The 2019-2020 Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Bombadil]

Wuhan, which probably has the closer to reality numbers, records a higher fatality rate, suggesting it might be higher than currently believed..

Unexpectedly, Wuhan, the provincial capital city where the virus first emerged, registerd a fatality rate of 4.06 per cent, came in second. It was topped by Tianmen, a nearby city, which has a death rate of 5.08 per cent, Caixin Global reported on Sunday (Feb 9).

[Valentine Z]

So... a few days back, Singapore escalated the DORSCON (Disease Outbreak Response System Condition) to Orange.

It is only the second time Singapore has activated code orange. The first was for swine flu (H1N1) in 2009. The coding system was set up after Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) in 2003. The outbreak then would also have been orange, had the classification existed.

So err.... we are not that completely boned, and I have to admit, some people are so kan cheong (paranoid and overly nervous) as to stock up on everything, and I mean everything. Rice packets, drinks, instant noodles, etc, etc.

Sure, my family and I have stocked up a few packets of rice and eggs for this, but that's just that! We are actually pretty normal folks with this sort of thing and we just take normal precautions, but the fact that people are buying everything and queuing for hours in supermarkets, means that if you are just one normal dude like me who wants to grab some snacks at the nearby market, you are shit out of luck.

So, it was quite a Domino Effect that I honestly would love to see it gone ASAP. Stocking maybe 3-4 packs of rice, along with a carton of eggs or so, and maybe a soap bottle or two, that is fine. But to buy like TWO to THREE shopping carts full of stuff? What the hell, man....

-----

On another topic of schools, I did my studies from home today because both my lessons got virtualized. The measure now is that if the class has more than 50 people, you will have to virtualize it. And also to minimise inter-school (even intra-school) activities and competitions.

[Lost Memories]

Coronavirus trying hard to beat Spanish Flu on the Plague, Inc. leaderboard.

The deaths caused by the Spanish flu are an order of magnitude (or several, I haven't checked) greater than that of this virus, and again there were exceptional circumstances that lead to the spread of the Spanish flu and also it was 100 years ago.

I saw that someone tried to argue that last point by saying that, somehow, hygiene is still as bad in developed nations as it was 100 years ago but that is simply untrue. Like I don't know how to tell you this, but 100 years ago the entire concept of a virus was new and sanitation is self-evidently nowhere near comparable to today.

The hysterics over this, I mean really.

You should inform yourself more before talking
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALQTdCYGISw

As weird as it is to see it empty, the streets of China look remarkably first world.

Had the same impression, they looked like the suburbs of any european city.
Just imagine also the quality of the air right now, without all the traffic and apparently industrial complex shut down (at least in Wuhan).

[Lost Memories]

Wuhan, which probably has the closer to reality numbers, records a higher fatality rate, suggesting it might be higher than currently believed..

Unexpectedly, Wuhan, the provincial capital city where the virus first emerged, registerd a fatality rate of 4.06 per cent, came in second. It was topped by Tianmen, a nearby city, which has a death rate of 5.08 per cent, Caixin Global reported on Sunday (Feb 9).

With any research coming out, making claims about mortality, be very wary of how many of their study cases are still hospitalized.

There was a recent (unreviewed) study released which had 1099 study cases, which claimed a mortality of 1.3%, but of those cases 1029 were all still hospitalized, only 9 recovered, 15 died, 55 discharged(??not recovered but discharged?).
By their own logic, if the mortality rate is 1.3%, then the recovery rate is 0.8%
Hospitalized cases can't be used for mortality calculations, the only conclusive data they had was 9 recovered(+55 discharged?) and 15 dead.

Same for many other "studies" coming out lately, they almost never mention in their summaries how many of their study cases were actually concluded, you have to read the full article for that crucial information.
Ignoring that information makes for misleading results and conclusions.

[Novus America]

Which still leaves third world nations.

It's not been sighted in significant numbers in any country with poor healthcare. Besides, it's almost like there's an international organization that could easily help in those cases.

Healthcare in the PRC is not very good, unless you are rich.

And just because it has not happened yet does not mean it is not a potential problem.

I agree we should not panic, but we should not downplay it and do nothing (which caused the problem in the first place!).

And WHO? The corrupt mess they are will be very helpful either.

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

So... a few days back, Singapore escalated the DORSCON (Disease Outbreak Response System Condition) to Orange.

It is only the second time Singapore has activated code orange. The first was for swine flu (H1N1) in 2009. The coding system was set up after Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) in 2003. The outbreak then would also have been orange, had the classification existed.

So err.... we are not that completely boned, and I have to admit, some people are so kan cheong (paranoid and overly nervous) as to stock up on everything, and I mean everything. Rice packets, drinks, instant noodles, etc, etc.

