2020 US General Election Thread IV: The Battle Begins

[Page]

I know some of you accuse me of being a conspiratorial Bernie Bro for calling out the bias of corporate media and the DNC, but I figured I would share my take anyway:

I don't believe conspiracies without evidence and unless evidence comes out that the Shadow disaster in Iowa was intentional foul play, I will assume it was just a matter of incompetence.

However, I do believe corporate media will seize the chance to cover at length the mess itself so they can distract from the fact that Bernie Sanders was extremely successful and Joe Biden was utterly crushed.

[Republic of Turbin]

I’ve literally been lurking on this thread since 5pm yesterday. Hopefully Bernie and Warren do well.

[Aureumterra]

Can’t wait to hear the SOTU address, especially what Mr. Trump has to say about the Democrat party’s current state

[South Odreria 2]

Biden's camp is arguing that the vote was rigged, may try to get a court injunction to block the results from being released.

[The Lone Alliance]

Biden's camp is arguing that the vote was rigged, may try to get a court injunction to block the results from being released.

Apparently that was CNN publishing a rumor as fact, Biden's campaign is denying it.

[The Black Forrest]

I know some of you accuse me of being a conspiratorial Bernie Bro for calling out the bias of corporate media and the DNC, but I figured I would share my take anyway:

I don't believe conspiracies without evidence and unless evidence comes out that the Shadow disaster in Iowa was intentional foul play, I will assume it was just a matter of incompetence.

However, I do believe corporate media will seize the chance to cover at length the mess itself so they can distract from the fact that Bernie Sanders was extremely successful and Joe Biden was utterly crushed.

What was that about conspiracies without evidence?

The media was pointing out how badly Biden was doing. There was an indoor gym and they explained out Bernie’s supporters were increasing and they kept moving Biden’s area down the length of the bleachers till it had a barely noticeable spot.

You can blame the press for liking disasters and screwups.

Then again, the DNC could have said call it an error while they forced Bernie out.

[Zurkerx]

I know some of you accuse me of being a conspiratorial Bernie Bro for calling out the bias of corporate media and the DNC, but I figured I would share my take anyway:

I don't believe conspiracies without evidence and unless evidence comes out that the Shadow disaster in Iowa was intentional foul play, I will assume it was just a matter of incompetence.

However, I do believe corporate media will seize the chance to cover at length the mess itself so they can distract from the fact that Bernie Sanders was extremely successful and Joe Biden was utterly crushed.

I do agree, they will though after this debacle, I can't see them distracting voters that well: Democratic Voters, particularly Sanders Supporters, will be watching them like a hawk from this point on. Sanders I suspect will do well, either coming in first or second though that margin will be small, likely a statistical tie.

Biden's camp is arguing that the vote was rigged, may try to get a court injunction to block the results from being released.

They're definitely worry about the results: they got clobbered most likely and it's going to show. That would mean the likes of Klobuchar and Buttigieg tearing him apart for other moderates, something he can ill afford.

Can’t wait to hear the SOTU address, especially what Mr. Trump has to say about the Democrat party’s current state

I have no plans to watch the SOTU but only because it's honestly going to be the same as it always is.

[The Black Forrest]

I know some of you accuse me of being a conspiratorial Bernie Bro for calling out the bias of corporate media and the DNC, but I figured I would share my take anyway:

I don't believe conspiracies without evidence and unless evidence comes out that the Shadow disaster in Iowa was intentional foul play, I will assume it was just a matter of incompetence.

However, I do believe corporate media will seize the chance to cover at length the mess itself so they can distract from the fact that Bernie Sanders was extremely successful and Joe Biden was utterly crushed.

I do agree, they will though after this debacle, I can't see them distracting voters that well: Democratic Voters, particularly Sanders Supporters, will be watching them like a hawk from this point on. Sanders I suspect will do well, either coming in first or second though that margin will be small, likely a statistical tie.

Biden's camp is arguing that the vote was rigged, may try to get a court injunction to block the results from being released.

They're definitely worry about the results: they got clobbered most likely and it's going to show. That would mean the likes of Klobuchar and Buttigieg tearing him apart for other moderates, something he can ill afford.

Can’t wait to hear the SOTU address, especially what Mr. Trump has to say about the Democrat party’s current state

I have no plans to watch the SOTU but only because it's honestly going to be the same as it always is.

Oh come on. You know you have forgotten trump won in 2016.

[Gormwood]

Can’t wait to hear the SOTU address, especially what Mr. Trump has to say about the Democrat party’s current state

Wonder what would have been your reaction if Obama had trash talked the GOP during a SOTUA? Being formal alone got him a "YOU LIE!"

