2020 US General Election Thread V: Pandemic Postpones Polls

[Post War America]

Pot meet Kettle

I have never said people can’t vote for who they want but come the general party unity is very important

Only if your a Democrat. To me the Democrats are preferable to Republicans only in the way that Gonorrhea is slightly preferable to me than Syphilis. Unfortunately, the system we have allows only for two parties.

[Cisairse]

The Simple Reason the Left Won’t Stop Losing

This is an opinion piece from the NYT but it is accurate. The boldened is especially true:

How did the political left squander the opportunity that was the 2020 primary campaign?

The Trump presidency has created tremendous energy among progressives. More than half of Democratic voters now identify as liberal. Most favor “Medicare for all.” A growing number are unhappy with American capitalism.

This year’s campaign offered the prospect of transformational change, with a Democratic nominee who was more liberal than any in more than a half-century. Instead, the nominee now seems likely to be a moderate white grandfather who first ran for president more than 30 years ago and whose campaign promises a return to normalcy.

True, Bernie Sanders could make a comeback, but it would need to be a big one. Among people who voted on Super Tuesday itself — rather than voting early, before Joe Biden won South Carolina — Biden trounced Sanders. The race would have to change fundamentally for Sanders to win.

If he doesn’t, the obvious questions for progressives is what went wrong and how they can do better in the future. I think there are some clear answers — empirical answers that anybody, regardless of ideology, should be able to see. I’d encourage the next generation of progressive leaders to think about these issues with an open mind.

The biggest lesson is simply this: The American left doesn’t care enough about winning.

It’s an old problem, one that has long undermined left-wing movements in this country. They have often prioritized purity over victory. They wouldn’t necessarily put it these terms, but they have chosen to lose on their terms rather than win with compromise.

You can see this pattern today in the ways that many progressive activists misread public opinion. Their answer to almost every question of political strategy is to insist that Americans are a profoundly progressive people who haven’t yet been inspired to vote the way they think. The way to win, these progressives claim, is to go left, always.

Immigration? Most Americans want more of it. Abortion? This is a pro-choice country. Fracking? People now understand its downsides. Strict gun control? Affirmative action? A wealth tax? Free college? Medicare for all? Widely available marijuana? Americans want it all, activists claim.

This belief helps explain why so many 2020 candidates hoping to win the progressive vote — including Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris — embraced ideas like a ban on fracking and the decriminalization of the border. The left persuaded itself that those policies were both morally righteous and politically savvy. To reject any one of them was to risk being labeled a neoliberal sellout.

The thing is, progressive activists are right about public opinion on some of these issues. Most Americans do favor higher taxes on the rich, marijuana legalization and additional gun control. But too many progressives aren’t doing an honest analysis of the politics. They are instead committing what the journalist Matthew Yglesias has called “the pundit fallacy.” They are conflating their own opinions with smart political advice. They are choosing to believe what they want to believe.

They often do so by pointing to polls with favorably worded, intricate questions — and by ignoring evidence to the contrary. Affirmative action, for example, typically loses ballot initiatives. Polls show that most Americans favor some abortion restrictions and oppose the elimination of private health insurance.

By designing campaign strategies for the America they want, rather than the one that exists, progressives have done a favor to their political opponents. They have refused to make tactical retreats, which is why they keep losing.

I think Warren may have been the person most damaged by this dynamic in 2020. (And, yes, she was also hurt by sexism.) She could have positioned herself as the candidate who excited much of the left but was more acceptable to the center-left than Sanders. Instead, she mimicked Sanders, making many Democratic voters who were rooting for her worried that, like him, she couldn’t win a general election.

Or look back at the 2018 midterms. In competitive districts, candidates backed by progressive groups like Justice Democrats and Our Revolution were shut out. They lost in either the primaries or the general election. There isn’t a single Sanders-like member of Congress from a purple or red district. There are dozens of moderates.

Remember: The policy positions of Sanders, Warren and other progressives — on Medicare for all, for instance — are often closer to the views of most Democratic voters than the moderate position is. Yet many Democrats spurn the progressive candidate. These voters care more about winning than about perfect policy agreement, and they support the candidate whom they (correctly) see as more in tune with the full electorate.

The progressive wing of the party has still had a good few years, pushing the party left in multiple ways. Even Biden’s platform is strikingly liberal. But if progressives aren’t satisfied being influential runners-up, I would suggest three broad principles.

First, don’t become PINOs (progressives in name only). Decide on a few core ways in which you think moderate Democrats are wrong, and stake out different positions.

Second, stop believing your own spin. Analyze public opinion objectively. Acknowledge when a progressive position brings electoral costs.

Finally, start testing some new political strategies. A single break with orthodoxy can send a larger signal. It can make a candidate look flexible, open-minded, less partisan and more respectful of people with different views.

