2020 US General Election Thread IV: The Battle Begins

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Given all the facts we know so far about what's happened, it actually is starting to be a bit difficult for me to put them together in a way that fits incompetence rather than intentionality

- poll gets killed due to complaint from Pete, all reports indicate he would've fared poorly in it compared to Sanders and Warren
- caucus results can't be released due to technical failures w the app
- his campaign has been paying the people at this app, who are also huge supporters of his
- Apparently Iowa state party is not communicating much with campaigns, and now results will come out late tomorrow?
- lots of people hadn't been properly trained on how to use the app
- Pete waits for the other campaigns to make statements, then after they've finished, declares victory despite there still being no results
- only after they realize Pete is trying to claim victory does Bernie put out numbers suggesting he's ahead or try and push that
- Biden's people are now trying to cast doubt on the whole thing and further slow reporting

Like it's looking REALLY bad- there's a lot of combinations of these things that together could make me say "eh, probs just a series of fuckups, nbd", but everything together is starting to strain my credulity

Don't forget that, in addition to all of that, Shadow Inc.'s CEO's husband is literally one of Buttigieg's staffers.

I'll be the fucking Queen of England if this is somehow declared to be one giant coincidence.

Could you provide a source for that for me? I would like to make sure it's a reliable source and then if it is I have some social media posts to make.

[Senkaku]

Given all the facts we know so far about what's happened, it actually is starting to be a bit difficult for me to put them together in a way that fits incompetence rather than intentionality

- poll gets killed due to complaint from Pete, all reports indicate he would've fared poorly in it compared to Sanders and Warren
- caucus results can't be released due to technical failures w the app
- his campaign has been paying the people at this app, who are also huge supporters of his
- Apparently Iowa state party is not communicating much with campaigns, and now results will come out late tomorrow?
- lots of people hadn't been properly trained on how to use the app
- Pete waits for the other campaigns to make statements, then after they've finished, declares victory despite there still being no results
- only after they realize Pete is trying to claim victory does Bernie put out numbers suggesting he's ahead or try and push that
- Biden's people are now trying to cast doubt on the whole thing and further slow reporting

Like it's looking REALLY bad- there's a lot of combinations of these things that together could make me say "eh, probs just a series of fuckups, nbd", but everything together is starting to strain my credulity

I kind of agree with this:

It's too dumb to be true.

And anyway, I find fault with Iowa Democrats for not testing the ap. Least they could have done.

People can be really incompetent sometimes, and they have photos from caucus sites that they can check against to make sure the results are accurate.

Oh, I'm sure we'll eventually get the information, but the effect of blunting Bernie's (and Warren's) momentum, knocking out any primetime victory speeches or whatever, reducing coverage of a serious Biden defeat and focusing more on what a shitshow the whole thing was (and giving his campaign cover to say the results are messed up if they aren't in his favor), and giving Pete some energy heading into NH... a lot of things can be achieved, given that NH is days away

[Page]

People can be really incompetent sometimes, and they have photos from caucus sites that they can check against to make sure the results are accurate.

Oh, I'm sure we'll eventually get the information, but the effect of blunting Bernie's (and Warren's) momentum, knocking out any primetime victory speeches or whatever, reducing coverage of a serious Biden defeat and focusing more on what a shitshow the whole thing was (and giving his campaign cover to say the results are messed up if they aren't in his favor), and giving Pete some energy heading into NH... a lot of things can be achieved, given that NH is days away[/quote]

That will be the agenda on CNN and MSNBC, talk about the mess but not how Biden was crushed and Sanders kicked ass.

[Senkaku]

People can be really incompetent sometimes, and they have photos from caucus sites that they can check against to make sure the results are accurate.

Oh, I'm sure we'll eventually get the information, but the effect of blunting Bernie's (and Warren's) momentum, knocking out any primetime victory speeches or whatever, reducing coverage of a serious Biden defeat and focusing more on what a shitshow the whole thing was (and giving his campaign cover to say the results are messed up if they aren't in his favor), and giving Pete some energy heading into NH... a lot of things can be achieved, given that NH is days away

That will be the agenda on CNN and MSNBC, talk about the mess but not how Biden was crushed and Sanders kicked ass.[/quote]
Here's NYT's reporting on the matter right now, I bolded relevant areas:

"Christopher C. Krebs, the director of the Homeland Security Department’s cybersecurity agency, said late Monday evening that the mobile app being used in the caucuses had not been vetted or evaluated by the agency.

Cybersecurity experts also said that the app had not been properly tested at scale, and that it was hastily put together over the past two months. Iowa Democratic Party officials only decided to use the app to report results after a previous party proposal — which entailed having caucus participants call in their votes over the phone — was scrapped, on the advice of Democratic National Committee officials."

Weird! I wonder why those DNC officials would advise them to use this one app, instead of just reporting over the phone. What a coincidence!

