The 2019-2020 Coronavirus outbreak thread

[LimaUniformNovemberAlpha]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM

So here's serpentza's take on the Coronavirus outbreak. You don't need to watch; you can get the gist of it by just listening to it; but to make a long story short he's attributing the outbreak getting out of control to a combination of China's poor hygiene and China's culture of saving face at the expense of facing reality.

Cultural relativists have blood on their hands. When a "culture" gets people killed, it's time to stop sugar-coating it.

[Infected Mushroom]

Well I just found out that one of the 12 confirmed infected in Hong Kong is literally within walking distance of my home. Like within 15 minutes walking distance.

That’s how close the incident point was.

[The New California Republic]

Well I just found out that one of the 12 confirmed infected in Hong Kong is literally within walking distance of my home. Like within 15 minutes walking distance.

That’s how close the incident point was.

Blame Lam.

[Lost Memories]

A new study from theLancet:

Findings
In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 and that 75815 individuals have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days.
We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461, 113, 98, 111, and 80 infections from Wuhan, respectively. If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.

Interpretation
Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.

So according to them the real number of infected isn't really doubling every 2 days, like seen in the various infection trackers, but slower, every 6 days.
While the reporting in China is moving faster because China has built up a large number of untested and unsuspected cases.

From the trackers the overall number of infected outside china, from the 20th to 30th, follows these multiplicative rates every 2 days:
2 (infected in 22 Jan / infected in 20 Jan, 2 days)
2,3
3,1
2,8
2,3
1,6
1,5
1,6
1,3 (infected in 30 Jan / infected in 28 Jan, 2 days) 2,07 (infected in 30 Jan / infected in 26 Jan, 4 days)
The reported doubling outside china is slowing, it started closer to a doubling every 2 days, moving to doubling after 4 days in the last case on 30th, it must be because most of the reported cases outside china are from travelers from china, and not yet self-sustained spreading.

Thailand should have restricted Chinese nationals a long time ago.

Yeah, wonder what they are waiting.


Btw, it seems the first confirmed cases have been found in Sweden.

Also, India has blocked the exports of protective gears (twitter source, waiting for a more reliable source)

[The New California Republic]

A new study from theLancet:

Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.

Fuck. That's what I was worried about.

[LimaUniformNovemberAlpha]

Also, India has blocked the exports of protective gears (twitter source, waiting for a more reliable source)

Yeah, serpentza mentioned something similar about Taiwan too.

Until now, I would never have thought it was legal to restrict exports.

[Thermodolia]

First two infected tested positive in the UK



"In a twist, China to evacuate Wuhan residents from foreign countries."
This seems to align with their tactic of deporting any infected they find around china into the Hubei region, they are going to focus all their medical resources on Wuhan, and move there any case they find outside Wuhan.

“Singapore and Mongolia will bar entries from China.
Singapore on Friday announced a sweeping ban on Chinese visitors and other foreigners who had been to China in the past 14 days, in an escalation of travel restrictions by the Southeast Asian transportation hub.”
Why have we not done this already? That bothers me. We need to do this asap.

Plus we should probably cancel most non emergency leave and call up reservists for military personnel in medical and NBC specialties, get out hospital ships full crewed (they are mostly crewed by reservists).

I do not into the doomer panic, but these steps should still be taken as a precaution.

Why haven’t we done this? Because there are people who think everything is fine and nothing bad is gonna happen

[Thermodolia]

A new study from theLancet:

Fuck. That's what I was worried about.

And people wonder why I want to effectively shutdown the borders/quarantine/implement martial law

[Valentian Elysium]

Fuck. That's what I was worried about.

And people wonder why I want to effectively shutdown the borders/quarantine/implement martial law

I'm assuming you're in America
But you do realise that as of today, there are only 6 confirmed cases in America?
Not trying to sugarcoat the rest of the world and China, they're having a hard time indeed. So is America.
But martial law, as one poster noted before me, is a last resort, and is far, far, far away from being implemented in the US.
And efforts are already being put to stop the transmission as much as possible. It's not like the coronavirus is planning to go to America in one night en masse.

[Fartsniffage]

[Totally Not OEP]

Person to Person transmission occurring is the opposite of containment, that's why the WHO is making this statement.

Sadly, governments are doing a lot of 'quarantine,' i.e. locking innocent people up for health reasons.

I'm not saying it's sad because it prevents the spread of disease, but because it's a major human rights violation.

Except it's not, and opinions like these are exactly why the notion of Human Rights needs to be thrown into the fucking trash heap with extreme prejudice.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Sadly, governments are doing a lot of 'quarantine,' i.e. locking innocent people up for health reasons.

I'm not saying it's sad because it prevents the spread of disease, but because it's a major human rights violation.

