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2020 US General Election Thread IV: The Battle Begins

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Who do you think will win South Carolina?

Sanders
27
59%
Warren
0
No votes
Biden
18
39%
Buttigieg
0
No votes
Klobuchar
1
2%
Steyer
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 46

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:07 pm

Cisairse wrote:
Zurkerx wrote:Now we're getting more polls, two from Iowa:

Sanders leads Biden by 9 points in Iowa. The break down:

Sander 30%; Biden 21%; Klobuchar 13%; Warren 11%; Buttigieg 10%. I'm surprised with Kloubhcar's numbers: she has been around 6-8%, but Buttigieg's surprises me more: He's fifth in this poll, which most other polls don't show. This is an Emerson Poll.

Yet, this poll differs from this one, which shows Biden leading in Iowa and Buttigieg polling where he has been. The break down:

Biden 25%; Sanders 19%; Buttigieg 18%; Warren 13%. No one else hit double digits. So, two polls with two different results. However, it seems Warren is consistent and has stagnated or declined. This is a Suffolk Poll. Both polls interviewed between 450-500 Likely Caucus Goers; MOE is 4.4-4.6%.

Needless to say, polls are showing Sanders leading but with mix results: Biden gets a few there and there.


Brokered convention, here we come.


I don't think so, looking at the next few states, Sanders will likely win New Hampshire while Biden will win both Nevada and South Carolina. After Super Tuesday, it'll be a two-horse race.
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South Odreria 2
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Postby South Odreria 2 » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:08 pm

Zurkerx wrote:Now we're getting more polls, two from Iowa:

Sanders leads Biden by 9 points in Iowa. The break down:

Sander 30%; Biden 21%; Klobuchar 13%; Warren 11%; Buttigieg 10%. I'm surprised with Kloubhcar's numbers: she has been around 6-8%, but Buttigieg's surprises me more: He's fifth in this poll, which most other polls don't show. This is an Emerson Poll.

Yet, this poll differs from this one, which shows Biden leading in Iowa and Buttigieg polling where he has been. The break down:

Biden 25%; Sanders 19%; Buttigieg 18%; Warren 13%. No one else hit double digits. So, two polls with two different results. However, it seems Warren is consistent and has stagnated or declined. This is a Suffolk Poll. Both polls interviewed between 450-500 Likely Caucus Goers; MOE is 4.4-4.6%.

Needless to say, polls are showing Sanders leading but with mix results: Biden gets a few there and there.

I don't really believe the Emerson poll, but it's kinda nice I guess.

^^538 forecast has Sanders more likely to win in Nevada. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire he wins Nevada and the nomination.
Last edited by South Odreria 2 on Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Zurkerx
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Postby Zurkerx » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:11 pm

Shrillland wrote:
Cisairse wrote:
Brokered convention, here we come.


I don't think so, looking at the next few states, Sanders will likely win New Hampshire while Biden will win both Nevada and South Carolina. After Super Tuesday, it'll be a two-horse race.


Indeed. Iowa is a wild card and Sanders will win NH though Nevada can go either way too. SC seems to be in Biden's hands unless he really chokes his campaign.

South Odreria 2 wrote:I don't really believe the Emerson poll, but it's kinda nice I guess.


It seems to be an outlier as other polls show a much closer race though it does trend in the direction of Sanders gaining while Warren declines; Buttigieg and Biden maintain.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:14 pm

Cisairse wrote:
Zurkerx wrote:Now we're getting more polls, two from Iowa:

Sanders leads Biden by 9 points in Iowa. The break down:

Sander 30%; Biden 21%; Klobuchar 13%; Warren 11%; Buttigieg 10%. I'm surprised with Kloubhcar's numbers: she has been around 6-8%, but Buttigieg's surprises me more: He's fifth in this poll, which most other polls don't show. This is an Emerson Poll.

Yet, this poll differs from this one, which shows Biden leading in Iowa and Buttigieg polling where he has been. The break down:

Biden 25%; Sanders 19%; Buttigieg 18%; Warren 13%. No one else hit double digits. So, two polls with two different results. However, it seems Warren is consistent and has stagnated or declined. This is a Suffolk Poll. Both polls interviewed between 450-500 Likely Caucus Goers; MOE is 4.4-4.6%.

Needless to say, polls are showing Sanders leading but with mix results: Biden gets a few there and there.


Brokered convention, here we come.

We shall see but we'd better hope its not as that would guarantee Trump a second term

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Jack Thomas Lang
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Postby Jack Thomas Lang » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:16 pm

Is it just me, or does the American election season take too damn long?

How much time before the Democratic nominee is actually chosen?
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Telconi
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Postby Telconi » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:17 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Cisairse wrote:
Brokered convention, here we come.

We shall see but we'd better hope its not as that would guarantee Trump a second term


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Postby Farnhamia » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:17 pm

Jack Thomas Lang wrote:Is it just me, or does the American election season take too damn long?

How much time before the Democratic nominee is actually chosen?

The convention is from July 13th through the 16th, but a clear winner could emerge well before that, in the late spring.
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:17 pm

Jack Thomas Lang wrote:Is it just me, or does the American election season take too damn long?

How much time before the Democratic nominee is actually chosen?


In all likelihood, we should have the answer sometime in late March or early April as to who it'll be. They'll be officially nominated this summer at the convention.
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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:17 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Cisairse wrote:
Brokered convention, here we come.

