The 2019-2020 Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Lord Dominator]

This has already surpassed SARS and that caused $50 Billion in damage. Important to note that back then tourism and consumption weren't as large a percent of the Chinese GDP while, likewise, China itself was only 3% of Global GDP and now it is 16%. This isn't even getting into the effects of a prolonged manufacturing slump...

It will hurt them, but their economic numbers are already BS.
They will cover it up, and the greedy governments and corporations of the world will keep them afloat.

Loss of manufacturing supply chains can't exactly be covered up, which is the danger for everyone else.

[Novus America]

It will hurt them, but their economic numbers are already BS.
They will cover it up, and the greedy governments and corporations of the world will keep them afloat.

Loss of manufacturing supply chains can't exactly be covered up, which is the danger for everyone else.

Well true, but we deserve it.
We are all complicit in their crimes and there always is a price to be paid.

[Catburg]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lazzaroasis/ ... 86/photo/1

Some patients who can’t get treatment try to deliberately infect random people by spitting.

[Lord Dominator]

Loss of manufacturing supply chains can't exactly be covered up, which is the danger for everyone else.

Well true, but we deserve it.
We are all complicit in their crimes and there always is a price to be paid.

I'd not go quite that far, but generally agreed.

[Red Roja]

Well, it is now nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of infection and 214 deaths from the virus. Many are saying that the real numbers are several times higher than what the Chinese government is reporting. A few days ago a video emerged of a "whisterblower" nurse in China claiming that there are really 90,000 victims.

[Genivaria]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lazzaroasis/status/1222893130019553286/photo/1

Some patients who can’t get treatment try to deliberately infect random people by spitting.

What the actual fuck.

[Novus America]

Well, it is now nearly 10,000 confirmed cases of infection and 214 deaths from the virus. Many are saying that the real numbers are several times higher than what the Chinese government is reporting. A few days ago a video emerged of a "whisterblower" nurse in China claiming that there are really 90,000 victims.

And they lie about other numbers to.
We cannot know, and probably never will know the whole story.

[Albrenia]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lazzaroasis/status/1222893130019553286/photo/1

Some patients who can’t get treatment try to deliberately infect random people by spitting.

Well that's equal parts immoral, disgusting and counter-productive.

[Red Roja]

https://mobile.twitter.com/lazzaroasis/status/1222893130019553286/photo/1

Some patients who can’t get treatment try to deliberately infect random people by spitting.

I can't read Chinese, but I did see a video that seems to show someone spitting at a random bicycle rider. If the spitter does have the virus and this is more than just one isolated incident with one maniac, then what the actual fuck?

[Lost Memories]

This new virus has currently surpassed both SARS (2003) and the swine flu (2009) in terms of progression.

graph from 2 days ago, but it shows better the curve of SARS

SARS eventually ended with a plateau, with 8422 infected and 774 deaths.
While the swine flu (or H1N1) grew to infect more than 200000 (estimated 11–21% of the global population in 2009) and 14,286 dead at 2010.

[Chessmistress]

So the PRC government will be aware about all the flirts of my teenage son?
You know, the phone is for him, it's a gaming phone...

Well sure, just because they have his data might not mean they care.
But say he is gaming with someone in Hong Kong, they mention politics...

Maybe you do not care you bought him spyware by that does not change what it is.
If you are okay with the spying then that is your decision but you should still be aware.

People in Hong Kong should be aware that they're under control by the PRC, so it's unlikely that they will talk about politics with foreigners during online gaming.

Such kind of spyware are dangerous for corporations and international businesses because they collect important informations, and for politicians and the military for obiouvs reasons. Apart from that, it's extremely unlikely that the PRC government care about what individual foreigners living abroad say about them, at best they could use such informations as aggregate to understand the reactions and to plan strategies to improve their image abroad.
I bought some things online from China, and the ads I receive from them are much more random and much less in line with my personal tastes than the ads I receive from the westerners, so I exclude a great capacity to profile individuals.
Even their social credit system seems a bit crude: it is done with too much fuss and sanctions behaviors absolutely not dangerous either for dictatorship or for society in general, some even totally irrelevant. When I have read the full set of the rules I immediately had a feeling of dealing with amateur bureaucrats: "smells as people producing tons of paper just only to cover their ass" was my sensation.
I suspect that you're overestimating what they can actually achieve.

[Red Roja]

This new virus has currently surpassed both SARS (2003) and the swine flu (2009) in terms of progression.

(Image)

(Image)

graph from 2 days ago, but it shows better the curve of SARS
(Image)

SARS eventually ended with a plateau, with 8422 infected and 774 deaths.
While the swine flu (or H1N1) grew to infect more than 200000 (estimated 11–21% of the global population in 2009) and 151,000–579,000 dead.

200,000 is 11-21% of the world's population?

[Lost Memories]

200,000 is 11-21% of the world's population?

"more than" is an absolute number? I was referencing the graphs, which have a max scale over 100 days of 200,000.

