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The 2019-2020 Coronavirus outbreak thread

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Pilipinas and Malaya
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1936
Founded: Jun 23, 2017
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Pilipinas and Malaya » Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:09 am

Lost Memories wrote:A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)

The study was done by CMMID (Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases) at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
They also built up a interactive airport screening effectiveness simulator.


The infected in incubation time being hard to detect at airports was already known, if this study will get reviewed as valid it could make it more clear how much containment measures need to work in advance.
With an incubation time of 6 days the virus is 6 days ahead of any containment based on sympthoms.


Oh no, that makes it much harder to actually and effectively quarantine anyone really.
Federative States of Pilipinas and Malaya
Member of Europe

Hello there, welcome to my thoughts.
I also control puppets in Thaecia and Forest, so you may know me by those puppets.
Yes, my nation does represent a good chunk of my views, deal with it.
I still like K-Pop, no, I am not one of those very annoying stans. Anyways, please watch Day6.
Soups are among my favourite kinds of food.
Am too lazy to deal with a bunch of canon stuff, expect them to be completed never.
Civ 6's Frontier Pass seems very exciting, maybe we'll finally get a Filipino civ?

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The New California Republic
Post Czar
 
Posts: 33918
Founded: Jun 06, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The New California Republic » Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:24 am

Lost Memories wrote:A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)


It correlates with what I have been saying for the past several days, that current screening measures are woefully ineffective as a method of containment. When a containment method is worse than a coin toss in terms of likelihood of detection, then more radical screening is desperately needed.
Last edited by Sigmund Freud on Sat Sep 23, 1939 2:23 am, edited 999 times in total.

The Irradiated Wasteland of The New California Republic: depicting the expanded NCR, several years after the total victory over Caesar's Legion, and the annexation of New Vegas and its surrounding areas.

White-collared conservatives flashing down the street
Pointing their plastic finger at me
They're hoping soon, my kind will drop and die
But I'm going to wave my freak flag high
Wave on, wave on
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

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Pilipinas and Malaya
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1936
Founded: Jun 23, 2017
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Pilipinas and Malaya » Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:27 am

The New California Republic wrote:
Lost Memories wrote:A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)


It correlates with what I have been saying for the past several days, that current screening measures are woefully ineffective as a method of containment. When a containment method is worse than a coin toss in terms of likelihood of detection, then more radical screening is desperately needed.


Better pull a Japan and seal off the country temporarily.
Federative States of Pilipinas and Malaya
Member of Europe

Hello there, welcome to my thoughts.
I also control puppets in Thaecia and Forest, so you may know me by those puppets.
Yes, my nation does represent a good chunk of my views, deal with it.
I still like K-Pop, no, I am not one of those very annoying stans. Anyways, please watch Day6.
Soups are among my favourite kinds of food.
Am too lazy to deal with a bunch of canon stuff, expect them to be completed never.
Civ 6's Frontier Pass seems very exciting, maybe we'll finally get a Filipino civ?

User avatar
Novus America
Post Czar
 
Posts: 36800
Founded: Jun 02, 2014
Ex-Nation

Postby Novus America » Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:32 am

The New California Republic wrote:
Lost Memories wrote:A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)


It correlates with what I have been saying for the past several days, that current screening measures are woefully ineffective as a method of containment. When a containment method is worse than a coin toss in terms of likelihood of detection, then more radical screening is desperately needed.


Well we cannot use symptom based screenings alone.
We need to suspend all nonessential, non governmental travel with the PRC (except for returning US nationals) and even returning US nationals subject to more intense screening, namely PCR blood tests plus a two week observation period/qurantine during which they would not be allowed to work outside of telework or allowed to use public transport.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. I support what is good for the country, which means I cannot support either party.

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Thermodolia
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 65067
Founded: Oct 07, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Thermodolia » Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:55 am

Lost Memories wrote:A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)

The study was done by CMMID (Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases) at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
They also built up a interactive airport screening effectiveness simulator.


The infected in incubation time being hard to detect at airports was already known, if this study will get reviewed as valid it could make it more clear how much containment measures need to work in advance.
With an incubation time of 6 days the virus is 6 days ahead of any containment based on sympthoms.

Time to require at least 1 week of quarantine for anyone coming from asia
Male, Titoist cultural nationalist, lives somewhere in the Deep South, give me any good Irish, Canadian, or Scottish whiskey and I will be your friend for life. I'm GAY! US Military Veteran
I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
>Xovland: I keep getting ads for printer ink. Sometimes, when you get that feeling down there, you have to look at some steamy printer pictures.
Click for Da Funies
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Ambassadors to the WA: Senior Eve Šanœ, Junior Jon Æthr

RIP Dya

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Pilipinas and Malaya
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1936
Founded: Jun 23, 2017
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Pilipinas and Malaya » Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:56 am

Thermodolia wrote:
Lost Memories wrote:A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)

The study was done by CMMID (Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases) at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
They also built up a interactive airport screening effectiveness simulator.


