The 2019-2020 Coronavirus outbreak thread

[The Fifth Federation]

WHO has just declared a Public Health emergency of international concern, according to this article;
https://tinyurl.com/uwns6z5

Anyways, China totals pass 8,000 as of today, which is stated by:
China reported 1,737 more cases, along with 38 more deaths, raising its outbreak total to 7,711 cases, 170 of them fatal, according to the latest update from the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC). The number of severe illnesses climbed to 1,370.

Article parts in report more cases in other nations than China.

The Philippines first case is a 38-year-old woman from China, the WHO Western Pacific regional office (WHO WPRO) said on Twitter today. An attached press release from the country's health ministry said the woman arrived from Wuhan via Hong Kong on Jan 21.

South Korea's latest patients include a 32-year-old Korean man who got sick after returning from Wuhan and a 56-year-old man who is a contact of the country's third imported 2019-nCoV case-patient, signaling the country's' first secondary infection, according to health ministry sources quoted in a report from a medical publication translated and posted by FluTrackers, an infectious disease news message board.

Other countries reporting more cases include:
Vietnam confirmed three more cases involving travelers from Wuhan, according to the Star, an English-language newspaper based in Malaysia, which cited the country's health ministry.

Japan announced three cases among 206 citizens evacuated from Wuhan. One patient is a man in his 50s who had symptoms, and the others—a man in his 40s and a woman in her 50s—are asymptomatic.

Australia reported one more case in Queensland, involving a 42-year-old Chinese woman from Wuhan who is part of the same tour group from which the state's first case was reported, according to a statement from the Queensland government.

Hong Kong has two new patients, one a 37-year-old daughter of a Wuhan couple announced yesterday as confirmed cases, and the other a 75-year-old man who recently spent time in Guangdong province, according to a statement from Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP).

[The Fifth Federation]

Anyways here's a statement by the Emergency committee of WHO:

''The Committee believes that it is still possible to interrupt virus spread, provided that countries put in place strong measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts, and promote social distancing measures commensurate with the risk. It is important to note that as the situation continues to evolve, so will the strategic goals and measures to prevent and reduce spread of the infection. The Committee agreed that the outbreak now meets the criteria for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern and proposed the following advice to be issued as Temporary Recommendations.''

Full Statement: https://tinyurl.com/uwns6z5

[Totally Not OEP]

Which is why we should be prepared to shutdown the borders and issue martial law

Please... At present, it appears to be a problem contained to China. There's no need to freak out yet. Cutting direct air links to China seems sufficient.

I can't see what martial law would get us, even ignoring the legal problems of declaring it. State and local health departments already have the power to quarantine people.

Except we know it's not a problem contained in China, as evidenced by the WHO finally declaring it a Global Emergency and confirmed person to person transmission in Germany, Thailand and the United States among other countries.

[Catburg]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lazzaroasis/status/1222893130019553286/photo/1

Some patients who can’t get treatment try to deliberately infect random people by spitting.

What the actual fuck.

Do you read Chinese? If you do the meaning is obvious.

[Totally Not OEP]

That is not looking good.
Unless it plateaus soon it is not good at all.

It'll probably plateau eventually, maybe not as soon as SARS though.

All diseases technically plateau eventually, it's why the Black Death or Smallpox failed to wipe us out. The problem herein is that, with its R-value and fatality rate, in a worst case scenario we're looking at 100 million deaths or so before it abates.

[The Fifth Federation]

In terms of the prevention and definition of the new Coronavirus, WHO states:

Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans.
Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people. Detailed investigations found that SARS-CoV was transmitted from civet cats to humans and MERS-CoV from dromedary camels to humans. Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans.
Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death.
Standard recommendations to prevent infection spread include regular hand washing, covering mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, thoroughly cooking meat and eggs. Avoid close contact with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness such as coughing and sneezing.

[Northwest Slobovia]

Please... At present, it appears to be a problem contained to China. There's no need to freak out yet. Cutting direct air links to China seems sufficient.

I can't see what martial law would get us, even ignoring the legal problems of declaring it. State and local health departments already have the power to quarantine people.

Hence why I said be prepared to. Which means start preparing for the worst case scenario.

So we should just start preparing to dig mass graves now, because "the worst case scenario" leaves everybody dead regardless of what we do? I think you'll have to agree that is possible that this virus is already beyond our control. Human-to-human transmission was reported in Chicago, and by now, it's possible people exposed to the virus are already scattered around the US. But it's frankly not likely.

Since the CDC already has a pandemic playbook, I'm gonna let them run the show, rather than thinking about every half-cocked idea responding to one. (Yes, it's a flu playbook. Cross out "flu", write in "Wuhan coronavirus", and run it as is. It's been a while since I read anything about it, but IIRC it's a detailed plan based on solid science.)

