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Bear Stearns
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Capitalizt

Postby Bear Stearns » Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:57 pm

A coronavirus-caused recession will be more similar to the post-9/11 recession than to 2008 - i.e. trading infrastructure is threatened and airlines and tourism take massive losses.
Last edited by Bear Stearns on Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stylan
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Stylan » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:00 pm

its weird how in the months after i become an anprim my ideology's points about the eventual collapse of globalist capitalism all prove themselves true.
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Bombadil
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Bombadil » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:02 pm

Bear Stearns wrote:A coronavirus-caused recession will be more similar to the post-9/11 recession than to 2008.


Possibly, I feel there's somewhat a difference when the second and eighth largest economies by GDP essentially shut down, especially in a far more interconnected world of logistics. In addition governments have very little leverage given '08 and the resultant low interest rates since then.

It's not just coronavirus either, SA and Russia are faff'ing around with oil, which essentially triggered this.

Just think of all the contracts gone given the cancellation of so many events around the world. Having said that, someone commented it could be more akin to '73 though for different reasons.
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Greed and Death
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Postby Greed and Death » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:11 pm

This is the time to buy if you have money. Give it a month or two fears will ease and the damage from the Croana virus will be minimal and largely confined to coastal population centers.
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Harkback Union
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Ex-Nation

Postby Harkback Union » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:25 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
Harkback Union wrote:Here is what a lot of people dont get:

THE STOCK MARKET IS A PYRAMID SCHEME!!!

Its also a casino.

Or a game of musical chairs.

People buy/sell stocks at increasing prices even though the value of the stocks (their returns) are not increasing nearly that much. This then attracts even more people to buy stocks because "LOOK, THE MARKETS ARE BOOMING!!! YAY!!! LETS INVEST!!!" and then every wannabe stock broker buys into companies they have no clue about and prices skyrocket and once ppl run out of money to spend and there is the slightest hint of a recession they start to sell, and then you get the exact opposite effect and suddenly everyone wants to sell AND THERE ARE NO BUYERS.

Its like you buy tulips for 1000$ thinking you can sell for more, and then nobody wants to buy your 1000$ tulip, except millions of people bought into the goddamn tulip.

Who win? Where did all the money people put into the market go? Those who shuffle the money got them in bonuses.

Who lose? Anyone with savings in a bank (They gambled your money away, but also they pay no interest on it because low fed rates). Anyone who pays taxes (cause your tax money will bail out the next dozen banks to fail). Also, anyone who will lose their job in the next couple years because of a completely needless recession.

I lost count of how many youtube ads I get about investing in stocks. Never do that. Ever. Its for suckers. Might as well go to the casino, you have better odds and you won't ruin other people's lives.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." ~ HL Mencken



Its a simple problem that takes kindergarden level cognition to understand and Goebbels level propaganda to veil as "complex and inevitable market process".

People figured this in the 30s. FDR and friends shut down the racket for almost decades. No more "Market corrections". If there was a crisis, it had to do with something material, like oil running out. Now millions lose their homes and life saving because banks can do whatever the f ck they want with it.

0% Interest? 20 Trillion in debt? You're telling me this is not a Pyramid Scheme?
NOBODY WILL REPAY THAT 20 TRILLION $. EVER.

Now its not just people, the entire planet's economy is getting sucked in. Every government is in on it. Not that they want to be, they have to be.

Want me to explain the pyramid scheme?

-Billions of people are buying government bonds.
-Do they want to buy bonds?
-No.
-Are they actually getting the bonds they pay for?
-No.
-Same goes for stocks. You are forced to buy them. You can also buy them willingly if you listen to ads, if you wanna lose even more.
-How can they force you to buy stuff you dont want to? Or even worse, stuff you dont actually get after you pay for it?
-They print money. They devalue what you have and send that value into stocks and bonds in their own governments and economies.
-Bonds go to paying exisiting debts, which ends up on Wall Street and The City. The money going into stocks also gets sucked away by Wall Street, The City.

Want some economic forecast? In 2030 the US will have 40 Trillion $ in debt. In 2040 100 Quadrillion $. In 2050 9999999 Gazillion $.
Of course that's not just $. Everybody has to do it, because if you don't you'll be paying for everyone else's debt. So the only reasonable thing is to drown yourself in debt as much as you can cause nobody will ever repay it. Of course, if you are a little guy, no way you are getting away with that. But if you are a reputable government, major bank or corporation, the worst case scenario is a bailout from another guy printing money or taking on 0% loans from the guy printing the money.

That's all folks.
And don't buy gold or bitcoin or any other magic beans, you'll just get f cked even harder with that.
Last edited by Harkback Union on Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Nobel Hobos 2
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Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:50 pm

Greed and Death wrote:This is the time to buy if you have money.