The infected in incubation time being hard to detect at airports was already known, if this study will get reviewed as valid it could make it more clear how much containment measures need to work in advance.
With an incubation time of 6 days the virus is 6 days ahead of any containment based on sympthoms.

Time to require at least 1 week of quarantine for anyone coming from asia


Ouch. That’s going to hurt way too much. China only will suffice.
Federative States of Pilipinas and Malaya
Member of Europe

Hello there, welcome to my thoughts.
I also control puppets in Thaecia and Forest, so you may know me by those puppets.
Yes, my nation does represent a good chunk of my views, deal with it.
I still like K-Pop, no, I am not one of those very annoying stans. Anyways, please watch Day6.
Soups are among my favourite kinds of food.
Am too lazy to deal with a bunch of canon stuff, expect them to be completed never.
Civ 6's Frontier Pass seems very exciting, maybe we'll finally get a Filipino civ?

User avatar
Imperial Joseon
Minister
 
Posts: 2920
Founded: Dec 13, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Imperial Joseon » Thu Jan 30, 2020 6:46 am

Thermodolia wrote:
Lost Memories wrote:A math based study has estimated the effectiveness of airports screening (using current thermal scans and other measures) to be failing to detect 63% of the infected travelers. (not peer reviewed yet, yet to be officially released)

The study was done by CMMID (Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases) at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
They also built up a interactive airport screening effectiveness simulator.


The infected in incubation time being hard to detect at airports was already known, if this study will get reviewed as valid it could make it more clear how much containment measures need to work in advance.
With an incubation time of 6 days the virus is 6 days ahead of any containment based on sympthoms.

Time to require at least 1 week of quarantine for anyone coming from asia


By the way, Mongolians and North Koreans aren't affected, because they completely bar foreigners from coming into their nations.
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Trollgaard
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9623
Founded: Mar 01, 2007
Ex-Nation

Postby Trollgaard » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:11 am

Imperial Joseon wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:Time to require at least 1 week of quarantine for anyone coming from asia


By the way, Mongolians and North Koreans aren't affected, because they completely bar foreigners from coming into their nations.



Mongolia doesn't...

User avatar
Satuga
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1651
Founded: Mar 27, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Satuga » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:39 am

Imperial Joseon wrote:[

By the way, Mongolians and North Koreans aren't affected, because they completely bar foreigners from coming into their nations.

Well NK is suffering from mass malnutrition and other diseases from improper farming and such. So I think it's a fair trade lmao.
Alt-Acc: Kronotek.
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I much prefer uniforms, soldiers, clear lines of authority, order.
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(Image)


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Pilipinas and Malaya
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1936
Founded: Jun 23, 2017
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Pilipinas and Malaya » Thu Jan 30, 2020 7:58 am

Trollgaard wrote:
Imperial Joseon wrote:
By the way, Mongolians and North Koreans aren't affected, because they completely bar foreigners from coming into their nations.



Mongolia doesn't...


They only preemptively closed their borders with China to prevent infection.
Federative States of Pilipinas and Malaya
Member of Europe

Hello there, welcome to my thoughts.
I also control puppets in Thaecia and Forest, so you may know me by those puppets.
Yes, my nation does represent a good chunk of my views, deal with it.
I still like K-Pop, no, I am not one of those very annoying stans. Anyways, please watch Day6.
Soups are among my favourite kinds of food.
Am too lazy to deal with a bunch of canon stuff, expect them to be completed never.
Civ 6's Frontier Pass seems very exciting, maybe we'll finally get a Filipino civ?

User avatar
Dar es Saalam
Political Columnist
 
Posts: 5
Founded: Aug 18, 2004
Capitalist Paradise

Postby Dar es Saalam » Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:24 am

Lets hope the countermeasures developed for SARS and MERS work on this variant as well.

China really needs to address the overcrowding and resulting sanitation nightmares. Maybe the world can send them the bill for this one? I am sure it would erase some trade deficits!

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New Visayan Islands
Game Moderator
 
Posts: 5214
Founded: Jan 31, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby New Visayan Islands » Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:27 am

Pilipinas and Malaya wrote:
Trollgaard wrote:

Mongolia doesn't...


They only preemptively closed their borders with China to prevent infection.

