2020 US General Election Thread IV: The Battle Begins

[Cisairse]

I move to return Iowa to the status of unorganized unincorporated territory.

Can we Uno reverse the Louisiana Purchase?

I wholeheartedly support this.

[The Wasatch]

Actually though, we need to rearrange the caucuses. They give disproportionate power to a few states that really have no reason to have that much. It might create additional logistical errors, but the current system clearly isn't working. They really ought to be all at once.

[Cisairse]

Actually though, we need to rearrange the caucuses. They give disproportionate power to a few states that really have no reason to have that much. It might create additional logistical errors, but the current system clearly isn't working. They really ought to be all at once.

I strongly oppose all-at-once. But Iowa shouldn't be first.

[Penguin Union Nation]

Surprised and a little disappointed Pete Buttigieg won this round (if you can call it that). But Bernie still gets 10 pledged delegates like him, so it's not entirely bad. Not to mention that Biden cratered. I guess all I can do is wait and hope for the next caucus.

[Corrian]

Hey, is that more results I see showing up?

[Farnhamia]

Actually though, we need to rearrange the caucuses. They give disproportionate power to a few states that really have no reason to have that much. It might create additional logistical errors, but the current system clearly isn't working. They really ought to be all at once.

I strongly oppose all-at-once. But Iowa shouldn't be first.

Okay. We'll do them in ascending order of the number of delegates, three a week for sixteen weeks plus one week with the last two. That would work. And none of this caucusing shit, just straight up voting, please, percentages to determine the number of delegates awarded.

Good. Who wants pizza?

[Blargoblarg]

Surprised and a little disappointed Pete Buttigieg won this round (if you can call it that). But Bernie still gets 10 pledged delegates like him, so it's not entirely bad. Not to mention that Biden cratered. I guess all I can do is wait and hope for the next caucus.

I'm not gonna assume Buttigieg has won Iowa until they release the final results. They're now at about 71%, Sanders still leading the popular vote while Buttigieg still leads the state delegates.

[Corrian]

Ooof, current results have Buttigieg and Bernie tied in pledged delegates, and Biden with 0. ZERO.

[San Lumen]

In the meantime, as we wait for Iowa to finish up(and for Buttigieg to win a possibly Pyrrhic victory if the popular vote continues as it has), we had another federal level vote tonight, the Baltimore Central by-primary to replace Elijah Cummings. I was wrong about his widow winning, with nearly 78% of the vote in, Kweisi Mfume, former NAACP President, will be going off against Baltimore County GOP Committeewoman Kimberly Klacik in April. Mfume will easily win.

As for my take on next week....I'm sorry but I can't do it this week, I came down with the flu and don't really feel like poring through New Hampshire(though I do believe Sanders will get a boost if the Iowa trends continue, he will win and the only question is by how much) or the All Races Great and Small sections.

That is quite the upset in Maryland.

in the state legislative elections; in Georgia SD-13 two Republicans advanced to the runoff

in Minnesota HD-30A City council-member Paul Novotny won this very red district based around the city of Elk River with about the same margin as the 2018 victor

In the other election in MN HD 60A activist Sydney Jordan won with 87 percent of the vote over a candidate of the Legal Marijuana Party in this titanium blue district in the Northeast neighborhood of Minneapolis

Next week is the New Hampshire Primary and it will likely be a win for Bernie Sanders. The only question by how much does he win

[Corrian]

No matter how this turns out, Buttigieg becomes the first openly gay presidential candidate to either:
1. Win pledged delegates
2. Win a primary state in general.

[USS Monitor]

Iowa results could have been worse. I'm glad we're not down to a two-way race between Sanders and Biden, because that would be very depressing to sit through for the rest of the primaries.

Buttigieg has a bit of a slippery quality that I don't like, but at least he's not just coasting like Biden.

[Outer Sparta]

Ooof, current results have Buttigieg and Bernie tied in pledged delegates, and Biden with 0. ZERO.

Pete and Bernie have ten, Warren has four, Biden implodes with zero.

[Shofercia]

So let me get this straight:

1. The people who built the voting app are former Clinton staffers, probably with a grudge for Sanders
2. DNC discouraged the results simply being phoned in, relying on the app instead
3. Those who designed the app had close ties, (in one case marital ties) to Buttigieg's campaign staffers, fanboys, and fangirls; after a very long delay, (to ensure data integrity, of course, of course) Buttigieg just happened to come out on top, even though the only polls that had him on top were his own
4. In the meantime, impeachment became an even bigger joke, and President Trump is more popular than he ever was before

But let's keep on sticking with former Clinton Campaigners, what could possibly go wrong? Oh yeah, 2020 November election: barring a depression, Trump takes Iowa. But you guys just keep on keeping on, making friends (for Trump) and influencing people, also for Trump. I don't give a fuck about this disgrace of primary, it's time for New Hampshire to shine.

[Penguin Union Nation]

So let me get this straight:

1. The people who built the voting app are former Clinton staffers, probably with a grudge for Sanders
2. DNC discouraged the results simply being phoned in, relying on the app instead
3. Those who designed the app had close ties, (in one case marital ties) to Buttigieg's campaign staffers, fanboys, and fangirls; after a very long delay, (to ensure data integrity, of course, of course) Buttigieg just happened to come out on top, even though the only polls that had him on top were his own

Come, now. That's positively conspiratorial! Why would anyone suspect an honest, hardworking CIA operative small town mayor of any kind of suspicious doings? It's probably all just a coincidence.