[Outer Sparta]

Can’t wait to hear the SOTU address, especially what Mr. Trump has to say about the Democrat party’s current state

Wonder what would have been your reaction if Obama had trash talked the GOP during a SOTUA? Being formal alone got him a "YOU LIE!"

If Obama talked trash to the GOP they would immediately impeach him the next day.

[The Black Forrest]

Wonder what would have been your reaction if Obama had trash talked the GOP during a SOTUA? Being formal alone got him a "YOU LIE!"

If Obama talked trash to the GOP they would immediately impeach him the next day.

Both of you are assuming the base who would eventually support trump would understand the multi-syllable words Obama uses.

[Genivaria]

What's all this nonsense about a voting App?

[The Black Forrest]

What's all this nonsense about a voting App?

It go boom.

If I had to guess? Cheaply written and not enough resources allocated to handle the data flow. They are probably wondering if they got the data......

[Zurkerx]

I do agree, they will though after this debacle, I can't see them distracting voters that well: Democratic Voters, particularly Sanders Supporters, will be watching them like a hawk from this point on. Sanders I suspect will do well, either coming in first or second though that margin will be small, likely a statistical tie.



They're definitely worry about the results: they got clobbered most likely and it's going to show. That would mean the likes of Klobuchar and Buttigieg tearing him apart for other moderates, something he can ill afford.



I have no plans to watch the SOTU but only because it's honestly going to be the same as it always is.

Oh come on. You know you have forgotten trump won in 2016.

I could never forget that man, man...

I have no interest in the SOTU, especially from Trump. It's honestly going to be the same spiel: The Economy is the Best, Democrats Bad and investigate them, socialism bad, and I'm the best President, believe me!

[Major-Tom]

I know some of you accuse me of being a conspiratorial Bernie Bro for calling out the bias of corporate media and the DNC, but I figured I would share my take anyway:

I don't believe conspiracies without evidence and unless evidence comes out that the Shadow disaster in Iowa was intentional foul play, I will assume it was just a matter of incompetence.

However, I do believe corporate media will seize the chance to cover at length the mess itself so they can distract from the fact that Bernie Sanders was extremely successful and Joe Biden was utterly crushed.

For once, I might side with conspiracy-minded ideas and say that it’s possible it was foul play. Nothing is proven, I can’t definitively say it was, but I am skeptical that the several days of fiascos we’ve seen in Iowa are purely coincidental.

[Outer Sparta]

What's all this nonsense about a voting App?

It's a random glitchy app paid by the Democratic Party and Buttigieg's campaign tasked to count caucus votes. As if technology in elections wasn't bad enough.

[Sougra]

To be fair, primaries and caucuses are overrated: maybe they should do what civilized countries do and have leadership elections within their party membership all at once as opposed to doing this weird and archaic system that seems to only exist to inflate the costs of elections.

B-But then the poors m-might run for office.

I know this is a bit further back, but I actually disagree with the idea that the system in other countries is better than the American one. To my understanding, I feel that it's far more democratic to let the people who will vote in the general to decide who they want to be the "party leader" rather than a bunch of party members who're usually only looking out for their own interest and require payment to get in and vote.

I think more people should look at the American approach, since it's more democratic, despite it costing more money. Then again, I could be wrong, so feel free to convince me otherwise

Also, Iowa caucus results (well, about 50% of them for some reason) are coming out in like 30 minutes, so we'll see what happens.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

If Sanders ends up winning the election, would he just die in his first term?

Here is the SSA actuarial table, work it out for yourself

16.4% chance ... 1 in 6

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If Sanders ends up winning the election, would he just die in his first term?

There are some people that do live pass 80 so it'll depend on the health of the individual. Sanders will be 79 this year, which means if he wins and runs for re-election, he'll be 83. It's not an impossible feat. However, the stress of the White House takes a toll on everyone. In Sanders particular case, it could kill him. While he is overall healthy, he did have a heart attack back in October and the risk of having another increases:

Once you have one heart attack, the risk for having another heart attack rises; this risk is especially high for 3 to 5 years after the first heart attack.

Of course, every individual is different, but in Sanders case, the stress of the Presidency could prove to be too much. Same goes to Biden though he hasn't had a heart attack.

That we know of. No candidate (or even President) is obliged to disclose heart attacks. I'm actually surprised that Bernie didn't stay quiet about his.

[Myrensis]

What evidence is there of outright fraud? There was none in 2016.

