Assad Government kills 34 Turkish Troops.

[Novus America]

Of course everyone knows Syria has been wracked by warfare for years.
The Assad government which has gained the upper hand using Russian and Iranian troops has been attempting to eliminate Turkish backed rebels in the Northwest in a recent offensive. Turkey has sent forces to support said rebels.

Now we have reports that Syria government air strikes have killed 34 Turkish troops today.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKCN20L32S

The Turkish government says it has struck back, “neutralizing” some 1,700 Assad government troops.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailys ... a/news/amp
These strikes include Latakia, site of a major Russian base.

Russian and Turkish relationships have been on a rollercoaster lately, going from near war to acting like best friends.
So as a result while I think this is a very dangerous situation I imagine neither Erdogan or Assad/Putin want a full blown war, and will stop short of one, but this could get out of hand.

So what does everyone think? Is this going to blow over like previous (but less severe) Turkish actions around Syria that brought it into conflict with Assad and Russia?

Will Turkey, Russia or Assad dangerously escalate the situation?

Please note this is a developing story, and please add new sources and information as it becomes available.

[Nakena]

Oh fuck. This is bad news.

War might be happening, unless both sides descalate it quickly. This may grow big too, given the russian presence in Syria.

[The Lone Alliance]

I guess Turkey is realizing that a side effect of Imperialism is your soldiers tend to die.

Assad's made a lot of advances over the past month or so in taking back the Idlib region.

They even have enough to finally open up the main highway 5 to Aleppo which was likely the main objective all along, supposedly the rebels are trying to take the road back but it's being hard fought over.

Not sure if he's still planning on taking the whole region or is just planning on stopping after driving them back into Idlib proper.

Though I bet Turkey is starting to regret their plan to ship Syrian rebels to fight in Libya.

[The Black Forrest]

Hmmm. Maybe we should have had a deterrence like using the Armenians?

[The East Marches II]

Oh fuck. This is bad news.

War might be happening, unless both sides descalate it quickly. This may grow big too, given the russian presence in Syria.

Indeed. America has already written a blank check :^)

The Europeans can be easily cowed by threatening to flood them with refugees. It is going to get spicy barring a last minute face saving climb down for all sides.

Hmmm. Maybe we should have had a deterrence like using the Armenians?

They are a Russian sat state tbh.

[The East Marches II]

The pressure on Assad's troops is worrisome. If the Turks strike hard enough, it would put slot of hard won gains at risk. Assad has incorporated formerly hostile militias to guard rear areas. He only has a set amount of quality assault troops. A disaster might throw the whole business in the air again. Which is an outcome I think everyone wants to avoid.

[Novus America]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ahvalnews. ... nist%3famp

Even before this there was some speculation that Turkey might close the Bosporus Strait to Russian ships and ban all Russia flights over its territory which could seriously threaten Russian logistics.
This would seem to be a card Turkey could play.

[Nakena]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ahvalnews.com/turkey-russia/turkey-might-close-bosporus-straits-russia-based-montreux-agreement-columnist%3famp

Even before this there was some speculation that Turkey might close the Bosporus Strait to Russian ships and ban all Russia flights over its territory which could seriously threaten Russian logistics.
This would seem to be a card Turkey could play.

Russia would react extremly sensitive to the closure of the Bosperus straits. Also afaik they can't without very serious reasons according to some treaty.

[The Lone Alliance]

The pressure on Assad's troops is worrisome. If the Turks strike hard enough, it would put slot of hard won gains at risk. Assad has incorporated formerly hostile militias to guard rear areas. He only has a set amount of quality assault troops. A disaster might throw the whole business in the air again. Which is an outcome I think everyone wants to avoid.

The Turks can't strike hard enough though, there is limited elments they can do on airstrikes wise and missile strikes wise.

They can put out some good propaganda pieces but the only real way they'd be able to stop Assad would be to go all in, and they're not ready for that yet.

And they won't be supported there either.

Russia would react extremly sensitive to the closure of the Bosperus straits. Also afaik they can't without very serious reasons according to some treaty.

And Turkey isn't going to open fire on Russian ships trying to run the strait and risk a world war with them as the aggressior.

Especially since most of NATO is already pissed off enough at Turkey as it is.

[The Black Forrest]

Oh fuck. This is bad news.