[USS Monitor]

Biden's campaign is tanking anyway. This snafu isn't going to change that.

[Telconi]

I mean, as much as I wish they hadn't, the Republicans pulled off a fair and unbiased primary in '16.

Fair perhaps, but their counting rules are in no way unbiased. Trump got 40% of the vote but there was no need for a brokered convention since he had an overwhelming majority of the delegates.

Dem primaries are at least mostly proportional. The number of delegates each state depends on the vote that state.

And if any of the other candidates had swapped places with Trump, the results would have gone to them as they did to Trump. That is the very definition of unbiased, an ide yical result regardless of who turned out ahead.

[Corrian]

I might be wrong but I believe Sanders' internal poll numbers. It might be close, but I believe that when the dust settles Sanders will be on top.

And that is not good news for Buttigieg, Iowa might be the most favorable state for him. Lots of middle-class, white, suburban Democrats. When we get to states in which people of color are a huge part of the electorate, Buttigieg will be in single digits.

I'm also hopeful that after a few more rounds, Klobuchar will call it quits. She has no support from left-of-center voters and can't even use "vote for me cause I'm a woman" to her advantage because Warren is a woman with far better policy positions.

Big takeaway at the moment for me seems to be how poorly Biden looks to be doing.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Fair perhaps, but their counting rules are in no way unbiased. Trump got 40% of the vote but there was no need for a brokered convention since he had an overwhelming majority of the delegates.

Dem primaries are at least mostly proportional. The number of delegates each state depends on the vote that state.

And if any of the other candidates had swapped places with Trump, the results would have gone to them as they did to Trump. That is the very definition of unbiased, an ide yical result regardless of who turned out ahead.

It's not the thread for it, but it depends on your definition of bias. You're talking about bias between candidates, I'm talking about bias between x front-runner and y or z other contenders. The Republican system manufactures a majority from what is usually only a plurality, and I find fault with that.

[The East Marches II]

This is turning into a real shitshow. Even the comments section on the WSJ is salty at the DNC. That's impressive.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

I might be wrong but I believe Sanders' internal poll numbers. It might be close, but I believe that when the dust settles Sanders will be on top.

And that is not good news for Buttigieg, Iowa might be the most favorable state for him. Lots of middle-class, white, suburban Democrats. When we get to states in which people of color are a huge part of the electorate, Buttigieg will be in single digits.

I'm also hopeful that after a few more rounds, Klobuchar will call it quits. She has no support from left-of-center voters and can't even use "vote for me cause I'm a woman" to her advantage because Warren is a woman with far better policy positions.

Big takeaway at the moment for me seems to be how poorly Biden looks to be doing.

Are you going off the first count, and if so isn't it just a fraction of the expected votes?

[Corrian]

Big takeaway at the moment for me seems to be how poorly Biden looks to be doing.

Are you going off the first count, and if so isn't it just a fraction of the expected votes?

Yeah, though even those results went away now on New York Times?

[Myrensis]

Oh, I'm sure we'll eventually get the information, but the effect of blunting Bernie's (and Warren's) momentum, knocking out any primetime victory speeches or whatever, reducing coverage of a serious Biden defeat and focusing more on what a shitshow the whole thing was (and giving his campaign cover to say the results are messed up if they aren't in his favor), and giving Pete some energy heading into NH... a lot of things can be achieved, given that NH is days away

That will be the agenda on CNN and MSNBC, talk about the mess but not how Biden was crushed and Sanders kicked ass.
Here's NYT's reporting on the matter right now, I bolded relevant areas:

"Christopher C. Krebs, the director of the Homeland Security Department’s cybersecurity agency, said late Monday evening that the mobile app being used in the caucuses had not been vetted or evaluated by the agency.

Cybersecurity experts also said that the app had not been properly tested at scale, and that it was hastily put together over the past two months. Iowa Democratic Party officials only decided to use the app to report results after a previous party proposal — which entailed having caucus participants call in their votes over the phone — was scrapped, on the advice of Democratic National Committee officials."

Weird! I wonder why those DNC officials would advise them to use this one app, instead of just reporting over the phone. What a coincidence!

You seem to be missing a few links in the chain between 'DNC advised them not to have results reported over the phone' and 'DNC told them to use this one app'.

And should also be noted that it was Sanders allies that pressed for all these extra reporting requirements in an all ready shitty inefficient Caucus system because they were mad about his narrow loss in 2016.

[The Lone Alliance]

Biden's campaign is tanking anyway. This snafu isn't going to change that.

Seriously one has to wonder what sort of genius strategy involves attacking voters who question you.

[Torrocca]

Don't forget that, in addition to all of that, Shadow Inc.'s CEO's husband is literally one of Buttigieg's staffers.

I'll be the fucking Queen of England if this is somehow declared to be one giant coincidence.

Could you provide a source for that for me? I would like to make sure it's a reliable source and then if it is I have some social media posts to make.

