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2020 US General Election Thread IV: The Battle Begins

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Who do you think will win South Carolina?

Sanders
27
59%
Warren
0
No votes
Biden
18
39%
Buttigieg
0
No votes
Klobuchar
1
2%
Steyer
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 46

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Pasong Tirad
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Postby Pasong Tirad » Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:51 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Pasong Tirad wrote:That would be the ideal scenario if the Democrats want to save their party from being ripped apart, especially if the candidate with the most delegates on the first round is Bernie. It would fuel the resentment against the party.

I would think they would go with whomever has the most delegates.

You would think that, wouldn't you?

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Neu California
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Postby Neu California » Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:56 pm

For those wondering how the Iowa caucuses work (and why they're first) the BBC has a good primer

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51299245
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USS Monitor
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Postby USS Monitor » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:02 pm

Gormwood wrote:
Vassenor wrote:Remember, failing to ordain Bernie as the winner before the primaries even start is proof of corruption.

And all the people who howled about Clinton being coronated in 2016 are now cricket chirps.


Yeah, that's one of the reasons why I am not feeling the Bern this time around.

And it isn't just his supporters. At the first debate you could tell Bernie came in expecting a coronation. He was visibly annoyed that he had to share the stage and the speaking time with so many other candidates.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:07 pm

USS Monitor wrote:
Gormwood wrote:And all the people who howled about Clinton being coronated in 2016 are now cricket chirps.


Yeah, that's one of the reasons why I am not feeling the Bern this time around.

And it isn't just his supporters. At the first debate you could tell Bernie came in expecting a coronation. He was visibly annoyed that he had to share the stage and the speaking time with so many other candidates.

Hence why I dont think he's going to get the nomination. But I could be wrong

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Aureumterra
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Postby Aureumterra » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:09 pm

USS Monitor wrote:
Gormwood wrote:And all the people who howled about Clinton being coronated in 2016 are now cricket chirps.


Yeah, that's one of the reasons why I am not feeling the Bern this time around.

And it isn't just his supporters. At the first debate you could tell Bernie came in expecting a coronation. He was visibly annoyed that he had to share the stage and the speaking time with so many other candidates.

The populism might’ve gotten to his head
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:12 pm

Aureumterra wrote:
USS Monitor wrote:
Yeah, that's one of the reasons why I am not feeling the Bern this time around.

And it isn't just his supporters. At the first debate you could tell Bernie came in expecting a coronation. He was visibly annoyed that he had to share the stage and the speaking time with so many other candidates.

The populism might’ve gotten to his head


Sanders has a a hard ceiling and simply isn't popular with large sections of the party. I dont see him winning in California for example.

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South Odreria 2
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Postby South Odreria 2 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:19 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Aureumterra wrote:The populism might’ve gotten to his head


Sanders has a a hard ceiling and simply isn't popular with large sections of the party. I dont see him winning in California for example.

What is this hard ceiling? Because it used to supposedly be the mid-teens but now he's in the early to mid twenties.

USS Monitor wrote:And it isn't just his supporters. At the first debate you could tell Bernie came in expecting a coronation. He was visibly annoyed that he had to share the stage and the speaking time with so many other candidates.

I think he wasn't the only one annoyed by the number of candidates? Though you are right that he took his status for granted at times.
Last edited by South Odreria 2 on Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Pasong Tirad
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Democratic Socialists

Postby Pasong Tirad » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:26 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Aureumterra wrote:The populism might’ve gotten to his head


Sanders has a a hard ceiling and simply isn't popular with large sections of the party. I dont see him winning in California for example.

Sanders is leading in California according to polls. He leads against his contenders in all age groups except for 65+ and he leads among non-white voters.

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Cannot think of a name
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Cannot think of a name » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:34 pm

Pasong Tirad wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
Sanders has a a hard ceiling and simply isn't popular with large sections of the party. I dont see him winning in California for example.

Sanders is leading in California according to polls. He leads against his contenders in all age groups except for 65+ and he leads among non-white voters.

If he's ahead by super Tuesday California could very well end up selecting Bernie and making him the candidate to beat. But we're not use to mattering, so polling it a little weird for us, we either vote for whoever is ahead or wank our vote because it doesn't matter. We were so late in the process for years that as a Californian it's hard for me to process having a voice in the primary, it's always felt like "Alright, I guess a few small states with populations lower than Los Angeles will sort it out and we'll stamp it or something." I haven't ever belonged to a major party because why? Vote in the primary? Who the fuck cares?

This is anecdotal, maybe I'm wrong. I don't even know what to look up...someone doing a survey of Californians feelings about primaries in general? Who knows. I should be working...
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Pasong Tirad
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Democratic Socialists

Postby Pasong Tirad » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:35 pm

Cannot think of a name wrote:
Pasong Tirad wrote:Sanders is leading in California according to polls. He leads against his contenders in all age groups except for 65+ and he leads among non-white voters.