You're assuming this crash is finished and will go up from here.

Give it a month or two fears will ease and the damage from the Croana virus will be minimal and largely confined to coastal population centers.


The coastal states are where most people live, don't minimalize it. If you add population centers across the country not just on the coast (and why wouldn't you) it's the overwhelming majority of Americans. The US is more urbanized than just about any country on Earth.
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:51 pm

Kaystein wrote:This is definitely the time to buy stocks. Anything reliable you buy now is going rebound and earn you a profit.

Not now. The market hasn’t hit bottom yet. At that point then you buy
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:55 pm

Greed and Death wrote:This is the time to buy if you have money. Give it a month or two fears will ease and the damage from the Croana virus will be minimal and largely confined to coastal population centers.

Eh I don’t think it will bottom out for another month
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I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
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Harkback Union
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Postby Harkback Union » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:56 pm

Uiiop wrote:
Kaystein wrote:Here's a tip for the risk-taker: Buy bitcoin right now. It's price has dipped along with the market, and it's guaranteed to rise again in value after people can't mine for it anymore.

Ain't the transactions fees and errors make that not worth it?


Crypto, Precious metals, foreign currency, none of these are safe. You could lose your money TOMORROW. Sure, you can win big too. But then what? You don't wanna sell yet, why would you, it could go SOO much higher!!
And then... its going down again... really fast. Oh no. Sorry. You're broke.

Also if you buy gold... you don't buy gold. Nobody ever buys gold. You just buy papers about owning gold. If gold prices skyrocketed and you want to sell your gold (you don't actually have), you realize you were scammed. Cause you don't have the gold, do you? Nope. Nobody ever has any gold, except in fairy tales. My Grandpa's uncle used to tell me about jewelry they had made of gold they pawned in to pay for the loan on their model-T, that's the last they've seen gold.

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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:58 pm

I'll admit, I wasn't too worried when stocks were falling last week, but now I'm a bit apprehensive. An economic slowdown is not something I really want as I'm leaving college.

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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:59 pm

Stylan wrote:its weird how in the months after i become an anprim my ideology's points about the eventual collapse of globalist capitalism all prove themselves true.


This isn't spelling the end of capitalism.

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Bombadil
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Postby Bombadil » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:59 pm

Amazingly the Hang Seng is up by 1.84% today.. although it's dropped by more than 2000 points since March 5th.
Eldest, that's what I am...Tom remembers the first raindrop and the first acorn...he knew the dark under the stars when it was fearless — before the Dark Lord came from Outside..

十年

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Krasny-Volny
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Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Krasny-Volny » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:59 pm

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:I'm going to sell every stock I own! Wait. I don't own anything.


I guess if you don’t own anything, you don’t have anything to lose.
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Harkback Union
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Postby Harkback Union » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:11 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
Kaystein wrote:This is definitely the time to buy stocks. Anything reliable you buy now is going rebound and earn you a profit.

Not now. The market hasn’t hit bottom yet. At that point then you buy


"The market has corrected itself."
What they mean is, the suckers who were dumb enough to buy in late lost quite a bit.
Also the suckers who bought in early but were bumb enough to not sell when the market was clearly at the top.

Its just a casino. The house wins, everybody loses.
If you ever buy a stock, you buy it in a company you trust to earn dividents for you. Not because its gonna go up or down. Just ignore all that or you'll die of heart failure 35.

Whats gonna happen next?
Who the hell knows?
There is plenty of room for stocks to plummet, companies to lose money.
CEO's been pushing profits NOW over profits LATER for 20+ years.
Governments been pushing tax breaks NOW over NOT HAVING 100% GDP TO DEBT RATIO.
That's not sensible economics. None of this makes any sense. Since 2008 we are in uncharted territory. And there is no turning back.

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Costa Fierro
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Postby Costa Fierro » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:50 pm

I'm kinda hoping this actually crashes properly, and isn't just a blip on the radar.
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Saiwania
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Postby Saiwania » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:52 pm

Thermodolia wrote:Not now. The market hasn’t hit bottom yet. At that point then you buy


It's impossible to tell when the market will reach its lowest level, just as its impossible to truly accurately predict when the market will peak (without insider information). So people have to buy low and sell high when they can.
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Unstoppable Empire of Doom
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Postby Unstoppable Empire of Doom » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:04 pm

Bombadil wrote:Trading on Wall Street was frozen within minutes of the market opening as the system to buy and sell shares failed to keep pace with events.

