2020 US General Election Thread IV: The Battle Begins

[Imperial Joseon]

Probably Buttigieg, even though he's disappointing.

Yeah, Biden and Buttigieg have polarizing policies, sadly enough.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

His went up, then dropped, and Buttigieg went up.

Yep. As for Buttigieg, if you're supporting Sanders, you want him to end up below 15% so he doesn't get delegates (at least, that's how I understand the rules working out).

Buttigieg will get delegates. Because he will get 15+ in at least one of the four congressional districts. District 2 should give him 2 delegates, district 4 should give him 1. Then a couple of at-large. It's really not much from a pool of 36 delegates.

Considering the polls, I think of Buttigieg's result in Iowa as an outlier. At most, a warning about midwestern rural states still to come. He notably failed to carry through in New Hampshire and now he's done badly in Nevada. Not saying he's finished, but that Sanders shouldn't see him as a threat.

[Imperial Joseon]

Yep. As for Buttigieg, if you're supporting Sanders, you want him to end up below 15% so he doesn't get delegates (at least, that's how I understand the rules working out).

Buttigieg will get delegates. Because he will get 15+ in at least one of the four congressional districts. District 2 should give him 2 delegates, district 4 should give him 1. Then a couple of at-large. It's really not much from a pool of 36 delegates.

Considering the polls, I think of Buttigieg's result in Iowa as an outlier. At most, a warning about midwestern rural states still to come. He notably failed to carry through in New Hampshire and now he's done badly in Nevada. Not saying he's finished, but that Sanders shouldn't see him as a threat.

It's basically Sanders versus Biden.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Buttigieg will get delegates. Because he will get 15+ in at least one of the four congressional districts. District 2 should give him 2 delegates, district 4 should give him 1. Then a couple of at-large. It's really not much from a pool of 36 delegates.

Considering the polls, I think of Buttigieg's result in Iowa as an outlier. At most, a warning about midwestern rural states still to come. He notably failed to carry through in New Hampshire and now he's done badly in Nevada. Not saying he's finished, but that Sanders shouldn't see him as a threat.

It's basically Sanders versus Biden.

I didn't say that. It's Sanders vs. Everyone. This is NOT a first past the post race, however much Sanders wishes it was.

[Imperial Joseon]

I didn't say that. It's Sanders vs. Everyone. This is NOT a first past the post race, however much Sanders wishes it was.

You didn't say that; I said that.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

I didn't say that. It's Sanders vs. Everyone. This is NOT a first past the post race, however much Sanders wishes it was.

You didn't say that; I said that.

Ah. Well I agree that despite a terrible start, Biden is the most likely to arrive at the Convention in second place.

[Sougra]

Yep. As for Buttigieg, if you're supporting Sanders, you want him to end up below 15% so he doesn't get delegates (at least, that's how I understand the rules working out).

Buttigieg will get delegates. Because he will get 15+ in at least one of the four congressional districts. District 2 should give him 2 delegates, district 4 should give him 1. Then a couple of at-large. It's really not much from a pool of 36 delegates.

Considering the polls, I think of Buttigieg's result in Iowa as an outlier. At most, a warning about midwestern rural states still to come. He notably failed to carry through in New Hampshire and now he's done badly in Nevada. Not saying he's finished, but that Sanders shouldn't see him as a threat.

I don't think it was an outlier. I think that him spending a lot of time, money, and resources in there, (as well as, to my knowledge, being one of the few, if not the only one with TV ads near the end of the day of the caucus in a state that has a lot of old people) made it so that he cemented himself as enough people's first or second option to end up in essentially a tie with Bernie. That momentum carried over to New Hampshire, as well as both being very white states which he does well in.

Sanders probably shouldn't see him as a threat. I think his biggest threats right now are Biden (in some Super Tuesday states), but especially Bloomberg. However, he needs to make sure that he gets a majority of delegates and not just a plurality, so that nothing happens at the convention as well as inspiring confidence in the voters that he can win big.

[Imperial Joseon]

You didn't say that; I said that.

Ah. Well I agree that despite a terrible start, Biden is the most likely to arrive at the Convention in second place.

Honestly, I've admired Biden, ever since he was the VP for the Obama administration, although that doesn't mean I support Biden all the way. Sanders is the guy for me.

[Shofercia]

Is Iowa still counting?

Well done Nevada, way to show America how to do a Caucus!

[Sougra]

Is Iowa still counting?

Well done Nevada, way to show America how to do a Caucus!