Except it's not, and opinions like these are exactly why the notion of Human Rights needs to be thrown into the fucking trash heap with extreme prejudice.

Ok, since "life, liberty and happiness" are bullshit the Army guns you down on the street at the slightest suspicion of you having any kind of infectious disease. Hf.

[Thermodolia]

And people wonder why I want to effectively shutdown the borders/quarantine/implement martial law

I'm assuming you're in America
But you do realise that as of today, there are only 6 confirmed cases in America?
Not trying to sugarcoat the rest of the world and China, they're having a hard time indeed. So is America.
But martial law, as one poster noted before me, is a last resort, and is far, far, far away from being implemented in the US.
And efforts are already being put to stop the transmission as much as possible. It's not like the coronavirus is planning to go to America in one night en masse.

Martial law would allow the containment of any individual who might be suspected of having the virus. Implementing martial law after the virus has 5,000+ cases in your nation is equivalent to shutting the barn door after the horse has left

[Northern Davincia]

Sadly, governments are doing a lot of 'quarantine,' i.e. locking innocent people up for health reasons.

I'm not saying it's sad because it prevents the spread of disease, but because it's a major human rights violation.

Except it's not, and opinions like these are exactly why the notion of Human Rights needs to be thrown into the fucking trash heap with extreme prejudice.

Natural rights are the superior concept.

[Thermodolia]

Except it's not, and opinions like these are exactly why the notion of Human Rights needs to be thrown into the fucking trash heap with extreme prejudice.

Ok, since "life, liberty and happiness" are bullshit the Army guns you down on the street at the slightest suspicion of you having any kind of infectious disease. Hf.

And what no quarantine of infected people is any better?

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Ok, since "life, liberty and happiness" are bullshit the Army guns you down on the street at the slightest suspicion of you having any kind of infectious disease. Hf.

And what no quarantine of infected people is any better?

I didn't know you volunteered to be gunned down on the street and have your body and all your things incinerated whenever you should acquire influenza.

[Tinhampton]

This thread was previously entitled "New coronavirus in China."

A spate of sporting events scheduled in China for approximately Eastertime have been called off: Blue Bay Tour, golf; China Open, snooker; the entire football season; World Athletics Championship moved to 2021; GB women's basketball Olympic qualifiers moved to Serbia.

[Novus America]

“Singapore and Mongolia will bar entries from China.
Singapore on Friday announced a sweeping ban on Chinese visitors and other foreigners who had been to China in the past 14 days, in an escalation of travel restrictions by the Southeast Asian transportation hub.”
Why have we not done this already? That bothers me. We need to do this asap.

Plus we should probably cancel most non emergency leave and call up reservists for military personnel in medical and NBC specialties, get out hospital ships full crewed (they are mostly crewed by reservists).

I do not into the doomer panic, but these steps should still be taken as a precaution.

Why haven’t we done this? Because there are people who think everything is fine and nothing bad is gonna happen

I do not know. The steps I propose are not extreme, just good precautions.

I hope for the best, but still we have to have preparations in case it ends up worse than we thought. And proactive measures while the numbers are still controllable here.

[The New California Republic]

This thread was previously entitled "New coronavirus in China."

Yeah I asked the OP if it could be changed, because it's no longer isolated to China.

[Lanorth]

Well, at least the first coronavirus victim in Canada was discharged. That is some good news.

[The New California Republic]

Well, at least the first coronavirus victim in Canada was discharged. That is some good news.

If the person that catches it is generally in good health, is isolated from others and is kept well fed and hydrated then the prognosis is very good. The problem is that fatalities result in people with existing health problems, which is a significant portion of the population.

[Bromagia]

People are overreacting on this virus. This virus is less lethal than SARS in 2003.

It’s not. The Chinese have been deliberately obscuring the numbers. There are way more dead than the official numbers.

Source? And it better not be that Yahoo article that's 90% speculation based on unproven claims from total randos.

[Bloodshade]

Uh, so looks like the Coronavirus has spread to the UAE and there are 4 cases of it confirmed apparently..

[Seangoli]

Fuck. That's what I was worried about.

And people wonder why I want to effectively shutdown the borders/quarantine/implement martial law

Martial Law is wholly unnecessary. Restrict travel to and from China, and other countries in the region, certainly. There is no current need to enact martial law, however.

[Seangoli]

It’s not. The Chinese have been deliberately obscuring the numbers. There are way more dead than the official numbers.

Source? And it better not be that Yahoo article that's 90% speculation based on unproven claims from total randos.

China has a funky way of reporting illness deaths. They report a ludicrously low influenza mortality rate because they don't include people who die from complications from the flu (such as developing pneumonia). They only count people who directly from the symptom s of the disease.