That's not what happened. It's a sort of fail safe the US government set up where if the market collapses too fast they shut it down for 10 minutes. If it continues they shut it down for another 10 minutes. If it still falls at such an absurd rate they shut it down for the day. It is partly due to the prevalence of automated trading which can, and has, caused flash crashing which could wipe out trillions in minutes.
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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:14 pm

Costa Fierro wrote:I'm kinda hoping this actually crashes properly, and isn't just a blip on the radar.


Me too.

EDIT:

Well, looks like it was just a blip.
Last edited by Cisairse on Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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An Alan Smithee Nation
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Postby An Alan Smithee Nation » Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:47 am

Saudi Arabia must be in a bit of a tight spot. Oil price dropping, Saudi Aramco share price dipping below its IPO price, people will be losing their heads.
Everything is intertwinkled

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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:49 am

An Alan Smithee Nation wrote:Saudi Arabia must be in a bit of a tight spot. Oil price dropping, Saudi Aramco share price dipping below its IPO price, people will be losing their heads.


As long as oil costs at least $5 a barrel, SA is making a net profit on it.
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An Alan Smithee Nation
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Postby An Alan Smithee Nation » Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:06 am

Cisairse wrote:
An Alan Smithee Nation wrote:Saudi Arabia must be in a bit of a tight spot. Oil price dropping, Saudi Aramco share price dipping below its IPO price, people will be losing their heads.


As long as oil costs at least $5 a barrel, SA is making a net profit on it.


Even so, drops in price and demand cannot be comfortable for them.
Everything is intertwinkled

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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:24 am

Harkback Union wrote:
Uiiop wrote:Ain't the transactions fees and errors make that not worth it?


Crypto, Precious metals, foreign currency, none of these are safe. You could lose your money TOMORROW. Sure, you can win big too. But then what? You don't wanna sell yet, why would you, it could go SOO much higher!!
And then... its going down again... really fast. Oh no. Sorry. You're broke.

Also if you buy gold... you don't buy gold. Nobody ever buys gold. You just buy papers about owning gold. If gold prices skyrocketed and you want to sell your gold (you don't actually have), you realize you were scammed. Cause you don't have the gold, do you? Nope. Nobody ever has any gold, except in fairy tales. My Grandpa's uncle used to tell me about jewelry they had made of gold they pawned in to pay for the loan on their model-T, that's the last they've seen gold.

Most people buy silver anyway
Male, Jewish, lives somewhere in AZ, Disabled US Military Veteran, Oorah!, I'm GAY!
I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
Click for Da Funies

RIP Dya

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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:28 am

Harkback Union wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:Not now. The market hasn’t hit bottom yet. At that point then you buy


"The market has corrected itself."
What they mean is, the suckers who were dumb enough to buy in late lost quite a bit.
Also the suckers who bought in early but were bumb enough to not sell when the market was clearly at the top.

Its just a casino. The house wins, everybody loses.
If you ever buy a stock, you buy it in a company you trust to earn dividents for you. Not because its gonna go up or down. Just ignore all that or you'll die of heart failure 35.

Whats gonna happen next?
Who the hell knows?
There is plenty of room for stocks to plummet, companies to lose money.
CEO's been pushing profits NOW over profits LATER for 20+ years.
Governments been pushing tax breaks NOW over NOT HAVING 100% GDP TO DEBT RATIO.
That's not sensible economics. None of this makes any sense. Since 2008 we are in uncharted territory. And there is no turning back.

You don’t have to explain how the stock market works to me. I know how it works. What I’m saying is that the market hasn’t started to bottom out yet. It would be stupid to buy now rather than wait a month and buy stocks at even a cheaper price
Male, Jewish, lives somewhere in AZ, Disabled US Military Veteran, Oorah!, I'm GAY!
I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
Click for Da Funies

RIP Dya

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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:30 am

Cisairse wrote:
Costa Fierro wrote:I'm kinda hoping this actually crashes properly, and isn't just a blip on the radar.


Me too.

EDIT:

Well, looks like it was just a blip.

We’ll see when the markets open at 9
Male, Jewish, lives somewhere in AZ, Disabled US Military Veteran, Oorah!, I'm GAY!
I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
Click for Da Funies

RIP Dya

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Washington Resistance Army
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:40 am

Fartsniffage wrote:Just shut down the markets. You can't stop people trading in country clubs and the like but it would stabilise things until we know the outcome of the virus.

Nothing has really changed here except confidence. Microsoft still has all its infrastructure and people. Why should it be worth less today than two weeks ago? Stop the slide and wait until people calm down a bit.


Pretty much this, it's just a bunch of dumbasses panicking and making things worse for everyone.

On that note though, buy up if you can. A lot of really safe stocks that will regain their value have fallen for no reason but hysteria.
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