And Russia?
Joined the ranks of Moderation in the wee hours of the morning of September 19th, AD 2020.
Formally inducted to Game Moderation in the afternoon of March 23rd, AD 2021.
My TGs are NOT for Mod Stuff.

For details on the man behind NVI, click here.

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The New California Republic
Post Czar
 
Posts: 33918
Founded: Jun 06, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The New California Republic » Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:32 am

Dar es Saalam wrote:Lets hope the countermeasures developed for SARS and MERS work on this variant as well.

Such as? If you are referring to heat screenings at transport hubs then we were literally just talking about how they are ineffective against Corona, to the extent that a coin toss would be better at picking infected people out of a crowd.
Last edited by Sigmund Freud on Sat Sep 23, 1939 2:23 am, edited 999 times in total.

The Irradiated Wasteland of The New California Republic: depicting the expanded NCR, several years after the total victory over Caesar's Legion, and the annexation of New Vegas and its surrounding areas.

White-collared conservatives flashing down the street
Pointing their plastic finger at me
They're hoping soon, my kind will drop and die
But I'm going to wave my freak flag high
Wave on, wave on
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

User avatar
Dogmeat
Minister
 
Posts: 2924
Founded: Apr 01, 2018
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Dogmeat » Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:36 am

New Visayan Islands wrote:
Pilipinas and Malaya wrote:
They only preemptively closed their borders with China to prevent infection.

And Russia?

When Russia starts being a hotbed of infection, then yes. But probably not worth the effort until then.
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Lord Dominator
Negotiator
 
Posts: 6551
Founded: Dec 22, 2016
Corporate Police State

Postby Lord Dominator » Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:41 am

Image


Edit: and yes, for thematic (and strategic) reasons, I did start it in China, and had symptoms by the time it started spreading (roughly).
Last edited by Lord Dominator on Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Thermodolia
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 65067
Founded: Oct 07, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Thermodolia » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:07 am

New Visayan Islands wrote:
Pilipinas and Malaya wrote:
They only preemptively closed their borders with China to prevent infection.

And Russia?

Siberia is too sparsely populated for the virus to do anything
Male, Titoist cultural nationalist, lives somewhere in the Deep South, give me any good Irish, Canadian, or Scottish whiskey and I will be your friend for life. I'm GAY! US Military Veteran
I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
>Xovland: I keep getting ads for printer ink. Sometimes, when you get that feeling down there, you have to look at some steamy printer pictures.
Click for Da Funies
Click Here for RP Info Embassy Program
Ambassadors to the WA: Senior Eve Šanœ, Junior Jon Æthr

RIP Dya

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Valentian Elysium
Chargé d'Affaires
 
Posts: 355
Founded: Jul 13, 2019
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Valentian Elysium » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:12 am

Lord Dominator wrote:

Edit: and yes, for thematic (and strategic) reasons, I did start it in China, and had symptoms by the time it started spreading (roughly).

Blimey, it even got Greenland
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Lord Dominator
Negotiator
 
Posts: 6551
Founded: Dec 22, 2016
Corporate Police State

Postby Lord Dominator » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:46 am

Valentian Elysium wrote:
Lord Dominator wrote:

Edit: and yes, for thematic (and strategic) reasons, I did start it in China, and had symptoms by the time it started spreading (roughly).

Blimey, it even got Greenland

Greenland was easy, Madagascar (and Iceland for some reason) was the problem this run around ;)

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Pacomia
Senator
 
Posts: 4811
Founded: May 23, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Pacomia » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:55 am

First person-to-person transmission in the U.S. reported in Chicago- likely more to come.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51316915

And I thought we were safe. Damn.
This nation is based on (a slightly more extreme version of) my IRL opinions, and I answer issues accordingly.
Current accidental policies: No Sex
Results of political various tests I took meme awesome
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GLORY TO CASCADIA, NUCLEAR ENERGY IS A GOOD THING!
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Major-Tom
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 14766
Founded: Mar 09, 2016
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Major-Tom » Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:58 am

Pacomia wrote:First person-to-person transmission in the U.S. reported in Chicago- likely more to come.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51316915

And I thought we were safe. Damn.


It was a spousal transmission, the issue is that the disease has an R-Naught of about two (for every one infected person, they're likely to infect two others). I don't think this will spiral out of control outside of China, but I could see it infecting a few hundred through the US.

It's a little more infectious than SARS and a little less deadly, SARS was stopped in it's tracks after about 10,000 total infections and 774 deaths if my memory serves me right, so I'm not ready to call this a pandemic in the making.
Last edited by Major-Tom on Thu Jan 30, 2020 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
"We're flawed because we want so much. We're ruined because we get these things and wish for what we had."
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Pacomia
Senator
 
Posts: 4811
Founded: May 23, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Pacomia » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:00 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Pacomia wrote:First person-to-person transmission in the U.S. reported in Chicago- likely more to come.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51316915

And I thought we were safe. Damn.