War might be happening, unless both sides descalate it quickly. This may grow big too, given the russian presence in Syria.

Indeed. America has already written a blank check :^)

The Europeans can be easily cowed by threatening to flood them with refugees. It is going to get spicy barring a last minute face saving climb down for all sides.

Hmmm. Maybe we should have had a deterrence like using the Armenians?

They are a Russian sat state tbh.

The Syrians? Yup.

The Armenians? Trump may have moved them to the Russians since America “cut and ran like fuck” on them. They were friendly..........now?......probably not so much.

[The East Marches II]

Indeed. America has already written a blank check :^)

The Europeans can be easily cowed by threatening to flood them with refugees. It is going to get spicy barring a last minute face saving climb down for all sides.



They are a Russian sat state tbh.

The Syrians? Yup.

The Armenians? Trump may have moved them to the Russians since America “cut and ran like fuck” on them. They were friendly..........now?......probably not so much.

Anon, they have always been a Russian sat state since the end of the Soviet Union. I have to disagree with you. They are locked in a frozen conflict and arms build up with Azerbaijan. They turned to the traditional backers of the Orthodox. Uncle Sam backed Azerbaijan and Turkey who used to oppose the Soviet Union on that front for us.

Edit: I think you are thinking of Georgia

[The East Marches II]

The pressure on Assad's troops is worrisome. If the Turks strike hard enough, it would put slot of hard won gains at risk. Assad has incorporated formerly hostile militias to guard rear areas. He only has a set amount of quality assault troops. A disaster might throw the whole business in the air again. Which is an outcome I think everyone wants to avoid.

The Turks can't strike hard enough though, there is limited elments they can do on airstrikes wise and missile strikes wise.

They can put out some good propaganda pieces but the only real way they'd be able to stop Assad would be to go all in, and they're not ready for that yet.

And they won't be supported there either.

We already cut them the check for support.

Re doing hard strikes. There is this really cool thing you might not have heard of. It delivers the same HE load as 250 lb bomb, in all weather conditions. Turkey does have a fighter pilot shortage no doubt. They also lack their old core of NCOs and officers post purge. However, this does not preclude their ability to seriously damage Assad who is reliant on much worse quality troops with far worse kit.

[Novus America]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ahvalnews.com/turkey-russia/turkey-might-close-bosporus-straits-russia-based-montreux-agreement-columnist%3famp

Even before this there was some speculation that Turkey might close the Bosporus Strait to Russian ships and ban all Russia flights over its territory which could seriously threaten Russian logistics.
This would seem to be a card Turkey could play.

Russia would react extremly sensitive to the closure of the Bosperus straits. Also afaik they can't without very serious reasons according to some treaty.

They would have to claim imminent danger of war.
But this probably suffices.

Of course Russia would definitely be quite upset.
They might either force Assad to back down OR try to force the issue by sailing through anyways, daring Turkey to stop them.

Turkey’s big problem is it already burned ties with NATO (ironically by in part buying Russian SAMs) but also with pretty much every other country in the region.

[The East Marches II]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ahvalnews.com/turkey-russia/turkey-might-close-bosporus-straits-russia-based-montreux-agreement-columnist%3famp

Even before this there was some speculation that Turkey might close the Bosporus Strait to Russian ships and ban all Russia flights over its territory which could seriously threaten Russian logistics.
This would seem to be a card Turkey could play.

Russia would react extremly sensitive to the closure of the Bosperus straits. Also afaik they can't without very serious reasons according to some treaty.

The Turkish government is neither behaving rationally nor thinking things through. They could go this route tbh.

[The Lone Alliance]

Apparently rumor has it Turkey is threatening to flood Europe with Refugees because the west isn't jumping on board to condemn Assad for this.

[The Black Forrest]

The Syrians? Yup.

The Armenians? Trump may have moved them to the Russians since America “cut and ran like fuck” on them. They were friendly..........now?......probably not so much.

Anon, they have always been a Russian sat state since the end of the Soviet Union. I have to disagree with you. They are locked in a frozen conflict and arms build up with Azerbaijan. They turned to the traditional backers of the Orthodox. Uncle Sam backed Azerbaijan and Turkey who used to oppose the Soviet Union on that front for us.

Edit: I think you are thinking of Georgia

Well? Maybe I could have explained it better. It would have been better to say we made in roads with them. Why else fight? Why have our guys with them?