Maybe the new approach should involve economic progressivism and cultural moderation, which happens to reflect American public opinion. Maybe it involves a different approach on immigration — insisting on a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants but also a slowdown of future immigration. Maybe it means announcing that fracking and nuclear energy are crucial to fighting climate change. Or maybe it involves finding more progressive candidates who hunt or talk about their relationship with Jesus Christ and have some related policy positions.

I realize that political compromise usually feels unpleasant. But I’d ask: How does losing feel?

As luck would have it, the Democratic Party has a loyal group of voters who, though hardly monolithic, tend to be more pragmatic and less wishful than progressive activists. They also tend to be culturally moderate, as many swing voters are.

This group, of course, is black voters, especially those middle-aged and older. They just swung the 2020 nomination away from Sanders and toward Biden. Until progressives figure out how to do better with black voters, they are going to have a hard time winning. And the same strategies that will help progressives win more black voters in the primaries are also likely to win over more swing voters in a general election.

And it's problem that won't be solved until there's some form of compromise: because a majority of Americans care about winning rather than the perfect policy agreement. Sure, they would like it, but that's impossible right now, especially with the elected officials currently in power.

Oh, absolutely. It's why there's 1000 different communist parties in the US that all splintered off of each other. It reminds of this satirical song about leftist disunity.

American leftists be like: "We're not the Judean People's Front, we're the People's Front of Judea! The only people we hate more than the Romans are the Judean People's Front!"

Tbh that's just a side effect of the two party system. Meanwhile in France they have medium-sized-tent parties in addition to radical elements, all of which are viable in some form or another.

[Cisairse]

I have never said people can’t vote for who they want but come the general party unity is very important

Only if your a Democrat. To me the Democrats are preferable to Republicans only in the way that Gonorrhea is slightly preferable to me than Syphilis. Unfortunately, the system we have allows only for two parties.

To quote SNL, voting for Democrats is like using a condom during sex. I do it because I have to, not because it feels good.

[Major-Tom]

I have never said people can’t vote for who they want but come the general party unity is very important

Only if your a Democrat. To me the Democrats are preferable to Republicans only in the way that Gonorrhea is slightly preferable to me than Syphilis. Unfortunately, the system we have allows only for two parties.

I think Michael Che was the one who said something like this, but;

Democrats are like condoms, I'll use 'em cause they're safer, but it doesn't feel good.

[Cisairse]

Hah, sniped.

[Major-Tom]

Hah, sniped.

You bastard, nice job.

[Czechostan]

Oh, absolutely. It's why there's 1000 different communist parties in the US that all splintered off of each other. It reminds of this satirical song about leftist disunity.

American leftists be like: "We're not the Judean People's Front, we're the People's Front of Judea! The only people we hate more than the Romans are the Judean People's Front!"

Tbh that's just a side effect of the two party system. Meanwhile in France they have medium-sized-tent parties in addition to radical elements, all of which are viable in some form or another.

Well, I think of a lot of it comes back to the nature of leftism. Leftists tend to be anti-hierarchy, so they're much more willing to split off of groups they disagree with, especially if the group is perceived to be "ideologically impure." Which is why during the Spanish Civil War, you had dozens of different leftist factions fighting each other as much as fighting the Nationalists. Or why there's so many different Marxist tendencies that all hate each other.

[San Lumen]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CollinsWilmo ... gr%5Etweet

Helena mayor Wilmot Collins has announced he is dropping out of the senate primary in Montana and endorsing Governor Steve Bullock

[Cisairse]

Tbh that's just a side effect of the two party system. Meanwhile in France they have medium-sized-tent parties in addition to radical elements, all of which are viable in some form or another.

Well, I think of a lot of it comes back to the nature of leftism. Leftists tend to be anti-hierarchy, so they're much more willing to split off of groups they disagree with, especially if the group is perceived to be "ideologically impure." Which is why during the Spanish Civil War, you had dozens of different leftist factions fighting each other as much as fighting the Nationalists. Or why there's so many different Marxist tendencies that all hate each other.

And yet, this isn't a huge issue in Europe.

The problem with having a nation with 329,227,746 people and 2 political parties is that either your ideas are agreeable to sixty million people or they might as well not exist.

[Valrifell]

Did they win the most electoral college votes?

That's another huge flaw in polling - they act as if the popular vote determines the president rather than the electoral college.

The EC isn't going anywhere. Deal with it.

I never said that they did and I didn't say the EC should be abolished.

Some people really be out here literally looking to get smug, huh.

[Cisairse]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CollinsWilmot/status/1237147675054600192?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Helena mayor Wilmot Collins has announced he is dropping out of the senate primary in Montana and endorsing Governor Steve Bullock

Yes go Steve!

[Pacomia]

Just leveled the poll by switching my vote from Bernie to Biden. I didn't realize which states were having their primaries today - definitely a Biden crowd. Now there are 100 votes for each.

[Ifreann]

Did they win the most electoral college votes?

