2020 US General Election Thread IV: The Battle Begins

[United States of Devonta]

Well, to be fair, Iowa is not a State with large minority populations; I think 4% of the population there is black. But the real test will be Nevada and South Carolina, which I suspect he won't fair too well there.

Oh yeah I looked up the demographics and it's a very white state, but it is telling he lost almost all of the counties with larger minority populations. I think Pete is going to get absolutely destroyed in the south and west.

Fun fact: Trump currently has more African-American support then Mayor Pete

[Cisairse]

The fact that literally all scientific studies say so.

Numbers from 538:

Florida (B+)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +7
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +6

North Carolina (A-)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +4
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +1

Ohio (B)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +4
Sanders v Trump: Tie

Wisconsin (A/B)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +2
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +1



A vote for Pete is a vote for Donald.

and you think those numbers wouldn't change if they are nominated? if we went by polling Andrew Gillum should be Governor of Florida. How did that work out?

If you want to play the "attitudes don't matter" card, play it. Don't just half-assedly say that one candidate has a better shot than another with no evidence. All the evidence points towards Pete doing materially worse than Bernie. You can say the polls were wrong before - that is true. You cannot then say that you have heard whispers from the gods telling you that the polls are more wrong about one person than another. Trump's upset victory came almost entirely from unexpectedly high white turnout and unexpectedly low minority turnout - go read any post-mortem empirical report on 2016 and they will tell you that. If you recanvassed the pre-2016 polls to more heavily weight the demographs that ended up having a higher 2016 turnout, they show Trump winning more or less exactly how he did with the only real "upset" being Wisconsin. We have every reason to believe that Pete will not inspire nonwhite turnout for the simple reason that polls show him with 0% support among blacks and similarly abysmal support among other nonwhite groups. Thus, even if the polls didn't already agree with this conclusion, it's plainly obvious that intuitively Pete has no chance.

The data says Pete loses. Logic says Pete loses. If you're going to try to draw a line in the sand and say Pete absolutely will do better than Bernie, please use one of those two, because so far you haven't.

[San Lumen]

and you think those numbers wouldn't change if they are nominated? if we went by polling Andrew Gillum should be Governor of Florida. How did that work out?

If you want to play the "attitudes don't matter" card, play it. Don't just half-assedly say that one candidate has a better shot than another with no evidence. All the evidence points towards Pete doing materially worse than Bernie. You can say the polls were wrong before - that is true. You cannot then say that you have heard whispers from the gods telling you that the polls are more wrong about one person than another. Trump's upset victory came almost entirely from unexpectedly high white turnout and unexpectedly low minority turnout - go read any post-mortem empirical report on 2016 and they will tell you that. If you recanvassed the pre-2016 polls to more heavily weight the demographs that ended up having a higher 2016 turnout, they show Trump winning more or less exactly how he did with the only real "upset" being Wisconsin. We have every reason to believe that Pete will not inspire nonwhite turnout for the simple reason that polls show him with 0% support among blacks and similarly abysmal support among other nonwhite groups. Thus, even if the polls didn't already agree with this conclusion, it's plainly obvious that intuitively Pete has no chance.

The data says Pete loses. Logic says Pete loses. If you're going to try to draw a line in the sand and say Pete absolutely will do better than Bernie, please use one of those two, because so far you haven't.

and if by some miracle he got the nod you dont think they wouldnt come of him in November? The black vote came out in the big three in 2018 in large numbers.

[Cisairse]

If you want to play the "attitudes don't matter" card, play it. Don't just half-assedly say that one candidate has a better shot than another with no evidence. All the evidence points towards Pete doing materially worse than Bernie. You can say the polls were wrong before - that is true. You cannot then say that you have heard whispers from the gods telling you that the polls are more wrong about one person than another. Trump's upset victory came almost entirely from unexpectedly high white turnout and unexpectedly low minority turnout - go read any post-mortem empirical report on 2016 and they will tell you that. If you recanvassed the pre-2016 polls to more heavily weight the demographs that ended up having a higher 2016 turnout, they show Trump winning more or less exactly how he did with the only real "upset" being Wisconsin. We have every reason to believe that Pete will not inspire nonwhite turnout for the simple reason that polls show him with 0% support among blacks and similarly abysmal support among other nonwhite groups. Thus, even if the polls didn't already agree with this conclusion, it's plainly obvious that intuitively Pete has no chance.