Sure, my family and I have stocked up a few packets of rice and eggs for this, but that's just that! We are actually pretty normal folks with this sort of thing and we just take normal precautions, but the fact that people are buying everything and queuing for hours in supermarkets, means that if you are just one normal dude like me who wants to grab some snacks at the nearby market, you are shit out of luck.

So, it was quite a Domino Effect that I honestly would love to see it gone ASAP. Stocking maybe 3-4 packs of rice, along with a carton of eggs or so, and maybe a soap bottle or two, that is fine. But to buy like TWO to THREE shopping carts full of stuff? What the hell, man....

-----

On another topic of schools, I did my studies from home today because both my lessons got virtualized. The measure now is that if the class has more than 50 people, you will have to virtualize it. And also to minimise inter-school (even intra-school) activities and competitions.

Sometimes people have been rather crazy about stuff like this, siao is the term for crazy in Singlish, right? (Yes, I had sort of lessons on Singlish while I was there on a trip) Here in the Philippines, the moment any Chinese person clears their throat audibly or coughs, people begin going at least 5 metres away from him/her/them. A friend of mine experienced it just this weekend.

Another friend's family went ahead and bought three whole packs of N95. She sort of has reason because family works at a hospital with cases under investigation.

[Valentine Z]

Sometimes people have been rather crazy about stuff like this, siao is the term for crazy in Singlish, right? (Yes, I had sort of lessons on Singlish while I was there on a trip) Here in the Philippines, the moment any Chinese person clears their throat audibly or coughs, people begin going at least 5 metres away from him/her/them. A friend of mine experienced it just this weekend.

Another friend's family went ahead and bought three whole packs of N95. She sort of has reason because family works at a hospital with cases under investigation.

Yep, "You siao arh!" basically means "You crazy man, eh?" / "Are you crazy?"... along perhaps other possible phrases.

Ahh yup! Just cough a little to clear the queue ahead. You didn't hear this from me!

Oh that, I understand. Sometimes, you need maybe 20-30 masks to keep it to yourself and your family, because surgical masks and N95 masks can go off. For N95, we have maybe 10-15 of them because they are a little on the heavier side. For surgical masks, it's good to have maybe 40-50 of them for a year in case of things like this. What I could not stand, however... are people that profited off from this. They made USD 100+ or even more selling these things because they bought all of them, and then have the gall to demand at a higher markup.

That's why if you go to a store now, they will only let you buy one box (25-50 surgical masks per box).

[A m e n r i a]

The deaths caused by the Spanish flu are an order of magnitude (or several, I haven't checked) greater than that of this virus, and again there were exceptional circumstances that lead to the spread of the Spanish flu and also it was 100 years ago.

I saw that someone tried to argue that last point by saying that, somehow, hygiene is still as bad in developed nations as it was 100 years ago but that is simply untrue. Like I don't know how to tell you this, but 100 years ago the entire concept of a virus was new and sanitation is self-evidently nowhere near comparable to today.

The hysterics over this, I mean really.

You should inform yourself more before talking
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALQTdCYGISw

As weird as it is to see it empty, the streets of China look remarkably first world.

Had the same impression, they looked like the suburbs of any european city.
Just imagine also the quality of the air right now, without all the traffic and apparently industrial complex hut down (at least in Wuhan).

Streets in Shandong are empty too. Everyone's too scared to go out, and even if they do, there's nothing to do.

[New Visayan Islands]

So... a few days back, Singapore escalated the DORSCON (Disease Outbreak Response System Condition) to Orange.


So err.... we are not that completely boned, and I have to admit, some people are so kan cheong (paranoid and overly nervous) as to stock up on everything, and I mean everything. Rice packets, drinks, instant noodles, etc, etc.

Sure, my family and I have stocked up a few packets of rice and eggs for this, but that's just that! We are actually pretty normal folks with this sort of thing and we just take normal precautions, but the fact that people are buying everything and queuing for hours in supermarkets, means that if you are just one normal dude like me who wants to grab some snacks at the nearby market, you are shit out of luck.

So, it was quite a Domino Effect that I honestly would love to see it gone ASAP. Stocking maybe 3-4 packs of rice, along with a carton of eggs or so, and maybe a soap bottle or two, that is fine. But to buy like TWO to THREE shopping carts full of stuff? What the hell, man....

-----

On another topic of schools, I did my studies from home today because both my lessons got virtualized. The measure now is that if the class has more than 50 people, you will have to virtualize it. And also to minimise inter-school (even intra-school) activities and competitions.

Sometimes people have been rather crazy about stuff like this, siao is the term for crazy in Singlish, right? (Yes, I had sort of lessons on Singlish while I was there on a trip) Here in the Philippines, the moment any Chinese person clears their throat audibly or coughs, people begin going at least 5 metres away from him/her/them. A friend of mine experienced it just this weekend.