Actually, I fucked up (unless I'm looking at the wrong person who also happens to be a Buttigieg staffer); the dude's just a friend of hers.

[Page]

Could you provide a source for that for me? I would like to make sure it's a reliable source and then if it is I have some social media posts to make.

Actually, I fucked up (unless I'm looking at the wrong person who also happens to be a Buttigieg staffer); the dude's just a friend of hers.

Alright then. It still is sketchy though, especially since Buttigieg did personal business with this app company.

[Torrocca]

Actually, I fucked up (unless I'm looking at the wrong person who also happens to be a Buttigieg staffer); the dude's just a friend of hers.

Alright then. It still is sketchy though, especially since Buttigieg did personal business with this app company.

NO WAIT I FUCKED UP AGAIN LMAO: his brother is the one who's married to her! And he's also a Buttigieg staffer! Specifically a strategist, as he claims in his bio. His wife Tara owns ACRONYM which owns Shadow Inc., and his brother, Buttigieg's Iowa Comms Director, is the muppet who leaked the passwords for numerous precincts for the app, as seen in his media posts.

This fucking rabbit hole is Goddamned absurd.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

Are you going off the first count, and if so isn't it just a fraction of the expected votes?

Yeah, though even those results went away now on New York Times?

I cannot confirm, NYT kicked me out.

If we only have 1 or 2% of the results, we're basically guessing. Several candidates are too (claiming victory even).

[Vassenor]

So was the count rigged by the establishment or not? I'm getting confusing signals here.

[Nobel Hobos 2]

So was the count rigged by the establishment or not? I'm getting confusing signals here.

Nobody knows. Anything. Conspiracy you say? Let's hear it.

[Heloin]

So was the count rigged by the establishment or not? I'm getting confusing signals here.

It’s unlikely this was malice. Probably incompetence.

[Washington Resistance Army]

This election season is off to a wonderous start lol. At this rate the Chinese/Israelis/Russians won't even have to fuck with the actual election, we'll ruin it ourselves

[Corrian]

This election season is off to a wonderous start lol. At this rate the Chinese/Israelis/Russians won't even have to fuck with the actual election, we'll ruin it ourselves

Can we all collectively agree we need to retire caucuses?

[Page]

This election season is off to a wonderous start lol. At this rate the Chinese/Israelis/Russians won't even have to fuck with the actual election, we'll ruin it ourselves

Can we all collectively agree we need to retire caucuses?

Yes, it's a relic that we no longer need.

[Myrensis]

So was the count rigged by the establishment or not? I'm getting confusing signals here.

So far it seems to be a confluence of several things:

1. Caucuses are inefficient, undemocratic, and long past their sell by date to begin with
2. After the close count in 2016, precincts were required to report more detailed information about each round of the caucus, when previously they had only reported their delegate count
3. In an effort to make the shitty outdated Caucuses seem more modern and hip, the Iowa Democrats decided to use an app to handle reporting...only said app was never field tested and precinct Captains weren't given adequate training to use it.

So Caucuses come around and...app is having issues, precinct Captains don't know how to use it properly anyway, and since they weren't expecting to field a ton of phone calls for reporting, people are struggling to get through to the party leadership.

[The Archregimancy]

"I am not a member of an organised political party. I am a Democrat"; rarely can the Will Rogers quote have seemed more appropriate.


Anyway, some quick thoughts from Cairo from someone who has no strong feelings about any of the candidates...


1) There's no reason to put much credence in the various conspiracy theories being put forward by both the right and the left; simple incompetence - in this case exacerbated by rushed and poorly implemented technology - is by far and away the best explanation for the Iowa fiasco.

2) Even if we don't know the official vote and delegate counts, the various campaigns will have a very good idea of how well they did in the delegate count via their various precinct managers, and we also have partial delegate count results on the ground announced by frustrated individual precinct managers. On this basis, we can judge from candidate speeches and statements how well the various candidates think they did. Sanders and Buttigieg have done very well in delegate counts (which is not, of course, the same thing as actual votes). Warren did well enough to claim a share of victory. Klobuchar is cautiously optimistic that she has enough delegates to continue. Biden underperformed badly.

3) Buttigieg is likely hurt the most by the 'quality control' fiasco since he's almost certainly relying on strong Iowa results to give him a path to viability; he needs a strong result in a friendly Midwestern state to overcome his polling weaknesses in subsequent states and to give him some momentum and name recognition. Likewise Klobuchar to some extent, but she wasn't burdened by the same weight of expectations.

4) Sanders, Warren, and Biden would welcome a good Iowa result, but have paths forward regardless of what happens, or how the results are eventually announced; Sanders and Biden supporters will likely complain the most, though.

5) Will US political organisations and electoral authorities please stop using digital methods to record and transmit vote results? The rest of the world would be very grateful, thank you.