2020 US General Election Thread IV: The Battle Begins

[Gormwood]

Fivethirtyeight's primary forecast shows the main effect of Iowa were:

Sanders went WAY up
Biden went WAY down
No-Result went up
Buttigieg did nothing

If it's a plot to get rid of Sanders, it's incredibly ineffective. The demise of Biden matters much more than a one-off Buttigieg surge.

Looks like their attempts to screw over Sanders backfired miserably.

The way everyone describes the DNC as cartoonishly incompetent they'd do more damage to Sanders if they supported him 100%.

[Vassenor]

Looks like their attempts to screw over Sanders backfired miserably.

The way everyone describes the DNC as cartoonishly incompetent they'd do more damage to Sanders if they supported him 100%.

Schrodinger's DNC.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Fivethirtyeight's primary forecast shows the main effect of Iowa were:

Sanders went WAY up
Biden went WAY down
No-Result went up
Buttigieg did nothing

If it's a plot to get rid of Sanders, it's incredibly ineffective. The demise of Biden matters much more than a one-off Buttigieg surge.

Looks like their attempts to screw over Sanders backfired miserably.

It looks to me like the "DNC tried to screw over Sanders" conspiracy theory … backfired miserably.

My alternative theory of why Buttigieg did so well, is that a lot of rural and semi-rural precincts (where the threshold is 16.7%, 25% or even 50%) went slightly more for Buttigieg than for Biden, the voters there went to Buttigieg instead of either of the progressives. Then in the urban precincts Buttigieg did as well as polls said he would do statewide (pollsters didn't cover rural areas, surprise) and there you have it. Buttigieg got what we knew he would get anyway, plus the Biden and Klobuchar votes in rural areas.

Don't like it? Tough. Come up with something better or stop talking this conspiracy nonsense which WILL hurt the Democrat whoever it is.

[Blargoblarg]

And Sanders has declared victory in Iowa based on the fact that he won more of the popular vote, which makes sense to me. Seems pretty ridiculous to me that a candidate can win more of the votes and a different candidate can be the official "winner".

[Blargoblarg]

Looks like their attempts to screw over Sanders backfired miserably.

It looks to me like the "DNC tried to screw over Sanders" conspiracy theory … backfired miserably.

My alternative theory of why Buttigieg did so well, is that a lot of rural and semi-rural precincts (where the threshold is 16.7%, 25% or even 50%) went slightly more for Buttigieg than for Biden, the voters there went to Buttigieg instead of either of the progressives. Then in the urban precincts Buttigieg did as well as polls said he would do statewide (pollsters didn't cover rural areas, surprise) and there you have it. Buttigieg got what we knew he would get anyway, plus the Biden and Klobuchar votes in rural areas.

Don't like it? Tough. Come up with something better or stop talking this conspiracy nonsense which WILL hurt the Democrat whoever it is.

There were a lot of precincts where they did the math wrong and Buttigieg and others got state delegates they shouldn't have gotten while Sanders got less than he should have though.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Looks like their attempts to screw over Sanders backfired miserably.

The way everyone describes the DNC as cartoonishly incompetent they'd do more damage to Sanders if they supported him 100%.

I haven't ruled out crooked dealings, though if so, I think the Iowa Democratic Party is a more likely culprit than the DNC. They're the ones who organized this election, counted it and now have to make sense of their own mess.

Is it Incompetence?
Or Malice WITH Incompetence?

[Nobel Hobos 2]

It looks to me like the "DNC tried to screw over Sanders" conspiracy theory … backfired miserably.

My alternative theory of why Buttigieg did so well, is that a lot of rural and semi-rural precincts (where the threshold is 16.7%, 25% or even 50%) went slightly more for Buttigieg than for Biden, the voters there went to Buttigieg instead of either of the progressives. Then in the urban precincts Buttigieg did as well as polls said he would do statewide (pollsters didn't cover rural areas, surprise) and there you have it. Buttigieg got what we knew he would get anyway, plus the Biden and Klobuchar votes in rural areas.

Don't like it? Tough. Come up with something better or stop talking this conspiracy nonsense which WILL hurt the Democrat whoever it is.

There were a lot of precincts where they did the math wrong and Buttigieg and others got state delegates they shouldn't have gotten while Sanders got less than he should have though.