What would preparing to close the border amount to, anyway? Ditto for preparing for martial law?

(Also see: "the worse case scenario" Sorry, too good and too timely to pass up.)

[Northwest Slobovia]

Please... At present, it appears to be a problem contained to China. There's no need to freak out yet. Cutting direct air links to China seems sufficient.

I can't see what martial law would get us, even ignoring the legal problems of declaring it. State and local health departments already have the power to quarantine people.

Except we know it's not a problem contained in China, as evidenced by the WHO finally declaring it a Global Emergency and confirmed person to person transmission in Germany, Thailand and the United States among other countries.

...and, so far, containment in those places, not epidemics like we're seeing in China.

[Chessmistress]

I suspect that the progression is faster for political reasons: the PRC had been too slow at the beginning, they then had hide it for a while, and they're now piling the old numbers together with the new numbers.
By this way the people sensation will be:
The government did react very fast but the virus was terrible.

That's a view point i hadn't considered, most harped about china hiding the numbers to cover their failure(which they likely did anyway), but as most of the cases are in their care they could also boost the numbers to later claim accomplishement or just to create panic in everyone else.
The curve for 2019-nCoV has been way more smooth than older cases.
One thing going against that idea, is that the number of infected outside china is following a similar exponential curve, even if still limited to 112 cases.

Though, the progression has been stalling for the last 3 days, the most immediate answer is that they have reached their operative limit in Wuhan to actually test every new case (both lack of medical supplies, like text kits, and lack of available doctors to actually do the tests)
Their container hospital is coming along quick btw.

According the link you provided the progression of the virus outside China is much flatter

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

The above seems to confirm that Chinese government is piling old cases with new cases.

They have a lot of backlog to pile, if the number of 43,590 cases in Wuhan (last Saturday!) is real:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hea ... perts-call

[The Greater Ohio Valley]

It'll probably plateau eventually, maybe not as soon as SARS though.

All diseases technically plateau eventually, it's why the Black Death or Smallpox failed to wipe us out. The problem herein is that, with its R-value and fatality rate, in a worst case scenario we're looking at 100 million deaths or so before it abates.

The worst case scenario for every virus is tens of millions dead, doesn't mean that that's the guaranteed or most likely outcome here.

[The Fifth Federation]

Virginia Dept. of health has confirmed a possible case in Virginia. https://tinyurl.com/uaayjnh

Location: The Virginia Department of Health has confirmed another possible case of the novel coronavirus in the northern Virginia region Thursday.

[Lost Memories]

That's a view point i hadn't considered, most harped about china hiding the numbers to cover their failure(which they likely did anyway), but as most of the cases are in their care they could also boost the numbers to later claim accomplishement or just to create panic in everyone else.
The curve for 2019-nCoV has been way more smooth than older cases.
One thing going against that idea, is that the number of infected outside china is following a similar exponential curve, even if still limited to 112 cases.

Though, the progression has been stalling for the last 3 days, the most immediate answer is that they have reached their operative limit in Wuhan to actually test every new case (both lack of medical supplies, like text kits, and lack of available doctors to actually do the tests)
Their container hospital is coming along quick btw.

According the link you provided the progression of the virus outside China is much flatter

It isn't flat, you have to disable the curve for china to be able to see it well. (you also need to ignore the last point of the curve, as the data is incomplete, the site updates twice each day)

The total infected outside china have been doubling every 2 days(more or less), a rule followed also by the infected inside china.

Also yeah, if you look at the full data it becomes more clear, this site gives a better overview about missing infected reports.
China: 9,692 infected, 15,238 suspected, 1,527 serious conditions, 213 dead, 171 recovered.

They still have over 15k suspected cases to verify.

[The Fifth Federation]

Now we have a issue with the stocks. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/us-futures-point-to-sharply-lower-open-on-wall-street.html According to CNBC Markets:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 124 points, or 0.4%. At its low of the day, the Dow was down 244 points. The S&P 500 ended the day up 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite also gained 0.3%.


Another statement: Stocks have been mired all week by fears over the coronavirus and its toll on the global economy. The S&P 500 and Dow are both down about 0.4% for the week while the Nasdaq has lost 0.2%. The Dow and S&P 500 were on pace for their first back-to-back weekly declines since a three-week slide that ended in early October. The Nasdaq has not logged in consecutive weekly declines since late September.

[The Greater Ohio Valley]

You hope it will plateau

And you don't?

This thing is going to be worse than both of those.

I'd like to borrow your crystal ball, I have a few bets to place and lottery tickets to purchase.