If he's ahead by super Tuesday California could very well end up selecting Bernie and making him the candidate to beat. But we're not use to mattering, so polling it a little weird for us, we either vote for whoever is ahead or wank our vote because it doesn't matter. We were so late in the process for years that as a Californian it's hard for me to process having a voice in the primary, it's always felt like "Alright, I guess a few small states with populations lower than Los Angeles will sort it out and we'll stamp it or something." I haven't ever belonged to a major party because why? Vote in the primary? Who the fuck cares?

This is anecdotal, maybe I'm wrong. I don't even know what to look up...someone doing a survey of Californians feelings about primaries in general? Who knows. I should be working...

Big mood. I should be working too.

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Cannot think of a name
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Posts: 45100
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Cannot think of a name » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:38 pm

Pasong Tirad wrote:
Cannot think of a name wrote:If he's ahead by super Tuesday California could very well end up selecting Bernie and making him the candidate to beat. But we're not use to mattering, so polling it a little weird for us, we either vote for whoever is ahead or wank our vote because it doesn't matter. We were so late in the process for years that as a Californian it's hard for me to process having a voice in the primary, it's always felt like "Alright, I guess a few small states with populations lower than Los Angeles will sort it out and we'll stamp it or something." I haven't ever belonged to a major party because why? Vote in the primary? Who the fuck cares?

This is anecdotal, maybe I'm wrong. I don't even know what to look up...someone doing a survey of Californians feelings about primaries in general? Who knows. I should be working...

Big mood. I should be working too.

The trap of self employment/working from home. My immediate supervisor is a pushover.
"...I have been gravely disappointed with the white moderate. I have almost reached the regrettable conclusion that the Negro's great stumbling block in the stride toward freedom is not the White Citizen's Council-er or the Ku Klux Klanner, but the white moderate who is more devoted to "order" than to justice; who prefers a negative peace which is the absence of tension to a positive peace which is the presence of justice; who constantly says "I agree with you in the goal you seek, but I can't agree with your methods of direct action;" who paternalistically feels he can set the timetable for another man's freedom; who lives by the myth of time and who constantly advises the Negro to wait until a "more convenient season." -MLK Jr.

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South Odreria 2
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Ex-Nation

Postby South Odreria 2 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:42 pm

Cannot think of a name wrote:
Pasong Tirad wrote:Big mood. I should be working too.

The trap of self employment/working from home. My immediate supervisor is a pushover.

I ought to take another shot at physically separating myself from the home computer.
Valrifell wrote:
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San Lumen
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Posts: 87269
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Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:51 pm

Cannot think of a name wrote:
Pasong Tirad wrote:Sanders is leading in California according to polls. He leads against his contenders in all age groups except for 65+ and he leads among non-white voters.

If he's ahead by super Tuesday California could very well end up selecting Bernie and making him the candidate to beat. But we're not use to mattering, so polling it a little weird for us, we either vote for whoever is ahead or wank our vote because it doesn't matter. We were so late in the process for years that as a Californian it's hard for me to process having a voice in the primary, it's always felt like "Alright, I guess a few small states with populations lower than Los Angeles will sort it out and we'll stamp it or something." I haven't ever belonged to a major party because why? Vote in the primary? Who the fuck cares?

This is anecdotal, maybe I'm wrong. I don't even know what to look up...someone doing a survey of Californians feelings about primaries in general? Who knows. I should be working...

I don’t think he’s electable. There is a reason republicans want him as the nominee. He’d be the easiest to beat and wipe out all the gains of 2018 but democrats seem keen on shooting themselves in the foot

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Pasong Tirad
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Democratic Socialists

Postby Pasong Tirad » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:54 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Cannot think of a name wrote:If he's ahead by super Tuesday California could very well end up selecting Bernie and making him the candidate to beat. But we're not use to mattering, so polling it a little weird for us, we either vote for whoever is ahead or wank our vote because it doesn't matter. We were so late in the process for years that as a Californian it's hard for me to process having a voice in the primary, it's always felt like "Alright, I guess a few small states with populations lower than Los Angeles will sort it out and we'll stamp it or something." I haven't ever belonged to a major party because why? Vote in the primary? Who the fuck cares?

This is anecdotal, maybe I'm wrong. I don't even know what to look up...someone doing a survey of Californians feelings about primaries in general? Who knows. I should be working...

I don’t think he’s electable. There is a reason republicans want him as the nominee. He’d be the easiest to beat and wipe out all the gains of 2018 but democrats seem keen on shooting themselves in the foot

You seem really keen to repeat yourself without providing evidence.

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:59 pm

Pasong Tirad wrote:
San Lumen wrote:I don’t think he’s electable. There is a reason republicans want him as the nominee. He’d be the easiest to beat and wipe out all the gains of 2018 but democrats seem keen on shooting themselves in the foot



You seem really keen to repeat yourself without providing evidence.


If he gets the nomination don’t whine and complain when he loses in a landslide but then it won’t matter because the republic as we know it will be over and republicans will do all they can to ensure they never lose another election and thus country will be democracy in name only
Last edited by San Lumen on Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Gormwood
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Postby Gormwood » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:02 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Pasong Tirad wrote:

You seem really keen to repeat yourself without providing evidence.