It was a spousal transmission, the issue is that the disease has an R-Naught of about two (for every one infected person, they're likely to infect two others). I don't think this will spiral out of control outside of China, but I could see it infecting a few hundred through the US.

The infected guy near me is still under isolation at the hospital, hopefully no transmission there. I could see Cali and maybe some eastern states getting a lot of infected, though.
This nation is based on (a slightly more extreme version of) my IRL opinions, and I answer issues accordingly.
Current accidental policies: No Sex
Results of political various tests I took meme awesome
Progressive capitalism gang

GLORY TO CASCADIA, NUCLEAR ENERGY IS A GOOD THING!
This user is a male.

User avatar
Major-Tom
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 14766
Founded: Mar 09, 2016
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Major-Tom » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:02 pm

Pacomia wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
It was a spousal transmission, the issue is that the disease has an R-Naught of about two (for every one infected person, they're likely to infect two others). I don't think this will spiral out of control outside of China, but I could see it infecting a few hundred through the US.

The infected guy near me is still under isolation at the hospital, hopefully no transmission there. I could see Cali and maybe some eastern states getting a lot of infected, though.


We should all be mostly fine. Our government is testing people for the virus on the daily, many of whom are testing negative, others being quarantined as a proper precaution (even if it's unsure if they have it). Point is - there really aren't many people roaming the streets of the US carrying this virus.
"We're flawed because we want so much. We're ruined because we get these things and wish for what we had."
Who is Tom?
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The New California Republic
Post Czar
 
Posts: 33918
Founded: Jun 06, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The New California Republic » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:45 pm

Last edited by Sigmund Freud on Sat Sep 23, 1939 2:23 am, edited 999 times in total.

The Irradiated Wasteland of The New California Republic: depicting the expanded NCR, several years after the total victory over Caesar's Legion, and the annexation of New Vegas and its surrounding areas.

White-collared conservatives flashing down the street
Pointing their plastic finger at me
They're hoping soon, my kind will drop and die
But I'm going to wave my freak flag high
Wave on, wave on
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

User avatar
Thermodolia
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 65067
Founded: Oct 07, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Thermodolia » Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:56 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Pacomia wrote:First person-to-person transmission in the U.S. reported in Chicago- likely more to come.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51316915

And I thought we were safe. Damn.


It was a spousal transmission, the issue is that the disease has an R-Naught of about two (for every one infected person, they're likely to infect two others). I don't think this will spiral out of control outside of China, but I could see it infecting a few hundred through the US.

It's a little more infectious than SARS and a little less deadly, SARS was stopped in it's tracks after about 10,000 total infections and 774 deaths if my memory serves me right, so I'm not ready to call this a pandemic in the making.

The WHO is. They are now declaring a public health emergency
Male, Titoist cultural nationalist, lives somewhere in the Deep South, give me any good Irish, Canadian, or Scottish whiskey and I will be your friend for life. I'm GAY! US Military Veteran
I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
>Xovland: I keep getting ads for printer ink. Sometimes, when you get that feeling down there, you have to look at some steamy printer pictures.
Click for Da Funies
Click Here for RP Info Embassy Program
Ambassadors to the WA: Senior Eve Šanœ, Junior Jon Æthr

RIP Dya

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Lost Memories
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1935
Founded: Nov 29, 2012
Democratic Socialists

Postby Lost Memories » Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:07 pm

The WHO conference has finished seconds ago, the livestream to rewatch it.

Lots of bowing to the "competence", "transparency" and "hard work" of China. It's a bit embarassing to see.
"China did such a great job handling this situation, no one should be worried"
"BUT WE DECLARE EMERGENCY"
"but this isn't a reason to stop trade with China"
basically
http://www.politicaltest.net/test/result/222881/

hmag

pagan american empireLiberalism is a LieWhat is Hell

"The whole is something else than the sum of its parts" -Kurt Koffka

A fox tried to reach some grapes hanging high on the vine, but was unable to.
As he went away, the fox remarked 'Oh, you aren't even ripe yet!'
As such are people who speak disparagingly of things that they cannot attain.
-The Fox and the Grapes

"Dictionaries don't decide what words mean. Prescriptivism is the ultimate form of elitism." -United Muscovite Nations
or subtle illiteracy, or lazy sidetracking. Just fucking follow the context. And ask when in doubt.

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