[Novus America]

This new virus has currently surpassed both SARS (2003) and the swine flu (2009) in terms of progression.

(Image)

(Image)

graph from 2 days ago, but it shows better the curve of SARS
(Image)

SARS eventually ended with a plateau, with 8422 infected and 774 deaths.
While the swine flu (or H1N1) grew to infect more than 200000 (estimated 11–21% of the global population in 2009) and 14,286 dead at 2010.

That is not looking good.
Unless it plateaus soon it is not good at all.

[Chessmistress]

I suspect that the progression is faster for political reasons: the PRC had been too slow at the beginning, they then had hide it for a while, and they're now piling the old numbers together with the new numbers.
By this way the people sensation will be:
The government did react very fast but the virus was terrible.

If I'm right, the curve will begin to drop earlier than expected, it'll drop quickly, and they'll claim a great victory.

I indeed noticed that yesterday the peak was due in 10-12 days, now it's 7-10 days.

[Red Roja]

200,000 is 11-21% of the world's population?

"more than" is an absolute number? I was referencing the graphs, which have a max scale over 100 days of 200,000.

Then why even mention the 200,000? 11-21% of the world's population would at the minimum be over 700,000,000 people.

[Thermodolia]

This new virus has currently surpassed both SARS (2003) and the swine flu (2009) in terms of progression.

(Image)

(Image)

graph from 2 days ago, but it shows better the curve of SARS
(Image)

SARS eventually ended with a plateau, with 8422 infected and 774 deaths.
While the swine flu (or H1N1) grew to infect more than 200000 (estimated 11–21% of the global population in 2009) and 14,286 dead at 2010.

That is not looking good.
Unless it plateaus soon it is not good at all.

Which is why we should be prepared to shutdown the borders and issue martial law

[The Greater Ohio Valley]

That is not looking good.
Unless it plateaus soon it is not good at all.

Which is why we should be prepared to shutdown the borders and issue martial law

If we didn't shut down the borders and issue martial law during swine flu or SARS then we more than likely won't now. Those are literally options of last resort, particularly martial law.

[The Greater Ohio Valley]

This new virus has currently surpassed both SARS (2003) and the swine flu (2009) in terms of progression.

(Image)

(Image)

graph from 2 days ago, but it shows better the curve of SARS
(Image)

SARS eventually ended with a plateau, with 8422 infected and 774 deaths.
While the swine flu (or H1N1) grew to infect more than 200000 (estimated 11–21% of the global population in 2009) and 14,286 dead at 2010.

That is not looking good.
Unless it plateaus soon it is not good at all.

It'll probably plateau eventually, maybe not as soon as SARS though.

[Northwest Slobovia]

That is not looking good.
Unless it plateaus soon it is not good at all.

Which is why we should be prepared to shutdown the borders and issue martial law

Please... At present, it appears to be a problem contained to China. There's no need to freak out yet. Cutting direct air links to China seems sufficient.

I can't see what martial law would get us, even ignoring the legal problems of declaring it. State and local health departments already have the power to quarantine people.

[The Fifth Federation]

If you want a good tracking site for the coronavirus, check this. https://tinyurl.com/uwns6z5

[Lost Memories]

I suspect that the progression is faster for political reasons: the PRC had been too slow at the beginning, they then had hide it for a while, and they're now piling the old numbers together with the new numbers.
By this way the people sensation will be:
The government did react very fast but the virus was terrible.

That's a view point i hadn't considered, most harped about china hiding the numbers to cover their failure(which they likely did anyway), but as most of the cases are in their care they could also boost the numbers to later claim accomplishement or just to create panic in everyone else.
The curve for 2019-nCoV has been way more smooth than older cases.
One thing going against that idea, is that the number of infected outside china is following a similar exponential curve, even if still limited to 112 cases.

Though, the progression has been stalling for the last 3 days, the most immediate answer is that they have reached their operative limit in Wuhan to actually test every new case (both lack of medical supplies, like text kits, and lack of available doctors to actually do the tests)
Their container hospital is coming along quick btw.

[Thermodolia]

That is not looking good.
Unless it plateaus soon it is not good at all.

It'll probably plateau eventually, maybe not as soon as SARS though.

You hope it will plateau

[Thermodolia]

Which is why we should be prepared to shutdown the borders and issue martial law

If we didn't shut down the borders and issue martial law during swine flu or SARS then we more than likely won't now. Those are literally options of last resort, particularly martial law.

This thing is going to be worse than both of those.

The rate of infected is already well past where SARS was at this point. If you want to continue to stick your head in the ground and act like everything is fine go right on.

[Thermodolia]

Which is why we should be prepared to shutdown the borders and issue martial law

Please... At present, it appears to be a problem contained to China. There's no need to freak out yet. Cutting direct air links to China seems sufficient.

I can't see what martial law would get us, even ignoring the legal problems of declaring it. State and local health departments already have the power to quarantine people.

Hence why I said be prepared to. Which means start preparing for the worst case scenario.