2020 US General Election Thread IV: The Battle Begins

[Myrensis]

I know it's early in the primaries, but I really do think NH is a moment of reckoning for the 2020 Democratic primaries.

If Bernie wins, he most likely wins the nomination.

If Pete wins, not as likely due to his lack of support in Nevada or SC, but he will be taken more seriously.

Meh, Nevada and SC will be more important, because A. They have more than 10 brown people living in them, and B. South Carolina in particular is a regular primary, so turnout isn't driven into the toilet and can't be skewed by small numbers of devoted supporters.

[San Lumen]

Why?

He's polling terribly with them. Like worse than Yang, Bloomberg, and Steyer, despite him actually being a viable option. Plus the whole mayor thing. That points to black turnout for him as the nominee being lower than average.

How do you reach that conclusion?

[Cannot think of a name]

Buttigieg being the nominee.

Your 2018 examples show how important high black turnout is for Dems. Buttigieg being the nominee puts that at risk.

Why?

Because General Election polls done in early February are always completely infallible and inflexible.

[United States of Devonta]

Oh shit, this was 2 minutes ago. Bernie's swinging.

No prisoners.

This debate might be good.

[Nakena]

Why?

He's polling terribly with them. Like worse than Yang, Bloomberg, and Steyer, despite him actually being a viable option. Plus the whole mayor thing. That points to black turnout for him as the nominee being lower than average.

Theres also quite some black republicans too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWam9FSRvGI

[San Lumen]

I know it's early in the primaries, but I really do think NH is a moment of reckoning for the 2020 Democratic primaries.

If Bernie wins, he most likely wins the nomination.

If Pete wins, not as likely due to his lack of support in Nevada or SC, but he will be taken more seriously.

Meh, Nevada and SC will be more important, because A. They have more than 10 brown people living in them, and B. South Carolina in particular is a regular primary, so turnout isn't driven into the toilet and can't be skewed by small numbers of devoted supporters.

There is a danger that Republicans mess with it though as its an open primary which is beyond stupid. If your not a member of the party you should get no say in the nomination process.

[Cisairse]

The fact that literally all scientific studies say so.

Numbers from 538:

Florida (B+)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +7
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +6

North Carolina (A-)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +4
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +1

Ohio (B)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +4
Sanders v Trump: Tie

Wisconsin (A/B)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +2
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +1



A vote for Pete is a vote for Donald.

To be fair that isn't a landslide victory.

I think that depends on your definition of landslide. Many people said that 2016 was a landslide victory for Trump in the EC.
I would definitely have called Clinton's 1992 victory a landslide.

Meanwhile Biden is campaigning like he wants to be ten points down.

I won't complain about that, unless he gets the nomination.

Let's not talk about that.

[Cisairse]

Oh shit, this was 2 minutes ago. Bernie's swinging.

No prisoners.

This debate might be good.

Ayy that's a nice throwback to the 5th Debate.

Meh, Nevada and SC will be more important, because A. They have more than 10 brown people living in them, and B. South Carolina in particular is a regular primary, so turnout isn't driven into the toilet and can't be skewed by small numbers of devoted supporters.

There is a danger that Republicans mess with it though as its an open primary which is beyond stupid. If your not a member of the party you should get no say in the nomination process.

On the flipside, registered Democrats can vote in both parties' primaries in New Jersey, but registered Republicans can only vote in their own.

Honestly I can't imagine Republicans meddling too much. I imagine the number of Republicans who would maliciously vote for the worse candidate is low - and it's not even clear right now who among them would be the 'worst' candidate - and the potential for candidates with crossover appeal doing better is imo a nicety.

[Arlenton]

He's polling terribly with them. Like worse than Yang, Bloomberg, and Steyer, despite him actually being a viable option. Plus the whole mayor thing. That points to black turnout for him as the nominee being lower than average.

How do you reach that conclusion?

Like 70 articles talking about Buttigieg's black voter problem.

How are you reaching the conclusion that a candidate doing worse with black voters than any other viable Democratic candidate won't have trouble turning out black voters in numbers needed to win?