If he gets the nomination don’t whine and complain when he loses in a landslide but then it won’t matter because the republic as we know it will be over and republicans will do all they can to ensure they never lose another election and thus country will be democracy in name only

The Republicans are hopped on their own meme that literally anyone the Democrats nominate will give Trump a landslide victory.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:03 pm

Gormwood wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
If he gets the nomination don’t whine and complain when he loses in a landslide but then it won’t matter because the republic as we know it will be over and republicans will do all they can to ensure they never lose another election and thus country will be democracy in name only

The Republicans are hopped on their own meme that literally anyone the Democrats nominate will give Trump a landslide victory.

Bernie would lose in a landslide I guarantee it but I’m afraid I’ll have to say I’ll told you so but after that it won’t matter. Democracy will be over and this planet will die

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Pasong Tirad
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Postby Pasong Tirad » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:04 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Pasong Tirad wrote:

You seem really keen to repeat yourself without providing evidence.


If he gets the nomination don’t whine and complain when he loses in a landslide but then it won’t matter because the republic as we know it will be over and republicans will do all they can to ensure they never lose another election and thus country will be democracy in name only

I'm still not seeing any evidence in that whole paragraph.

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South Odreria 2
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Postby South Odreria 2 » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:05 pm

San Lumen wrote:Bernie would lose in a landslide I guarantee it but I’m afraid I’ll have to say I’ll told you so but after that it won’t matter. Democracy will be over and this planet will die

Yes that's what we want we work for Vladimir Putin.
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USS Monitor
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby USS Monitor » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:05 pm

South Odreria 2 wrote:
USS Monitor wrote:And it isn't just his supporters. At the first debate you could tell Bernie came in expecting a coronation. He was visibly annoyed that he had to share the stage and the speaking time with so many other candidates.

I think he wasn't the only one annoyed by the number of candidates? Though you are right that he took his status for granted at times.


Other people might have been privately annoyed at the number of candidates, but Bernie in particular was a bad sport about it, and it really goes against the messages he was putting out in 2016 about being willing to debate any time, anywhere.

Of course, Biden had his own issues with taking his support for granted and not being on top of his game to convince undecided voters. He just went the muddled and sloppy route while Bernie went the condescending route.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:05 pm

Pasong Tirad wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
If he gets the nomination don’t whine and complain when he loses in a landslide but then it won’t matter because the republic as we know it will be over and republicans will do all they can to ensure they never lose another election and thus country will be democracy in name only

I'm still not seeing any evidence in that whole paragraph.

I am a political historian and I am telling you he’s unelectable and will be a disaster down ballot. But what do i know I only studied politics?

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:06 pm

South Odreria 2 wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Bernie would lose in a landslide I guarantee it but I’m afraid I’ll have to say I’ll told you so but after that it won’t matter. Democracy will be over and this planet will die

Yes that's what we want we work for Vladimir Putin.

So how about we don’t give him what he wants?

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Pasong Tirad
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Democratic Socialists

Postby Pasong Tirad » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:08 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Pasong Tirad wrote:I'm still not seeing any evidence in that whole paragraph.

I am a political historian and I am telling you he’s unelectable and will be a disaster down ballot. But what do i know I only studied politics?

Then as a political historian you shouldn't have any problem posting some citations to your "guarantee" that Bernie will lose in a landslide, despite the fact that head-to-head polls show him beating Trump.

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Gormwood
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Ex-Nation

Postby Gormwood » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:09 pm

San Lumen wrote:
South Odreria 2 wrote:Yes that's what we want we work for Vladimir Putin.

So how about we don’t give him what he wants?

What was that about voting no matter who gets nominated? If Sanders does win there's going to be a motivation boost in his base, unlike Ron Paul's fanboys.
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Cisairse
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Postby Cisairse » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:09 pm

Cannot think of a name wrote:Iowa is in four days. It was kinda feeling like votes would never be cast and we'd just be locked in some sort of eternity where we argue over who our favorite Big Brother housemate is our favorite.

Of course once it's winnowed down some jackass will start a bracket for 2024, so I guess I'll continue to feel that way.


John Kerry will win the presidency in 2024.

San Lumen wrote:
USS Monitor wrote:
Yeah, that's one of the reasons why I am not feeling the Bern this time around.

And it isn't just his supporters. At the first debate you could tell Bernie came in expecting a coronation. He was visibly annoyed that he had to share the stage and the speaking time with so many other candidates.

Hence why I dont think he's going to get the nomination. But I could be wrong


I mean if Bernie's main attitude is that he should have won in 2016, Bidens's main attitude is that he would have won in 2016 and he's just collecting a raincheck.

Both the frontrunners have carried an attitude that they 'deserve' to win. But here's a really hot take: If you don't have that attitude, you will appear weak and people will not get enthusiastic about you. This is what is happening to Amy.
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