The data says Pete loses. Logic says Pete loses. If you're going to try to draw a line in the sand and say Pete absolutely will do better than Bernie, please use one of those two, because so far you haven't.

and if by some miracle he got the nod you dont think they wouldnt come of him in November? The black vote came out in the big three in 2018 in large numbers.

I strongly believe that, considering it's exactly what happened in 2016.

[Arlenton]

I would love for Buttigieg to be the nominee just to see how red the South gets after black turnout tanks.

[Necroghastia]

I would love for Buttigieg to be the nominee just to see how red the South gets after black turnout tanks.

Why do you want me to lose even more faith in my state?

[Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana]

I would love for Buttigieg to be the nominee just to see how red the South gets after black turnout tanks.

That combined with the whole Blexit thing that happened a year ago and Trump trying to win over the black vote

The fact that literally all scientific studies say so.

Numbers from 538:

Florida (B+)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +7
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +6

North Carolina (A-)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +4
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +1

Ohio (B)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +4
Sanders v Trump: Tie

Wisconsin (A/B)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +2
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +1



A vote for Pete is a vote for Donald.

and you think those numbers wouldn't change if they are nominated? if we went by polling Andrew Gillum should be Governor of Florida. How did that work out?

He was your typical liberal democrat, he would’ve won had his opponent been a typical Republican. Instead, he went against Ron DeSantis, a guy who posed himself as a Trumper, which won him the Trump supporter’s vote.

The minute he took office though, he showed his true colors, he increased welfare, passed additional environmental regulations, while still maintaining the crackdown on illegal immigration and upholding 2A. He’s the only Republican in America right now to have majority Democrat approval from his state, he’s also the closest thing we have to a third positionist.

Reportedly, Trump supported him in the primaries because he was "a nice guy," but Trump doesn’t realize he’s accidentally sparked a statewide (and hopefully soon, nationwide) movement of third positionist Americans who are disgruntled with both parties and the entire current system of politics

[Gormwood]

I would love for Buttigieg to be the nominee just to see how red the South gets after black turnout tanks.

And I would love for Bolton to be subpoenaed and testify before the House committee to hear what the Senate GOPs wanted hushed up just to see how deep they sank themselves covering for Trump.

[San Lumen]

I would love for Buttigieg to be the nominee just to see how red the South gets after black turnout tanks.

Black turnout is why you have Governor Evers in Wisconsin and Governor Whitmer in Michigan so spare me this talk.

I would love for Buttigieg to be the nominee just to see how red the South gets after black turnout tanks.

That combined with the whole Blexit thing that happened a year ago and Trump trying to win over the black vote

and you think those numbers wouldn't change if they are nominated? if we went by polling Andrew Gillum should be Governor of Florida. How did that work out?

He was your typical liberal democrat, he would’ve won had his opponent been a typical Republican. Instead, he went against Ron DeSantis, a guy who posed himself as a Trumper, which won him the Trump supporter’s vote.

The minute he took office though, he showed his true colors, he increased welfare, passed additional environmental regulations, while still maintaining the crackdown on illegal immigration and upholding 2A. He’s the only Republican in America right now to have majority Democrat approval from his state, he’s also the closest thing we have to a third positionist.

Reportedly, Trump supported him in the primaries because he was "a nice guy," but Trump doesn’t realize he’s accidentally sparked a statewide (and hopefully soon, nationwide) movement of third positionist Americans who are disgruntled with both parties and the entire current system of politics

The fact that De Santis has done good for the environment make me have a lot of respect for him. He turned out to not be so bad.