Iowa may as well have been the same day as South Carolina, Super Tuesday, or even further considering how long it'll take them to count everything.

Nevada could've done better, but they at least saved themselves from being an utter embarrassment.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Is Iowa still counting?

Re-counting, yes.

Well done Nevada, way to show America how to do a Caucus!

It's not Election Night standard tho. Stopped at 50% counted and I think they've gone home for the night.

[Page]

It's basically Sanders versus Biden.

I didn't say that. It's Sanders vs. Everyone. This is NOT a first past the post race, however much Sanders wishes it was.

No, but if Sanders has a strong plurality when the Democratic Convention starts, there will be a popular mandate for him to get the nomination.

[Duvniask]

Is Iowa still counting?

I swear, the election's going to be over when Iowa finishes their damn recount.

[Idzequitch]

Yep. As for Buttigieg, if you're supporting Sanders, you want him to end up below 15% so he doesn't get delegates (at least, that's how I understand the rules working out).

Buttigieg will get delegates. Because he will get 15+ in at least one of the four congressional districts. District 2 should give him 2 delegates, district 4 should give him 1. Then a couple of at-large. It's really not much from a pool of 36 delegates.

Considering the polls, I think of Buttigieg's result in Iowa as an outlier. At most, a warning about midwestern rural states still to come. He notably failed to carry through in New Hampshire and now he's done badly in Nevada. Not saying he's finished, but that Sanders shouldn't see him as a threat.

See, I think opposite here. Buttigieg did well in Iowa, and then he followed up with a surge in NH. He didn't win of course, but he was not polling second there before Iowa. Now he's pulling 15% from a state where he was supposed to struggle due to lack of appeal to minorities, and mostly polled in single digits, and he actually got a reasonable amount of Hispanic support. Among those in the moderate lane, I'd say Buttigieg is the only one who's trending in a positive direction. I don't think he'll have enough to stop Sanders. Frankly I don't think anyone will. But he may actually have the best shot of anyone at this point. The real test will be whether he can pull out anything resembling a decent showing in SC.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

I didn't say that. It's Sanders vs. Everyone. This is NOT a first past the post race, however much Sanders wishes it was.

No, but if Sanders has a strong plurality when the Democratic Convention starts, there will be a popular mandate for him to get the nomination.

I don't put a lot of stock in First Past The Post. The strength of the mandate, imo, depends on percentage for Sanders, percentage for the second runner, and the margin between those.

If Sanders is over 40% and no-one else over 25% then I think the popular mandate will prevail.

If it's like 35% and a contender at 30% I think there will be a quite different sentiment. One of "the base isn't behind either of these, we need to start over" which will be done with a series of votes at the convention. Of course Sanders will still be in it, and of course he might win that way.

It's important to remember that the votes the DNC can directly influence are only the automatic delegates. Most of the delegates (and certainly those necessary to get from 30% to 51%) are delegates chosen by the candidates.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Buttigieg will get delegates. Because he will get 15+ in at least one of the four congressional districts. District 2 should give him 2 delegates, district 4 should give him 1. Then a couple of at-large. It's really not much from a pool of 36 delegates.

Considering the polls, I think of Buttigieg's result in Iowa as an outlier. At most, a warning about midwestern rural states still to come. He notably failed to carry through in New Hampshire and now he's done badly in Nevada. Not saying he's finished, but that Sanders shouldn't see him as a threat.

See, I think opposite here. Buttigieg did well in Iowa, and then he followed up with a surge in NH. He didn't win of course, but he was not polling second there before Iowa. Now he's pulling 15% from a state where he was supposed to struggle due to lack of appeal to minorities, and mostly polled in single digits, and he actually got a reasonable amount of Hispanic support.

This is from exit polls? I haven't read that yet.

Among those in the moderate lane, I'd say Buttigieg is the only one who's trending in a positive direction. I don't think he'll have enough to stop Sanders. Frankly I don't think anyone will. But he may actually have the best shot of anyone at this point. The real test will be whether he can pull out anything resembling a decent showing in SC.

Well OK. You're not disagreeing with me much at all. Among "the field" behind Sanders someone necessarily must be leader, and it's Buttigieg, but despite his good showings in the first two contests he is not uniting the non-Sanders vote. If he was, he'd have at least come second tonight. And that's what I meant by "not a threat" to Sanders.

In another sense, of keeping Sanders from getting an outright majority of delegates ... everyone is a threat.