Keep spinning that lie
https://observer.com/2017/08/court-admi ... t-sanders/

Huh, for a moment I thought somebody had actually found some actual evidence of 'rigging' in the 2016 Primaries..but it's just the court acknowledging the reality that there is nothing in the law or constitution regulating political parties or their nomination processes, so you can't actually sue them because you think the process was rigged.

[Cannot think of a name]

The hedgening begins:

A source within Pete Buttigieg's campaign said that the initial results from Iowa are unlikely to be representative of the overall picture of the state because the precincts in urban areas are more likely to have come in quickly.

The aide said they are still confident about the results and that the delegate count will still be in their favor.

But the rural districts where they believe Buttigieg over performed in are not likely to be released in these early results and they may take longer to come in.

[Cannot think of a name]

STATE DELEGATES
Buttigieg
26.9%
Sanders
25.1%
Warren
18.3%
Biden
15.6%
Klobuchar
12.6%
Yang
1.1%
Steyer
0.3%

With 62% reporting.

[Gravlen]

WaPo has this on their front page:

*Removed due to their own edit*

Updated figures from WaPo:

Candidate Pct. Votes
Sanders 26.3 % 28,220
Buttigieg 25.1 27,030
Warren 20.7 22,254
Biden 13.2 14,176
Klobuchar 12.4 13,357
Total votes from 62% of precincts 107,496

[Nobel Hobos 2]

We can expect Recep Pete Erdigieg to pull of a surprise 50% plus victory if the app is legitimate.

Buttigieg was irresponsible and foolish to declare victory that prematurely. Now even if he pulls a majority it looks suspect, but if he doesn't he looks like an idiot.

He was premature *snicker*

I don't find it suspicious, I find it callow. And a sign of not having good staff around him at the time.

Here on NSG at least one of us picked up that the counting had stopped, since 4 to 5 thousand being reported on NYT as "final" couldn't possibly be the state total of votes cast. But at Pete HQ they seem to have just waited a while, gone "well that must be it" and sent him out to claim victory.

A less harsh view is that in elections the networks do sometimes call a district or a state when they only have 2% of the vote. But I'm pretty sure they have analysts and they're considering WHICH 2% that is, not just the first precincts to report.

And here's something I don't know because I don't get US cable. Were any news outlets calling a victory for Buttigieg before he claimed victory?

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I mean, so has Sanders so the same applies to him.



He'll undoubtedly pick someone young: he has to.

Would Tammy Duckworth be young enough? She is 51.

51 is young enough, with a 1.1% chance of dying within 4 years.
I don't know Tammy that well but what I see seems perfect.

That said, the maths is fine for a Sanders/Warren ticket. The chances of them BOTH dying are very small.

(Warren's chance of dying within 4 years is 5.0% … multiplied by Sanders' 16.4% … is 0.8% )

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Voted for Sanders in the poll, was not expecting ...

"It's funny" is never a justification for political nicknaming.

[The World Capitalist Confederation]

Buttigieg was irresponsible and foolish to declare victory that prematurely. Now even if he pulls a majority it looks suspect, but if he doesn't he looks like an idiot.

He was premature *snicker*

I don't find it suspicious, I find it callow. And a sign of not having good staff around him at the time.

Here on NSG at least one of us picked up that the counting had stopped, since 4 to 5 thousand being reported on NYT as "final" couldn't possibly be the state total of votes cast. But at Pete HQ they seem to have just waited a while, gone "well that must be it" and sent him out to claim victory.

A less harsh view is that in elections the networks do sometimes call a district or a state when they only have 2% of the vote. But I'm pretty sure they have analysts and they're considering WHICH 2% that is, not just the first precincts to report.

And here's something I don't know because I don't get US cable. Were any news outlets calling a victory for Buttigieg before he claimed victory?

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Would Tammy Duckworth be young enough? She is 51.

51 is young enough, with a 1.1% chance of dying within 4 years.
I don't know Tammy that well but what I see seems perfect.

That said, the maths is fine for a Sanders/Warren ticket. The chances of them BOTH dying are very small.

(Warren's chance of dying within 4 years is 5.0% … multiplied by Sanders' 16.4% … is 0.8% )

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Voted for Sanders in the poll, was not expecting ...

"It's funny" is never a justification for political nicknaming.

8 years gives Bernie about 50/50 chances. And besides, you think Buttigieg is going to get his wittle fewwings hurt by some guy on the internet calling him Booty-judge? The rule, to my knowledge, applies to your fellow posters, and not to politicians.

[South Odreria 2]

Sanders narrowly ahead in popular vote, Buttigieg narrowly ahead in delegates.
Buttigieg currently at 6.5% nationally, trailing Biden by 20 points.