[Cisairse]

How do you reach that conclusion?

Like 70 articles talking about Buttigieg's black voter problem.

How are you reaching the conclusion that a candidate doing worse with black voters than any other viable Democratic candidate won't have trouble turning out black voters in numbers needed to win?

*waves hands*

Why can't you see what I see?

[Arlenton]

He's polling terribly with them. Like worse than Yang, Bloomberg, and Steyer, despite him actually being a viable option. Plus the whole mayor thing. That points to black turnout for him as the nominee being lower than average.

Theres also quite some black republicans too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWam9FSRvGI

Black support for Trump is negligible. IDK why there's this big focus on blacks voting Republican. How come there's no focus on non-whites who actually have a history of voting GOP or are proven to be competitive, like some Asian ethnicities or Hispanics in Texas and Florida?

[United States of Devonta]

Like 70 articles talking about Buttigieg's black voter problem.

How are you reaching the conclusion that a candidate doing worse with black voters than any other viable Democratic candidate won't have trouble turning out black voters in numbers needed to win?

*waves hands*

Why can't you see what I see?

In San Lumen's case, an intense Anti everything Bernie Sanders bias

[Arlenton]

*waves hands*

Why can't you see what I see?

In San Lumen's case, an intense Anti everything Bernie Sanders bias

I honestly think Sanders has a better chance than Buttigieg.

[Cisairse]

Theres also quite some black republicans too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWam9FSRvGI

Black support for Trump is negligible. IDK why there's this big focus on blacks voting Republican. How come there's no focus on non-whites who actually have a history of voting GOP or are proven to be competitive, like some Asian ethnicities or Hispanics in Texas and Florida?

You know, for some reason I doubt that Hispanics in Texas and Florida are crazy about Donald Trump.

Can't quite put my finger on why.

In San Lumen's case, an intense Anti everything Bernie Sanders bias

I honestly think Sanders has a better chance than Buttigieg.

You and basically everyone else except San Lumen.

[Myrensis]

This conspiracy nonsense is beyond tiresome. Why is it whenever he loses or thee is an issue it’s a conspiracy against him? Show the receipts instead of making grandiose claims with no basis in reality

Probably because there is mountains filled with cruise ships filled with evidence that the DNC rigged the primary against Sanders in 2016. Were you not watching the news in the run-up to the election? This was probably the biggest Clinton scandal in terms of overall effect on the election.

So many mountains of cruise ships of evidence that...no Bernie supporter can ever actually articulate what it is the DNC did that caused more than 3 million Democratic primary voters to vote for Clinton over him. Just a lot of "They said mean things about him in emails!" and "The superdelegates did...something badwrong, probably!".

[Gormwood]

Probably because there is mountains filled with cruise ships filled with evidence that the DNC rigged the primary against Sanders in 2016. Were you not watching the news in the run-up to the election? This was probably the biggest Clinton scandal in terms of overall effect on the election.

So many mountains of cruise ships of evidence that...no Bernie supporter can ever actually articulate what it is the DNC did that caused more than 3 million Democratic primary voters to vote for Clinton over him. Just a lot of "They said mean things about him in emails!" and "The superdelegates did...something badwrong, probably!".

Frankly I wouldn't mind Sanders getting the nomination because it's a win-win. If he gets Trump out of the White House and into a courtroom, great. If he somehow loses in the general, then I can amuse myself with the Bernies doing exactly what they bitched about Hillary Clinton doing and blame everyone but Sanders for the loss.

[Cisairse]

Probably because there is mountains filled with cruise ships filled with evidence that the DNC rigged the primary against Sanders in 2016. Were you not watching the news in the run-up to the election? This was probably the biggest Clinton scandal in terms of overall effect on the election.

So many mountains of cruise ships of evidence that...no Bernie supporter can ever actually articulate what it is the DNC did that caused more than 3 million Democratic primary voters to vote for Clinton over him. Just a lot of "They said mean things about him in emails!" and "The superdelegates did...something badwrong, probably!".

