering that anti-malarials can kill this bloody disease, I'm starting to wonder if thalassemia, the immunuty to malaria, can play a role in immunity

I would think you would be fine to donate plasma since that wouldn't impact your red blood cell/hemoglobin count significantly. I have no idea on the other factors related to malaria resistance as the role of the anti-malarials and other treatments is still in a testing phase...it appears that they work on a limited pool of evidence but I can't say anything conclusively.

[Moscareinas]

so apparently when the us senate passed the $3 trillion stimulus package that allotted $1.25 billion to states and $500 million to "territories", it made the district of columbia a "territory", thus making it receive the far smaller package, because

i dunno, it's become less "why does congress hate dc?" and far more "why are people dicks?"

[Australian rePublic]

I haven't tested positive, but if I did and I recovered, I'd happily donate my plasma to the greater good. Not sure if people with thalassemia can donate, though. Can we? Can us thalassemiacs donate? Considering that anti-malarials can kill this bloody disease, I'm starting to wonder if thalassemia, the immunuty to malaria, can play a role in immunity

I would think you would be fine to donate plasma since that wouldn't impact your red blood cell/hemoglobin count significantly.

Yea, but won't my blood contaminate the other person?

[Greater Miami Shores]

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Great news! Looks like things might be rolling over in a lot of countries and the number of recovered are accelerating, which means more availability of convalescent plasma for treatment. What will really be interesting is as testing ramps up and recovered asymptomatic carriers are identified, that much more will be available.

The US will definitely RISE in cases under their current administration, unfortunately.

As it should be under any administration, President Trump is trying to do all he can.

[Moscareinas]

The US will definitely RISE in cases under their current administration, unfortunately.

As it should be under any administration, President Trump is trying to do all he can.

all he CAN? dude, the fuck?

[Washington Resistance Army]

so apparently when the us senate passed the $3 trillion stimulus package that allotted $1.25 billion to states and $500 million to "territories", it made the district of columbia a "territory", thus making it receive the far smaller package, because

i dunno, it's become less "why does congress hate dc?" and far more "why are people dicks?"

Well, it's not a state so that makes sense.

[Greed and Death]

so apparently when the us senate passed the $3 trillion stimulus package that allotted $1.25 billion to states and $500 million to "territories", it made the district of columbia a "territory", thus making it receive the far smaller package, because

i dunno, it's become less "why does congress hate dc?" and far more "why are people dicks?"

Territories are far smaller in population sounds like DC came out ahead per capita. Also the federal government already provides those services that are done by states in territories.