Could Buttigieg become the nominee? Primaries so far say Sure. Polling disagrees. Super Tuesday will tell!

[Juristonia]

Lmao Pete is using his whole speech to rail against Sanders. He keeps using the talking point can't nominate a factional candidate which is extremely funny given Sanders won almost every category of voters today.

It's kind of ironic how much time he keeps spending on calling Sanders toxic and divisive.

[Philjia]

The next rodeo is South Carolina, which will probably be a good state for Biden as SC has a large black population and he generally polls well in that demographic. Still, Sanders is closing the gap in polling there and his win in Nevada might help push him ahead.

[United States of Devonta]

Buttigieg will get delegates. Because he will get 15+ in at least one of the four congressional districts. District 2 should give him 2 delegates, district 4 should give him 1. Then a couple of at-large. It's really not much from a pool of 36 delegates.

Considering the polls, I think of Buttigieg's result in Iowa as an outlier. At most, a warning about midwestern rural states still to come. He notably failed to carry through in New Hampshire and now he's done badly in Nevada. Not saying he's finished, but that Sanders shouldn't see him as a threat.

See, I think opposite here. Buttigieg did well in Iowa, and then he followed up with a surge in NH. He didn't win of course, but he was not polling second there before Iowa. Now he's pulling 15% from a state where he was supposed to struggle due to lack of appeal to minorities, and mostly polled in single digits, and he actually got a reasonable amount of Hispanic support. Among those in the moderate lane, I'd say Buttigieg is the only one who's trending in a positive direction. I don't think he'll have enough to stop Sanders. Frankly I don't think anyone will. But he may actually have the best shot of anyone at this point. The real test will be whether he can pull out anything resembling a decent showing in SC.

Comoared to Sanders number with Latinos he did piss poor. And w/ blacks he got a total of 2% of the vote. That doesent sit well with SC.

[United States of Devonta]

Lmao Pete is using his whole speech to rail against Sanders. He keeps using the talking point can't nominate a factional candidate which is extremely funny given Sanders won almost every category of voters today.

It's kind of ironic how much time he keeps spending on calling Sanders toxic and divisive.

His concession speech was just toxic

[Pasong Tirad]

Lmao Pete is using his whole speech to rail against Sanders. He keeps using the talking point can't nominate a factional candidate which is extremely funny given Sanders won almost every category of voters today.

"We need someone who can unite the party, which is why we should choose someone other than the person who's gotten the most votes in every state so far."

[Unstoppable Empire of Doom]

See, I think opposite here. Buttigieg did well in Iowa, and then he followed up with a surge in NH. He didn't win of course, but he was not polling second there before Iowa. Now he's pulling 15% from a state where he was supposed to struggle due to lack of appeal to minorities, and mostly polled in single digits, and he actually got a reasonable amount of Hispanic support. Among those in the moderate lane, I'd say Buttigieg is the only one who's trending in a positive direction. I don't think he'll have enough to stop Sanders. Frankly I don't think anyone will. But he may actually have the best shot of anyone at this point. The real test will be whether he can pull out anything resembling a decent showing in SC.

Comoared to Sanders number with Latinos he did piss poor. And w/ blacks he got a total of 2% of the vote. That doesent sit well with SC.

Buttigieg has taken virtually no advertisements in sc. Sanders has.

Democrats are going to have a tough election after this primary as their platform has shifted so much from their traditional base. Going over the differences between them has left me massively disappointed as I dont see a single moderate candidate.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Comoared to Sanders number with Latinos he did piss poor. And w/ blacks he got a total of 2% of the vote. That doesent sit well with SC.

Buttigieg has taken virtually no advertisements in sc. Sanders has.

Democrats are going to have a tough election after this primary as their platform has shifted so much from their traditional base. Going over the differences between them has left me massively disappointed as I dont see a single moderate candidate.

Write in Clinton. The betting markets say she has a 6% chance of the nomination!!

[SD_Film Artists]

Going over the differences between them has left me massively disappointed as I dont see a single moderate candidate.

Exactly. The 'choosing which public toilet to use' is a political cliche but this time it really does look messy. How much do MAGA hats cost nowadays? Asking for a friend..

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Going over the differences between them has left me massively disappointed as I dont see a single moderate candidate.

Exactly. The 'choosing which public toilet to use' is a political cliche but this time it really does look messy. How much do MAGA hats cost nowadays? Asking for a friend..

Seriously now, would you vote Hillary Clinton ahead of the current field?