The emails in question show widespread collusion between the DNC and the Clinton campaign with regards to campaign strategy, advertisement strategy, and electioneering strategy. Those are how elections are run. It is impossible to say how much of an effect this had on the campaign, or if Sanders would have won had this collusion not occurred.

[Arlenton]

Black support for Trump is negligible. IDK why there's this big focus on blacks voting Republican. How come there's no focus on non-whites who actually have a history of voting GOP or are proven to be competitive, like some Asian ethnicities or Hispanics in Texas and Florida?

You know, for some reason I doubt that Hispanics in Texas and Florida are crazy about Donald Trump.

Can't quite put my finger on why.

I honestly think Sanders has a better chance than Buttigieg.

You and basically everyone else except San Lumen.

Hispanics in Texas have shifted Republican since Trump. Definitely not because of Trump, and they'd of probably shifted more if it weren't for him. It seems to be the same shift ethnic Catholics took 50-30 years ago. Since Hispanics are pretty much just ethnic Catholics. Further and further integrating into and identifying with the "normal".

[Bear Stearns]

In San Lumen's case, an intense Anti everything Bernie Sanders bias

I honestly think Sanders has a better chance than Buttigieg.

Bernie has the potential to make it really close with Trump.

Buttigieg would lose in a McGovern-tier landslide.

[Cisairse]

I honestly think Sanders has a better chance than Buttigieg.

Bernie has the potential to make it really close with Trump.

Buttigieg would lose in a McGovern-tier landslide.

Definitely not McGovern-tier - I really can't imagine any state which Trump lost in 2016 flipping to Trump in 2020, except maybe Minnesota and New Hampshire.

[Bear Stearns]

Bernie has the potential to make it really close with Trump.

Buttigieg would lose in a McGovern-tier landslide.

Definitely not McGovern-tier - I really can't imagine any state which Trump lost in 2016 flipping to Trump in 2020, except maybe Minnesota and New Hampshire.

And Maine.

[Penguin Union Nation]

Oh shit, this was 2 minutes ago. Bernie's swinging.

No prisoners.

Good. It was about time he took the gloves off.

[San Lumen]

I seriously doubt the DNC would try to hobble Sanders after 2016. IDP probably.

They are actively trying.

Wait, the Buttigieg fellah is gay?

Huh, I didn't know that. I wonder if that would hurt or help him politically, what with the political climate as it is.

Considering he "won" Iowa and pretty much everybody knows he's gay, I'd say it isn't hurting him.

This conspiracy nonsense is beyond tiresome. Why is it whenever he loses or thee is an issue it’s a conspiracy against him? Show the receipts instead of making grandiose claims with no basis in reality

Probably because there is mountains filled with cruise ships filled with evidence that the DNC rigged the primary against Sanders in 2016. Were you not watching the news in the run-up to the election? This was probably the biggest Clinton scandal in terms of overall effect on the election.

I know it's early in the primaries, but I really do think NH is a moment of reckoning for the 2020 Democratic primaries.

If Bernie wins, he most likely wins the nomination.

If Pete wins, not as likely due to his lack of support in Nevada or SC, but he will be taken more seriously.

If Pete wins, we likely get a brokered convention.

Not really. New Hampshire is his backyard.

I really hope Pete wins. He's far more electable than Bernie

You are verifiably wrong about Pete being more electable than Bernie.
Also, NH is also Liz's backyard.

Show the receipts about their being a conspiracy in 2016. No one has yet provided this nor can they prove it for this cycle

[Alien Space Bats]

I don't know if this has been posted yet, but do to a faulty new app causing mass confusion and inconsistencies, who won the Iowa Caucus is as of now undetermined.

The Russians are starting early.

Turns out that you might well be right...

[Alien Space Bats]

To be fair, primaries and caucuses are overrated: maybe they should do what civilized countries do and have leadership elections within their party membership all at once as opposed to doing this weird and archaic system that seems to only exist to inflate the costs of elections.

Isn't that how Britain ended up having to choose between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn?

No thanks. No, Really, no thanks...