[South Odreria 2]

Looks like Buttigieg will hang on for the W.

[Kruiven]

Per 538:

If Buttigieg wins Iowa, his chances for a majority of pledged delegates goes up to 10%, if Sanders wins Iowa Buttigieg's chances go to 1%, and if it sticks with this split result, Buttigieg's chances go to 5%.

If Sanders wins Iowa, his chances for a majority of pledged delegates goes up to 64%, if Buttigieg wins Bernie's chances go to 36%, and if it sticks with a split result, Bernie's chances go to 48%.

Warren is basically the same no matter what outcome. If Buttigieg wins she goes to 7%, Bernie wins goes to 6%, and split result 7%.

Biden's varies more, if Buttigieg wins his chances go to 21%, if Bernie wins his chances go to 14%, and if the split result sticks his chances go to 17%.

"No Majority" also varies, if Buttigieg wins it goes to 26%, if Bernie wins it goes to 16%, and if the split result sticks it goes to 23%.

"Other" candidates have a combined <1 regardless, sorry Klobmentum.

[Gormwood]

People talking like Iowa is the only thing that matters. Didn't Clinton win Iowa in 2008?

[Galloism]

People talking like Iowa is the only thing that matters. Didn't Clinton win Iowa in 2008?

Yes.

Notably, she also won the primary.

Also can’t read. See post below.

[Cannot think of a name]

People talking like Iowa is the only thing that matters. Didn't Clinton win Iowa in 2008?

By .23%
Edit: Look who got the year wrong...this guy, this guy got the year wrong. Because 2008 looks so much like 2016...sigh.

[Cisairse]

Surprised and a little disappointed Pete Buttigieg won this round (if you can call it that). But Bernie still gets 10 pledged delegates like him, so it's not entirely bad. Not to mention that Biden cratered. I guess all I can do is wait and hope for the next caucus.

Bernie won the popular vote and currently the pledged delegate vote is tied, so I really have no idea where this "Pete won" narrative is coming from.

I strongly oppose all-at-once. But Iowa shouldn't be first.

Okay. We'll do them in ascending order of the number of delegates, three a week for sixteen weeks plus one week with the last two. That would work. And none of this caucusing shit, just straight up voting, please, percentages to determine the number of delegates awarded.

Good. Who wants pizza?

Slightly re-order this so instead of one week with the last two, the first week only has two and I am in.

Ooof, current results have Buttigieg and Bernie tied in pledged delegates, and Biden with 0. ZERO.

Keep in mind only 24 of the 21 delegates have been called. I would be extremely surprised if Biden didn't get at least three or four delegates by the end of the day.

Iowa results could have been worse. I'm glad we're not down to a two-way race between Sanders and Biden, because that would be very depressing to sit through for the rest of the primaries.

Buttigieg has a bit of a slippery quality that I don't like, but at least he's not just coasting like Biden.

Yeah honestly I feel that the biggest takeaway of the Iowa caucus isn't who won, it's who lost. Yang, Steyer, Patrick, Gabbard, and Bennet are effectively no longer in the race. Klobuchar is on life support, and Biden needs to work overtime to recoup his appearances (especially considering he is heading into a disaster in New Hampshire).

Meanwhile, Warren is still very much on track to remain above the 15% threshold for delegates.

[Neu California]

People talking like Iowa is the only thing that matters. Didn't Clinton win Iowa in 2008?

According to Wikipedia, Obama won the 2008 Iowa caucuses both in votes and delegates

I don't remember anymore since its been 12 years

[Cisairse]

People talking like Iowa is the only thing that matters. Didn't Clinton win Iowa in 2008?

...no, Obama won by 8 points. Clinton came in third.

[Cannot think of a name]

People talking like Iowa is the only thing that matters. Didn't Clinton win Iowa in 2008?

...no, Obama won by 8 points. Clinton came in third.

Now that I'm talking about the right year (previous post, not so much) this was the thing that gave Obama legitimacy and momentum to challenge Clinton. But, it wasn't like Obama won Iowa and then coasted, Obama also had an extensive ground game in fifty states including states that Clinton didn't concentrate on, building many small victories and eating away at margins in big states like California. Notably it meant that an almost certain nomination ended up lasting well into the process leading to an eventual upset.

Buttigieg has concentrated on early states strongly at the cost of the rest of the states which is why Buttigieg is doing better in Iowa than he does nationally. The hope is that early results give him enough a boost to gather donors and talking head legitimacy for the rest of the race. It has worked in this thread, apparently, but we'll see if it works at large.

[Galloism]

People talking like Iowa is the only thing that matters. Didn't Clinton win Iowa in 2008?

...no, Obama won by 8 points. Clinton came in third.

Oh he said 2008, I read that as 2016 for some reason.

2016 - Hillary by a nose
2012 - Obama (incumbent)
2008 - Obama
2004 - Kerry
2000 - Al Gore
1996 - Bill Clinton (incumbent)
1992 - Tom Harkin (last time a candidate won Iowa but lost the primary, he was also from Iowa)

[Cisairse]

With the NYT delivering this line:

Under more systematic examination, little reason to think remaining precincts are fundamentally unrepresentative (favoring either Buttigieg/Sanders).

and analyzing the current vote counts, I'm going to go ahead and beat AP to the punch here and call Iowa for Mr. Sanders.