[San Lumen]

I would love for Buttigieg to be the nominee just to see how red the South gets after black turnout tanks.

And I would love for Bolton to be subpoenaed and testify before the House committee to hear what the Senate GOPs wanted hushed up just to see how deep they sank themselves covering for Trump.

That's if his testimony isnt blocked by Trump as it certainly would be.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

nice

[Arlenton]

I would love for Buttigieg to be the nominee just to see how red the South gets after black turnout tanks.

That combined with the whole Blexit thing that happened a year ago and Trump trying to win over the black vote

and you think those numbers wouldn't change if they are nominated? if we went by polling Andrew Gillum should be Governor of Florida. How did that work out?

He was your typical liberal democrat, he would’ve won had his opponent been a typical Republican. Instead, he went against Ron DeSantis, a guy who posed himself as a Trumper, which won him the Trump supporter’s vote.

The minute he took office though, he showed his true colors, he increased welfare, passed additional environmental regulations, while still maintaining the crackdown on illegal immigration and upholding 2A. He’s the only Republican in America right now to have majority Democrat approval from his state, he’s also the closest thing we have to a third positionist.

Reportedly, Trump supported him in the primaries because he was "a nice guy," but Trump doesn’t realize he’s accidentally sparked a statewide (and hopefully soon, nationwide) movement of third positionist Americans who are disgruntled with both parties and the entire current system of politics

Buttigieg will do terribly with blacks, but Trump won't do much better than he did before. Blacks will still vote Democrat in the by the upper 80s percentage wise. Turnout will likely just be lower.

[Arlenton]

I would love for Buttigieg to be the nominee just to see how red the South gets after black turnout tanks.

Black turnout is why you have Governor Evers in Wisconsin and Governor Whitmer in Michigan so spare me this talk.

That combined with the whole Blexit thing that happened a year ago and Trump trying to win over the black vote


He was your typical liberal democrat, he would’ve won had his opponent been a typical Republican. Instead, he went against Ron DeSantis, a guy who posed himself as a Trumper, which won him the Trump supporter’s vote.

The minute he took office though, he showed his true colors, he increased welfare, passed additional environmental regulations, while still maintaining the crackdown on illegal immigration and upholding 2A. He’s the only Republican in America right now to have majority Democrat approval from his state, he’s also the closest thing we have to a third positionist.

Reportedly, Trump supported him in the primaries because he was "a nice guy," but Trump doesn’t realize he’s accidentally sparked a statewide (and hopefully soon, nationwide) movement of third positionist Americans who are disgruntled with both parties and the entire current system of politics

The fact that De Santis has done good for the environment make me have a lot of respect for him. He turned out to not be so bad.

I have no idea what that has to do with Buttigieg being the nominee.

[Cisairse]

nice

That's hilarious.

That combined with the whole Blexit thing that happened a year ago and Trump trying to win over the black vote


He was your typical liberal democrat, he would’ve won had his opponent been a typical Republican. Instead, he went against Ron DeSantis, a guy who posed himself as a Trumper, which won him the Trump supporter’s vote.

The minute he took office though, he showed his true colors, he increased welfare, passed additional environmental regulations, while still maintaining the crackdown on illegal immigration and upholding 2A. He’s the only Republican in America right now to have majority Democrat approval from his state, he’s also the closest thing we have to a third positionist.

Reportedly, Trump supported him in the primaries because he was "a nice guy," but Trump doesn’t realize he’s accidentally sparked a statewide (and hopefully soon, nationwide) movement of third positionist Americans who are disgruntled with both parties and the entire current system of politics

Buttigieg will do terribly with blacks, but Trump won't do much better than he did before. Blacks will still vote Democrat in the by the upper 80s percentage wise. Turnout will likely just be lower.

Turnout will decide November.

