Maccian wrote:What's the chance that after Queen Elizabeth II dies, that the monarchy will be abolished? I think it would only happen if there was a huge controversy surrounding a member or all of the royal family
Close to non-existent in the UK as currently constituted.
I think it likely a 50/50 chance that the Australian monarchy will be abolished in the decade following the Queen's death, though. Some of the smaller Commonwealth Realms may also follow, though I think the Canadian and New Zealand monarchies are broadly safe.
It looks increasingly likely that Prince Andrew has been a very, very naughty boy; to the extent that a formal criminal investigation would likely have been launched at this point if he wasn't the Queen's son. Certainly he shouldn't be travelling to the United States in the near future. Andrew's alleged behaviour is clearly a problem, but he's fortunately nowhere near the crown; that the [currently] eighth in line for the throne is an irresponsible cockwomble who has allegedly been encouraged to fuck underage girls by criminal acquaintances is not inherently an argument against the institution of constitutional monarchy (though it could easily be used as an argument against privilege without responsibility). Many large extended families have an idiot in their ranks; so long as it's only Andrew, there's not really an issue.
That said, there is a potential issue when the irresponsible cockwomble is first in line to the throne. We seem to have dodged a bullet with Prince Albert Victor, and had an ever closer shave with Edward VIII; though sometimes the irresponsible cockwomble can surprise once actually on the throne (see Edward VII). George V, George VI, and Elizabeth II have, however, set a firm model for what the UK expects from its harmless constitutional monarchs over the last century, and so long as Charles III/George VII and William IV follow a similar model once on the throne, we won't have a problem.