What ever points were scored; Trump nixed that quick. The next time some shlub says “hey lets fight....” they will say fuck off and rightly so. You can’t trust the Americans it seems.

[The Black Forrest]

Apparently rumor has it Turkey is threatening to flood Europe with Refugees because the west isn't jumping on board to condemn Assad for this.

Hmm. Turkey still wants to join the EU. Unless they are done with that; doubtful.....

[The East Marches II]

Apparently rumor has it Turkey is threatening to flood Europe with Refugees because the west isn't jumping on board to condemn Assad for this.

Hmm. Turkey still wants to join the EU. Unless they are done with that; doubtful.....

That was finished years ago old boy. It was those reforms to join the EU which gave Turkey Erdogan. That path is closed now and all political parties in Turkey know it.

[The Black Forrest]

Redacted.

Misread the post......

[Washington Resistance Army]

Apparently rumor has it Turkey is threatening to flood Europe with Refugees because the west isn't jumping on board to condemn Assad for this.

That's been the Sword of Damocles Turkey has held for a while now, it's nothing new.

[The Lone Alliance]

Apparently rumor has it Turkey is threatening to flood Europe with Refugees because the west isn't jumping on board to condemn Assad for this.

Hmm. Turkey still wants to join the EU. Unless they are done with that; doubtful.....

I don't think there's anyone foolish enough who still believes Turkey has a chance to be in the EU anymore.

[The East Marches II]

Apparently rumor has it Turkey is threatening to flood Europe with Refugees because the west isn't jumping on board to condemn Assad for this.

And they will because they are gutless cowards too scared to been seen to say no but unwilling to say yes.

Anon, they have always been a Russian sat state since the end of the Soviet Union. I have to disagree with you. They are locked in a frozen conflict and arms build up with Azerbaijan. They turned to the traditional backers of the Orthodox. Uncle Sam backed Azerbaijan and Turkey who used to oppose the Soviet Union on that front for us.

Edit: I think you are thinking of Georgia

Well? Maybe I could have explained it better. It would have been better to say we made in roads with them. Why else fight? Why have our guys with them?

What ever points were scored; Trump nixed that quick. The next time some shlub says “hey lets fight....” they will say fuck off and rightly so. You can’t trust the Americans it seems.

We were fighting with the Armenians? Perhaps I missed something, when did we do this? Not to say I don't believe but this is the first I've heard about.

[The East Marches II]

Apparently rumor has it Turkey is threatening to flood Europe with Refugees because the west isn't jumping on board to condemn Assad for this.

That's been the Sword of Damocles Turkey has held for a while now, it's nothing new.

The threat of new inflows is also driving Turkish strategic desperation. Contrary to what our well meaning friends on NS insist, they are a burden. Their preferential treatment has lead the vast majority of the country to resent them. Another million and a half on top of the nearly four million they have is an unacceptable outcome (to the Turkish leadership).

[The Black Forrest]

Apparently rumor has it Turkey is threatening to flood Europe with Refugees because the west isn't jumping on board to condemn Assad for this.

And they will because they are gutless cowards too scared to been seen to say no but unwilling to say yes.

Well? Maybe I could have explained it better. It would have been better to say we made in roads with them. Why else fight? Why have our guys with them?

What ever points were scored; Trump nixed that quick. The next time some shlub says “hey lets fight....” they will say fuck off and rightly so. You can’t trust the Americans it seems.

We were fighting with the Armenians? Perhaps I missed something, when did we do this? Not to say I don't believe but this is the first I've heard about.

No I didn’t mean we were fighting them. We got them to do the ground fighting and had people there for air strikes etc. Also a buffer against Turkey and the Russians.

Anyway. They may have be Russian friendly and trump made sure they stayed that way.

Best negotiator evah!

[The Lone Alliance]

That's been the Sword of Damocles Turkey has held for a while now, it's nothing new.

The threat of new inflows is also driving Turkish strategic desperation. Contrary to what our well meaning friends on NS insist, they are a burden. Their preferential treatment has lead the vast majority of the country to resent them. Another million and a half on top of the nearly four million they have is an unacceptable outcome.

This is likely the real reason they're wanting to open the borders, they need to get rid of the existing refugees to make room for the next wave of rebels and supporters.