That's another huge flaw in polling - they act as if the popular vote determines the president rather than the electoral college.

The EC isn't going anywhere. Deal with it.

I never said that they did and I didn't say the EC should be abolished.

But it should.

---

Only if your a Democrat. To me the Democrats are preferable to Republicans only in the way that Gonorrhea is slightly preferable to me than Syphilis. Unfortunately, the system we have allows only for two parties.

To quote SNL, voting for Democrats is like using a condom during sex. I do it because I have to, not because it feels good.

Joe Biden - Ribbed for her pleasure.

[Vassenor]

Also Romney.

It's worth noting though that Gore and Clinton did win.

Did they win the most electoral college votes?

That's another huge flaw in polling - they act as if the popular vote determines the president rather than the electoral college.

The EC isn't going anywhere. Deal with it.

You mean like Trump failed to in 2012?

[Saiwania]

Electing Joe Biden = A complete sell out of America to China and other plutocratic interests. How can people possibly want neoliberals in charge?

[Cisairse]

Electing Joe Biden = A complete sell out of America to China and other plutocratic interests. How can people possibly want neoliberals in charge?

At least neolibs won't take away health care

[Major-Tom]

Electing Joe Biden = A complete sell out of America to China and other plutocratic interests. How can people possibly want neoliberals in charge?

I just feel bad for the guy at this point, I don't know if he's all there and if that assumption is correct, it reflects very poorly on those propping him up.

[Saiwania]

At least neolibs won't take away health care

The ACA isn't great policy. Only the preexisting condition people ever benefited from it. Its failing in terms of price because it doesn't work. People should want the healthcare system to collapse because that strengthens and not weakens the impetus for single payer.

[Pacomia]

Electing Joe Biden = A complete sell out of America to China and other plutocratic interests. How can people possibly want neoliberals in charge?

To be fair, neither Biden nor Sanders nor Trump are great options. I still like Bill Weld.

[Czechostan]

Well, I think of a lot of it comes back to the nature of leftism. Leftists tend to be anti-hierarchy, so they're much more willing to split off of groups they disagree with, especially if the group is perceived to be "ideologically impure." Which is why during the Spanish Civil War, you had dozens of different leftist factions fighting each other as much as fighting the Nationalists. Or why there's so many different Marxist tendencies that all hate each other.

And yet, this isn't a huge issue in Europe.

The problem with having a nation with 329,227,746 people and 2 political parties is that either your ideas are agreeable to sixty million people or they might as well not exist.

Perhaps. But the problem is still there, especially among leftists, who prefer to be at each other's throats than fighting people on the right. Admittedly, I'm not too familiar with the European left, but I highly doubt all the Marxists and democratic socialists and libertarian socialists have reached a consensus and decided to join the same party. Quickly reviewing the politics of Britain, their communists have their share of infighting too, different parties splintering off into smaller and smaller units. No amount of proportional representation can help people determined to get their ideological purity.

[Cisairse]

At least neolibs won't take away health care

The ACA isn't great policy. Only the preexisting condition people ever benefited from it. Its failing in terms of price because it doesn't work. People should want the healthcare system to collapse because that strengthens and not weakens the impetus for single payer.

I will vote in favor of my interests and the interests of my loved ones.

[Tarsonis]

The debates are gonna be fun this year.




https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... gZOkMWnQ6I

[Saturna1ia]

No one is obligated to support your choice of a demented candidate whose entire shtick is more of the same. Democrats should learn to live with the fact that if they nominate shit, they get shit.

So it’s the voters fault for picking who they want?

If you actually believe most Democrats are voting for who they "want" then you've gone even further into the Democratic Party's bubble of delusion. Few, if any, are energetic and openly singing about voting for Biden to their friends and family before heading to the polls. There's been more enthusiasm at the dropout endorsement rallies, people just looking for an admin spot, than all of Biden's own voter rallies combined.

The only voters who are by and large picking who they want are the energized "four more years!" Trump voters, and that is why they have a real chance to win again. Because as 2016 showed, it's not popular support that wins the US presidency, it's enthusiasm. Trump has it. Sanders has it. Biden does not. As goes Hillary, so goes Joe.

[San Lumen]

https://www.kctv5.com/politics/poll-wor ... 21669.html

Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas was turned away from the polls early this morning after a poll worker couldn't find his name in the system in a precent he voted in last year. A spokesperson said the poll worker reversed his name when inputting it. Why was he turned away then? Reverse it and they would have found it. I see this problem all the time when working elections. Older poll workers who dont know how to operate the system or don't pay attention at seminars.

[Washington Resistance Army]

The debates are gonna be fun this year.




https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... gZOkMWnQ6I

"You're working for me, man!" the worker said.
"I'm not working for you," Biden said. "Don't be such a horse's ass."

Truly I hope our liberal friends call out Biden's shockingly unpresidential behavior!