Another friend's family went ahead and bought three whole packs of N95. She sort of has reason because family works at a hospital with cases under investigation.

Lucky her, I'm considering an industrial-grade respirator if it comes to that.

[The New California Republic]

There are now 8 cases in the UK.

[Lost Memories]

A new study has been released by the Imperial College London, the study focuses on estimation of the mortality rate, and gives an overview of the current limits of estimations, given the shortage of reliable informations, by defining ranges of confidence around estimates.


The estimation on the death rate inside Hubei China (18% mortality (95% credible interval: 11-81%)) are based on their reported numbers, no further estimates were made on under reported deaths from china.
Mortality estimation outside mainland china: 1.2% (95% confidence interval: 0.9%-26%)
They also report estimates of mean delay for recovery and death since onset of sympthoms, to be similar, about 22.2days (95%, 18-83 days range)

[Dogmeat]

It's not been sighted in significant numbers in any country with poor healthcare. Besides, it's almost like there's an international organization that could easily help in those cases.

Healthcare in the PRC is not very good, unless you are rich.

And just because it has not happened yet does not mean it is not a potential problem.

I agree we should not panic, but we should not downplay it and do nothing (which caused the problem in the first place!).

And WHO? The corrupt mess they are will be very helpful either.

If the doctors of WHO can fight the Daleks, they can fight a coronavirus.

[The World Capitalist Confederation]

Healthcare in the PRC is not very good, unless you are rich.

And just because it has not happened yet does not mean it is not a potential problem.

I agree we should not panic, but we should not downplay it and do nothing (which caused the problem in the first place!).

And WHO? The corrupt mess they are will be very helpful either.

If the doctors of WHO can fight the Daleks, they can fight a coronavirus.

Dalek-Human transmission of 2019-nCov reported.

[Fartsniffage]

Healthcare in the PRC is not very good, unless you are rich.

And just because it has not happened yet does not mean it is not a potential problem.

I agree we should not panic, but we should not downplay it and do nothing (which caused the problem in the first place!).

And WHO? The corrupt mess they are will be very helpful either.

If the doctors of WHO can fight the Daleks, they can fight a coronavirus.

[Zixu]

Report from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China

mainland China

	until Feb. 10	during Feb. 10
confirmed	42638	+2478 (2097 from Hubei)
cured	3996	+716 (427 from Hubei)
deaths	1016	+108 (103 from Hubei)
existing	37626
severe	7333
suspected	21675
close contacts	187728

Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan

	confirmed	cured	deaths
Hong Kong	42	0	1
Macau	10	1	0
Taiwan	18	1	0

[Castelia]

-snip-

I was about to believe those numbers until I saw that it was the PRC that released the info.

I'd be more willing to believe the crazies over at 4chan more than the PRC these days. Until this information has been verified by an independent third-party source (and I don't mean the WHO, considering how corrupt those people are), I'm not going to believe it's that low.

[Galloism]

A new study has been released by the Imperial College London, the study focuses on estimation of the mortality rate, and gives an overview of the current limits of estimations, given the shortage of reliable informations, by defining ranges of confidence around estimates.
(Image)

The estimation on the death rate inside Hubei China (18% mortality (95% credible interval: 11-81%)) are based on their reported numbers, no further estimates were made on under reported deaths from china.
Mortality estimation outside mainland china: 1.2% (95% confidence interval: 0.9%-26%)
They also report estimates of mean delay for recovery and death since onset of sympthoms, to be similar, about 22.2days (95%, 18-83 days range)

That’s a crazy wide confidence interval.

[Fartsniffage]

A new study has been released by the Imperial College London, the study focuses on estimation of the mortality rate, and gives an overview of the current limits of estimations, given the shortage of reliable informations, by defining ranges of confidence around estimates.
(Image)

The estimation on the death rate inside Hubei China (18% mortality (95% credible interval: 11-81%)) are based on their reported numbers, no further estimates were made on under reported deaths from china.
Mortality estimation outside mainland china: 1.2% (95% confidence interval: 0.9%-26%)
They also report estimates of mean delay for recovery and death since onset of sympthoms, to be similar, about 22.2days (95%, 18-83 days range)

That’s a crazy wide confidence interval.

It's what you get when using numbers from China.

[Senkaku]

Wuhan, which probably has the closer to reality numbers, records a higher fatality rate, suggesting it might be higher than currently believed..

Unexpectedly, Wuhan, the provincial capital city where the virus first emerged, registerd a fatality rate of 4.06 per cent, came in second. It was topped by Tianmen, a nearby city, which has a death rate of 5.08 per cent, Caixin Global reported on Sunday (Feb 9).