"They" being poll workers and volunteers. Employed or organized by the Iowa Democratic Party.

Now I'm thinking fuck the state parties. If the DNC is going to take the blame every time a state party goes crooked or fucks up, the DNC might as well step in with boots on and run all the state primaries.

[Gormwood]

The way everyone describes the DNC as cartoonishly incompetent they'd do more damage to Sanders if they supported him 100%.

I haven't ruled out crooked dealings, though if so, I think the Iowa Democratic Party is a more likely culprit than the DNC. They're the ones who organized this election, counted it and now have to make sense of their own mess.

Is it Incompetence?
Or Malice WITH Incompetence?

I seriously doubt the DNC would try to hobble Sanders after 2016. IDP probably.

[Blargoblarg]

There were a lot of precincts where they did the math wrong and Buttigieg and others got state delegates they shouldn't have gotten while Sanders got less than he should have though.

"They" being poll workers and volunteers. Employed or organized by the Iowa Democratic Party.

Now I'm thinking fuck the state parties. If the DNC is going to take the blame every time a state party goes crooked or fucks up, the DNC might as well step in with boots on and run all the state primaries.

I think both the Iowa Democratic Party and the DNC are against Sanders winning. But I doubt they can successfully stop him this time.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

"They" being poll workers and volunteers. Employed or organized by the Iowa Democratic Party.

Now I'm thinking fuck the state parties. If the DNC is going to take the blame every time a state party goes crooked or fucks up, the DNC might as well step in with boots on and run all the state primaries.

I think both the Iowa Democratic Party and the DNC are against Sanders winning. But I doubt they can successfully stop him this time.

Well I hope they don't try.

Like a lot of voters in New Hampshire I'm taking a fresh look at Pete Buttigieg and thinking, "hmm, why not? He's inexperienced and he's gay, but he's young and smart and doesn't have too much baggage. Maybe this is our guy?"

Of course my opinion doesn't matter, I can't vote and I won't have to live under whoever gets elected. But I was for Clinton in 2016 and I'm still sure I made the right call. Go with your head not your heart, pick the more electable Democrat even if that isn't the one you'd prefer to be President.

[Albrenia]

Wait, the Buttigieg fellah is gay?

Huh, I didn't know that. I wonder if that would hurt or help him politically, what with the political climate as it is.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

I haven't ruled out crooked dealings, though if so, I think the Iowa Democratic Party is a more likely culprit than the DNC. They're the ones who organized this election, counted it and now have to make sense of their own mess.

Is it Incompetence?
Or Malice WITH Incompetence?

I seriously doubt the DNC would try to hobble Sanders after 2016. IDP probably.

IDP is "instant dance party"?

I would think, after the damage party shenanigans did to Clinton (who won easily without), they would avoid doing it again.

Also, a good proportion of the DNC are Sanders people! One of the functions of the National Convention is to elect members of the DNC in following years.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Wait, the Buttigieg fellah is gay?

Huh, I didn't know that. I wonder if that would hurt or help him politically, what with the political climate as it is.

It's good in the primary, probably not good in the general election.

Yeah, kissed his male partner after the last debate. Defs gay.

[Gormwood]

I seriously doubt the DNC would try to hobble Sanders after 2016. IDP probably.

IDP is "instant dance party"?

I would think, after the damage party shenanigans did to Clinton (who won easily without), they would avoid doing it again.

Also, a good proportion of the DNC are Sanders people! One of the functions of the National Convention is to elect members of the DNC in following years.

Iowa Democratic Party.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

IDP is "instant dance party"?

I would think, after the damage party shenanigans did to Clinton (who won easily without), they would avoid doing it again.

Also, a good proportion of the DNC are Sanders people! One of the functions of the National Convention is to elect members of the DNC in following years.

Iowa Democratic Party.

Beg pardon, brain fail there. I doubt there's much dancing going on in the IDP just now ...

[Zurkerx]

And Sanders has declared victory in Iowa based on the fact that he won more of the popular vote, which makes sense to me. Seems pretty ridiculous to me that a candidate can win more of the votes and a different candidate can be the official "winner".