We shall see but we'd better hope its not as that would guarantee Trump a second term


Maybe we can pull a 1968 and nominate somebody completely random. Like fuck it let's just make Al Gore president. Or Oprah. Or Marianne Williamson.
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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:19 pm

Jack Thomas Lang wrote:Is it just me, or does the American election season take too damn long?

How much time before the Democratic nominee is actually chosen?


Considering the size of the country it's not that long. The primary process takes place from February though June, although due to the nature of the race a presumptive winner will likely emerge long before June. Then the two candidates will have the summer and autumn to campaign for the election in early November.
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Cannot think of a name
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Postby Cannot think of a name » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:19 pm

Jack Thomas Lang wrote:Is it just me, or does the American election season take too damn long?

How much time before the Democratic nominee is actually chosen?

It feels that way because a bunch of puppy hating impatient folks can't keep their pants on and start these kinds of discussions before the ballots are even cast for the previous race.

Mark my fucking words, someone will start asking about the 2024 election before the 2020 is ever settled.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:21 pm

Cisairse wrote:
San Lumen wrote:We shall see but we'd better hope its not as that would guarantee Trump a second term


Maybe we can pull a 1968 and nominate somebody completely random. Like fuck it let's just make Al Gore president. Or Oprah. Or Marianne Williamson.

I wish Oprah would have run.

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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:21 pm

Cannot think of a name wrote:
Jack Thomas Lang wrote:Is it just me, or does the American election season take too damn long?

How much time before the Democratic nominee is actually chosen?

It feels that way because a bunch of puppy hating impatient folks can't keep their pants on and start these kinds of discussions before the ballots are even cast for the previous race.

Mark my fucking words, someone will start asking about the 2024 election before the 2020 is ever settled.


Hell, John Delaney announced his candidacy for president on July 28, 2017.

Also, Biden was literally asked whether or not he would run for president in 2024 during one of the debates. And he isn't even the oldest candidate.
Last edited by Cisairse on Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Farnhamia
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Postby Farnhamia » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:24 pm

Telconi wrote:
San Lumen wrote:We shall see but we'd better hope its not as that would guarantee Trump a second term


Democrat's being divisive is truly the greatest gift to Republicans.

Will Rogers wrote:Democrats never agree on anything, that's why they're Democrats. If they agreed with each other, they would be Republicans.
Freedom ... or cake. ~ Ashmoria (RIP)
Make Earth Great Again: Stop Continental Drift!
And Jesus was a sailor when he walked upon the water ...
"Make yourself at home, Frank. Hit somebody." RIP Don Rickles
My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right. ~ Carl Schurz
<Sigh> NSG...where even the atheists are Augustinians. ~ The Archregimancy
Now the foot is on the other hand ~ Kannap
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:28 pm

It's not just Democrats, it's the curse of the Left worldwide, a ridiculous superiority complex where we all think that we have The Only Way to Enlightenment and cancel deviationists.
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South Odreria 2
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Postby South Odreria 2 » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:29 pm

2024 is already being discussed, for the Republicans at least. There is Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ivanka / Donald Trump Jr, Ron DeSantis, and Tucker Carlson.
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Talvezout
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Postby Talvezout » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:30 pm

hey check out my dispatches and factbooks!
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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:31 pm

South Odreria 2 wrote:2024 is already being discussed, for the Republicans at least. There is Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ivanka / Donald Trump Jr, Ron DeSantis, and Tucker Carlson.


Tucker Carlson? Good lord. Might as well nominate Newt Gingrich again just for the hell of it.
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Telconi
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Postby Telconi » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:32 pm

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Telconi
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Postby Telconi » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:33 pm

South Odreria 2 wrote:2024 is already being discussed, for the Republicans at least. There is Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ivanka / Donald Trump Jr, Ron DeSantis, and Tucker Carlson.


10/10 Would vote for President Tucker.
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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:33 pm



Why does Tom Steyer consistently feel like one of those spin-off TV shows that isn't bad, but isn't nearly as good as the main show it span off from
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Kargintina the Third
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Postby Kargintina the Third » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:34 pm

South Odreria 2 wrote:2024 is already being discussed, for the Republicans at least. There is Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ivanka / Donald Trump Jr, Ron DeSantis, and Tucker Carlson.

Mike Pence is a terrible choice unless all you want to win is Evangelicals.
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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:35 pm

Kargintina the Third wrote:
South Odreria 2 wrote:2024 is already being discussed, for the Republicans at least. There is Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ivanka / Donald Trump Jr, Ron DeSantis, and Tucker Carlson.

Mike Pence is a terrible choice unless all you want to win is Evangelicals.


I mean if the ongoing Democratic primary is any indication, Pence will immediately win over Trump's base on nature of being Trump's VP.

Of course, I don't know how the politics of that will play out if Ivanka or Don Jr. run.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:39 pm

Kargintina the Third wrote:
South Odreria 2 wrote:2024 is already being discussed, for the Republicans at least. There is Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ivanka / Donald Trump Jr, Ron DeSantis, and Tucker Carlson.

Mike Pence is a terrible choice unless all you want to win is Evangelicals.

Thats part of the reason I hope Trump is convicted.

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The Sherpa Empire
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Postby The Sherpa Empire » Sun Jan 26, 2020 8:39 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Cisairse wrote:
Maybe we can pull a 1968 and nominate somebody completely random. Like fuck it let's just make Al Gore president. Or Oprah. Or Marianne Williamson.

I wish Oprah would have run.


Why, though?
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