Wuhan is also so overwhelmed with cases that it's still hard to know how accurate those numbers are imo

[Tuthina]

-snip-

I was about to believe those numbers until I saw that it was the PRC that released the info.

I'd be more willing to believe the crazies over at 4chan more than the PRC these days. Until this information has been verified by an independent third-party source (and I don't mean the WHO, considering how corrupt those people are), I'm not going to believe it's that low.

On one hand, Hong Kong's reported cases are accurate (probably because the numbers are public to begin with); on the other hand, case numbers are increasing quite fast to the point it already becomes outdated by the time PRC releases it, with Hong Kong currently having 47 confirmed case, and likely will exceed 50 by midnight.

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

Sometimes people have been rather crazy about stuff like this, siao is the term for crazy in Singlish, right? (Yes, I had sort of lessons on Singlish while I was there on a trip) Here in the Philippines, the moment any Chinese person clears their throat audibly or coughs, people begin going at least 5 metres away from him/her/them. A friend of mine experienced it just this weekend.

Another friend's family went ahead and bought three whole packs of N95. She sort of has reason because family works at a hospital with cases under investigation.

Yep, "You siao arh!" basically means "You crazy man, eh?" / "Are you crazy?"... along perhaps other possible phrases.

Ahh yup! Just cough a little to clear the queue ahead. You didn't hear this from me!

Oh that, I understand. Sometimes, you need maybe 20-30 masks to keep it to yourself and your family, because surgical masks and N95 masks can go off. For N95, we have maybe 10-15 of them because they are a little on the heavier side. For surgical masks, it's good to have maybe 40-50 of them for a year in case of things like this. What I could not stand, however... are people that profited off from this. They made USD 100+ or even more selling these things because they bought all of them, and then have the gall to demand at a higher markup.

That's why if you go to a store now, they will only let you buy one box (25-50 surgical masks per box).

Pretty handy tip for lining up ngl. Really fun to scare the living hecc of people with one of the easiest sounds to make lmao.

I agree, however, one of my friend’s family members works in a hospital near San Lazaro, where the first coronavirus death outside the PRC was recorded. That hospital also has quite a few cases under investigation. About the price racket some greedy people are trying to do, it’s really stupid. Imagine profiteering of something that can kill you. I mean it’s been done in the past, but definitely a practice that’s only resurfaced here because of the paranoia.

Sometimes people have been rather crazy about stuff like this, siao is the term for crazy in Singlish, right? (Yes, I had sort of lessons on Singlish while I was there on a trip) Here in the Philippines, the moment any Chinese person clears their throat audibly or coughs, people begin going at least 5 metres away from him/her/them. A friend of mine experienced it just this weekend.

Another friend's family went ahead and bought three whole packs of N95. She sort of has reason because family works at a hospital with cases under investigation.

Lucky her, I'm considering an industrial-grade respirator if it comes to that.

Yeah, makes sense. If you’re facing something as threatening as that, may as well prepare as much as you can.

[Pilipinas and Malaya]

Separating this so that it looks less cluttered. So this is the number I got earlier while browsing the news:

42,600 people are infected, while 3,000 have been cured. 1,016 people are reported dead however.

[Valentian Elysium]

It seems as though cases are starting to drop in China.

But the number of new infections nationally was down almost 20% from the day before, from 3,062 to 2,478.

Hubei's health commission confirmed 2,097 new cases in the province on Monday, down from 2,618 the previous day.

[Phoenicaea]

^i suggest: we have two kind of causes for discrepancies of cases you see. beforehand, scientific causes, regarding to features of the agent, medicine.

i would say secondarely, organization causes, sample given lazarettes in fleu province and not proper hospitals, eccetera eccetera.

what i wished to say? don t forget scientific discourse comes before.

[Lost Memories]

A new study has been released by the Imperial College London, the study focuses on estimation of the mortality rate, and gives an overview of the current limits of estimations, given the shortage of reliable informations, by defining ranges of confidence around estimates.
(Image)

The estimation on the death rate inside Hubei China (18% mortality (95% credible interval: 11-81%)) are based on their reported numbers, no further estimates were made on under reported deaths from china.
Mortality estimation outside mainland china: 1.2% (95% confidence interval: 0.9%-26%)
They also report estimates of mean delay for recovery and death since onset of sympthoms, to be similar, about 22.2days (95%, 18-83 days range)

That’s a crazy wide confidence interval.

That's just show how wide is the uncertainty, too little reliable informations released, even with apparently tens of thousands confirmed cases in china, over 1000 deaths, 4000 recovered, apparently no reliable information have been released about all those cases.
So the estimates have too little data to be based on.

It also shows that whichever study came out stating a clear cut mortality rate (2% for example) was full of shit, or they had informations kept away from public view. (or the studies had also stated confidence intervals, which were ignored by the media to make a bigger headline)