It looks like they did the SDEs as a sign for the victor though I would agree Sanders won due to the fact he got more of the popular vote but the same delegates like Buttigieg. I personally view it as a tie which can be taken either way.

[Zurkerx]

In other news, Sanders maintains a strong lead but Buttigieg is now second.

The Emerson Poll:

Sanders 32%
Buttigieg 23%
Warren 13%
Biden 11%
Klobuchar 9%
Gabbard 6%
Yang and Steyer 2%

Suffolk Poll:

Sanders 24%
Buttigieg 23%
Warren 13%
Biden 11%
Undecided 11%
Klobuchar 6%
Gabbard 4%
Yang and Steyer 3%

I suspect we'll see a couple more today but it's quite clear Buttigieg has benefited the most, probably because he was polling in the low to mid-teens. Sanders still holds a commanding lead despite what Suffolk shows but it seems he's around his ceiling (it's somewhere between 30-35%); I suspect Buttigieg is close to his too (20-25%). Warren is in big trouble: if she gets under 15%, she, I think, will be out of the race. Same goes for Biden too. Klobuchar should be out too though she has qualified for the Nevada Debate.

However, anything can happen at tonight's debate so this small percent of undecideds can make a difference, especially for Warren and Biden, who will need 15% just to have an excuse to remain in the race.

[Ifreann]

And Sanders has declared victory in Iowa based on the fact that he won more of the popular vote, which makes sense to me. Seems pretty ridiculous to me that a candidate can win more of the votes and a different candidate can be the official "winner".

It looks like they did the SDEs as a sign for the victor though I would agree Sanders won due to the fact he got more of the popular vote but the same delegates like Buttigieg. I personally view it as a tie which can be taken either way.

Based on reported discrepancies in the results, Sanders won on SDEs as well.

[Zurkerx]

It looks like they did the SDEs as a sign for the victor though I would agree Sanders won due to the fact he got more of the popular vote but the same delegates like Buttigieg. I personally view it as a tie which can be taken either way.

Based on reported discrepancies in the results, Sanders won on SDEs as well.

I haven't heard about that, only there are discrepancies. So, if there is a recanvass, I'll wait until I see if Sanders did win the SDEs but it's honestly possible. Reading this article, clearly several precincts broke the rules, putting the caucus system in more jeopardy (and likely, seeing that damn system abolished). It appears some mistakes will be easier to fix while others will be impossible. God damn, the IDP (and precincts) fucked this up badly.

[Ifreann]

Based on reported discrepancies in the results, Sanders won on SDEs as well.

I haven't heard about that, only there are discrepancies. So, if there is a recanvass, I'll wait until I see if Sanders did win the SDEs but it's honestly possible. Reading this article, clearly several precincts broke the rules, putting the caucus system in more jeopardy (and likely, seeing that damn system abolished). It appears some mistakes will be easier to fix while others will be impossible. God damn, the IDP (and precincts) fucked this up badly.

Yes indeed.

[Definitely Not Trumptonium]

Ted Cruz is based

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1225649368046305280

[Juristonia]

Glad to see Cruz had time in his busy schedule of sticking his tongue up the arse of the guy who insulted him, his wife and basically accused his dad of murder to be a bitchy teen on twitter.

[Valrifell]

Ted Cruz is based

https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1225649368046305280

Just another attempt to appeal to the edgy "based" crowd. Neat to see that such basic tactics still work on people who tend to think they're smarter than average.

[Gormwood]

Glad to see Cruz had time in his busy schedule of sticking his tongue up the arse of the guy who insulted him, his wife and basically accused his dad of murder to be a bitchy teen on twitter.

Every time Cruz tries to talk smack someone needs to tweet him the Suicide Hotline photo.

[San Lumen]

"They" being poll workers and volunteers. Employed or organized by the Iowa Democratic Party.

Now I'm thinking fuck the state parties. If the DNC is going to take the blame every time a state party goes crooked or fucks up, the DNC might as well step in with boots on and run all the state primaries.

I think both the Iowa Democratic Party and the DNC are against Sanders winning. But I doubt they can successfully stop him this time.

This conspiracy nonsense is beyond tiresome. Why is it whenever he loses or thee is an issue it’s a conspiracy against him? Show the receipts instead of making grandiose claims with no basis in reality