The rate of infected is already well past where SARS was at this point.

Okay, doesn't mean we're deep in the stages of Black Death Part II, Half the Human Population Dead Again Boogaloo.

If you want to continue to stick your head in the ground and act like everything is fine go right on.

I don't understand why my lack of panic and doomer apocalyptic mentality is so upsetting to you. Like I said earlier, if you don't like the fact that I'm not losing my shit over this right now then you don't have to engage with me over it.

[The Fifth Federation]

Also, U.S.A Dept. of state issued a China Travel Advisory. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/china-travel-advisory.html

A pull-out from the alert: In an effort to contain the novel coronavirus, the Chinese authorities have suspended air, road, and rail travel in the area around Wuhan and placed restrictions on travel and other activities throughout the country. On January 23, 2020, the Department of State ordered the departure of all non-emergency U.S. personnel and their family members from Wuhan. The U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Hubei province.

[The Fifth Federation]

Okay, doesn't mean we're deep in the stages of Black Death Part II, Half the Human Population Dead Again Boogaloo.

It's worse than the Black death.

[Rojava Free State]

You hope it will plateau

And you don't?

This thing is going to be worse than both of those.

I'd like to borrow your crystal ball, I have a few bets to place and lottery tickets to purchase.

The rate of infected is already well past where SARS was at this point.

Okay, doesn't mean we're deep in the stages of Black Death Part II, Half the Human Population Dead Again Boogaloo.

If you want to continue to stick your head in the ground and act like everything is fine go right on.

I don't understand why my lack of panic and doomer apocalyptic mentality is so upsetting to you. Like I said earlier, if you don't like the fact that I'm not losing my shit over this right now then you don't have to engage with me over it.

You better be right, because if you aren't then we are all gonna die

[Rojava Free State]

Okay, doesn't mean we're deep in the stages of Black Death Part II, Half the Human Population Dead Again Boogaloo.

It's worse than the Black death.

bruh

[Chessmistress]

According the link you provided the progression of the virus outside China is much flatter

It isn't flat, you have to disable the curve for china to be able to see it well. (you also need to ignore the last point of the curve, as the data is incomplete, the site updates twice each day)

The total infected outside china have been doubling every 2 days(more or less), a rule followed also by the infected inside china.

Also yeah, if you look at the full data it becomes more clear, this site gives a better overview about missing infected reports.
China: 9,692 infected, 15,238 suspected, 1,527 serious conditions, 213 dead, 171 recovered.

They still have over 15k suspected cases to verify.

I see, but still the progression is quite different:
26 Jan-29 Jan: rises from 57 to 105: 1.84 times
While in China 26-29 Jan: rises from 2.7k to 7.7k, that's 2.85 times

[The Greater Ohio Valley]

Okay, doesn't mean we're deep in the stages of Black Death Part II, Half the Human Population Dead Again Boogaloo.

It's worse than the Black death.

*screams in necrotic pustules*

[The Greater Ohio Valley]

And you don't?


I'd like to borrow your crystal ball, I have a few bets to place and lottery tickets to purchase.


Okay, doesn't mean we're deep in the stages of Black Death Part II, Half the Human Population Dead Again Boogaloo.


I don't understand why my lack of panic and doomer apocalyptic mentality is so upsetting to you. Like I said earlier, if you don't like the fact that I'm not losing my shit over this right now then you don't have to engage with me over it.

You better be right, because if you aren't then we are all gonna die

Maybe we're already dead.

[Lord Dominator]

Okay, doesn't mean we're deep in the stages of Black Death Part II, Half the Human Population Dead Again Boogaloo.

It's worse than the Black death.

Bold claim, what's your basis?

[The Fifth Federation]

It's worse than the Black death.

Bold claim, what's your basis?

Well, it's eating up a large country- China and other nations with cases, it's global generally.

As well it's a influenza and virus, spread by human-to-human and food contract.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-31-20-intl-hnk/index.html

[The Greater Ohio Valley]

Bold claim, what's your basis?

Well, it's eating up a large country- China and other nations with cases, it's global generally.

As well it's a influenza and virus, spread by human-to-human and food contract.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-31-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Yet the Black Death had a morality rate well over 50% and wiped out half a continent in a span of 4-5 years.

[Samudera Darussalam]

Well, it's eating up a large country- China and other nations with cases, it's global generally.

As well it's a influenza and virus, spread by human-to-human and food contract.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-31-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Yet the Black Death had a morality rate well over 50% and wiped out half a continent in a span of 4-5 years.

Not to mention that....the Black Death also hit countries outside Europe. Ibn Battuta's journals are a testament to that.