[United States of Devonta]

nice

Bernie's ground game and grassroots movement was a forced to be reckon with in 2016 and in 2020 it's just gotten better. That being said, don't get complacent and always campaign like your're 10 points down.

[San Lumen]

That combined with the whole Blexit thing that happened a year ago and Trump trying to win over the black vote


He was your typical liberal democrat, he would’ve won had his opponent been a typical Republican. Instead, he went against Ron DeSantis, a guy who posed himself as a Trumper, which won him the Trump supporter’s vote.

The minute he took office though, he showed his true colors, he increased welfare, passed additional environmental regulations, while still maintaining the crackdown on illegal immigration and upholding 2A. He’s the only Republican in America right now to have majority Democrat approval from his state, he’s also the closest thing we have to a third positionist.

Reportedly, Trump supported him in the primaries because he was "a nice guy," but Trump doesn’t realize he’s accidentally sparked a statewide (and hopefully soon, nationwide) movement of third positionist Americans who are disgruntled with both parties and the entire current system of politics

Buttigieg will do terribly with blacks, but Trump won't do much better than he did before. Blacks will still vote Democrat in the by the upper 80s percentage wise. Turnout will likely just be lower.

Turnout among blacks was very high in Milwaukee and Detroit in 2018 hence why Democrats won every statewide office

[Cisairse]

nice

Bernie's ground game and grassroots movement was a forced to be reckon with in 2016 and in 2020 it's just gotten better. That being said, don't get complacent and always campaign like your're 10 points down.

Meanwhile Biden is campaigning like he wants to be ten points down.

[Arlenton]

Buttigieg will do terribly with blacks, but Trump won't do much better than he did before. Blacks will still vote Democrat in the by the upper 80s percentage wise. Turnout will likely just be lower.

Turnout among blacks was very high in Milwaukee and Detroit in 2018 hence why Democrats won every statewide office

And that has what to do with Buttigieg vs Trump 2020?

[United States of Devonta]

Bernie's ground game and grassroots movement was a forced to be reckon with in 2016 and in 2020 it's just gotten better. That being said, don't get complacent and always campaign like your're 10 points down.

Meanwhile Biden is campaigning like he wants to be ten points down.

I won't complain about that, unless he gets the nomination.

[San Lumen]

Turnout among blacks was very high in Milwaukee and Detroit in 2018 hence why Democrats won every statewide office

And that has what to do with Buttigieg vs Trump 2020?

what's to say black turnout wouldnt be high in 2020

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

What makes you think he would lose in landslide and Bernie wouldn't?

The fact that literally all scientific studies say so.

Numbers from 538:

Florida (B+)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +7
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +6

North Carolina (A-)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +4
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +1

Ohio (B)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +4
Sanders v Trump: Tie

Wisconsin (A/B)
Buttigieg v Trump: Trump +2
Sanders v Trump: Sanders +1



A vote for Pete is a vote for Donald.

To be fair that isn't a landslide victory.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

Bernie's ground game and grassroots movement was a forced to be reckon with in 2016 and in 2020 it's just gotten better. That being said, don't get complacent and always campaign like your're 10 points down.

Meanwhile Biden is campaigning like he wants to be ten points down.

Oof

[Arlenton]

And that has what to do with Buttigieg vs Trump 2020?

what's to say black turnout wouldnt be high in 2020

Buttigieg being the nominee.

Your 2018 examples show how important high black turnout is for Dems. Buttigieg being the nominee puts that at risk.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

what's to say black turnout wouldnt be high in 2020

Buttigieg being the nominee.

Your 2018 examples show how important high black turnout is for Dems. Buttigieg being the nominee puts that at risk.

Why?

[Arlenton]

Buttigieg being the nominee.

Your 2018 examples show how important high black turnout is for Dems. Buttigieg being the nominee puts that at risk.

Why?

He's polling terribly with them. Like worse than Yang, Bloomberg, and Steyer, despite him actually being a viable option. Plus the whole mayor thing. That points to black turnout for him as the nominee being lower than average.